Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041852 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 252 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY, IT WILL EJECT A COUPLE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BY 8 PM. THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BETTER-DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. AGAIN, MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. 24-HR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCH ARE LIKELY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE A BIT MORE, PERHAPS UP TO 0.75 INCH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAYBE GETTING A SPRINKLE OR TWO. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THEY MAY EVEN SEE A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO. THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 50 AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM AND THE GFS BRING THE LOW NEAR ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE DOWNEAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN STRAYING INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE LOW HANGS BACK IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TO BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY STRAY INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND PULLS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA MAY ALSO HELP TO PULL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...WITH A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NJ. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NJ WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...EARLY SUN MRNG...COMBINING ENERGY WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING INTO THE JAMES BAY REGION SUN MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING...HOWEVER BOTH MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MAINE BY TUES MRNG..WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE GFS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH NRN MAINE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY OVER ERN QUEBEC THRU WED MRNG...WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. A NEW LOW OVER SRN ILL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE N ATLANTIC ACROSS CAPE COD...THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAINE...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE NRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREA A WEAK HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRST AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (22Z) AND LATER AT THE NORTHERN SITES (05Z) RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH KBGR AND KBHB MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DOWNEAST ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN SOME SPOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HASTINGS/BLOOMER MARINE...HASTINGS/BLOOMER

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