Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 311440 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 940 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDY IN THE EAST WITH WAA...SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID TWEAKED CLOUD COVER. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. WARM ADVECTION IS GENERATING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAS PRODUCED CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY. SINCE THERE WILL BE LESS SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. HAD ALREADY GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SO WILL NOT ADJUST HIGHS DOWNWARD AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PLAINS LOW TO MOVE CLOSER. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE ERIE AND CLIP PORTIONS OF NW PA. AT THIS POINT ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. THE REGION WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD NUDGE HIGHS INTO THE 20S...MAYBE EVEN TOUCH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PATH OF THE 8H LOW IN EACH MODEL RUN. ITS TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURS. FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD A ECMWF/GFS BLEND WHICH TAKES THE 8H LOW FROM ABOUT MARION SUNDAY EVENING EASTWARD TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS TRACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER THE LATEST INDICATIONS PLACE IT FROM FINDLAY TO NEAR CLEVELAND. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT THE LOCATION FOR THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY NOT BECOME EVIDENT UNTIL THE HEAVY SNOW HAS BEGUN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL START AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE 8H LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT AMOUNTS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRAPHICS HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE DID TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE CIPS DATA FROM ST LOUIS UNIVERSITY WHICH LOOKS AT THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN AND GIVES OUTPUT FROM EVENTS OF THE PAST. IT INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE 4 OR MORE INCHES WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES COMMON. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN CASES WHERE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN THIS PATTERN IT IS ONLY INDICATING THAT THIS OCCURS 20 OR SO PERCENT OF THE TIME. SO IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF AROUND A FOOT. SO WITH ALL THIS SAID WE WILL HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THE WATCH AT THIS POINT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE TO PLACE THIS GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION INTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO DIP BELOW ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FLATTENED RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CANADA CONTRIBUTE TO A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH FOR EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS US ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH A TEMPORARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. HAVE LINGERED SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...BUT POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL DETERMINE IF THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. H8 TEMPERATURES DIP TO COLDER THAN -14C...WITH DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD YET AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. LIMITED LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE ICE COVERAGE...BUT STILL COULD PERPETUATE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND AREA COULD SEE SUB-ZERO LOWS AGAIN. THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A SLIGHT WARMUP IS FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VFR DAY TODAY WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND UNDER 12KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL BE ON THE RADAR FOR TOL/FDY NEAR MIDNIGHT SPREADING EAST THROUGH 12Z MON. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK TO IFR AS SOON AS OR VERY SOON AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. WINDS TO START WILL BE LIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF TAF SITES. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLOSE SHIPPING LANES AND MAKE FOR DIFFICULT NAVIGATION. PRESSURING AND RIDGING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS ALSO FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON ARRIVES MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...DJB/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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