Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201100 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 700 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST. REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST. THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK EASTWARD. && .MARINE... THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

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