Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241915 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 315 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY 15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE. BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA. AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON SUNDAY. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...
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LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAYERS NEAR TERM...MAYERS SHORT TERM...MAYERS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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