Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 231349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
949 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over Tennessee will drift south to the Gulf
Coast today. Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will move quickly
and be over western Lake Erie by this evening and off the east
coast by Monday morning. Cooler air will return on Monday as high
pressure builds across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes
early this week. Low pressure will move out of the central Plains
to the Great Lakes on Thursday.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The batch of warm advection clouds will pivot east of the area
this morning and the wind will back to the southwest to minimize
the lake interaction so we will break into sunshine. The exception
would be extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA where some mid
level clouds will continue to redevelop. Refined the hourly sky
cover based on the current trends. No other changes for the mid
Original "Today" discussion...
Warm air advection and continued flow off of the lake will
maintain a mid deck of clouds through the early morning hours.
Beyond that it will be variably cloudy for most across the
northern tier...but locations toward Findlay and Marion will
likely have a period of significant clearing. There could be a
stray sprinkle this morning across the snowbelt...but will have no
mention. Bigger story today will be the warm up. That warm air
advection ahead of a clipper for this evening will bring H8 temps
across western OH into double digits. All of the observation sites
have been rising during the second half of the night with the
cloud cover and an increasing southwest wind. Will continue to
forecast a breezy day with highs near 60 in PA and 60 to 68 in OH.
Clipper arrives toward dark. A few showers may be nearby toward 6
pm this evening across Lake Erie and into ne OH/nw PA.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clipper will pass by quick and effective reach of the
precipitation with this system will be confined to an area from
Lorain to Akron and points northeast. Deepest moisture will spread
across Ashtabula and northwest PA...for a several hour period.
Sub-zero Celsius H8 temps will infiltrate the region during the
course of the day on Monday. The far eastern snowbelt areas will
continue to have a bit of cyclonic flow and another minor
shortwave move through the upper flow. Will continue the mention
the chance of showers Monday and Monday night across the extreme
northeast due to lake effect showers. To the west high pressure
from south central Canada will extend southward to the Midwest and
Ohio Valley. After 30s for overnight lows Monday night...high
temperatures Tuesday will end up a couple of degrees on either
side of 50. Wednesday will not be too different from that as we do
not get winds to come around to the south until Wednesday night.
There are some timing difference for the next system...but will
keep the forecast as is...bringing showers into the area Wednesday
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will be moving through the Central Great Lakes on
Thursday with a period of showers expected. Models then differ on
the timing of energy moving through the upper level trough for
Friday into Saturday. Even with the timing differences either
solution still produces scattered showers at times, especially
across the northeastern half of the County Warning Area.
Highs through the long term will generally be near to slightly below
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure is ridging into the area this morning with winds
from a southwesterly direction. Cloud cover at 3500 to 5000 feet
that have been generated by some warm advection ahead of a clipper
storm system will decrease from west to east through mid morning.
Only some afternoon cumulus across the area as the atmosphere
mixes a bit deeper than the last few days. This deeper mixing
should allow for some gusty afternoon winds. At this point gusts
look like they will remain in the 18 to 25 knot range. Cloud cover
will increase around sunset but do not expect to see any mvfr
ceilings until the cold front is nearby. Any showers look like
they will be northeast of a line from KCLE to KCAK. Best chances
will be extreme NE OH into NW PA. Winds will shift to the west
just ahead of the front then NW as the front passes from north to
south after 02z.
OUTLOOK...NE OH/NW PA will have non-VFR ceilings Sunday night
into Monday...possibly lingering into Tuesday in scattered rain
showers. Non-VFR possible again on Thursday.
Will keep the small craft advisory going in its current
configuration as west to southwest winds continue to generate larger
waves for the eastern half of the lake. Winds will attempt to
decrease for a few hours as a clipper dives into the Central Great
Lakes this evening. The downtime for the small craft advisory will
likely be short lived as NW winds in its wake increase. Strong cold
advection will assist in keeping winds up into at least Monday
night. High pressure will briefly ridge across the lake on Tuesday
but another fast moving storm system will arrive Wednesday night
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for