Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 021726 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED. UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST- SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES. THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...KUBINA

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