Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 302301
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have refined the timing of tonight`s rain chances to around 08Z and
mainly for the far west column of counties. Areas east will
likely remain dry until Friday morning. Have increased clouds in
the west in association with the debris clouds advecting in this
evening. Temperatures will be warmer tonight given the cloud
cover, especially in the western half.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will
quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry
Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.
High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run
about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.
After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.
Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Clouds will gradually increase and lower from west to east tonight
but should still stay at vfr levels thru the end of the night. A
band of shra and possible tsra are expected to push east across the
area from about 09z thru 18z. Where the rain does occur...the rain
should be brief so only expect briefly lowered cigs or vsbys. Due to
the brevity and limited coverage of the rain, will continue to just
use vcsh in the tafs for the possibility. Any lowered conditions
during the rain and associated cold front will improve west to east
from late morning thru the afternoon.
Mainly s to sw winds of 10 knots or less tonight will turn to the
west at 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the cold front tomorrow.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.