Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242040 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 340 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40 KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY. JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP. THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE 40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY COULD REACH CRITERIA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003- 006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144- 162>164. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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