Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240840 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 340 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from the west today and then move east tonight and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night as weak low pres developing over the Gulf of Maine tracks NE toward the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A brief window of msly fair skies this morn will give way to thickening cldnss across the N with a sct flurries and a chc of sn shwrs this aftn and erly eve across the far N. Meanwhile, partly cldy to perhaps mclr skies are xpctd for Cntrl and Downeast areas. Temps will be on a warming trend with both fcst highs tdy and lows tonight some 5 to 10 deg warmer than ystdy and this current ngt. Winds will slowly become breezy from the SSW later tdy and cont so ovrngt with wind speeds increasing ovr hi trrn later ovrngt as a weak to mdt llvl jet aoa 925mb moves into the Rgn from the W.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Temperatures a bit warmer Saturday as a cold front approaches. Looking for highs ranging from the low 40s far north to the low 50s near the coast. There will be a chance of showers Saturday, and airmass will be warm enough to where any light precipitation that does fall will be rain. Cold front moves through Saturday night, but there`s not a lot of moisture to work with, and any precip totals look to remain under a quarter inch. Snow will become the more common precip type later Saturday night onward, but went with just chance PoPs and minimal precip totals, and any snow accumulation will be quite light. The chance of snow showers late Saturday night through Sunday night will mainly be over Northern Maine rather than Downeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Continued cold into Monday with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. High pressure moves overhead Monday night and east of us Tuesday as the next system approaches. The center of the low pressure looks to pass well north of us in Quebec. The system for us doesn`t look particularly strong, with just a chance of rain and snow. Cold front moves through sometime around Wednesday with cooler air Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system possible around Friday, but again, looks warm enough for mostly rain. Bottom line, although the pattern is fairly active and progressive, no significant snow events in sight. Interestingly, if it doesn`t snow any more than 0.5 inches through the end of the month, it will end up as the least snowy November on record for Caribou. Caribou has had 0.9 inch and the least snowy is 1.5 inches. Interesting, considering it`s actually been colder than normal this month.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd across the TAF sites tdy and tngt, xcpt MVFR intervals of bkn-ovc SC cld cvr xpctd across far Nrn TAF sites such as KCAR and spcly KFVE. SHORT TERM: Saturday through Monday we are looking for generally MVFR over Northern Maine. South of KMLT, it looks generally VFR except for a possible period of MVFR around Saturday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: We lowered the SCA for seas that was in effect for our outer MZs prior to this fcst update in favor for a full SCA for both SSW to SW winds and seas xpctd to begin this eve for all of our waters and cont thru tngt. Went with a blend of WW3 and NWPS for fcst wv hts tdy and tngt with primary wv pds beginning arnd 10 sec tdy then diminishing to 6 sec ovrngt tngt as the shorter SW wind fetch increases with max wind wv hts 6 to 9 ft by erly Sat morn. SHORT TERM: Small craft winds and seas persisting into Saturday, easing below small craft levels late Saturday. Offshore small craft winds developing during the day Sunday, as well as seas to around 5 feet. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night, there is the potential of high end small craft winds and seas to around 10 feet.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...VJN/Foisy Marine...VJN/Foisy

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