Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KCHS 010136 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 936 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Evening update: Strong thunderstorms currently north of our area are moving southward. Increased POPs for northern Screven, Allendale, Hampton, and northern Colleton counties to account for the storms moving into these areas. We will need to keep an eye on the southward moving outflow boundaries from these storms and how it interacts with the northward moving sea breeze. It`s possible thunderstorms could initiate where these boundaries interact, which may be around Hampton County. There remains plenty of instability in this area along with high DCAPES. The main threat would be strong and possibly damaging winds. Otherwise, the remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and then west into Georgia. There could be some fog toward daybreak Wednesday, but uncertainty is high enough that we chose to not mention it in the current forecast. Lows should be around 70 degrees in most locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday through Friday: The overall pattern will remain essentially unchanged in the mid to late week time period. Aloft, subtle ridging will become more prominent late in the week as an upper low develops across the southern plains. At the surface, very weak high pressure will settle in just offshore and extend westward into the forecast area. Overall, the result will be a somewhat typical early June pattern featuring scattered diurnal convection. The severe threat will be low each day thanks to the lack of any significant large scale forcing and unimpressive severe parameters noted in model soundings. However, we can never totally discount the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, especially where boundary interactions occur. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models in pretty good agreement through the long term period. Weak front stalled over the region will likely dissipate over the weekend, before another cold front approaches and crosses the area early next week. Typical diurnal convection expected, with perhaps greater coverage Sunday and Monday with the front in the vicinity. Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the bulk of precipitation associated with the front shifts offshore and high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Temperatures mainly near normal. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR. There is a small risk of low ceilings and/or fog late tonight, which could bring MVFR, or maybe even brief IFR. Confidence is not yet high enough to include in either TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Low risk for flight restrictions from mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tonight: Winds will generally be 10 kt or less through sunrise Wednesday while seas should be 2 to 3 ft. Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will gradually set up just east of the local waters on Wednesday and will remain in place into the weekend. This will promote persistent southerly flow through Friday that will be less than 15 kt. Pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the weekend as the coastal waters become sandwiched between high pressure to the east and an approaching front to the west. South/southwest winds will increase as a result, but conditions are still expected to stay well below small craft advisory criteria. Seas are expected to remain in the 1 to 3 ft range through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...ECT AVIATION...BSH/RJB MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.