Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 202016 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 316 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE REGION TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO CALM. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS...EXPECTING LOWS TO DIP A BIT FURTHER INTO THE 20S. WE WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS WE COULD GET DUE TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SMALL PERTURBATIONS MOVING QUICKLY EAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DEEP DIGGING TROUGH BY MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED AT BEST. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE SO WILL DROP BACK ON TIMING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND REDUCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY TO CHANCE. MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FORWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND UNTIL WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN STORY WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE OVER EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW AND ITS GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION BY NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY 06Z THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ALL HINGE ON ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT WE ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND MAY REACH THE 40S BUT THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AT A FEW LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS NW OHIO. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON VFR RETURNS LATE MONDAY AND STICKS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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THE LAKE WILL BE QUIET THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK WILL BE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND THEN DEEPENS AS IT ROTATES UP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GALES BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THE WATER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PILE UP ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO AND SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR SHIPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR GALES IN THE HWO FOR NOW BUT WE MAY GO WITH A GALE WATCH BY THE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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