Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 291808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
208 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
The high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday into
Sunday as low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models are in good agreement through the period. A high
pressure ridge will dominate the weather for the state through
the forecast period. An occluded low over southern Kentucky, with
the occluded front extending to the coast of New Jersey and a warm
front extending east into the north Atlantic. The warm front will
move north to Cape Cod by the end of the period.
Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal
waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for
first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure cresting over the area will bring clear skies across
the north Friday night. A large but poorly organized storm system
with an upper low centered in the southern Great Lakes and a weak
surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will push some moisture into
southern areas Friday night into Saturday. This will bring mostly
cloudy conditions Downeast into Saturday where some light rain is
possible along the coast. Some light rain will be possible in
coastal areas Saturday night as the north remains dry. By Sunday,
one weak wave of low pressure will be sliding to the east allowing
surface high pressure to build back over our area. Upper level
moisture will result in cloudy skies Downeast and a cloudy to partly
sunny sky across the north on Sunday. Most areas, however, should
remain rain free on Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low in the Midwest will begin to lift out Sunday night
into Monday carrying moisture northeast and increasing the chances
for rain over our area on Monday. Upper level ridging will then
build across Monday night into Tuesday pressing moisture back south
and bringing a trend toward clearer skies from south to north. High
pressure both surface and aloft should then bring clear and mild
weather across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our focus late
in the week and going into next weekend will be on the track of
Hurricane Matthew which is being carried up the east coast by some
of our forecast guidance. The eventual track will be determined by
the position of the upper level ridge over the northeast in
combination with the timing of a trough moving in form the Midwest.
If the hurricane approaches the northeast, it could affect our
weather beginning early next weekend.
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aviation VFR conditions all sites through the period. Early
morning Fog around water bodies may lead to some vsby issues for
PQI, BGR, and BHB, conditions will improve rapidly after sunrise.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday
night into Saturday with the possible exception of some coastal
areas dropping to MVFR on Saturday. MVFR to IFR conditions in
lower clouds are expected Downeast Saturday night into Sunday with
a continuation of VFR conditions across the north. MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected across the area Sunday night into Monday
as moisture lifts across the region.
Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the period.
Winds will be 15 to 20 kts and seas around 5 ft at the start of
the period, subsiding early as higher pressure builds across the
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
through early next week. All marine interests should should
closely follow forecast updates through next week with the
potential that Hurricane Matthew may impact our weather late next
week or next weekend.