Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280507 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...MAYERS SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN

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