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934
FXUS61 KCLE 272307
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
707 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag southward across the region this evening as
low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. The
low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday allowing
high pressure to build across the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure over nrn Indiana this afternoon with a weak cold
front across far northwest OH. This low will drop SSE across OH
overnight as the front moves south. By morning the from will be
in southern OH with another developing surface wave moving
northeast toward the Lower Ohio Valley along the boundary. The
low will then move east to the Virginias by 00Z Saturday.
Forcing is weak with the system initially however models
continue to show an upper short wave moving through the western
lakes tonight and becoming a closed low Friday as it reaches
the area. Convective development has been quite limited today
with the focus remaining well south of the area in vicinity of a
warm front where instability is greater. Following the HRRR
will go with chance pops for a few showers/thunderstorms mainly
south/southwest mainly this evening. For Friday will bring high
chance and likely pops back into the south and southeast portion
of the area where moisture is best as better forcing descends
into the area with the upper low. Friday night the system and
associated moisture will pull out as drier air and high pressure
build in from the northwest. Temps Friday a few degrees below
normal with highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers should be SE of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday
as upper level trough slides SE. At the surface large Canadian
high will become the dominant weather feature through the
remainder of the weekend. Saturday will be cooler and drier with
highs only in the 70s. Little change for the remainder of the
forecast period with high pressure anchored over the Great
Lakes. Expect dry conditions with slightly below normal temps
and copious amounts of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In general surface high pressure will be in place to start. A cold
front will be dropping down from the upper Midwest for the second
half of the week, although there are differences in timing that wave
over the top of the western U.S. ridge. Will bring the mention of
showers/thunderstorms into the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures
will be seasonable each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The front across the area continues to push. All of the precip
falling right now is south of U.S. 30 and this should all be
south of the area by sunset. The nighttime hours will be quiet.
Still expecting some MVFR fog to develop in the south late
tonight where rain has fallen. Fairly widespread MVFR cigs
should develop tomorrow morning in the northeast flow off of the
lake. It will take till sometime in the afternoon for cigs to
lift to VFR. By that time winds will have picked up. Gusts in
excess of 20 knots are expected during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Friday afternoon could
persist into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front across SE Lower Michigan will move across Lake Erie
tonight.  Choppy conditions develop on the lake tonight as winds
turn to the NE and increase to 10 to 15 knots behind The front.  A
Small Craft Advisory will be needed tomorrow as NE winds increase to
15 to 25 knots.   Small Craft will likely continue into Sunday when
the winds begin to diminish as high builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB