Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271209 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 709 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SNOW BAND IS SHIFTING EAST AS EXPECTED WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES IN LORAIN COUNTY SO FAR...AND AROUND AN INCH AT THE AIRPORT. THE BAND IS LESS INTENSE NOW AND MOVING SO THINK LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE SUFFICIENT THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL WANE SOME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE APPROACHES. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE ERIE. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS LORAIN COUNTY AND ARE INCREASING IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY NEAR 40 DBZ IN THE BAND COMING OFF THE LAKE BUT SUSPECT THERE MAY BE BRIGHT BANDING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS AROUND TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DISRUPTS THIS BAND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE MINOR GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LORAIN COUNTY. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO THE MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE 700MB FRONT. IN FACT AS TEMPERATURES NEAR 700MB COOL BY 4C WE SEE A VERY UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE TO 650MB. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES AND ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT DURING THIS WINDOW. THIS WINDOW WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER REALLY STRIPS AWAY BETWEEN 03-06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET PULLED EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. RAISED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OHIO SNOW BELT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME ACCUMULATING AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. WE MAY END UP NEED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FOR ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW ENDS ACROSS MOST OF OHIO PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...LINGERING THE LONGEST TOWARDS ERIE PENNSYLVANIA. AFTER A COOL NIGHT...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY GET TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND AFTER HAVING TO OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY LIGHT QPF. WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...COOLEST IN PENNSYLVANIA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL THIS FAR OUT IF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OR RAIN AS TEMPS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE. HOPEFULLY LATER SHIFTS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO PINPOINT THE PRECIP TYPE. SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A PESKY LITTLE BAND OF SNOW JUST DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW ON KCLE IN AN HOUR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. HAVE GIVEN THE EASTERN TAF SITES A COUPLE MENTION THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALL AREAS BY 18Z. A FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF KCLE. BY MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING. SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFT 06Z. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY NW TODAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT. && .MARINE... HAVE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S OR SW BEHIND THE RIDGE. SLOWLY INCREASING TO S TO SW FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BEHIND THAT FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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