Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 270555 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 155 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure extended from Wisconsin to Texas along a cold front. Low pressure will strengthen in Arkansas along the front this evening and move north to the central Great Lakes overnight. Thursday the low will continue north into Canada and the trailing cold front will sweep east across the area. Thursday night and early Friday high pressure will briefly build into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Not many changes to the forecast. Have been watching the storms moving across the northwest tip of OH. This activity should miss the local area to the northwest and do not see any chances for precip till after daybreak. There will be an increase in clouds from the blow off so will bump temps up a tad...especially in the west. Previous...Satellite loop shows an upper disturbance moving into the mean upper trough in Texas with deep convection developing ahead of it through northeast Texas Arkansas and Missouri. This short wave will move through the base of the trough this evening reaching the Tennessee Valley overnight giving a negative tilt to the whole system. This should effectively keep convection to our west overnight. Will keep forecast partly cloudy/mostly clear through the evening and much of the overnight. Towards/just before sunrise however will begin to increase clouds in the west. Lows in the lower 60s && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will move east across the area during the day as the deepening surface low moves north of the central lakes into Canada. Guidance showing only chance pops for western counties Thursday but feel that with the strength of the system and the deep moisture feeding into the area favor keeping likely pops in for the west. Do believe however that there will be more thunderstorms east in the afternoon vs west in the morning so will have a chance of thunderstorms mentioned along with the likely pops. Further east will have thunderstorm chances agree with pops. Some storms could be strong to near severe limits. By late afternoon will end pops west and clouds should break. Thursday night and early Friday weak high pressure will build in. Friday afternoon however isentropic lift in warm advection ahead of low pressure in the central plains will move into the area from the west. Could see a few showers/storms west toward evening so will have a small pop. Friday night as a surface waves moves to our north this developing front will drop south into the area. The GFS takes the boundary a bit further south vs the NAM however both show ample moisture across the area. Still some question as to how much forcing will be in place for the day as the best unstable air drops to the OH river by afternoon. Will go with likely pops in the afternoon but well keep thunderstorms at chance. Low pressure will move north through the central plains Sunday lifting the front back as a warm front on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another upper level low will move out of the OK/KS area Sunday and slow move ne across the lakes thru Tue then another upper low will dig into the MS valley by late Wed. This will lead to a wet pattern with fronts and waves of low pressure pushing through the region. The on and off nature of the bands of rain should help to limit the flooding threat. Temps will trend cooler as the series of cold fronts move thru. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are expected to continue well into the afternoon as a cold front moves across northern Ohio. The weakening cold front should reach NW PA by early evening. Expect to see cloud cover thicken and lower through the day with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. It appears that NW OH may miss out on the showers/thunder as outflow boundaries and better convergence set up further to the east. The better low level convergence and instability will be located over the eastern half of northern Ohio into western PA. Have placed a couple hour tempo group in the TAF`s from KCLE to KMFD and points eastward. Expect to see all of the shower/thunder activity that can develop to be east of the region by sunset. Winds will be southeast to south this morning. KERI area may see winds a bit more gusty with the downsloping conditions. All locations will become gusty this afternoon from the south and southwest. Current thinking is that wind gusts should be around 25 knots but could be slightly higher. Will have to watch for stronger gusts near the stronger thunderstorms that can develop. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... South winds should stay just under sca levels into Thu then veer to west later Thu and Thu night with the passage of a cold front. The front will stall then briefly move back north of the lake Fri before getting pulled back se of the lake by Sat. The front will again stall and then lift back north of the lake briefly Sun night before getting pulled well se of the lake Mon and Mon night as a stronger low lifts nne of the lake. Winds will be changing back and forth as the front wavers back and forth across the lake Fri thru Mon while wind speeds should stay under 20 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Adams

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