Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 200222 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1022 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region into early next week as Hurricane Jose moves north toward the southern New England coast later this week. Hurricane Maria will move near the Bahamas this weekend before likely turning north just off the Southeast U.S. coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Late this evening: No changes needed to the going forecast. Previous discussion follows below. The dry and seasonable weather pattern will linger into tonight as high pressure holds firm. Most of the diurnal cumulus will dissipate after midnight, yield mostly clear skies, but do expect some increase in cirrus to occur early Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridging will begin to break down on Wednesday and especially Thursday into Friday as a sharp upper trough gradually cuts off across the Carolinas as Hurricane Jose moves north closer to the New England coast. Could see a few isolated showers/tstms develop across interior Southeast South Carolina Wednesday afternoon, although instability will be marginal, with more scattered activity developing ahead of the sea breeze circulation Thursday and Friday afternoons when instability is considerably greater. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with mid-upper 80s Friday afternoon. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s at the coast each night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Inland high pressure will persist into early next week but the main forecast concern is what will happen to Hurricane Maria which will be near the Bahamas this weekend. Much will likely depend on what happens to Jose which is expected to still be lingering off the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. Just too much uncertainty at this point so everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast later this week into early next week. Best, albeit small, rain chances look to be near the coast Friday night into Saturday, assuming Maria tracks well offshore. Temperatures look to stay above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns through Sun. && .MARINE...
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Tonight: Winds will remain 10 kt or less with seas 1-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore. Wednesday through Sunday: No significant concerns before swells from Hurricane Maria nearing the southeast Bahamas later this week begin to impact the waters Thursday night or Friday. Advisories will be likely for the offshore waters starting Friday and the nearshore waters starting Friday night. Seas could build to 10 feet or more near the Gulf Stream Saturday night into Sunday but seas and winds will be worse if Maria tracks closer to the area than currently expected. Rip Currents: Increasing astronomical influences and a very minor lingering swell component from Jose will support another moderate rip current risk at area beaches for Wednesday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Much of the coast remains vulnerable in the wake of Irma with many dune lines either completely washed away or severely compromised. Even if the tide gages at Charleston Harbor and Fort Pulaski fall short of shallow coastal flooding criteria, some flooding problems are still likely with many of the natural coastal protection systems compromised. Powerful swells from Hurricanes Jose and Maria will also drive significant wave run- up, which could cause further erosion. Thus, the potential for shallow coastal flooding will persist into early next week around the times of high tide, mainly the late day high tides, and particularly along the SC coast.
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&& .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BSH/ST SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...BSH/ST MARINE...ST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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