Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 290112
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
912 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
An upper trough will move east of the region this evening as high
pressure builds in from the upper Great Lakes. The high pressure will
remain over the region through Thursday. A weak cold front will
cross the region on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
a good part of the diurnal cu has dissipated or flattened leaving
patches of mainly stratocu around the cwa. Radar indicated there may
be a few isolated sprinkles occurring. Cooling temps next few hours
will continue to lessen threat for possible shra. However...in the
eastern parts of our nw pa counties the threat could linger longer
into the night due to slightly better dynamics and help from lake
Overall cloudiness will continue to decrease the rest of the night
as drier air is drawn se into the area.
Lower dewpoints and light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling...especially away from warmer Lake Erie. Most of the area
should see lows of 52 to 55 except along the lakeshore where upper
50s will be more common.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Seasonable temperatures are expected during this period as high
pressure remains over the region through thursday evening with
seasonable humidity levels. a weak cold front on friday may
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms but return moisture
from the south is limited so qpf will be low. high pressure will
build southeast across the region friday night and bring cooler
and less humid conditions.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the extended period. Fair conditions
will exist through the weekend. High temperatures in the 70s for
the start of the weekend will moderate into the lower 80s for the
start of next week. The 12z GFS shows a warm front that moves near
the forecast area for the early part of next week. Depending on
the northward push of this front a few showers and thunderstorms
may move into the southern sections of the warning area for Monday
or Tuesday. At this time confidence is low and I will leave out
the mention of any precipitation.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low pressure across the Eastern Great Lakes with satellite showing
the circulation center over sern Ontario. Moisture associated with
the trough remains in the area this evg with low vfr to patchy mvfr
cigs most places. Across much of the area clouds look more
diurnally supported while the solid deck across Srn Lwr MI and
NWRN Ohio not so much. Will proceed expecting clouds across much
of nern Ohio and NWRN PA to dissipate after sunset. In NWRN Ohio
am expected clouds to continue to move into the area from the
northwest while also dissipating on the south side. In
all...expecting clear to scattered clouds after about 04z. VFR
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.
Winds will increase this evening as cold air advection continues
over the lake. The latest models show north winds this evening 10
to 20 knots particularly on the eastern end of the lake. Waves are
forecast to briefly build to 3 to 5 feet this evening before
subsiding overnight. Small craft conditions are marginal but with
the advisory already in place, I see no reason to discontinue it
at this time.
High pressure will build over the lake on Wednesday and remain
through Thursday. This will bring a light and somewhat variable
flow over the lakes. Winds will shift to the southwest Thursday
night as a cold front approaches the lake on Friday.
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Paz001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Lez145>149.