Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201947 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY GET CLOSER TO NW OHIO. IF THESE INITIAL STORMS DO NOT GET INTO THE TOLEDO AREA THROUGH 00Z WE WILL BE WAITING UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ANY CONVECTION TO ARRIVE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNSET AS WE ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND THE BETTER SHEAR ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONGER WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE ARE A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEADVILLE TO MARION. THIS IS THE REGION THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL HAVE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT WILL MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE REGION EASTWARD INTO NW PA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 70S...MIDDLE TO MAYBE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNEVENTFUL FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. PATTERN BEGINS TO BLOCK AND RARE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR NORMAL AND A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WILL FINALLY SPREAD SSW WIND GUSTS AVERAGING 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE THICKER CIRRUS EXITS THE AREA. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. COMPLICATED FRONTAL SITUATION OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WAVE ON THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SE MI. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO TOL/FDY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH CROSSES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BRINGING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NON-VFR IN THE SHOWERS/TS. BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE MORNING. GUSTS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP AS IS FOR NOW. WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS UP TO THIS POINT SO FAR...BUT EXPECT A HANDFUL OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THOSE WINDS TO PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADV MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEREFORE CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SSW TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHOP ON THE LAKE AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AIDING IN THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. WIND/WAVES SETTLE DOWN SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LAKE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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