Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210223 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST TO THE COAST. FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES... RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS. OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON NGT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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