Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 160438 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1238 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE DIURNAL SHSN HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SHSN. STILL NOT GETTING AN HRRR MODEL RUNS BUT LATEST RUC STILL HAS LAST OF MEASURABLE SHSN ENDING BY 05Z. BASED ON THE RUC AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT PIX...LOOKS LIKE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE SO NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. FROM HERE ON OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD JUST A HALF AN INCH OR LESS HERE AND THERE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. I WILL WORK SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SHOWERS IN NW OHIO AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NE OH AND NW PA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -2C FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. RIGHT NOW I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY`S RIDGE WILL ELEVATE POPS ACROSS THE TOLEDO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LOW AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LAST OF THE COLD WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BEHIND US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS COOL ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE GONE BY MORNING AS FLOW WEAKENS AND AIRMASS DRIER FURTHER. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS AT KYNG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THEN LIFT TO VFR. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WIND ACROSS THE LAKE DIMINISHES IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...THEN GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR PASSAGE OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GARNET NEAR TERM...GARNET SHORT TERM...GARNET LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...TK MARINE...MAYERS

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