Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240708 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 307 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dissipating cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday then high pressure spreads over the region tuesday into thursday before weakening. A low is expected to move out of the plains and across ohio friday into saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/... The convective complex just w of the cwa is expected to move east toward lake erie this morning while weakening. This may lead to a lot of the cwa seeing little rain but a lot of leftover debris clouds which would limit daytime heating thus affecting how much new development occurs with daytime heating and whether we still need the heat advisory. Generally agree with ongoing pops that mainly run 50% or less and qpf mostly a quarter of an inch or less. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm. As mentioned previously...highs today will be tricky due to uncertainty with how long debris clouds with hang on from initial convective system. Have decided to still let highs get into the lower 90s for all but the far ne. With dewpoints into the lower 70s still have heat index values getting around 100 for the current advisory area as well as the sw part of stark co. Based on collaboration will add stark co into the heat advisory and reluctantly leave rest of heat advisory still going. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Slow moving, dissipating cold front probably won`t move se of the cwa until mon eve which will keep a good threat of shra/tsra going for much of the cwa tonight then for mainly the se half by mon afternoon and finally tapering off in the far se during mon evening. Temps mon should be a little cooler do to widespread cloudiness then lows mon night should finally back down into the 60s for all but the immediate lakeshore. High pressure builds over the region to produce dry conditions for tue and tue night with temps a little above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will weaken by Thursday as the next upper level trough approaches. It appears that there will be a frontal boundary stalled near the area with chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through the weekend. Each piece of jet energy moving through the trough will be able to enhance convective development but do not trust the timing of this at this point. Chances of a significant rainfall for portions of the area are definitely on the increase. Seasonal temperatures are anticipated through the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... High level cloud cover will continue to spill across the region from the west as the MCS weakens over Michigan and Indiana. VFR conditions are expected until some fog develops toward sunrise. There could be some patchy IFR, especially at KCAK and maybe KMFD. Warm temperatures and a lack of significant moisture at the middle levels of the atmosphere will have impacts on the convective development this afternoon. Unless an outflow boundary from this mornings convection over Indiana can sneak into northern Ohio it will be very difficult to see thunderstorm initiation. So with that said we have kept the thunder from all the TAF sites through the day. As a weak cold front approaches tonight into Monday morning there could be some thunderstorms. Have placed a vicinity thunder at KTOL around 05Z to cover this potential. Winds will be mostly from the southwest this afternoon except for along the lakeshore where some onshore flow is anticipated. The lake breeze will likely only impact KCLE, KCGF and KERI. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday night into Monday in thunderstorms. Non-VFR fog/mist possible each morning. && .MARINE... High pressure will begin to lose its influence on Lake Erie today as it moves eastward. Lake breeze should be able to develop from Cleveland to Erie today but the southwesterly flow should increase across the western basin. Still does not look like it will be much above 10 knots away from any thunder that can develop. Southwest winds will become westerly in the wake of a cold front that will cross the lake early Monday. High pressure will then settle back over the central Great Lakes with light winds expected into Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Ohz003-006>011- 017>021-027>032-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Mullen

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