Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 222328 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 628 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS ILLINOIS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CHICAGO. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS GOOD MODEL SUPPORT IN NW OHIO FOR SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS RAMPING UP BETWEEN 06-12Z. LARGER FORECAST QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDS ON LONGER IN THE EAST AND QPF WILL BE LOWER...BUT EXPECT MOST OF OHIO TO SEE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY RAMPS UP LATE. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO FILL IN AND SOME PARTS OF NW PA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. NO CHANGES MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPS UP INTO NW OHIO TUESDAY BRINGING A DECREASE IN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NE OHIO AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS BUT GIVEN .75-1.00 PW VALUES AND ENERGY RIDING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALONG THIS AXIS...FELT 50-60 PERCENT POPS WERE STILL NECESSARY...EVEN WITH BREAKS EXPECTED. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NW OHIO. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. RAIN WILL FILL BACK IN AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST QPF NOW FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED. INCLUDED .50-.75 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NW OHIO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE EAST. GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER FOR DAY 2-3 AND DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF A GFS/GEM/ECMWF BLEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO STATE LINE...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT OCCLUDES AND TRACKS NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH. STRONGER WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NW OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. GIVEN HOW WARM WE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH IN THE UPPER 50S NOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE OHIO...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW. CARRIED A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AS WE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SO STILL EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEAR NEAR THE TOLEDO AREA WHERE DEFORMATION CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO LINGER AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS OR NW PA WHERE LIFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN KEEPS PRECIP GOING A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON CHRISTMAS AND THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL THEN BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NOT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT BUT WILL STILL MENTION SOME RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AS IT PASSES ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD SO ANY LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL. BEYOND SATURDAY THE MODELS ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL NOT PLACE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. AFTER THAT SOME POSSIBLE DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF A KMFD TO KCLE LINE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KERI. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE TO GALE FORCE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT EACH OF THE THEM INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DRIVEN TO THE SURFACE BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL AND ARE TYPICAL WHEN STRONG WINDS OCCUR. SO WITH THAT SAID WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH DETROIT AND BUFFALO AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH STARTING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE NEXT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT CROSS LAKE ERIE UNTIL SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...DJB MARINE...MULLEN

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