Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 280758
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DRY COLUMN FOR LATE MAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PWATS WILL DROP TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. FAR INLAND WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY SO WE ONLY SHOW A LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FAR INLAND...WITH POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES INLAND. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...BUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
FEW OF THEM ADVECTING ONSHORE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BENEATH PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

SUNDAY...WITH DEEP RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
CONTINUE...ONLY ANTICIPATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB A BIT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO LOSE
SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND SPEEDS...FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH SOME SEAS TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL


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