Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 270555
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017
A trough of low pressure extended from Wisconsin to Texas along
a cold front. Low pressure will strengthen in Arkansas along
the front this evening and move north to the central Great Lakes
overnight. Thursday the low will continue north into Canada and
the trailing cold front will sweep east across the area.
Thursday night and early Friday high pressure will briefly build
into the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Not many changes to the forecast. Have been watching the storms
moving across the northwest tip of OH. This activity should
miss the local area to the northwest and do not see any chances
for precip till after daybreak. There will be an increase in
clouds from the blow off so will bump temps up a
tad...especially in the west.
Previous...Satellite loop shows an upper disturbance moving
into the mean upper trough in Texas with deep convection
developing ahead of it through northeast Texas Arkansas and
Missouri. This short wave will move through the base of the
trough this evening reaching the Tennessee Valley overnight
giving a negative tilt to the whole system. This should
effectively keep convection to our west overnight. Will keep
forecast partly cloudy/mostly clear through the evening and much
of the overnight. Towards/just before sunrise however will
begin to increase clouds in the west. Lows in the lower 60s
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will move east across the area during the day as the
deepening surface low moves north of the central lakes into
Canada. Guidance showing only chance pops for western counties
Thursday but feel that with the strength of the system and the
deep moisture feeding into the area favor keeping likely pops in
for the west. Do believe however that there will be more
thunderstorms east in the afternoon vs west in the morning so
will have a chance of thunderstorms mentioned along with the
likely pops. Further east will have thunderstorm chances
agree with pops. Some storms could be strong to near severe
limits. By late afternoon will end pops west and clouds should
break. Thursday night and early Friday weak high pressure will
build in. Friday afternoon however isentropic lift in warm
advection ahead of low pressure in the central plains will move
into the area from the west. Could see a few showers/storms
west toward evening so will have a small pop. Friday night as a
surface waves moves to our north this developing front will drop
south into the area. The GFS takes the boundary a bit further
south vs the NAM however both show ample moisture across the
area. Still some question as to how much forcing will be in
place for the day as the best unstable air drops to the OH river
by afternoon. Will go with likely pops in the afternoon but
well keep thunderstorms at chance. Low pressure will move north
through the central plains Sunday lifting the front back as a
warm front on Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another upper level low will move out of the OK/KS area Sunday and
slow move ne across the lakes thru Tue then another upper low will
dig into the MS valley by late Wed. This will lead to a wet pattern
with fronts and waves of low pressure pushing through the region.
The on and off nature of the bands of rain should help to limit the
Temps will trend cooler as the series of cold fronts move thru.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue well into the afternoon
as a cold front moves across northern Ohio. The weakening cold
front should reach NW PA by early evening. Expect to see cloud
cover thicken and lower through the day with increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms. It appears that NW OH may miss out
on the showers/thunder as outflow boundaries and better
convergence set up further to the east. The better low level
convergence and instability will be located over the eastern
half of northern Ohio into western PA. Have placed a couple hour
tempo group in the TAF`s from KCLE to KMFD and points eastward.
Expect to see all of the shower/thunder activity that can
develop to be east of the region by sunset.
Winds will be southeast to south this morning. KERI area may see
winds a bit more gusty with the downsloping conditions. All
locations will become gusty this afternoon from the south and
southwest. Current thinking is that wind gusts should be around
25 knots but could be slightly higher. Will have to watch for
stronger gusts near the stronger thunderstorms that can
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
South winds should stay just under sca levels into Thu then veer to
west later Thu and Thu night with the passage of a cold front. The
front will stall then briefly move back north of the lake Fri before
getting pulled back se of the lake by Sat. The front will again
stall and then lift back north of the lake briefly Sun night before
getting pulled well se of the lake Mon and Mon night as a stronger
low lifts nne of the lake. Winds will be changing back and forth as
the front wavers back and forth across the lake Fri thru Mon while
wind speeds should stay under 20 knots.