Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 062048 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 348 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN LAKE ERIE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOWMELT. PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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