Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 021402 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1002 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CONTINUED TO MENTION FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT IS SLOW TO LIFT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CLOUDS HEADED TOWARD NW OH...WHICH ARE EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IN THE HIGHS AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A CHECK OF THE WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH "AREAS OF DENSE FOG" IN THE MORNING FORECAST. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ANTICIPATING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER RECOVERY WHERE IT IS FOGGY. NO OTHER CHANGES. INITIAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION... WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FOG THIS MORNING. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IS INCREASING AND THE DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL OFTEN TERMINATE THE FOG FORMATION BUT WHERE IT HAS DECOUPLED THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING. WILL MENTION "PATCHY/AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY" IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS CREPT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN INDIANA AND WILL FUEL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR EAST AS TOLEDO AND EVEN PORT CLINTON BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM OR INSTABILITY TO GET THE ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST. WE WILL SEE SOME DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS NW OHIO THIS MORNING. SOME THINNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REACH NE OH BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SW OHIO YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. LOWER/MID 70S FOR NE OH/NW PA EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE HILLS OF NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TIMING THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS IS TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH NW OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OUTRUN THE FRONT BUT THE WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NW OHIO ...PERHAPS AS FAR AS NE OHIO DURING FRIDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE SLOWER AND WE WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DECENT SHEAR SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT IF WE GET ENOUGH DCAPE THERE WOULD BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR DOWNBURSTS. WILL MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM SO THE TEMP AT ANY SPOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT MAY NOT RAIN UNTIL LATER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW. I SUSPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A STEADY RAIN. MUCH COOLER WITH NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL HEAD DOWN INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S BUT WILL NOT FORECAST LOWS AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS AND A BREEZE. THE MODELS QUICKLY BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEGA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 1000 TO 700 MB MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ROTATES SWATHS OF 70 PLUS PERCENT INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHS. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG AND COULD POSSIBLY MODIFY TO THE POINT THAT AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS SLOWED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO TOLEDO AND FINDLAY CONSIDERABLY SO WILL HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSE TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THIS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS ON THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ON FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REALLY INCREASE. WILL LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY NEED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR SOME TIME. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.