Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 231322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley will
move off the east coast tonight. This will allow a warm front to
lift north of the area early Friday. An upper level low will
drift across the Central Lakes this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Have backtracked on clouds and slowed their spread across the
area. There should be a lot of sunshine today. Temps tricky for
this afternoon and will take another look at them towards
Original...High pressure over the area will move east today.
Warm advection will increase across the area today on the back
side of the high. Moisture will also increase. Still expect a
dry day but after a sunny morning, clouds should thicken at
least in the west through the afternoon. Highs will be in the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight models bring a warm front northeast across the area. By
12Z Friday the front should bisect Lake Erie into extreme
northeast Ohio. Moisture will continue to increase across the
area through the night overrunning the warm front. Models
differ on QPF with the GFS possibly a bit overdone printing out
a quarter inch swath across the northern counties after
midnight. The NAM only brings precip into the northeast by
Friday 12z. Will side closer to the ECMWF/SREF mix and have
chance pops across much of the area beginning in the west
around/after 03z and moving east across the area through the
night. Best chances will be northeast so will have likely pops
there. Models show the best moisture lifting north with the
front early Friday with drier air moving into the area late
morning and afternoon. With the area in the warm sector believe
the afternoon will be at least partly sunny after a cloudy
morning so will have a trend in the zones much of the area.
Friday night deepening low pressure will move in the the central
plains. South to southwest flow across the area ahead of the
system will lift the warm front further north in the the
central lakes. While moisture will increase across the area
through the night believe lack of forcing will limit precip
potential. Will have only slight chance pops dropping back into
the area from the north after midnight. Saturday however a
moisture conveyor sets up into the area out of the GLFMX.
Current forecast looks fine with high chance to likely pops in
place. Saturday night and Sunday continue to look wet as the low
moves from Missouri to Michigan so will have categorical pops
for the two periods. Temps quite mild Friday through Sunday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active weather pattern shaping up for the upcoming extended period
as overall mean flow becomes west to east across the lower 48
states. A series of upper level low pressure systems and shortwave
troughs will push quickly east in the early periods followed by
broad upper level ridging and small perturbations in the latter
periods of the extended.
Surface low pressure will move northeast toward the area from near
the delta region of Mississippi River and the Gulf Coast to Ohio by
Tuesday and then on northeast into Wednesday. The storm system will
bring some milder air into the forecast area through mid week. The
system will make an attempt to tap into some moisture from the
Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico with time by Tuesday and bring a
chance for showers to the local area. As the low pulls out to the
northeast Wednesday, dry slot will punch northeast into the forecast
area and bring an end to the precipitation. Surface high pressure
ridge extending south through the western Great Lakes will build
into the forecast area Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures should remain on the mild side early the period but
will drop back a bit as cold air advection takes place in the wake
of the low pressure system and in advance of the ridge building
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure at the surface will move east of the area today
allowing a warm front to move northeast across the area later
tonight. This feature will begin to spread some high clouds and
then middle level clouds into the region. Ceilings will drop to
around MVFR with a chance for some showers later tonight. Winds
should be light less than 10 knots through the day becoming
southerly and then increasing to 10 to 20 knots overnight except
15 to 25 knots at Erie.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday lingering into Sunday.
Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Thursday night and
then begin to increase in intensity from the south to southwest
through Friday. Flow suggests winds will keep highest waves away
from the nearshore waters to avoid small craft advisories at this
time. Winds diminish to light southerly over the weekend but begin
to increase slightly again Saturday night as a backdoor cold front
begins to push south across the lake. Cold front will stall over the
lake and lift north as a warm front Sunday but winds remain light