Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221756 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 156 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FALL BEGINS THIS EVENING AT 1029 PM EDT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE FORECAST. WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. STILL MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB THIS MORNING AND THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND ALOFT. AT DAYBREAK THE 850 MB OVER NE OH AND NW PA WILL BE AROUND 0C WHICH MEANS A LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 19C...WHICH IS VERY UNSTABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND WITH THE MOISTURE LAYER SHALLOW THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND 13C SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...THEY WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN. KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE HIGH SIDE 38 TO 40. WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME GOING FOR A THREAT OF PATCHY FROST MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FROM CANTON WEST AND LOCATIONS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE. THIS FROST THREAT WILL BE MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS. IT WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MEAN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. IN A NUTSHELL MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF START FRIDAY WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLEARING IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS FOR THE EXTREME EAST TO CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. .OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE LAKE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. RIP CURRENT RISK ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS REMAINS LOW AS STRONG NW FLOW WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVERGENCE ZONES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER. CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ147>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...DJB

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