Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 312301 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 701 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM JUST WEST OF TOL TO NEAR VPZ. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR TOL TO ACKNOWLEDGE A FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH FALL TYPE PATTERN SET UP OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS CONVECTION. WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AS A BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE MAY BE ON AND THE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE 12ZS ECMWF BRINGS THE SOUTH FLOW RIGHT BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND PUTS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG GIVEN THE RATHER FLAT LOOK OF THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...A LARGE ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION AND OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS THERE WILL PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LIKELY END UP IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TUESDAY ON. WE WILL END UP NEEDING "LIKELY" POPS FOR SOME FORECAST PERIODS BUT NOT SURE WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE YET. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CREEPING ABOVE NORMAL SINCE DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUN SETS AND TEMPS START TO COOL. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM 12 TO 13Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF IFR FOG BUT AT THIS TIME JUST NOT SURE WHETHER ANY WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT UPPER ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A CU FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHC ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INDUCE A LAKEBREEZE SO LIGHT WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTH AT CLE AND NW AT ERI FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... THE SOUTHWEST WIND HAS BEEN A BIT BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ERIE TODAY BUT THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALMOST OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL SIDES OF THE LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL TURN THE WIND FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND THE NORTH FLOW COULD LINGER ON SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...KOSARIK

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