Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011919 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 319 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE CLOUDS OVER NE OH AND NW PA ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP SOME. THEY HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BUT WILL START TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCH THEIR WAY UP AND SHOULD MAKE 40 DEGREES BY MORNING IN THE WEST WHICH MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY WILL BE A WARM AND PROBABLY BUSY DAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS EAST OF I-71 SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. MU CAPES GET TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL HEAR THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NEVER GET OUT OF THE PRECIP FRIDAY BUT A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES FOR TOMORROW. THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH COULD LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS PART OF THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL PUT A MENTION IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A MIXED WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... REMNANTS OF MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OUT TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEARING TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOMORROW. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS COLD FRONT SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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