Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250742
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Lake Michigan will move across the area tonight
then off the East Coast by late Wednesday. A cold front will push
southeast through the region late Thursday. Another area of high
pressure will spread southeast into the area Friday and hang around
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough and it`s associated colder temps aloft will shift
off to the east today and tonight. A weakening upper ridge will move
ESE across the CWA Wed. The presence of the upper trough this
morning will continue to keep the airmass unstable enough relative
to the lake for a few shra to be possible for the snowbelt counties.
The cu and stratocu will likely increase in coverage thru the
morning then high pressure moving in from the west and the departure
of the upper trough should combine to lead to decreasing clouds the
rest of the day. Today will be a seasonally cool day with highs from
around 70 in the far east to near 80 in the far west.

Some high clouds may drift into the area tonight but in general the
night should be mostly clear with light winds. This will allow for
another cool night with lows mostly 55 to 60.

With the high moving to the East Coast by late Wed, warm advection
will start up on Wed allowing highs to recover into a range from the
upper 70s far east to low to mid 80s west. High and some mid clouds
will likely make for a partly cloudy day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models are in better agreement with the frontal passage on
Thursday and most develop a significant surface low pressure and
track it across Ohio. This scenario still has a look of convective
feedback but it may not matter too much in the bigger scheme of
things. Even if the surface low pressure is weaker or takes a
different track, we will probably see a swath of showers and
thunderstorms slide across the area ahead of the front. Will
forecast increasing pops from west to east Thursday with likely or
categorical pops in most areas. There is some concern that a
thunderstorm complex could dive south of the forecast area but that
would just be speculation at this point. Will stick close to
guidance temperatures given the uncertainty in the timing of the
showers. Highs Thursday from the upper 70s to the lower 80s assuming
increasing clouds and showers. Could be warmer if the whole system
is slower.

Most of the models continue to show a strong trailing short wave for
Friday with some of the models continuing to show a closed low
aloft. Not sure if this is overdone but the feature has been
consistent. Will leave a chance of showers for most areas Friday
morning and then back off the pops to a dry forecast by Friday
night. Will trim forecast high temperatures a little for Friday,
generally in the mid 70s, and it could be cooler if it is cloudy and
showery.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure should build in over the weekend. Heights are progged
to rise quickly by Sunday as the ridge builds aloft. Temperatures
should recover back toward normal by Sunday although dew points
should remain relatively low. It may take until Monday night or next
Tuesday for the next front to approach.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The upper trough will keep stratocu over the ne half of the area
into daybreak with some increase in additional cu during the
morning. High pressure and drier air pushes in from the west this
aftn into tonight which will cause the cu field to dissipate from
west to east. Cigs will be mostly MVFR in and around the snowbelt
through the morning then lift for the afternoon. An isolated light
shra will be possible thru the morning in the snowbelt.

North winds gusting 15 to 20 knots at CLE will continue to diminish
the rest of the night. NE winds should then run 5 to 10 knots today
becoming light east for tonight and SE by daybreak Wed.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold front expected
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have been diminishing on Lake Erie very slowly early this
morning, and remain rather brisk on the central basin. The NAM
continues to show pressure rises and a north to northeast flow
through 15Z which is a hint that the wind will probably remain
strong enough for small craft advisory conditions at least through
early this morning. Will extend the small craft advisory and beach
hazards statement through 10 AM.

The gradient should lighten up pretty quickly this afternoon as high
pressure builds across the lake. Winds will back to south and
southeast by Wednesday morning as high pressure shifts east.

There is still some uncertainty on the timing of the next cold front
on Thursday and the corresponding wind shift. Winds on the western
basin may begin to shift to north or northwest Thursday afternoon
and the entire lake should see a wind shift to the north by Thursday
evening. The north flow will likely be strong enough to require a
small craft advisory Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will
build across the lake on Saturday. There is some concern that the
northeast flow may still be rather brisk, at least to start the day.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Kosarik


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