Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 311454
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
TODAY...SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
INTO MAINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND THE POP TRYING TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. DROPPED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE SLOWLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP SE INTO WESTERN
PA BY LATE TODAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE AS UPPER DYNAMICS
INCREASE FROM THE TROUGH DIGGING SSE TOWARD CVG. COULD START TO
SEE SNOW START TO MIX IN OVER THE FAR NW AROUND 6 PM. INCREASING
AND THICKENING OF THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SMALL TEMP INCREASES
TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN A 46 TO 49 RANGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UPPER LOW COULD INDUCE SOME THUNDER LATER TODAY BUT CONSENSUS IS
NOT FOR MENTIONING THUNDER DUE TO SMALL CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE MODELS. STILL EXPECT TO PRECIP TO
TAPER DOWN AS THE PRECIP STARTS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT WITH MAINLY WET ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY
ON GRASSY AREAS. AIR COLD ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL
ONLY BE MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND MAYBE JUST THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A FREEZING ISSUE FOR
PAVED SURFACES.

THE BEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AREA. RIGHT NOW BEST GUESS IS MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO IN PART
OF THIS AREA WITH MAYBE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH SAT MORNING. FURTHER
EAST...BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH OF A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TONIGHT THEN TEMPS TRY AND HANG AROUND 40 DEGREES
ON SAT SO THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO BE MOSTLY SNOW
THUS CONTINUING TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION. WILL KEEP MOST PLACES WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION ON SAT.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLING ESE OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT EVE. NOT
SURE IF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE EXITING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LEAD TO DECENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ALOFT. WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT SAT NIGHT TO AN INCH OR LESS.
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND
25 IN THE WEST WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP LOWS
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES. THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
THE FREEZING POINT HELPING TO KEEP ANY SNOW MELTING SO THE ROADS
SHOULD NOT SEE A FREEZING ISSUE.

MAYBE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN THE EAST
PART OF THE SNOWBELT...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SHOULD
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS. DECENT WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT START UNTIL
SUN NIGHT SO HIGHS SUN WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
UPPER 30S FAR EAST TO MID 40S FAR WEST.

STILL CONCERNED THAT A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHRA MAY DEVELOP SE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHER PART OF THE CWA.
WILL ADD MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC SHRA. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
TEMP INCREASES ON MON WITH HIGHS ONLY ABLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S
NE TO AROUND 55 FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COLD FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AHEAD OF IT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ERIE AREA FOR SHOWERS TO ARRIVE BY MID
MORNING AS CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE INCREASES.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE LIKELY. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD BUT MAY REACH KCLE AND KMFD
BY LATE EVENING.

CHANCES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH 06Z ON SATURDAY. HAVE
ONLY PLACED A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NW OHIO FOR THE LATE EVENING.
SOME SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY THEN PERSISTING OVER
NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. AFTER SEEING GALE WIND SPEEDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANTICIPATING
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW AS IT ARRIVES IN NORTHERN OHIO WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. IT APPEARS
IT WILL BE A LOWER END GALE SINCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ALL THAT STRONG UNTIL AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SOME SIGNIFICANT
WAVES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED LATER TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY RUN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE LAKE INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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