Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261048 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 648 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER CU FORMATION AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST UPPER S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT NEAR ERI BY EVENING. NORTH WINDS OFF OF LERI WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAW WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 50 WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER S/W`S ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCT SHRA SHOULD GET MORE NUMEROUS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW VERSUS RAIN. SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND GROUND TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING...DON`T SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION OCCURRING AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IF ANY ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE SO LITTLE CHANGES. THE PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE MON THEN GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THRU TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. DAYTIME HEATING ON MON SHOULD CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON THEN THE AIRMASS WARMS A FEW DEGREES ALOFT SO EVEN WITH SURFACE COOLING MON NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AS RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ON MON...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME ON TUE BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ON WED...A REINFORCING PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY THRU BUT BY WED NIGHT THE SHRA SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO REGION DROPPING SOUTHEAST. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS MUCH DEEPER. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HOWEVER FOR CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SITUATION BEGINS TO IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS REALLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE HOWEVER BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BEING CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY SATURDAY MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER GA WITH A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HOWEVER ALSO SHOWS A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE ON BOTH MODELS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SKIES CLEAR ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING CIGS LOWERING TO BKN-OVC050 WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA TOWARDS MORNING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA MON. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE MAKING FOR A CHOPPY SOUTHERN NEARSHORE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AM THINKING WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP OFF. THURSDAY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY ELEVATE WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. FOR NOW HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEAR TERM. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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