Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 291048 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 648 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front over the upper midwest will move slowly east across the area Saturday and be followed by another weak cold front on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The low level jet will feed increasing warmth and moisture into the area this morning leading to an increasingly unstable airmass. Initially, the airmass will support just sct shra in the northern counties, then daytime heating will trigger additional convection this afternoon with the emphasis remaining in the north half of the cwa. The airmass will remain warm and unstable with highs today and Friday in the 80s and lows tonight only from the mid 60s to lower 70s. The unstable nature of the airmass will allow a threat for shra/tsra to continue tonight and Friday. The lack of a strong focus should mean only sct coverage with location likely dependent on outflow boundaries at any given time. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail, especially in the north on Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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Timing on the front early in the short term forecast period remains problematic. Most of the models point toward showers and thunderstorms trying to exit the area Friday night perhaps accompanying a trough or weak initial cold front. Given the approach of the trough aloft, it is likely the actual front (or secondary front) will remain to the west. It may take until Saturday night to get the front east of the area. Instability is not progged to be too high and there may be debris clouds but I would have to think there is a decent chance of additional showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday. The showers/storms could linger into Saturday night, mainly east of I-71. Temperatures on Saturday will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and any showers. Will stick close to guidance with highs not far from normal. The trough will be overhead on Sunday but high pressure at the surface will be building quickly east into the area. I am less impressed with the chance for any instability showers, especially given the fact that the models are now more emphatic about the next weak front coming quickly Sunday night. Will introduce a small chance of showers Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will only be slightly cooler with highs from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM... The forecast will become difficult early next week as the trough aloft lifts out and the ridge aloft builds to the west. The heat will be trying to come east but the battleground will develop somewhere from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic states where showers and thunderstorms will likely occur. Too early to know exactly where that zone will be, it may initially stay just south of the area. It gets more complicated toward mid week as a cut off low from the plains states drifts eastward. Will keep a chance or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day and creep the temperatures up a degree or two each day. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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For the morning, there should mainly just be a small chc for shra for areas closer to Lake Erie. Daytime heating should cause additional shra and tsra to develop but the emphasis will stay north of a line from FDY to MFD to YNG. There may be some decrease in coverage by late evening but the threat for shra/tsra will continue through the night. Areas of late night MVFR fog will probably develop, otherwise VFR should prevail outside of the times when significant rainfall is occurring. SW winds will increase this morning to be gusting 22 to 30 knots then will diminish some this evening. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening into Friday night, then again on Saturday before becoming more isolated for Sunday and Monday.
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&& .MARINE... South to southwest winds will continue to increase this morning on Lake Erie and should peak late this morning with the low level jet. Sustained wind speeds will likely stay just below small craft advisory criteria. Leaning toward not posting a small craft advisory but small craft operators may want to stay close to shore today as the open waters will get choppy with larger waves well out in the open waters. There is a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms and wind and waves will almost certainly be higher in and near storms. The brisk south to southwest flow will continue tonight into Friday. Winds and waves will likely begin to settle down Friday afternoon as the marine layer builds. The next cold front is due on Saturday. The timing on the front is uncertain and winds will shift only slightly from south southwest to west southwest. Wind speeds may be strong enough to consider a small craft advisory on Sunday as pressure rises occur, especially on the east half of the lake. High pressure should be overhead by Monday and conditions should calm down. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Kosarik

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