Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241332 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 932 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move south of the area this morning. A high pressure ridge will slowly build southeast across the western Great Lakes region by Tuesday morning. The ridge will shift east across the area Wednesday and to the east coast by Wednesday night. Low pressure will move east across the area late Wednesday night into Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Flow across the Great Lakes is becoming better aligned and this is evident over northern Lake Michigan and eastern Lake Superior where bands of shower activity has developed. As the cold front slides further south today, the flow should become well aligned in the northeast to allow showers to develop off Lake Erie. 850 MB temperatures drop down to -2 degrees C as compared to lake surface temperature of 17 degrees C. This supports only conditional instability over the lake today. Beginning to see a connection to Lake Huron going into nw PA. Otherwise, rest of the forecast area should remain dry through the day. As cold air advection takes place, air mass across the area will be noticeable cooler today than they were yesterday. Temperatures across the central and east will essentially hold steady. A small rise is expected across the west. No significant changes were made with this mid morning update.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wind flow will begin to shift to a more east to northeast direction tonight as the high pressure ridge begins to build east across the area. Expecting fair weather to be the rule across the region through Tuesday evening under the influence of a building upper level ridge and surface high pressure ridge over the local region. As the high pressure ridge at the surface pushes east, this should set the state for some slight warm air advection behind a weak warm frontal boundary. Low pressure is progged to move east toward northern ohio and northwest Pennsylvania by Wednesday night. A fairly good swath of moisture is expected with the storm system and this will bring a return back to some rain showers late Tuesday through Thursday night. Some fairly strong cold air advection will take place, especially Tuesday night, across the forecast area. Low temperatures will drop well into the 30s most area. 850 mb temperatures will drop to between -2 degrees C and -4 degrees C by Tuesday night across the eastern half of the forecast area. Warm air advection in the mid levels will be protruding into the western areas of the forecast area by Tuesday into Tuesday night. Further warming aloft will take place by Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not many changes to the long term today. The models have the typical timing issues so some uncertainty remains. Friday will see the area on the backside of a departing system. Some showers are possible through midday downwind of the lake. Another strong system will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region for the start of the weekend. Precip appears likely on Saturday with instability showers downwind of the lake into Sunday. Already had precip chances in most of the period and see no reason for changes. Temperatures during the period will average a couple degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... As expected most of the area is seeing strato cu cigs. Much of this is VFR but pockets of MVFR are persisting. Any remaining MVFR cigs should lift by midday but cigs will persist over the eastern half to two thirds of the area through the afternoon. Skies should clear in the far west after 18z. Latest guidance continues to hint at showers over the east end of the area. Will continue with a tempo mention at ERI. Skies will clear from west to east after dark. NW to N flow has diminished some but gusts in excess of 20 knots are likely again after 15z. Winds will diminish quickly tonight. OUTLOOK...Areas of non VFR late Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... The surface cold front has pushed south of the lake causing the flow to become northerly. Winds will become more northwest during the day today and expect small craft conditions to develop. Have not made any changes to the headlines. It will be Tuesday before High Pressure moves over the lake and causes the winds to diminish. The flow will become easterly Tuesday night and increase on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system. Low pressure will move over the lake on Thursday with southerly flow becoming northwest behind the low. More small craft headlines appear likely for the end of the workweek. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Kubina is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.