Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010525 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...TK MARINE...OUDEMAN

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