Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 110804
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016
A low will move northeast across lower michigan early monday pulling
a cold front across the area. An arctic cold front will push east
through the region late tuesday. High pressure over the plains will
move across the area friday then another low will track northeast
across michigan saturday pulling another arctic front through the
region by sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON MONDAY/...
Latest model runs generally keep things on track so not making any
significant changes to forecast other than to back down snow
accumulation some for today for central and southern part of the
cwa. Warm advection strongest in the boundary layer so still looks
more like snow would change to rain versus a freezing type of
precip. South winds will likely cause temps to slowly rise most of
tonight so for much of the night most of the cwa should be at or
Northern counties have a good chance to see precip stay as just
snow. Luckily snowfall rate should stay light to moderate so
advisory still seems best way to go with not quite enough snow in
the southern co`s to reach the 4 inch criteria for an advisory.
Punch of drier air aloft quickly races ene across the cwa between
09z and 15z to end the precip.
.SHORT TERM /NOON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Marginally favorable lake effect conditions set up later monday and
monday night for a few lake effect snow showers to occur resulting
in an inch or so of accumulation here and there in the snowbelt.
A lobe of the polar vortex digging into the james bay area will
drive an arctic cold front across the region late tue into tuesday
night with the leading edge of the arctic air starting to spread
into the area. Moisture along the front generally lacking so only
threat for any snow looks to just be in the snowbelt area and even
there it doesn`t look like much lake effect gets going thru daybreak
wednesday. Temps by 12z wed should mostly be down into the teens
expect maybe some lower 20s along the lakeshore of the snowbelt.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today. It still looks like a
chilly week with lake effect ongoing at the beginning period.
Conditions will worsen by Thursday as an arctic front pushes south
of the area. The cold air behind the front should cause the lake
effect to intensify. 850 mb temps will get colder than neg 20 which
is about as cold as they get this time of year. Of course given
those temps the airmass will be very dry so lot`s of uncertainty
with accums. A 1030 mb high will move across the local area on
Friday and that will switch the flow to the south and end the snow.
Yesterday the long term guidance had a low moving up the Ohio Valley
on Saturday with wintry precip across the area. Today the models
show the same low 300 miles further northwest. If that scenario
comes true the area will see rain and not snow. Confidence in the
models is not very high given the lack of continuity. For now will
trend toward the newer solution with highs Saturday above freezing.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lake effect is gone. Next storm system pushing west to east
toward the forecast area at this time. A general snow that will
affect the entire area will spread west to east across the area
tonight and is now in the Toledo and Findlay areas and will move
east from there the rest of the night. Ceilings and visibilities
will quickly drop as the snow moves into the area. Lowest ceilings
expected to be around 700 feet late tonight into tomorrow while
visibilities will drop to around 1/2sm especially tomorrow when the
heaviest snow arrives. Accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches expected
during the TAF period across the area with more expected beyond the
TAF period. Air mass now appears it will remain cold enough to
support all snow so will not mention any mix of precipitation.
OUTLOOK...Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow into Monday
for the entire forecast area. Lake effect snow will continue in
the snowbelt east of CLE into Tuesday.
Have gone ahead and hoisted another round of small craft advisories
just in case some recreational boaters want to go out in the heavy
snow today. The advisory is more for sustained wind speeds than
waves given the southerly direction. A warm front will move over
the lake this evening and will be followed by a cold front on
Monday. This will cause the winds to flip back to the west. Speeds
will gradually diminish by early Tuesday. A second cold front will
cross the area later Tuesday with a stronger arctic front following
on Wednesday night. It won`t be a good week for boating with small
crafts needed much of the period.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ012>014-
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ003-
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
Tuesday for LEZ146>149.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
Monday for LEZ142>145.