Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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213 FXUS61 KCLE 231700 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1200 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the lower Ohio valley will remain in control across the area through Friday. Low pressure will pass just north of the Great Lakes Friday night, bringing a cold front through the local area. An upper trough will remain over the southern Great Lakes Saturday before high pressure builds east across the region Saturday night through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... No significant changes for the afternoon update. Original discussion... Quiet near term period expected with high pressure remaining anchored over the forecast area. Stratus across northeast Ohio and northwest PA continues to quickly erode this morning as the ridging builds, with increasing mid level clouds streaming in from the west in advance of a weak disturbance currently over northeast Illinois. This will keep skies mostly cloudy through the morning hours, with clearing expected from west to east throughout the afternoon. Temps will top out around or just above 40 degrees across the area. Skies are expected to be mostly clear overnight through much of Friday, with mid/high clouds building in Friday afternoon in advance of a cold front. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 20s inland and low 30s near the lake, with highs on Friday topping our near 50. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will move across the area Friday night. Not all that much moisture to lift along it until it interacts with Lake Erie so the greatest chances will be across the eastern half of the County Warning Area. Some lake effect rain showers will occur through the day on Saturday. We will have to wait for the upper level trough to pass before the coldest air can spill across the lake and change the rain to snow Saturday night. Accumulating snow may not occur until late Saturday evening when 850mb temperatures dip below -5C. Instablilty over the lake will not get all that impressive since 850 mb temperatures do not dip below -10C. This combined with dry air building in quickly Sunday morning should limit accumulations. For now have limited snow amounts to an inch or two across the higher terrain of NW PA. Saturday will see early highs in the upper 40s then cooling slowly through the afternoon. Cooler on Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to around 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Any remaining lake effect show shower should quickly com to an end Sunday morning as high pressure ridges into the area from the lower Ohio River Valley. This area of high pressure will move eastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast Monday evening. This will allow a return of warmer southwesterly winds ahead of the next storm system. The main area of low pressure will be well north of the region but it will push a cold front toward Ohio and NW PA Tuesday evening. Plenty of uncertainty with this front when it comes to precipitation chances. The amount of moisture associated with the front looks very limited. So if it is going to rain it will have to pick the moisture off of Lake Erie. Temperatures through the long term period will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Highs on Wednesday may reach the middle 50s for many locations. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period. Mid level deck 6k-10k bkn-ovc associated with an upper level trough, will move east of the forecast area overnight. OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come Saturday -shra as another cold front moves through. Potential for lake effect snow snowbelt east of CLE Saturday night into Sunday. && .MARINE... High pressure will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast today as a weakening cold front moves toward Lake Erie from central Ontario. This boundary will only help to tighten the pressure gradient over the lake. So expect to see southwesterly winds gradually increase through the afternoon. We will need to monitor wave heights closely from Geneva-on-the-lake to Ripley since the longer fetch could build waves close to 4 feet late in the day. A stronger storm system will move across central Ontario to central Quebec Friday into Saturday. This will drag a cold front across the lake by sunrise on Saturday. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front should increase to above 20 knots with building waves. This should be enough to get a small craft advisory going by Friday evening then continuing in the wake of the front into Sunday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Mullen

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