Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 030144 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 944 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE LATE. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DOES OCCUR...THEN THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES...EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY...AND COUPLED WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-105. THESE HEAT INDICES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT STILL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT MORNING FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY...THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING...THEN SHIFT INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HAVE CONTINUED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. THUS...ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY... COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MINOR FLOODING. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES DEEPER FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION MORE PROGRESSIVE /LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS/. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE OVERALL GIST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEAR CONSTANT RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION AS IT CONSOLIDATES TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH THE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES...REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. ALSO...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE LATE TONIGHT...AND IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THEN THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG IS AT KSAV WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER...BUT EVEN HERE PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS INLAND OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN S/SW WINDS ABOUT 10-15 KT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL... SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAQ SHORT TERM...RFM LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...JAQ/RFM MARINE...RJB/RFM

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