Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 041259 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 859 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL. IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70`S BOTH DAYS. BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT. IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO. KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING. OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...MAYERS

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