Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 251121 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 721 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE/CAPPED MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE GLANCING MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE W OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. OUR INLAND GEORGIA ZONES INCLUDING LOCALES SOUTH OF METTER AND STATESBORO COULD SEE ACTIVITY BECOME LOCALLY SCATTERED WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE GETS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE INTRODUCED A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POP IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES. SE SOUTH CAROLINA...BRIEF ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE BUT WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TODAY BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUDS AROUND WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. NO CHANGE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME BUT THE GRADIENT LOOKS JUST A BIT WEAKER TODAY. TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS AROUND AND QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO POP UP INLAND. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER CAPPING TO SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV INTO MID MORNING AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC... OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KSAV. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/FETCH...ALTHOUGH THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. ONSHORE E TO ESE FLOW WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AT OR BELOW 15 KT AND DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST. RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK ALL BEACHES TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION... MARINE...JRL

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