Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 272038 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 338 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS WIND FLOW BECOMES ORIENTED AROUND 320 DEGREES. THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING TO A 270 DEGREE DIRECTION. COLD AIR WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT HELPING TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW I AM THINKING A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT AREAS AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AS TROUGH PULLS OUT TO THE EAST...LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY MORNING AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAY BREAK. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE LAKE AND UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA GAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN AROUND ZERO IN SOME PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THIS TIME GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG IN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY SUNDAY AND HEAD OUR WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN THE FLOW TO A WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE CHANGE IN THE AIR FLOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL TOTALS COULD REACH 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE TIME THIS SNOW EVENT IS DONE. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER A LONG PERIOD AND WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY START OUT THE PRECIPITATION AS SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY BUT I ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT LUMBERS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION AND ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...ZIPPING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM HAVE SLOWED AND DO NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT SLOW GIVEN THE LACK OF A BIG TROUGH OR WAVE ON THE FRONT BUT WILL COMPROMISE FOR THE MONDAY FORECAST. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS I THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN BUT SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST AND WILL NUDGE FORECAST TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. I WILL HOLD OFF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS JUST WANTS TO GIVE A GLANCING BLOW. DO NOT WANT TO TO BE TOO SLOW GIVEN THE RATHER ZONAL PATTERN BUT ALSO DO NOT WANT TO BE TOO COLD. WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ONE MORE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT THERE WILL BE AT KCLE KERI KYNG AS DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA. NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT. && .MARINE...
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THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN BASIN...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN QUICKLY. THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. THE SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET AWAY WITHOUT HAVING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE THE LARGER WAVES AND WIND WILL BE OUT ON THE OPEN LAKE AND THE CANADIAN SIDE. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AT WHICH POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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