Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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709 FXUS61 KCLE 261055 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 655 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes have been made to hourly temperatures to reflect current trends. Previous discussion... A strong cold front will move across the region through the day. Showers have already moved across NW Ohio. There will be a brief lull for this region this morning but as the front approaches the showers are expected to expand in coverage. Have gone with categorical POPS spreading from west to east through the day. There is plenty of jet energy near the area but low level instability will not be all that high. So the chances of thunder will be limited. Will only mention a scattered thunderstorm chance in the forecast with it mainly occurring along the frontal boundary. Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday. Highs will be warmest across the east with lower to maybe middle 70s possible. Elsewhere highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect showers developing around Erie. As the surface and upper level sag southward across the western Great Lakes winds will remain southwest to west which will end up directing most of the lake effect showers into western NY State. This should allow most locations to have a dry day on Tuesday. However this all changes by Wednesday as the cooler pool of air associated with the upper low arrives. This should help to produce scattered showers for Wednesday through Thursday night. Lake Erie will likely begin to enhance the showers on Thursday as a north to northeast wind develops. Plenty of instability over the lake so we may need to monitor for some locally heavy rainfall. More on this through the week as we await better agreement between the models with the placement of the area of upper level low pressure. It will be cooler than average through the short term period with highs on the 60s. Any breaks in the cloud cover overnight will allow for some chilly temperatures with lows potentially dipping into the middle and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Trend of the extended the same with the large upper low drifting across the Upper Ohio Valley/lower great lakes. However...models still differ on the exact track and timing of the low. GFS has low centered over NRN Va by Friday morning...with the low drifting NE into upstate NY by daybreak Sunday. The ECMWF on the other hand has the low centered over Cincinnati Friday morning...with the low tracking into Central Michigan by daybreak Sunday. For now will go with the superblend pops and go with scattered showers Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Cold front...just into Western Ohio with the showers nearing Tol. Could see a few TSRA in the West this morning...but for most part will be showers. Front will move east of the forecast area toward 18z with the showers exiting the area late this afternoon. behind the front winds will turn to the West and increase to 15g25kt. OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR at ERI with lake effect clouds or showers on Tuesday. Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times between Wednesday and Friday with upper low and showers lingering across the region. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory in effect for the entire lake. Cold front now into NW Indiana...and is expected to move east of Eri by early afternoon. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots by late morning...then West at 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. The 850MB temps drop to 5c by Tuesday morning as the strong cold air behind the front moves over the lake. Expect the small craft to continue in the east until Wednesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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