-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
724
FXUS61 KCLE 151832
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
232 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will depart to the east tonight with a warm front
lifting into the region late tonight into early Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly approach from the west late Wednesday
before crossing the region Thursday. The front will slow over
the Ohio Valley Friday, allowing high pressure to build into
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure over the area this afternoon will drift
east tonight, allowing a warm front and shortwave trough to lift
northeast into the region late tonight into early Wednesday.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms may lift northeast into the area
as early as 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday morning with PoPs increasing
further near the I-75 corridor from 8 AM onwards. The most
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during peak
diurnal instability Wednesday afternoon/evening; all locations
have at least likely PoPs (around 60 to 70 percent) with
categorical PoPs (80+ percent) generally inland from Lake Erie.

As mentioned in previous discussions, a very moist airmass will
be in place across the area with widespread PWAT values of 2-2.1
inches and dew points in the lower 70s anticipated. To provide
context, these PWAT values are near to slightly higher than
daily maximum values for ILN/PBZ sounding climatology. Storms
will likely be progressive, although the high moisture content
will likely result in very heavy rainfall rates and localized
high QPF values. HREF still highlights an area with about a 10%
chance of at least 3 inches of rain in 3 hours across portions
of north-central/northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and this will be the primary
area to monitor for flash flooding. Low-lying, poor drainage,
and urban areas (such as Cleveland, Akron, Canton, and
Youngstown) will be the most vulnerable areas for flooding. A
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains in place from roughly
Vermilion, OH to Mount Gilead, OH eastward with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere.

Bulk shear values will be modest at around 15 to 20 knots,
however MLCAPE values will most likely reach or exceed 1500 J/kg
during peak heating Wednesday. The higher instability in
addition to high moisture content could allow a few stronger
wind gusts to mix to the surface in any robust storms that
manage to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Day 2 Marginal Risk of
severe weather is in place for the entire CWA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The shortwave will generally exit to the east on Wednesday
night, however scattered showers and thunderstorms (and
possibly heavy rainfall) may persist across NE OH/NW PA into
Wednesday night. An upper trough and surface cold front will
likely cross the local area Thursday with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front during the day.
Have largely maintained the previous forecast, but there`s still
quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement/coverage and overall
chances of showers/storms. Changes to the forecast for Thursday
afternoon/evening are possible, especially if guidance
continues to trend drier and/or the main precip axis continues
to shift southeast of the CWA. Strong thunderstorms and flooding
are possible along/ahead of the frontal boundary.

The front will slow over the Ohio Valley late Thursday into
Friday and high pressure will build into the region Friday
morning through Friday night. Most locations should experience
dry weather during this time, although a few showers/storms may
graze locations south of U.S. Route 30 Friday afternoon.

High temps will be in the 80s Thursday with a notable cooldown
expected towards the end of the week. Friday`s highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the cooler upper
50s to lower 60s Friday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Unsettled weather will return over the weekend as a warm front
lifts into the region in response to low pressure moving east
across the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the warm
sector Saturday/Sunday with PoPs tapering off as the low`s cold
front crosses the local area at some point Sunday or early
Monday. A quieter weather pattern may unfold early next week,
but uncertainty in the timing and placement of the front
warrants continued PoPs through Tuesday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s this
weekend into early next week, although temps may begin to trend
a bit warmer by Tuesday. Expect lows in the 60s each night with
lower 70s possible Saturday night.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with deterioration
to non-VFR likely from west to east in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Coverage will begin as
isolated to scattered Wednesday morning, increasing to scattered
and perhaps widespread by Wednesday afternoon. Torrential rain
will accompany the showers and thunderstorms which will drop
vsbys down to IFR and perhaps as low as LIFR at times. Also cant
rule out some gusty winds in the strongest storms around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots.

Apart from a northwest to north lake breeze of 5 to 10 knots T
CLE/ERI, winds are generally light and variable early this
afternoon, 5 knots or less. Light and variable winds will
persist overnight before favoring a south to southwest
direction late Wednesday morning and afternoon, 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible
in lingering showers and thunderstorms across the south and
southeast portion of the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
VFR expected Friday before Non-VFR chances return Saturday and
Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern for the marine period will be on Thursday as a cold
front crosses Lake Erie, ushering in west to northwest winds of
15 to 20 knots. Confidence is increasing for waves of 3 to
perhaps 4 feet across the central and eastern basins. Just short
of Small Craft Advisory at this time, but will continue to
monitor trends. Otherwise, flow across Lake Erie is expected to
be 10 knots or less. Thunderstorms will impact Lake Erie
Wednesday afternoon and evening which could produce gusty
winds. Additional chances for thunderstorms impacting Lake Erie
will return for the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn