Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250715 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will descend across the Great Lakes region today though Tuesday. At the surface a cold front will pass through the area today. A trough of low pressure will follow on Tuesday. High pressure will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A broad upper trough will be across the Great Lakes region today. Models show an embedded short wave moving across the central lakes. At the surface, low pressure will also move across the central lakes with a cold front ssw which will move across the area today. Lapse rates are steep but BUFKIT shows very little available moisture below the LCL and just above the airmass drys out again. Better moisture will be across far northeast OH and nwrn PA from noon on so will have chance/slight chance pops there. Oddly, the lake may also help with the cool air aloft late this afternoon when winds are more favorable. Will go dry elsewhere. Highs, think late September. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tonight the NAM12 is the most aggressive with moisture into northeast Ohio and nwrn PA however it may be picking up on lake influences with 850mb temps down to +5 to +6C across the area while lake temps are closer to +20C. Will bring likely pops into nern OH and nwrn PA overnight with a chance of thunder there and over the lake as well. Lake induced capes reach over 1200 j/kg at KERI with a favorable wind direction for "lake effect". Monday another short waves rotates through the base of the trough and across the central lakes with similar 850mb temps. Will continue with likely pops Monday with improved dynamics as well as lake induced capes which 1600-1700 J/KG. Winds however will be trending more southwest so by mid/late afternoon the lake influence may be confined to near the shore. Tuesday the upper trough will move east and high pressure will build across the lower Ohio Valley. May not quite be out of the woods in the morning east so will need chance pops there however by afternoon will dry out the forecast. Tuesday night and Wednesday will try for dry with the high in place. COOL to start but moderating into mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precipitation chances will be increasing from Thursday into Thursday night as southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front advects moist air into the region. A surface low will track across the Central Great Lakes Thursday with a trailing cold front moving in from the west Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The front will stall in the vicinity of northern or central Ohio Friday. This will mean a continued chance for showers and storms Friday. The front will lift back north of the area as a warm front Friday night as another low cuts northeast across the Central Great Lakes. Its associated cold front will move through Friday night. Precipitation chances finally dwindle behind the front as we head into the weekend. Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday may have the potential to become severe. Additionally, depending on where exactly the front stalls Friday, there may be some flooding concerns. More on these possibilities in the coming days. Temperatures throughout the long term will be near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... A few showers may develop late this morning into early this afternoon across extreme northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. These could affect KERI, so have included a PROB30 for the time being. While an isolated shower is also possible as far west as KCAK, probability is too low to include in the TAFs. VFR cumulus will develop again on Sunday afternoon, likely becoming broken (050) in the afternoon/evening across eastern areas. Brief MVFR conditions possible in any shower. West winds will become gusty again on Sunday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. OUTLOOK...Chance of isolated MVFR in showers Monday into Tuesday morning with a trough aloft. && .MARINE... Westerly flow will continue today and it looks as if it should be a tad stronger than yesterday. Have therefore gone ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory for the entire lakeshore. Winds will be sustained near 20 knots with higher gusts. Waves will generally range from 3 to 5 feet, with smaller waves within the Western Basin. These westerly winds will continue Monday afternoon, when another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday, briefly flipping the flow to the northwest. It continues to look like winds will not be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front. A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly winds finally returning. South to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening for OHZ003-007>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Mottice AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Mottice

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