Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 202342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS FINALLY MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH OF THE CLEVELAND
AIRPORT. ITS INFLUENCE ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WILL DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WARMING A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTSIDE
BUT IT COULD STILL COULD HOLD THE LOWS UP SOME ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AND WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT MONDAY DRY...SOME SHOWERS
COULD GET CLOSE TO TOLEDO VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
OVER WESTERN OHIO MONDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK AND ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER
TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THAT COULD GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 10C. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOW
BELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER ASHTABULA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH...AT THIS TIME NOT MEETING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT THURSDAY DRY. INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSING IN ON
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. BUT THE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT OUT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR THURSDAY/S RAIN. BY THE TIME IT LIFTS OUT THE
TROUGH THE ECMWF IS ALREADY BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. BECAUSE THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHED ANY MORE CERTAINTY...I WILL KEEP POPS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES EITHER...BUT BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE NEXT BEST BET TO
CRACK 70 DEG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...ULTIMATELY LIMITING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MILDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE HAS PUSHED IN THROUGH ERI/CLE AND WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO TOL
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE LAKE BREEZE RECEDES
THROUGH 02-04Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT THE
WESTERN SITES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURES OVER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY FRIDAY THE
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAYERS






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