


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --229 FXUS61 KCAR 120524 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 124 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure over the area this morning will slide to the east today. A trough of low pressure in central Canada will slowly push a frontal boundary toward our region on Sunday then through the area Monday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday. Weak low pressure will approach on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure over the area is beginning to move east early this morning. A low level flow of moist air advecting north on the back side of this high has been pushing some low clouds and fog inland from the Gulf of Maine. The morning will begin with low overcast and fog across much of the southern part of our region this morning. Northern areas will begin mostly clear with only patchy fog and low clouds. Low clouds and fog will linger over the south into much of the day and slowly evaporate during the midday and afternoon, but remain near the coast. The north will become mostly sunny under an upper level ridge. This will result in northern areas being warmer than southern areas with highs from the upper 60s to low 70s near the coast, and reaching the low 80s well to the north. Low clouds and fog will spread back north tonight as a moist southerly breeze increases on the back side of the high. This will result in the sky becoming overcast overnight with low clouds. Some fog is likely Downeast and in the lower Penobscot Valley. High pressure will continue to move away to the east on Sunday as a large upper trough over Central Canada pushes a frontal boundary toward the area. Sunday morning will begin with a low overcast across the area. The low clouds will likely mix out for some breaks of sunshine during the afternoon with southern areas remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Highs again will be lower Downeast where low to mid 70s are expected, and warmer across the north with highs in the low 80s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --The aforementioned frontal boundary will approach the area Sunday night and cross Monday. Ahead of the front, patchy fog will be possible south of Katahdin for Sunday night into early Monday morning. Otherwise, the shower threat increases Sunday night, reaching a zenith on Monday. The main threat area will be from about Moosehead Lake to Katahdin to Houlton north and west. However, a few showers could reach Bangor by Monday afternoon. Soundings show enough instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially north and west. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will end Monday night as the front weakens and moves out of Maine. Clouds and showers will keep high temperatures in the 70s for most places on Monday. However, it will be a bit humid, with dew points well into the 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Some leftover energy behind the front could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to northeastern Aroostook County for Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, ridging will bring dry weather through at least early Wednesday. With clear skies and nearly calm winds Tuesday night, it is possible that lows could be a bit cooler than currently forecast. However, the air mass is not particularly cool, so not enough confidence to go below NBM guidance at this time. A cold front will slowly approach Maine from the northwest during the second half of next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon from Katahdin northward. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday as the front moves through. There remains uncertainty amongst guidance with timing of the frontal passage. Temperatures will be above normal midweek, then dropping closer to normal by the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: South: LIFR To IFR in clouds and fog this morning, possibly improving to MVFR inland from the coast this afternoon, then lowering back to IFR in low clouds and fog tonight. IFR in low clouds on Sunday. Light S wind. North: patchy low clouds and fog possible early this morning. Otherwise, VFR today into this evening, lowering to IFR in low clouds late tonight. IFR Sunday morning, improving to MVFR then VFR Sunday afternoon. Light S wind. SHORT TERM: Sunday Night...IFR/LIFR possible late, mainly GNR-MLT southward, with BCFG. Otherwise, mainly VFR. MVFR possible at times with VCSH and isolated TS at northern terminals. S-SE winds 5-15 kts. Monday & Monday Night...Variable conditions with any SHRA or TS. Also, with any low clouds or BCFG. Otherwise, mainly VFR. S winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. SW-W winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR or lower possible north in the PM with slight chance of VCSH and isolated TS. W winds 5-10 kts. Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with a slight chance of VCSH or isolated TS north. SW winds 5 to 10 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Wind will remain light and seas around 3 ft today through Sunday. Fog over the waters may be dense in some areas over the weekend. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday night through midweek. Patchy fog could reduce visibility over the waters Sunday night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --ME...None. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...Bloomer/Clark Marine...Bloomer/Clark