Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 261743
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region this afternoon
then will dissipate tonight int Monday. Another cold front will
impact the area beginning Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into
Wednesday, then dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early Sunday afternoon, a cold front was slowly advancing through
far southern counties of the forecast area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to fire in this area this afternoon.
An isolated/pulse severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.
However, locally heavy rainfall and periods of frequent cloud to
ground lightning will remain the primary impacts. Elsewhere, pops
decrease as one moves north of the front. Otherwise, temps will
top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s at most locations away from the
immediate coast.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs maintain VFR conditions. However, the probability for
flight restrictions, especially in lowering ceilings to IFR/LIFR
levels, will increase overnight into early Monday. Will continue
to assess.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
Outside thunderstorms, mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Early Sunday afternoon, a cold front was progressing through
GA waters. This front should push just south of Altamaha Sound
by this evening. In the wake of the front, E/NE winds will average
15-20 kt and will be accompanied by seas 2-4 ft near shore waters
and as high as 4-5 ft at 20 nm and beyond.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches
from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected
to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface
each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...



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