Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 011652
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1252 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The front will linger not too far offshore through the weekend
before moving farther southeast early next week as high pressure
builds from the north. Meanwhile, Hurricane Matthew is likely to
be moving north from the Bahamas off the Southeast U.S. coast
through the end of the week, although there remains much
uncertainty in the strength and track of this system. Refer to the
latest advisory on Matthew issued by the National Hurricane
Center.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The stationary front looks to have buckled inland just a bit with
the development of a sea breeze circulation along the Charleston
County coast. Most forecast parameters are still in check, but
some hourly adjustments were needed. Did opt nudge high temperatures
down 1-2 degs across far interior Southeast Georgia. An isolated
shower is still possible across mainly Charleston County through
late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant weather impacts expected this period. At the surface,
high pressure will build from the northwest and then north while a
stalled front lingers offshore and tropical cyclone Matthew moves
north from the Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas. This pattern will
feature mostly above normal temperatures in the mid/upper 80s
through Monday and then lower/mid 80s Tuesday. Also, rain chances
will be rather low through Monday, mainly near the coast. By Tuesday
stronger low-level onshore flow should increase moisture convergence
and lead to greater coverage of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Uncertainty higher than normal this period given the model
disagreement regarding tropical cyclone Matthew and therefore we
kept the forecast close to WPC guidance. The NHC/WPC forecast shows
Matthew moving north from the Bahamas through late week, remaining
off the U.S. East coast. However, there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of the storm from mid
to late week so everyone is urged to stay tuned to the latest
forecasts. At the very least we will likely see breezy/showery
conditions across the area, especially near the coast. Temperatures
should remain at or above normal through the period, especially if
Matthew doesn`t significantly impact the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. Could see some shallow ground fog at the terminals prior to
sunrise Sunday, but impacts do not look significant attm.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions along with
breezy/gusty winds possible mid next week, especially if Hurricane
Matthew tracks close to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Rather weak flow and erratic wind directions anticipated
over the waters through tonight due to a weak stalled front.

Sunday through Thursday: No significant concerns regarding
winds/seas through at least Monday night as a cold front lingers
over or near the area. Winds will generally be 15 knots or less
with seas 4 feet or less. Thereafter, conditions will depend
greatly on the track/strength of Hurricane Matthew which is
forecast by the NHC to be near the northern Bahamas Wednesday.
This will mean increasing winds/seas across the local waters
toward mid week given the tightening pressure gradient due to high
pressure to the north. At this time tropical storm force winds
could start as early as Wednesday, especially for the offshore GA
waters. As for seas, we lowered the GFS-based WaveWatch guidance a
bit toward mid week given that the NHC forecast for Matthew is
farther east.

Rip Currents: An enhanced risk is expected toward the middle of next
week due to increasing winds/swells associated with Hurricane
Matthew.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



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