Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231102 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 702 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move up the east coast early in the week. A cold front from the plain states will cross the midwest on Wednesday and may reach the local area Wednesday night or Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Quiet and chilly morning, adjusted the hourly temperatures, most were running a degree or so cooler than the earlier forecast. No other changes for the early morning update. Original "Today" discussion... High pressure will continue to push east across the Great Lakes today. The models show an increase in higher level moisture this afternoon and some cirrus will probably develop over the eastern counties but it may well remain thin. The NNE flow will start out light and pick up a bit with the day time mixing. The impact will be confined mostly near Lake Erie where temperatures will hold in the 50s. Warmer elsewhere with highs in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure noses into the area for Sunday. Models show dry air across the area Sunday that will last into Monday morning as the high and the dry air get squeezed between an approaching cold front from the north and moisture moving toward the area from the southeast from low pressure near the SC coast. Think we will get through Monday afternoon partly cloudy across the east half of the area but as moisture continue to increase Monday evening and overnight believe skies will turn mostly cloudy. Tuesday the NAM GFS and ECMWF show moisture/clouds across much of the area but most east half. Will begin the Tuesday forecast mostly cloudy east and decrease clouds through the day as this moisture hopefully thins. Will continue the trend into Tuesday night as moisture associated with the east coast low pulls east and moisture associated with an approaching cold front should not quite be here. Highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday reaching the lower 70s on Tuesday except for nwrn PA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will drift southeast across the northern lakes by tonight. With heights progged to rise across the western lakes and the flow aloft becoming more zonal and plenty of subsidence, it would appear that the front will slide off toward New England although it may get close to the northeast shore of Lake Erie tonight. We will be between systems Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will build at the surface and aloft across eastern Canada. A trough/cold front will begin to track across the plains states. The east northeast surface flow will begin to increase on Monday as the pressure differential increases so we will still be dealing with a lake breeze, especially west of Cleveland including Sandusky and Toledo where temperatures will hold in the 50s. Around 70 inland. The real fly in the ointment is low pressure that will move slowly up the east coast. A number of progs continue to show QPF sneaking into extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA. Typically we do not get synoptic type precip this far west but the limiting stream line and diffluence aloft suggest that precipitation is possible from late Monday night into Tuesday morning. We have a"slight chance" mentioned in the forecast and will continue to keep a "slight chance" for extreme NE OH/NW PA. The models continue to slow down the arrival of the next front. Not a surprise given the slow movement of the upper low along the east coast and the deepening trough out west. Will hold off on the chance for showers/storms until Wednesday night. Temperatures will continue to recover. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to at least 13C with the ECMWF progging 14-15C across northwest Ohio which would support highs around 80 by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with only some cirrus later today. Light and variable winds will become east to northeast. OUTLOOK...Possibly non-VFR over the east on Tuesday and entire area Wednesday. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds will become onshore this afternoon as high pressure remains over the lake. Choppy conditions expected on the lake Monday as winds turn to the NE and increase to 10 to 15 knots as a low pressure system tracks across the Tennessee. Winds become southeast at 10 to 20 knots Tuesday night but a small craft advisory is not expected. Models a little slower with the timing of the next front. Next front not due now until Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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