Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 290154
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
A weak frontal boundary will push south of the area tonight. High
pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday and
slowly sink south on Tuesday. Another cold front will move south
across the area on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers and thunderstorms have weakened. There is still a minimal
chance for some activity across the southern tier this evening.
Otherwise, it should remain dry for the rest of the night.
Modified weather and clouds to account for current trends.
Area of showers and thunderstorms that developed out ahead of the
cold front continues to move east along the south shore of Lake
Erie. Coverage has decreased across northwest Ohio as the gust
front has pushed south towards the Findlay area. We are also
finally starting to see some storms developing across northeast
Ohio where bands of cu have developed. The better upper level
support will continue to shift to the east but 2000 J/kg of ML
Cape remain across much of the area where thunderstorms have not
occurred yet. Expect scattered storms to continue to fire this
evening along outflow boundaries and the weak front sinking south.
Shear should not be insufficient for too many storms to approach
severe limits to the south but cluster along the lakeshore remains
energetic and a few severe storms are possible. Activity should
greatly diminish by 9 pm. Temperatures will bottom out into the
upper 60s most areas with locations downwind of Lake Erie holding
closer to 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday.
North to northeast winds will bring lower dewpoints from Canada to
the forecast area and a break from the humidity. Subsidence will
ensure dry conditions through at least Tuesday with highs in the
The next in a series of upper level troughs will slide southeast
from Quebec into Ontario on Wednesday. The associated surface low
pressure system will move across James Bay into Ontario with a back
door cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday. Will
carry a low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast as the front
comes through. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 80s on
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather during the long term. The
models are in decent agreement with high pressure over the area.
Will end up going with four dry days. The only day this may be
problematic is Thursday. Cold air advection will be ongoing across
the area but think it will be too dry for precip. The models tend to
underestimate the dry air advection with the northeast flow
expected. Temperatures will average below normal Thursday and Friday
but readings will climb back to the lower 80s for the holiday
weekend as the surface ridge slides off to the east.
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Weak wind shift/front moving across the region triggered
thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Most of these are weakening
and moving south of all the taf sites. Still some showers near
the OH/PA border and NW Ohio. Most of this will dissipate near or
after 01z. Since the airmass will not dry all that much in the
wake of the boundary there will be potential for some mvfr, maybe
ifr, fog. Locations that had rainfall will have the greatest
chance of seeing the fog. Otherwise light northerly winds will
increase slightly on Monday. Looks like there will only be some
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with thunderstorms along a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
A weak cold front will push south of the lake tonight. Northeast
flow will develop by morning but sustained speeds should comfortably
remain under 15 knots. Northeast flow will continue late Monday
then winds will become light and variable for a time as high
pressure settles over the region. Another cold front will arrive
sometime Wednesday with northerly flow returning during the
afternoon. There will be good push of cold air behind this second
front. Suspect the models may be under doing the winds and we may
briefly get close to small craft criteria. Northerly flow will
continue into Friday and then become northeast to east as another
high builds in from the north.