Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 222043 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 343 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and drift northward as a warm front Thursday night. A strong low will move across the central Great Lakes Friday night forcing a strong cold front across Ohio and into western Pennsylvania Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Another unseasonably warm night is expected as southwesterly winds increase ahead of a cold front that will sag into the area on Thursday. The front should be close enough toward sunrise to have a mention of showers in the forecast after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Weakening cold front will move into the area Thursday morning but it should stall as it reaches central Ohio. Expect scattered showers to develop along the cold front in the morning with them likely continuing into the afternoon. Warm advection increases Thursday night with showers likely across much of the region. There looks as if there will be enough elevated instability have a mention of thunder in the forecast. The warm front is expected to lift north of the lake at some point on Friday. However there is some uncertainty how much influence the cold lake will have on its movement. Strong jet energy will be moving into the region by Friday afternoon with thunderstorms expected to develop over Indiana or western Ohio. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms has increased significantly. More details will come over the next couple shifts. The cold front moves across the area Saturday morning with the showers slowly ending from west to east. However the showers will linger into Saturday night and should begin to mix with some snow as it ends. Accumulations appear they will be light at this point. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue into Friday. Friday will be the warmest day of the short term with any locations near to slightly above 70 degrees. A few locations will make a run at all time highs for the month of February. Cooler Saturday in the wake of the front with early highs in the 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be moving in from the south on Sunday. This should keep any lingering snow showers confined to northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. All precipitation should come to an end by Sunday evening as the ridge axis moves east of the area. Near normal temperatures on Sunday will warm to a few degrees above normal by Monday as southwesterly flow returns. Large differences continue between the long-range global models next week. The GFS is faster, wetter, and stronger than the ECMWF with a system approaching from the Southern Plains Sunday night into Monday. There is too much uncertainty at this point to go into any details, but it does look like there will at least be a good shot at some snow showers Sunday night changing over to rain on Monday. Both models show another storm system approaching Tuesday night into Wednesday with more rain and temperatures well above normal once again. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... MVFR/IFR conditions are widespread across the area and will continue through the 24 hour TAF period. It is possible a few spots could see low end VFR CIGs for a few hour period later this afternoon into this evening before CIGs lower once again. Fog will develop overnight, with the most dense fog expected in the KTOL/KFDY area. LIFR conditions are expected in many areas overnight into early tomorrow morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues Thursday/Thursday night then returns Friday evening/overnight. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. This will drop a weak cold front south of the lake Thursday turning winds around to the north as they weaken. Winds will turn out of the east Thursday night before veering around to the south on Friday as the front lifts north of the lake as a warm front. Winds will increase to 10-20 knots Friday. A strong cold front will move from west to east across Lake Erie late Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will turn to the southwest behind the front and Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Mottice AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Mottice

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