Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 140123 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 823 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY ON MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... UPDATED...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. STILL SNOWING IN THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WERE WOBBLING NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING GOING FOR ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES SINCE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL GETTING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. ELSEWHERE THE SNOW HAS BECOME VERY CONVECTIVE LOOKING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES TO EXPIRE. WORST CASE IN HIS REGION OR UNDER ANY OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AN INCH OR OR SO. TI WILL BE COLD TONIGHT BUT THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO ALL WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO MINUS 10 OR COLDER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES ACROSS NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE THEN WILL AWAIT A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TOT EH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE PEAKING AND EXPECT THE FLOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. BY LATE TONIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND THE THREAT FOR ICING WILL BE OVER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER OHIO AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A PAIR OF LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY HEADLINES. GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXPECT THERE TO BE A LOT OF ICE ON THE LAKE AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DIMINISHING TREND WITH NIGHTFALL FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS...LONGER PERIODS BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO LONGER PERIODS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES REMAIN FOR CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. LITTLE OR NO SNOW FOR TOL/FDY/MFD. LAKE HURON CONNECTED BAND INTO ERIE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT MAY WOBBLE BACK WESTWARD LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN ERI...SNOW ENDS/TAPERS TO FLURRIES BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ERI CHANCE REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA NEAR 00Z MON. OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EASTERN SITES. NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE LAKE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN MORNING WILL TURN OUT OF THE SE THEN SOUTH LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014- 020>023-029>033-038-089. PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061- 146>149-166>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...ADAMS

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