Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1027 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Yet another clipper storm system will impact the region today.
Lake effect snow will develop in the wake of a cold front that
should sweep across the area this evening. A warm front will
lift north across the area Saturday afternoon as a weakening low
pressure system moves into the central Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southerly flow is developing ahead of low pressure located over
the upper penninsula of Michigan. Temperatures are starting to
warm after a cool start this morning. The forecast remains on
track for today and we will be taking a close look at the lake
effect event for tonight to determine if any additional areas
need to be added to the Winter Weather Advisory.

Previous discussion...The next clipper storm system will impact
the region today with warm advection ahead of it. So after a
cold start we will see temperatures recover to the middle and
upper 20s. Already seeing this increase in temperatures as lower
cloud cover spreads across the area from NW Ohio. Cant rule out
a few very light snow showers from the lower cloud cover that
spreads across the area ahead of the cold front today. This
occurring because the higher level clouds seed the lower clouds
which initiates ice crystal growth. The main area of snow will
develop over the lake mid to late afternoon and then spread
onshore with the cold front this evening. The heavier lake
effect snow looks like it develops across NW PA around 02z and
continues through about 09z. The lake effect snow will then
linger into Saturday and will not end until late afternoon. We
will go with a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow from
6pm this evening through 4 pm Saturday.

The remainder of the snowbelt will also see snow but amounts
will generally be in the 2 to 4 inch range. However Geauga
County and portions of inland Ashtabula County will need to be
monitored for the potential of being added to the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will set up near leri Sat night then try to slowly lift
north into Mon as a weak low moves NE from the central plains into
the lhur area. Initially there may be just enough moisture with the
front for a chc for light snow near ERI Sat night but by daybreak
Sun enough drier air should push NE to end the precip threat there.
High pressure will briefly
ridge into Ohio from the southeastern US Saturday
On Sun, a weakening upper and surface low move NE near the area which
will bring rapidly increasing clouds and a chance for rain by Sun
aftn. This impulse will move off to the NE Sun night into Mon but
leave behind a lot of moisture that could allow for some patchy
light precip late Sun night and Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warmer than normal temps Mon night will allow for a chc for mostly
rain then a cold front will cross the area Tue with a chc for rain
that will change to snow into Tue night for the precip that lingers
in the snowbelt. A threat for snow showers should continue in the
snowbelt Wed and near Lake Erie Wed night and Thu as another warm
front sets up near the lake. However, by midday Thu, temps should
warm enough for the precip to change to mostly rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low end VFR cloud cover continues to spread across the region
and will cover most of the area by 12Z. Even seeing some
patches of MVFR across inland NW PA but believe this will remain
away from the TAF sites. As a cold front approaches the area
this afternoon expect to see ceilings lower. MVFR ceilings
arrive across NW Ohio by afternoon and spread eastward. Some
very light snow may develop from this lower cloud deck but do
not anticipate any visibility issues. The main area of snow will
develop over the lake mid to late afternoon and then spread
onshore between KCLE and KERI around 00Z. The worst conditions
(IFR) will occur around KERI.

Light winds expected through sunrise then south to southwest
winds increasing ahead of the front. Gusts 20 to 25 knots will
become common. Winds shift more to the west in the wake of the
front during the evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday across the area and again
Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR also possible in northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another clipper low moving east across the lakes will cause SW winds
to increase today into tonight to 20 to 30 knots and veer to the
west with the passage of a cold front. SCA conditions will settle
down Sat as weak high pressure moves over the lake. Winds should
stay relatively light into Mon then start increasing from the SW
later Mon and Mon night before turning west again from another cold
frontal passage Tue with SCA conditions expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Adams



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