Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220300 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY... THEN STALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LATE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN FAR NE OH/NW PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MOVING OUT OF SE MI AND ARE NOW OUT OVER THE LAKE AS A SHORTWAVE HAS APPROACHED. IT HAD BEEN MORE QUESTIONABLE. LARGER COMPLEX IS NOW MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WILL LEAVE OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NEARLY DRY. THEREFORE LOWERED THEIR PRECIP CHANCES. NO ONE HAS A ZERO CHANCE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FAR NE OH/NW PA. STILL HOLDING OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH. TRUMBULL COUNTY IN PARTICULAR IS EXTREMELY SATURATED AND THESE STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE LAKE MAY CLIP THEM. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LOWS. STARTED WITH THE LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS GIVEN THE INCREASING DEW POINTS SO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY SHOULD START WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST...PROBABLY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND THE WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHEAST AND THE THETA-E AXIS PUSHES ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING THAT OCCURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OHIO...PROBABLY NOT QUITE REACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH WILL OBVIOUSLY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE THERE AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 AND HUMID ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER WHERE IT REMAINS RAIN FREE. THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS ENHANCED THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALSO LIFT OUT. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MORE SUBSIDENCE. BY FRIDAY EVENING THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MIDWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ANY LUCK...THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID. HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM AND HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN LONGER. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TOUGH. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON A LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR YOUNGSTOWN. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF FINDLAY AND MARION. PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SO EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NW OH AND SPREAD EAST. OTHER THEN THAT CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR 3000 FEET AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...BC

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