Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290154 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will push south of the area tonight. High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday and slowly sink south on Tuesday. Another cold front will move south across the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms have weakened. There is still a minimal chance for some activity across the southern tier this evening. Otherwise, it should remain dry for the rest of the night. Modified weather and clouds to account for current trends. Previous discussion... Area of showers and thunderstorms that developed out ahead of the cold front continues to move east along the south shore of Lake Erie. Coverage has decreased across northwest Ohio as the gust front has pushed south towards the Findlay area. We are also finally starting to see some storms developing across northeast Ohio where bands of cu have developed. The better upper level support will continue to shift to the east but 2000 J/kg of ML Cape remain across much of the area where thunderstorms have not occurred yet. Expect scattered storms to continue to fire this evening along outflow boundaries and the weak front sinking south. Shear should not be insufficient for too many storms to approach severe limits to the south but cluster along the lakeshore remains energetic and a few severe storms are possible. Activity should greatly diminish by 9 pm. Temperatures will bottom out into the upper 60s most areas with locations downwind of Lake Erie holding closer to 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday. North to northeast winds will bring lower dewpoints from Canada to the forecast area and a break from the humidity. Subsidence will ensure dry conditions through at least Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s. The next in a series of upper level troughs will slide southeast from Quebec into Ontario on Wednesday. The associated surface low pressure system will move across James Bay into Ontario with a back door cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday. Will carry a low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast as the front comes through. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 80s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will dominate the weather during the long term. The models are in decent agreement with high pressure over the area. Will end up going with four dry days. The only day this may be problematic is Thursday. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the area but think it will be too dry for precip. The models tend to underestimate the dry air advection with the northeast flow expected. Temperatures will average below normal Thursday and Friday but readings will climb back to the lower 80s for the holiday weekend as the surface ridge slides off to the east. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Weak wind shift/front moving across the region triggered thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Most of these are weakening and moving south of all the taf sites. Still some showers near the OH/PA border and NW Ohio. Most of this will dissipate near or after 01z. Since the airmass will not dry all that much in the wake of the boundary there will be potential for some mvfr, maybe ifr, fog. Locations that had rainfall will have the greatest chance of seeing the fog. Otherwise light northerly winds will increase slightly on Monday. Looks like there will only be some afternoon cumulus. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with thunderstorms along a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... A weak cold front will push south of the lake tonight. Northeast flow will develop by morning but sustained speeds should comfortably remain under 15 knots. Northeast flow will continue late Monday then winds will become light and variable for a time as high pressure settles over the region. Another cold front will arrive sometime Wednesday with northerly flow returning during the afternoon. There will be good push of cold air behind this second front. Suspect the models may be under doing the winds and we may briefly get close to small craft criteria. Northerly flow will continue into Friday and then become northeast to east as another high builds in from the north. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Lombardy SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Kubina

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