Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 302010 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 410 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A COUPLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. AT THIS POINT THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION ON RADAR. WILL LIKELY DROP WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDINA TO HOLMES COUNTY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. STILL SOME JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MICHIGAN. THESE AREA NOT AS STRONG BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE LAST PIECE OF JET ENERGY SHOULD PASS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN FOCUS WITH SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A LITTLE DRIER SO HAVING A HARD TIME MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE...MAYBE CHANCE ACROSS NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRIER FOR THE REGION AND NO NEW RAINFALL. MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INT EH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH. A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...KEPT POPS LOW. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE EC TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND KEEPS THINGS DRY THROUGH SUN. THE EC PUSHES IN THE NEXT TROUGH MUCH FASTER...AND DEFLECTS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS GOING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/THUNDER INTO SUN NIGHT. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME. THE EC SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT 500 MB...WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT PATTERN...THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE EC INSTEAD OF THE DRIER/SLOWER GFS. HOWEVER...NOT CALLING FOR A WASH OUT. JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK TO MVFR IF NOT ALREADY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVES EAST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO GET MORE CONVECTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE THIS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST. STILL POCKETS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A VORT MAX WILL RIP DOWN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY...EJECTING ACROSS SERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...VCTS POSSIBLE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AROUND 06Z. UNTIL THEN VCTS/VCSH LIKELY. POST RAIN CIGS WILL LIFT SOME...WITH BRIEF HINTS OF CLEARING/VFR...BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO NEAR VFR BY 18Z. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE WIND MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. WED NIGHT THE WIND PICKS UP FROM THE SE ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE BEHIND THE LOW WITH WAVE ACTION INCREASING TO NEAR 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE ALONG NE OH/NW PA BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE NEAR SHORE.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...MAYERS

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