Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010159 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over western Kentucky will slowly lift north into lower Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area Monday. Large area of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes Monday and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Latest HRRR model trying to match itself with reality with patches of rain occurring through the night. Some locations may get hit with a stray shower passing through while others like northwest Pennsylvania and extreme northeast Ohio will get caught under the large batch of showers moving north across western Pennsylvania late in the overnight hours. Another area will move northwest into the western portions of the area. So, this makes pinpointing the forecast rather difficult so I tried to highlight the best locations where rain will occur overnight. Will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms because just about any where in the area could see a stray cell or two produce some thunder. Otherwise, temperatures are not going too far with all of the clouds and showers around at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models coming into a little better agreement on the track and timing of the low. But the models are a little slower ejecting the low than they were yesterday. The upper level low drifts north into Lower Michigan by Saturday evening. Both the upper level and surface low linger over the Central Lakes Sunday. Best focus will be over the Central Lakes into the primary snowbelt area. High pressure finally starts to eject the low on Monday. Left chance pops going in the east because models still may be a tad fast with the low...and potential for some lake enhanced showers off the lake with 850mb temps around 8c. Very little change in the temps through Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The models are in reasonably good agreement with the upper low finally sliding off the east coast later Monday/Monday night. There is still a hint of low pressure aloft left behind as the rex block forms over the Great Lakes but let us assume that there will be enough high pressure and subsidence given the time of year that dry weather will prevail through mid week. Not very confident about the timing of next cold front. It will likely have to wait for the tropical system going up the east coast unless a weakening front sneaks through quick enough as suggested by the ECMWF. Will mention a small chance of showers Thursday for northwest Ohio and keep a small chance of showers Friday given the uncertainty. Temperatures should rebound nicely as the ridge builds aloft with highs in the 70s. It will get cooler later in the week but not very confident on the forecast temps until we figure out the timing of the next front and the amount of clouds and showers. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Upper level low pressure system will continue to spin over the area with occasional showers. Showers have been decreasing in coverage but will continue at times through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible but not enough coverage to include in any of the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are filling in with periods of IFR developing overnight, especially in the 06-13Z. The low will gradually start to shift north on Saturday with easterly winds shifting around to the south. Ceilings will improve through the day Saturday and be VFR most areas by 17Z. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into Monday. && .MARINE... The east winds will gradually relax and as the persistent low pressure area over the Ohio Valley weakens and drifts back toward the Great Lakes this weekend but the wind and waves will remain high enough to keep the small craft advisory posted into tonight. The flow will veer more from the south over the weekend and then veer northwest on Monday as the low moves east. High pressure will build in Monday and Tuesday. The center of the surface high over eastern Canada will result in winds veering all the way northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday so the west half of the lake could get a bit choppy. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>147.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.