Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210221 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 921 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast out of the Plains overnight and lift another warm front across the area on Saturday. An upper level trough will close off along the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl up the east coast on Monday focusing a plume of moisture from the Atlantic towards the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Some areas of dense fog continues to develop along the lakeshore at this time. Some reporting sites reporting 1/8th of a mile in visibility. Until push of warm air arrives to the lakeshore around 5 AM, will issue a dense fog advisory until 5 AM. This will be along the immediately lakeshore. Otherwise, patchy drizzle possible under the low stratus clouds but expect it to be really light. As warm front interacts with deeper moisture in the northeast, can`t rule out an isolated light shower. Temperatures should be nearly steady state through the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Well above normal temperatures will continue over the weekend and warmed highs on Saturday to be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Mansfield record high near 58 degrees and Youngstown of 59 degrees are both in jeopardy of being broken while other sites are all in the mid to upper 60s. Expecting the overnight drizzle to come to an end as the warm front lifts north again and with the airmass dries aloft. Although the stratus may thin some during the afternoon, not expecting too many breaks to develop until late in the day. By that time mid and high cloud will be on the increase again so will just call sky cover mostly cloudy. If any significant breaks develop then temperatures could be warmer. Upper level low will close off along the Gulf States on Sunday and curl northeast up the coast on Monday. This system will be nearly vertically stacked with favorable easterly flow and moisture transport off the Atlantic in advance of the system. Raised pops to categorical on Sunday night and Monday given the favorable moisture transport and PW values near 1 inch. Some uncertainty remains with how long the rain will linger which will depend on the evolution of this system. If it stalls along the Mid-Atlantic then rain could continue longer versus drifting north and losing that connection. Rain bands will eventually diminish and decrease in coverage with time as the system becomes increasingly wrapped up. QPF during the Sunday-Monday time frame is expected to range from a third of an inch in the west to up to an inch in the east but this will need to be refined over the weekend. At this time expecting some additional rises on area rivers with only minor flooding. Temperatures in the Toledo area and northwest Ohio will start to drop off on Sunday as a northeasterly flow develops off Lake Erie. Northerly flow expected to increase all areas by Monday with highs dropping back into the low to mid 40s on the north side of the system. The airmass may finally cool enough for some mix with snow with lingering precipitation on Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term begins Tuesday with the GFS and ECMWF in agreement showing one upper low pulling east out of the area followed by another dropping across the Great Lakes region from the northwest Thursday and Friday. At the surface...low pressure will move through the region Wednesday dragging a cold front through during the day. For Tuesday...will have low chance pops for a mix northeast with lingering moisture from the departing low. For Wednesday will have chance pops for rain in place as warmer air moves into the area ahead of the low. The cold front will follow during the day. Moist air will continue to flow in to the area behind the low as colder air moves in so will have primarily snow forecast for Wednesday night. Most areas chance pops should be fine but will have likely pops northeast. Thursday through Friday the upper low swings across the Great Lakes keeping at least scattered rain/snow showers in place. Temps mild to start but trending toward normal Thursday int0 Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Conditions continue to improve especially in the south where it has become VFR. The northern TAF sites are mainly MVFR but they may briefly jump to VFR as well. Expect conditions to worsen overnight with widespread MVFR cigs with areas of IFR cigs and vsbys. Conditions should again improve Saturday morning with VFR likely most areas by afternoon. There is a lot of dense fog near the lakeshore. Will keep it out of ERI for now but it will need to be watched. The few showers left should dissipate shortly. Light southerly flow will increase to 10 to 15 knots after daybreak. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persisting through much of saturday. Non-VFR developing again Sunday continuing Monday. Non-VFR will likely persist on Tuesday NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... Weather over Lake erie will be dominated by two system over the next several days. First, low pressure over the central plains this evening will move northeast into the western lakes and upper midwest Saturday night and Sunday dragging a warm front north across Lake Erie. The next system will move out of the southern plains Saturday night tracking east across the Tennessee valley Sunday across the central Appalachians Monday into the northeast on Tuesday. Neither system is expected to produce gales on the lakes however northeast flow on Monday may reach small craft advisory levels. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for OHZ003-007>012- 089. PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...TK

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