Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290112 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 912 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will move east of the region this evening as high pressure builds in from the upper Great Lakes. The high pressure will remain over the region through Thursday. A weak cold front will cross the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... a good part of the diurnal cu has dissipated or flattened leaving patches of mainly stratocu around the cwa. Radar indicated there may be a few isolated sprinkles occurring. Cooling temps next few hours will continue to lessen threat for possible shra. However...in the eastern parts of our nw pa counties the threat could linger longer into the night due to slightly better dynamics and help from lake erie. Overall cloudiness will continue to decrease the rest of the night as drier air is drawn se into the area. Lower dewpoints and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling...especially away from warmer Lake Erie. Most of the area should see lows of 52 to 55 except along the lakeshore where upper 50s will be more common. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable temperatures are expected during this period as high pressure remains over the region through thursday evening with seasonable humidity levels. a weak cold front on friday may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms but return moisture from the south is limited so qpf will be low. high pressure will build southeast across the region friday night and bring cooler and less humid conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will dominate the extended period. Fair conditions will exist through the weekend. High temperatures in the 70s for the start of the weekend will moderate into the lower 80s for the start of next week. The 12z GFS shows a warm front that moves near the forecast area for the early part of next week. Depending on the northward push of this front a few showers and thunderstorms may move into the southern sections of the warning area for Monday or Tuesday. At this time confidence is low and I will leave out the mention of any precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Low pressure across the Eastern Great Lakes with satellite showing the circulation center over sern Ontario. Moisture associated with the trough remains in the area this evg with low vfr to patchy mvfr cigs most places. Across much of the area clouds look more diurnally supported while the solid deck across Srn Lwr MI and NWRN Ohio not so much. Will proceed expecting clouds across much of nern Ohio and NWRN PA to dissipate after sunset. In NWRN Ohio am expected clouds to continue to move into the area from the northwest while also dissipating on the south side. In all...expecting clear to scattered clouds after about 04z. VFR expected Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Winds will increase this evening as cold air advection continues over the lake. The latest models show north winds this evening 10 to 20 knots particularly on the eastern end of the lake. Waves are forecast to briefly build to 3 to 5 feet this evening before subsiding overnight. Small craft conditions are marginal but with the advisory already in place, I see no reason to discontinue it at this time. High pressure will build over the lake on Wednesday and remain through Thursday. This will bring a light and somewhat variable flow over the lakes. Winds will shift to the southwest Thursday night as a cold front approaches the lake on Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Ohz010>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Paz001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Lez145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaPlante NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Adams SHORT TERM...LaPlante LONG TERM...Garnet/Jamison AVIATION...TK MARINE...Garnet/Jamison/TK

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