Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 101447 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 947 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and an associated cold front will cross the area tonight into tomorrow morning. High pressure will build in briefly ahead of the next significant low pressure system heading out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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945 am update... All remaining winter weather headlines have been discontinued at this point, as snow continues to diminish this morning. Snowfall reports from across the region thus far indicate that generally 5 to 8 inches of snow had fallen across much of the area as of this morning, except for far northwest Maine where amounts were less. (See latest PNSCAR for a comprehensive list of snowfall totals). Have made minor adjustments to pops/weather grids based on latest latest radar trends. Focus then turns toward the approaching short wave/arctic boundary from the northwest which may set off more snow shower activity later this afternoon and this evening, especially across the northwest. Prev discussion blo... Snow band continues over east-central sections of the CWA in area of greatest frontogenetical forcing. Wl let Winter Wx Advisories ride this morning as accumulating snow continues acrs bulk of the region. Expecting an addn`l 1-3 inches, mainly acrs far ern zones along the NB border but cannot rule out another inch falling along the coast. 00z guidance indicating around 0.15 inches in the far east thru 12z and with snow ratios around 13:1 wl lkly pick up a quick inch or two this mrng bfr band pulls east into Canada. S/wv currently dropping twd Lk Superior wl swing arnd base of upr lvl trof with isold snow showers occurring ovr the far nw zones this aftn. Sfc low in southern Ontario wl head east this aftn and cross into the state late tonight. This may bring another chance of accumulating snow mainly in the higher terrain acrs the far northwest. Cold air advection wl mv in bhnd front shortly bfr daybreak tomorrow morning and with H9 temp dropping between 6-10F from current values expect mins to dip into the single digits acrs the far north while areas to the south of the front wl rmn in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A weak surface low will track through Northern Maine Monday morning, a upper level trough will also move through Monday bringing minor snow accumulations to the area. The surface low and upper trough will move east of the area Monday afternoon. A ridge of higher pressure will briefly build into Maine Monday afternoon, crest over the area Monday night, then build east as another low moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. Tuesday morning the warm front will move into western Maine bringing another round of snow to the area. Tuesday afternoon a secondary low will develop near Cape Cod and will track northeast into the Bay of Fundy by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended models are in good general agreement at the start of the period. An upper low in northern Quebec will influence the weather for the area through the extended period of the forecast. The upper low will swing troughs through our area with 12 to 18 hours between them. The period will start with a low over the Eastern Great Lakes, with a frontal system extending east across northern Maine, then south along Eastern Maine into the North Atlantic. There will be a secondary low in the Gulf of Maine. GFS puts it near the mouth of the Bay of Fundy, the ECMWF south of Bar Harbor. Wednesday morning both models move this low north into Northern New Brunswick, or the Mouth of the St Lawrence. Both models indicate new lows forming along the front south of central Nova Scotia. The upper low will track across the state of Maine through the day Wednesday, finally clearing NE Maine early Thursday afternoon. A ridge of higher pressure will briefly build in ahead of the next low moving east across the Eastern Great lakes. The GFS moves the next front into NW Maine Friday morning, the ECMWF early Friday afternoon. After this point in the forecast the extended models no longer agree on timing of the troughs or lows that will spin up, but both continue them on a regular interval. Through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR expected in the north until 15z this morning before improving to MVFR in light snow showers. VFR expected after 18z with exception of FVE possibly seeing MVFR cigs move in toward end of TAF valid time as low pressure approaches from the west. BGR and BHB will likely be predominant VFR next 24 hours, though may briefly see MVFR or even IFR restrictions off and on for the first couple of hours this morning in -shsn. SHORT TERM: Active weather with 12 to 18 hr breaks between storms will persist through the period. Lower MVFR to IFR conditions in light snow across are all sites at the start of the period with an upper level trough moving through the area. The trough will move east of the area Monday afternoon, and a ridge of higher pressure will build in. Skies becoming clear at all sites by early evening Monday. Increasing clouds after midnight with upper MVFR condition as a warm front approaches from the west by early morning. IFR conditions in snow by mid morning. IFR conditions will persist through early Wednesday morning. VFR condition will return to BHB and BGR, with other sites remaining MVFR with scattered snowshowers Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR condition in snowshowers will affect the whole area by Wednesday afternoon as the upper low moves through the state. VFR condition will return Thursday afternoon as a ridge of higher pressure briefly builds into the area. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be above small craft criteria through the near term. Southerly swell will bring seas to 5 to 9 feet this morning. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for winds and or seas will be in effect through much of the short term portion of the forecast. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Norton Marine...Duda/Farrar/Norton

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