Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 061724 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 124 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS CENTER POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS NEAR -23C AT THE H5 LVL WILL SUPPORT MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RATES ALONG WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG AND PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL WITH FORCING THAT ARRIVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALOFT. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. FURTHER SOUTH...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART AND WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS AROUND 50 IN MANY AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS EAST. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE SKY COVER MONDAY MORNING WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY SOME UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ENERGY APPROACHES WESTERN AREAS...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER CAUSING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THE CHS TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN GENERAL...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 15-20 KT EARLY...WITH GREATEST SPEEDS IN NORTHERN SC WATERS WHERE AMPLE LOW LVL MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE MAIN MARINE HIGHLIGHT WILL BE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW 15 KT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DESPITE THE OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY...THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE...AGAIN CAUSING A RISK FOR SHALLOW COAST FLOOD CONCERNS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 6... CHARLESTON AIRPORT /CHS/...44/1973 SAVANNAH AIRPORT /SAV/...46/1957 DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /CXM/...53/1921 && .EQUIPMENT... THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE AND GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...DPB/JRL MARINE...DPB/JRL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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