Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262221 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 621 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift northeastward tonight into early Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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620 PM Update... The only significant adjustments were to the hrly temps/dewpoints as readings have risen into the 50s w/the exception of the Crown such as Frenchville(FVE) in the upper 40s. Temps look like they will top out where they are and begin to slowly slide back later tonight. 21Z showed stacked low e of NJ slowly lifting n. Satl imagery showed the low filling as it lifts ne. Latest radar loop showed area of rain and drizzle moving n across central and downeast areas w/the area across the Crown lifting into New Brunswick. Daycrew had this handled well w/rain on and off through late evening. Areas of fog and drizzle will be included through the overnight. Previous Discussion... The vertically stacked low of the Mid-Atlantic coast is quickly filling and will gradually lose its identity by Thursday as heights continue to rise in the powerful upper level ridge over the region. The last of the steadier rain will exit the area this evening. This will leave the region in a moist southerly flow under a strong subsidence inversion. The result will be low clouds, fog, and drizzle tonight into the Thursday morning. The unusually high dew points in the 50s will probably lead to widespread fog tonight and consideration will have to be given to a Dense Fog Advisory as the evening progresses. Temperatures will only fall several degrees tonight. Highs on Thursday will be higher than today as the sun slowly lifts the low clouds. The onshore breeze will keep coastal temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach from the west Friday and cross the region Friday Evening. A second cold front will move across the region Saturday. These systems are expected to produce showers on both days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure is then expected to move into the state on Sunday. Intense low pressure will move northward into the great lakes Monday. A warm front extending to the east of this low will cause rain to develop across the area Monday. The rain will continue into Tuesday as well as a cold front moves across New England behind the low and another area of low pressure develops along the cold front. Showers are expected to persist in northern areas into Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR in fog and drizzle can be expected tonight for all terminals. Conditions will slowly lift to IFR Thursday morning...with a few sites reaching low MVFR cigs in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. IFR conditions are possible Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The very stable and humid air moving over the cold waters led to a sizable reduction in model winds and seas. As a result, have downgraded the SCA to an SCA for Hazardous Seas. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS to initialize the wind grids through Saturday then Transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: With sea surface temperature still near 40 degrees F. and air temperature several degrees warmer, winds above boundary layer having a difficult time getting down to the surface. Have initialized the wind field with GFS then manually adjusted winds lower. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System run on forecast wind speeds, however NWPS boundary smaller than area of cold sea surface temperature so boundary wave heights still too high. Will therefore lower NWPS waves 2 feet through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Highest tides of the month will occur over the next several days. The current weather system is producing southeasterly waves, however wind speed in the Gulf of Maine has been reduced due to the relatively cold sea surface temperature. This will also reduce wave heights, so therefore wave runup or beach erosion is not expected at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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