Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261434 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1010 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED MODIFYING POPS THRU TNGT USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL AND FCST HRLY TEMPS USING A COMBO OF OBSVD TEMPS IN THE NOW TERM AND COMBINED RAW MODEL TEMPS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ONE FACTOR NOTED THIS MORN...THAT OBSVD TEMPS ALF IN THE 950-850MB LAYER WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS MODEL INDICATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF A LAG IN THE CHGOVR TO SN VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE BEGINNING OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FCST UPDATE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TDY THRU TNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...RESULTING IN A LITTLE LESS EVENT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVR THE HIGHLANDS OF NW CNTRL ME WITH LESSER AMOUNTS N AND DOWNEAST FOR REASONS ALLUDED TO IN THE ORGNL NEAR TERN DISC. ORGNL DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD. AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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