Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 202350 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 650 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern states will slowly move off the coast this weekend. Low pressure from Colorado will track to the western Great Lakes on Monday with the associated cold front sweeping across the local area Monday night. High pressure will build in from the west through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Made some minor adjustments to the sky cover early tonight to better time the arrival of the stratus, otherwise no changes for the early evening update. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... It`s ended up being a fairly nice day as skies have remained partly sunny and temps have climbed into the lower 40s with winds lighter than Friday. Have been watching the area of stratus approaching from the southwest all day. It`s finally spreading into Ohio and will move across the local area this evening. Warm air advection and moistening of low levels will continue. A strong inversion is expected to remain in place through late tomorrow with very dry air continuing above the inversion. As winds lessen overnight we will likely see some sprinkles or areas of drizzle develop under the inversion. The inversion will remain too strong to allow anything more than that. By midday Sunday only the southern end of the area has a legitimate chance for measurable precip. Already had small chance pops in the forecast and that seems appropriate. Took a close look at boundary layer temps and lows should remain above freezing tonight so there is little threat for freezing or frozen precip. More of the same is expected on Sunday. It will be a gray and warm day with areas of light precip. The inversion is forecast to begin to lift tomorrow night and we should finally be able to develop some more substantial precip overnight. Even then QPF amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. Have bumped precip chances up to likely over NW OH which will be closest to the surface low moving over the western lakes. Temps will be similar to what was in the previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Not too much has changed with regards to the sensible weather and the forecast for the system moving across the Great Lakes Monday night/Tuesday. One round of rain will move across the area between Monday afternoon and Monday night. QPF amounts look similar too and expect around a half inch with upwards of three quarters of an inch across far eastern OH/nw PA. Colder air arrives Tuesday with a transition of rain to snow. There is still some timing differences with the ECMWF the slowest and also differences to the degree of cold air for mid week. Have taken a blended route with this forecast which is similar to the GFSENS. Have snow shower chances continuing primarily for the snowbelt into Tuesday night with the cyclonic flow, but by Wednesday significant drying arrives and precip should be just about over. Have gotten a good look at the lake today with the clear skies. There are decent areas of open water from Huron/Vermilion east to Cleveland and along nearshore waters to the east end. This could provide some lake enhancement but with marginal H8 temperatures, contribution will be low Tuesday night. GFS is the coldest with a pool of -14C. Temperatures running warmest in the slowest ECMWF for Monday and as was the case with precip timing, have taken a blended route. Steady or slowly falling temperatures Tuesday, starting out in the upper 30s/near 40 will fall back to the mid 20s for Tuesday night. Highs near freezing/near normal for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... There still may be a few light shsn or flurries for a while Wed night in the snowbelt until high pressure moves over the area. High pressure, dry wx and near normal temps will start out Thu with temps warming above normal for Fri and Fri night. The relative warmth should continue Sat but moisture should be spreading into the area along with a chc for shra in the west due to a system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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MVFR stratus will spread across the entire forecast area the first half of the night. Ceilings will lower to IFR as drizzle breaks out later tonight or Sunday morning. Not a lot of confidence at each particular TAF site on exactly when that will happen. Once the ceilings lower to IFR and LIFR, they will likely remain IFR/LIFR into Sunday night. The drizzle will likely be intermittent but visibilities may remain sub VFR in fog/mist. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Sunday night. Non-VFR much of the time Monday through Wednesday. Gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Southwest flow on the lake will relax some tonight as high pressure pushes across the lake from the southeast U.S. Low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes Monday night/early Tuesday taking an occluded front and a secondary cold front across the lake Tuesday. Southerly flow will increase Monday, shift to the southwest and increase for Tuesday to 20 to 25 knots. West flow follows for Tuesday night. A trough hangs back across the lakes Wednesday, but high pressure builds overhead for Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Oudeman

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