Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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787 FXUS61 KCAR 291808 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday. The high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday into Sunday as low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather for the state through the forecast period. An occluded low over southern Kentucky, with the occluded front extending to the coast of New Jersey and a warm front extending east into the north Atlantic. The warm front will move north to Cape Cod by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure cresting over the area will bring clear skies across the north Friday night. A large but poorly organized storm system with an upper low centered in the southern Great Lakes and a weak surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will push some moisture into southern areas Friday night into Saturday. This will bring mostly cloudy conditions Downeast into Saturday where some light rain is possible along the coast. Some light rain will be possible in coastal areas Saturday night as the north remains dry. By Sunday, one weak wave of low pressure will be sliding to the east allowing surface high pressure to build back over our area. Upper level moisture will result in cloudy skies Downeast and a cloudy to partly sunny sky across the north on Sunday. Most areas, however, should remain rain free on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper low in the Midwest will begin to lift out Sunday night into Monday carrying moisture northeast and increasing the chances for rain over our area on Monday. Upper level ridging will then build across Monday night into Tuesday pressing moisture back south and bringing a trend toward clearer skies from south to north. High pressure both surface and aloft should then bring clear and mild weather across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our focus late in the week and going into next weekend will be on the track of Hurricane Matthew which is being carried up the east coast by some of our forecast guidance. The eventual track will be determined by the position of the upper level ridge over the northeast in combination with the timing of a trough moving in form the Midwest. If the hurricane approaches the northeast, it could affect our weather beginning early next weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Aviation VFR conditions all sites through the period. Early morning Fog around water bodies may lead to some vsby issues for PQI, BGR, and BHB, conditions will improve rapidly after sunrise. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday night into Saturday with the possible exception of some coastal areas dropping to MVFR on Saturday. MVFR to IFR conditions in lower clouds are expected Downeast Saturday night into Sunday with a continuation of VFR conditions across the north. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across the area Sunday night into Monday as moisture lifts across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the period. Winds will be 15 to 20 kts and seas around 5 ft at the start of the period, subsiding early as higher pressure builds across the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA through early next week. All marine interests should should closely follow forecast updates through next week with the potential that Hurricane Matthew may impact our weather late next week or next weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Norton/Bloomer Marine...Norton/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.