Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A SANDUSKY TO KMNN LINE AS OF 2330Z. THERE
HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TAF SITES THAT DIP TO IFR LEVELS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 04Z FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 20...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA





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