Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251446 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 946 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over the east will continue off to the east this morning while a reinforcing cold front drops southeast across the area later today. High pressure will push northeast over the region for sunday and monday then shift off to the east for tuesday. A low will move northeast from the plains tuesday across the lower lakes wednesday pulling a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Not much showing up on radar with a few showers at the far east and west ends of the area. Area of clearing continues to move across the area but will fill in shortly leaving skies mainly cloudy. Expect lake effect activity to get going later this afternoon east of KCLE. Elsewhere...precip will be negligible and have lowered chances most areas. Have adjusted temps slightly as well. Previous...The cold front producing the threat for tsra pushing east of the cwa at this time so threat for tsra appears to be done. Band of shra with the front will still take another 3 to 4 hours to shift east of the area. Wrap moisture aided by an upper trough crossing the cwa will keep a lingering threat for shra today that will shift into just the snowbelt by nightfall. Temps aloft and at the surface should get cold enough to start to support frozen precip from late morning on in a west to east pattern of change. Due to the warm ground temps and ending of precip most places, little or no accumulation is expected. Temps will fall all day, into the low to mid 30s by evening. Winds will gust 30 to 40 mph at times.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Marginal lake effect conditions will be in place tonight but will become less favorable by the end of the night as high pressure builds ne into the snowbelt. The shsn should be done by sun afternoon leaving one to locally 3 or 4 inches of accumulation for the event in the snowbelt, especially inland nw pa. Lows sat night should fall into the low to mid 20s then only rise into the low 30s east to around 40 west for sunday. A flatter more zonal flow later sun thu mon night will allow a series of weak upper disturbances to quickly move east across the area trying to induce some light precip. However, lower levels appear too dry until late sun night or monday for anything more than flurries. Temps should warm enough so that by the time any worthwhile precip gets going on mon, it should come mostly in the form of rain. The main upper trough digging over the west sends another weak s/w ene into the area for tue which could enhance overrunning along the warm front over the area mon night and result in a little more enhanced precip. Precip type appears in question as temps aloft will be continuing to slowly warm. Right now the models indicate the the ssw half of the cwa should see just rain with only the far ne seeing a good chance to see more snow than rain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered to numerous showers expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning as stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Temperatures expected to surpass the 50 degree mark in all areas again as the front lifts to the north, although may take until late in the day to clear the lakeshore areas. A low level jet is expected to slide overhead on Tuesday night as low pressure slides northeast from the Plains to the central Great Lakes. This jet should provide enough lift for scattered showers to develop again overnight. Upper level trough is forecast to deepen over the Plains Tuesday night before curling northeast towards the Great lakes on Wednesday. Moisture will surge north into the area ahead of this system and expect showers in the southeast initially to expand with the passage of the cold front. Given ample cloud cover and periods of showers kept highs on Wednesday in the mid 50s, except closer to 50 in TOL. Much colder air wraps in behind the system with lingering precipitation transitioning to snow showers on Wednesday night. Lake effect snow showers will linger downwind of Lake Erie on Thursday and Thursday night then decrease on Friday as moisture dwindles and a ridge builds in. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Band of rain exiting Ohio to the east with rain continuing at ERI through 13-14Z. A break in the low clouds follows for a few hours before MVFR ceilings fill back in from west to east. An area of showers will wrap back in from the west transitioning from rain to snow as temperatures continue to fall. MVFR ceilings expected to linger through tonight. Westerly winds will increase with gusts of 25-30 knots through 00Z. Snow showers will linger into tonight with flow off Lake Erie at ERI. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across mainly the snowbelt Sunday morning. Areas on non-vfr Monday and Tuesday, returning Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Cold front will shift east of Lake Erie this morning with winds increasing as cooler air spreads over the lake. The Small Craft Advisory is already in effect on the western basin and will begin at 10 AM from Cleveland eastward. Winds expected to increase to 30 knots this afternoon and will approach Gale Force on the far east end of the lake for a couple hours this evening. Winds will decrease from west to east into Sunday morning with the Small Craft Advisory ending on the east half of the lake as winds back to the southwest by late morning. A ridge will build over the lake on Monday then shift east on Tuesday. A series of low pressure systems will slowly move east across the lakes from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Winds will increase considerably on Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front as the low moves off to the east. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams/Kubina SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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