Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290838 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 438 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EXPECT PATCH FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6. PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS. HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT. ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S. FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS POSSIBLE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO 3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

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