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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200459
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1259 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes tonight and Sunday. The high will move east of the
area on Monday. The next low will move northeast across the
Great Lakes Tuesday and take a cold front across the local area
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor changes were made to hourly temperatures to reflect
current trends.

Will continue to monitor for the potential of some fog across
inland low lying locations. If this occurs it will in Ohio it
will be across Knox, Holmes, Stark , Mahoning, and Trumbull
Counties. Crawford county in PA may also see some patchy fog.

Previous...Drier air moves in overnight as high pressure builds
into the area. High pressure will continue for Sunday and
sunday night with fair weather expected. Lows tonight and Sunday
night seasonal. Highs on Sunday a few degrees above average.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered along the mid Atlantic coast on
Monday, with southerly/return flow regime over the Great Lakes/Ohio
valley. Kept Monday dry for the moment. However the environment will
become a bit unstable with dewpoints on the rise with upper 60s
expected, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s. Some models indicate
a convectively induced disturbance/MCV propagating through the
region on Monday which would be enough to spark some convection, but
will wait until some more model consistency to add pops during this
time.

Precip chances will increase late Monday night through Tuesday as a
phasing upper trough digs southeast from central Canada into the
Great Lakes region, bringing a surface low northeast through the
lakes and a cold front east through the region. Went with cat pops
across most of the area Tuesday afternoon as models are in good
agreement with timing/coverage of precip. Much cooler air will build
in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with highs on
Wednesday only reaching the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Could see a few lingering showers in the extreme east Wednesday
night into Thursday as much colder air moves over the Lake. But
a large area of high pressure builds SE over the Great Lakes
Thursday and remains entrenched through the end of the forecast
period. As a result it will be cooler and drier across the
forecast area through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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High pressure will dominate the region today. Since winds will
be light we will need to monitor for some MVFR fog inland TAF
sites. Especially KCAK and KYNG. If it does occur it will be
brief around sunrise.

Otherwise it appears there will be an area of cumulus that
develops across across inland locations becoming scattered
from the central highlands southwestward into central Ohio.
A couple models indicate a few showers developing over the
Central Highlands late this afternoon around maximum heating.
This seems to be overdone in the models but something for later
shifts to monitor as we advect some low level moisture
northward on the west side of high pressure.

Winds will be light today but generally from the south and
southwest. The exception will be along the lakeshore with some
onshore flow developing. This will mainly impact KERI but may
drift inland toward KCLE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely in scattered showers/tstms on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build east across the lakes tonight through
Sunday night as a trough pushes south of Lake Erie this afternoon.
Winds will primarily remain west to briefly northwest tonight, 5-10
kts, before the surface high center slides south near the Ohio
valley Sunday as winds become more southwesterly, generally 5-15
kts. Southwest flow will slowly increase Sunday night through
Tuesday as high pressure slides east of the region and low pressure
develops over the Plains and deepens into the Great Lakes. Winds
will become 15-20 kts out of the southwest Tuesday before a cold
front pushes east across the lakes, with winds veer northwesterly.
Small craft advisories may be needed northeast of Cleveland Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, before north winds subside to 10 kts
or less Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...Greenawalt