-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 020523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE
AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SPOTS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
CLIMATE...