Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240709 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 309 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS AM. SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL AT TIMES... SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS

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