Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230123 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 923 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure developing near the Gulf Coast will deepen as it tracks across northwest Ohio towards Lake Huron Monday evening, pulling a strong cold front east across the area. A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week pulling a secondary cold front across the area. A warm front will lift north early Friday followed by another cold front heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Have slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit for the entire area for Monday. There may be a few spotty showers around in the early-mid morning hours, but the main swath of more moderate rain does not look to arrive across western areas until later in the morning with far eastern areas possibly not seeing any rain until the evening hours. A large area of ongoing convection along the Gulf Coast may limit the amount of moisture that will be able to advect north into the region ahead of the front. Have therefore lowered total QPF amounts slightly. Previous discussion... Widespread rain and falling temperatures on the way to start the week. An upper level trough extending to the Gulf Coast will curl northeast towards the Great Lakes on Monday in advance of a stronger trough digging south out of Canada. Cloud cover will be on the increase late tonight into Monday as deep moisture advects north towards the region. Surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks north towards the area, moving across extreme northwest Ohio on Monday afternoon then rapidly deepening as it reaches Lake Huron Monday night. Widespread rain will overspread the area on Monday with strong upper dynamics as the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted and absorbed into the deepening trough to the west. Precipitation with this system will range from a half inch in the east to almost an inch and a half towards Toledo. A swath of heavier rain will be focused just northwest of our area where stronger frontal forcing will align with a persistent area of mid-level deformation. Lowered high on Monday across the western half of the area where precipitation will arrive by midday. Temperatures are tricky given breezy southeast winds ahead of the system, but thickening cloud cover and increasing showers will have a limiting effect. Downsloping winds will be something to watch along the Erie PA lakeshore late afternoon into evening as winds aloft near 925mb increase to around 50 knots. Hopefully the mixing depth will limit gusts to 40 mph but a few stronger gusts are possible prior to the onset of rain which will help to stabilize the boundary layer. A dry slot will get pulled north across the area on Monday evening and have lowered pops and qpf for Monday night. Showers still likely but breaks in the precip expected. Temperatures will fall as the associated cold front sweeps east across the area. Lows Monday night expected to bottom out in the upper 40s west to lower 50s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will slowly work east across the area Tue thru Wed night. A second cold front should be moving across the cwa Tue night into Wed to bring fairly widespread shra then added lake effect will maintain a good chc for shra later on Wed into Wed night, especially for the NE half. The threat for shra should taper off west to east Wed night thru Thu morning as drier air pushes in from the west and the lake effect potential starts to diminish. The next question is whether boundary layer temps aloft will get cold enough to see some snow mix in Wed night. Based on latest model data, which is a little warmer, don`t see enough potential for some mixing to occur so will not mention the "S" word. Tue will be a transitions day for temps so highs will likely still be close to normal but for Wed highs should be about 10 degrees below normal, struggling to get above 50. Thinking is that if enough clouds are around for shra Wed night then lows should not be able to get much below 40 degrees in those places based on 850 mb temps from minus 1 to minus 3 C. Thu should be a little warmer than Wed as some warm advection gets going by late in the day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm advection will increase Thursday night into Friday as the next storm system approaches. Cold front will move across the region on Friday but the amount of low level moisture is uncertain. So for now will only go with chance POP`s Friday into Saturday. There will be a lull in the rain chances at some point but the upper level trough will be in place through Sunday. A reinforcing surge of cooler air may arrive late Sunday with an increase in shower coverage. Friday will be the warm day of the long term with temperatures very close to seasonal averages. Cooler Saturday into Sunday with highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR conditions will continue until late tonight before lower clouds arrive from the southwest in advance of approaching low pressure. Moisture will surge north into the area on Monday ahead of a low pressure system that will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley and deepen as it tracks towards northwest Ohio. Ceilings will abruptly lower to MVFR and eventually IFR as rain begins on Monday. Widespread rain is expected across the area but will not reach the eastern sites until after 18Z. MVFR to IFR visibilities can be expected in rain. Southerly downsloping winds will become gusty at ERI after 06Z and at all of the eastern terminals by the morning hours. OUTLOOK...Areas if Non-VFR in rain through Wednesday. Some snow may occur Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MARINE... A cold front with a wave moving along the front will push east across lake Erie Mon and Mon night. This will lead to increasing south winds to about 15 to 25 knots that will turn west to northwest with frontal passage Mon night and may increase to 30 knots briefly. Winds should settle down slightly by late Tue and back to southwest briefly until a reinforcing cold front crosses the lake to veer winds more west again for Wed. Weak high pressure shifting east across the lake will diminish winds for Wed night into Thu then another low should be moving thru the lakes to produce an increasing south wind for Fri. However, differences in model timing and strength of the low leaves a good amount of uncertainty in the forecast by Fri. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Mottice SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Adams

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