Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 171703
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move across the Coastal Plain today, moving
over the western Atlantic tonight. A front will then waver
across the area through early next week keeping conditions
unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The fog has lifted and temperatures are warming rapidly in near
full insolation. Some stratus lingers in the Walterboro-Moncks
Corner areas, but this too will dissipate quickly. Only minor
changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening cold front will approach Wednesday before pushing
through Wednesday night and then pushing back northward as a warm
front Thursday night. Although there could be a few showers with the
initial frontal passage Wednesday and Wednesday night the better
rain chances will come Thursday night into Friday as deeper moisture
and synoptic forcing move into the area. Some thunderstorms will
also be possible Thursday night into Friday, mainly in Georgia where
the best instability is expected, although severe weather is
unlikely. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A wave of low pressure is likely to push off the NC coast Friday
night dragging a weak cold front into the area. The front will then
stall out with rain chances increasing from the south as deeper
moisture associated with an upper shortwave moving through the
region. The front will continue to be a source of low-level
convergence as it shifts northward as a warm front Saturday night
into Sunday and with deeper moisture returning to the area along
with strong forcing ahead of a deep upper low moving through the TN
Valley rain chances will be high and there will be a risk of some
stronger storms Sunday as the low-level flow increases along with
instability. Pretty good model agreement that the best rain chances
will be done by daybreak Monday with the cold front slowly pushing
through Monday, with breezy conditions expected. It will take some
time for the large upper trough to shift offshore so the coldest
temperatures will be delayed until Tuesday, although only dropping
to near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Fog parameters are not has good as the past several days
with the low-level flow veering southwest versus south. Could
still see some shallow ground fog develop at both KCHS and KSAV,
but do not anticipate any major impacts at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible
Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night into Thursday as a
cold front moves through. Better chance of restrictions expected
Friday as a warm front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Sea fog is only lingering in the inland bays and
waterways, including Port Royal Sound and portions of the
Savannah Harbor. The Marine Dense Fog Advisory has expired.

Tonight: SSW winds will continue over the GA and SC waters.
Models indicate that sea fog and stratus may gradually increase
this evening and through the overnight hours. It is possible
that dense fog can redevelop over the offshore waters and
adjacent harbors this evening.

Wednesday through Sunday: No significant concerns regarding
winds/seas, although fog could reduce visibilities, especially over
the near shore waters, mainly into Wednesday night, Friday and again
Sunday. Conditions could near Advisory levels across the Charleston
County waters Wednesday and beyond 20 nm Friday and again later
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Tuesday, 17 January:
KCHS: 78/2013 and previous years.
KCXM: 78/1928.
KSAV: 81/1943.

Record highs for Wednesday, 18 January:
KCHS: 77/1952.
KCXM: 79/1928.
KSAV: 81/1937.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


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