Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030446 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE NOW MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...COULD STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE FOG MOVE INLAND ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FCST AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND NAM WHICH BOTH PRESENT REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. THE SUPER BLEND CONTINUES TO WORK WELL WITH TEMPERATURE SO WILL USE IT THIS PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EXTENDED EAST WEST ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKE EARLY THURS...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE ALONG THE WRN ME/QUEBEC BORDER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY FOG ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE MULTI-MODEL APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND NAM. FOR WAVES: EXPECT NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND WAVE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY FRIDAY (2-3 FEET/5 SECONDS) BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY FETCH DISTANCE. WIND WAVE WILL SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL (AROUND 2 FEET/10-11 SECONDS). && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW/BERDES SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/BERDES/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW/BERDES/MIGNONE

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