Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 241110 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 710 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH PWATS 1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS ROLLS THROUGH. TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION... MARINE...JRL

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