Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020110
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
910 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FIRST FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SW INTO
THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THE CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE
WNW AND THE CIRRUS TO THE SW ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA.
DUE TO CALLABORATION WILL ONLY ALLOW SKY COVER TO RAMP UP TO 30 TO
40% IN THE SE AND EAST.


HRRR AND RUC STILL HOLDING OFF PRECIP NEARING THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
12Z SO CONTINUETO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BY 06Z THEN TEMPS MAY START TO DRIFT UP A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH 12Z AS MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH START TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A WARM AND PROBABLY BUSY DAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AREAS EAST OF I-71 SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. MU CAPES GET TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL HEAR THUNDER FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NEVER GET
OUT OF THE PRECIP FRIDAY BUT A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES FOR TOMORROW. THINK
THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS PART OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
PUT A MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A MIXED WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH TOLEDO
BY THE END OF THURSDAY AND CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  AS COLD FRONT SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY









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