Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261229 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 729 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST...THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY DEEPENING INTO A NOREASTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR CRAWFORD...WYANDOT AND MARION COUNTIES AT 7 AM. THE SNOW IS VERY LIGHT THERE NOW. WILL LET THE OTHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS PLANNED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION... THE DRIER AIR IS ERODING THE SNOW SHIELD AND THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME LIGHTER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE LINGERING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL GENERATE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR THE SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS STILL EXPANDING ACROSS CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DESPITE THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST A LITTLE MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER FROM SANDUSKY TO CLEVELAND THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW ALTHOUGH THE DRIFTING WILL TYPICALLY DIMINISH WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND THERE IS NO NEW POWDER. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL LET THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 AM STAND FOR WYANDOT... MARION AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 9 AM AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR STARK AND MAHONING COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN MAHONING COUNTY PAST NOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT BY THAT TIME. THE SUN WILL COME OUT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY NEAR OR BELOW THE NAM/MET MOS GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINING CLOUDS DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS. USED A COMBINATION OF THE RAW MODEL SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS AND INTUITION TO TRY GUESS THE BEST TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND THE FRESH SNOW COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS ON THE BUBBLE FOR SNOW OR RAIN BUT COLDER AIR MOVING IN THU NIGHT SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD NOT BE VERY HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRI SO THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT. ON THE WEEKEND...YET ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR. THERE IS TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THE MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW AND WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SO WILL USE SOME AVERAGING IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OH BY NOON THEN START TO STALL WHICH MAY ALLOW SNOW TO LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AT YNG AND ERI. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS. WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THRU THU THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NW THU NIGHT TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LOW MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ029>031-037-038-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ032-033. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

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