Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 080253 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 953 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT. TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE... WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. IN GENERAL EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...TK

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