Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201759 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 159 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT A LAKE BREEZE IS DEVELOPING. IT MAY MAKE IT 5 MILES INLAND BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL AFTERNOON. NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE A MILD AFTERNOON EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. SOME CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...IT COULD BE A LITTLE THICKER OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS...MAINLY UP A LITTLE AND ADDED WORDING ABOUT COOLER BECAUSE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT. REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE. S AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...KOSARIK

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