Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 060822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SURFACE FEATURES...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING OF THE THERMAL PROFILE...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F IN THE WEST. ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
HE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. STILL LOOKING AT A NOTABLE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION AND LOW RH BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE SOME HINT BY THE MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST. ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEEPENING
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THE
DYNAMICS BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS THE
MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING A STRONG
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH SO BELIEVE THE NAM MODEL IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ONCE
AGAIN TRENDED FASTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP EARLIER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NW COUNTIES...THERE WILL LESS TIME TO TAP INTO THE PEAK
HEATING...AND MORE CLOUD COVER TO REDUCE CAPE VALUES. STILL
ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. THE PRECIP WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW
TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY WITH SW FLOW SUPPORTING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH 00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AS MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
ADVANCING LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP
ON TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT BECOMES DIMINISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CLEAR THE AREA OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WET AND ACTIVE
PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE LOCATED OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
THE OTHER OVER MANITOBA IN CANADA. ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS. CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KCLE/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK ONLY IF WINDS CAN DECREASE ENOUGH AND ANY
CLOUD COVER REMAINS ABSENT AT ANY OF THESE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NON VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS ONE LOW
DEPARTS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
FROM MANITOBA CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE 5 TO 15
KNOTS TO START ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
IN CANADA WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH A GUST TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES LOOK TO BE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
SMALL CRAFT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT THREAT. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.