Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 242026
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region the region this evening will
drift east on Wednesday as low pressure moves from the Central
Plains to the Central Great Lakes. A cold front will move through
late Wednesday and usher in colder air Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... a ridge of high pressure will be moving
across the area this evening and should be east of the area by
12z. Not much of a fair weather system as it should only serve to
end precip in the area. Clouds should remain through the night.
For the evening will hold onto drizzle NWRN OH and NWRN PA.
Otherwise dry. Starting out with areas of fog mainly east with the
drizzle and lowest visibilities are near the lakeshore. Overnight
will end the fog although confidence low and may need to add back
in or expand later this evening. Overnight lows should drop to the
lower 30s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday morning low pressure will be in Eastern IA with a warm
front southeast into NRN KY. A cold front will extend south. The
low will move northeast across the Central Great Lakes by evening
Wednesday. The warm front will lift northeast across the area
during the day. The cold front will follow reaching the central
lakeshore by evening. The low will reach southern Ontario by
Thursday morning with a surface trough just to our west. The
trough will move through during the day. For wednesday brought
in chance pops for rain moving into the area with the frontal
systems. Dry slot moves in behind the cold front likely ending
precip in the west late afternoon/early evening. late evening
however wrap around moisture moves in from the northwest as the
surface trough approaches. will bring pops back in the west late
evening with pops increasing to high chance/likely by 12z Thursday
as the moisture fills in. Best chance should be in the snowbelt
where flow off the lake will grab additional moisture. For
Thursday continued with categorical pops northeast Ohio and
northwest PA. Temps continue too warm for traditional lake effect
however enhancement would be likely. Dropped pops to low chance
after the trough moves east Thursday night and Friday outside of
the snowbelt. Still looks sub warning snow accums in the
snowbelt Thursday into friday. Temps mild Wednesday dropping back
to near normal by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes region this weekend
into early next week, bringing slightly below normal temperatures
and periods of snow showers to the area. No major changes to pops or
temperatures from previous forecast. Main potential for accumulating
snowfall during this period is Saturday into Sunday across the
primary snowbelt. There is potential for more organized snow bands,
with westerly flow, good synoptic moisture up through 8kft, little
cloud layer shear, lake surface-850mb differentials near 14C, and
inversion levels rising to around 9kft. It is too early for specific
details regarding snow band morphology, placement, and subsequent
snowfall amounts, but will continue to be monitored as we go through
the week.

Ridging will build into the area late Monday through Tuesday,
effectively shutting down any lingering lake effect as flow backs
southwest and WAA begins. A clipper system may track through the
central Great Lakes Tuesday, which could bring snow chances back to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Will take a while to get the IFR stratus and lingering rain to
the east of the forecast area as the trough slowly lifts out.
Conditions will improve to MVFR from the west through the
afternoon and early evening but there is some uncertainty as to
whether the stratus deck can improve to MVFR or remain IFR as we
go into the night, mainly at KCAK and KYNG. There should be
improvement to VFR Wednesday morning as low pressure tracks
toward the Great Lakes and the south wind and mixing develops
Wednesday morning. There is some uncertainty as to the amount of
showers that will develop on Wednesday. Little if anything
expected before 18Z so there is no mention of rain in the current
TAF forecasts.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR likely through the forecast period
especially across northeast OH and northwest PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A change in the weather pattern coming up with a transition back
to a typical winter west northwest flow pattern by Thursday. In the
meantime, Lake Erie will be under some ridging and relatively
light winds as high pressure will slide across the lake overnight.

Light west winds will slowly back to south and increase ahead of a
fast moving low pressure system on Wednesday. The associated cold
front will sweep across Lake Erie Wednesday evening. Winds will
become southwest and increase after the frontal passage Wednesday
night. The moderate to strong flow will wobble back and forth from
southwest to west and northwest through the end of the week. Small
craft advisories will be needed from Wednesday evening or early
Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik



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