Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301357 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 957 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build into the region Tuesday before a weak trough of low pressure swings through the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. A large area of high pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No big changes to the forecast for today. Started the day off clearer, but still will have fair weather clouds redeveloping. Only chance for precip will be the extreme east with the cold front still to cross. Otherwise, temperatures should be a shade cooler today than yesterday as cooler air pushes into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough will persist for a period of time during the short term forecast period. This will keep the cyclonic flow over the region aloft. A surface trough will rotate east into the local area along with a swath of moisture by Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area. Models are trending toward a drier solution so will drop pops back a few for Wednesday. Weak ridge of high pressure will remain present tonight across the local area. After the surface trough moves east Wednesday, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley region by Thursday and then off the Carolina coast by Thursday night. The high will extend a surface ridge northwest into the forecast area Thursday night. The ridge will begin to break down Friday as a weak wave of low pressure moves east across the southern Great Lakes Friday. This feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday into Friday night. Due to the cyclonic flow aloft, temperatures will drop back into the lower 70s to upper 60s for highs over the next few days and overnight lows in the 50s. As the low approaches by Friday, warm return southwesterly flow will develop producing some warm air advection across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Have made some adjustments to the extended forecast as an active weather pattern appears to be setting up for the weekend. Models had previously shown a cold front pushing south of the area on Saturday but the 00Z model suite is now suggesting the front will not push as far south. Both the 00Z ECMWF/GEM have trended towards an area of low pressure developing across the southern lakes region in advance of a stronger wave moving through the northwest flow aloft. This would cause the front to either stall overhead or lift back north into the area on Saturday. Sufficient differences remain between the models that confidence is low with regard to the strength and track of this low, but have trended pops and temperatures upward on Saturday and Sunday. Have also added a chance of thunderstorms to the forecast as it now appears we will be in the vicinity of the warm front. This will be followed by another cold front late in the weekend and will forecast highs in the 60s all areas by next Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Mid-level clouds and a few stray showers are exiting to the east early this morning. A sct-bkn cumulus deck near 6000 feet is expected today with clouds thickening tonight across northwest Ohio. Southwest winds will be breezy during the afternoon with most sites gusting to 20-25 knots in the 16-23Z window. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue on Lake Erie today with low pressure located north of the Great Lakes. This system will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie on Wednesday. An uptick in winds and waves can be expected along and behind the front but expecting to stay just below Small Craft Advisory criteria as a ridge quickly builds in from the west. This area of high pressure will maintain good marine conditions through Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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