Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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188 FXUS61 KCLE 231322 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 922 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley will move off the east coast tonight. This will allow a warm front to lift north of the area early Friday. An upper level low will drift across the Central Lakes this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Have backtracked on clouds and slowed their spread across the area. There should be a lot of sunshine today. Temps tricky for this afternoon and will take another look at them towards midday. Original...High pressure over the area will move east today. Warm advection will increase across the area today on the back side of the high. Moisture will also increase. Still expect a dry day but after a sunny morning, clouds should thicken at least in the west through the afternoon. Highs will be in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Tonight models bring a warm front northeast across the area. By 12Z Friday the front should bisect Lake Erie into extreme northeast Ohio. Moisture will continue to increase across the area through the night overrunning the warm front. Models differ on QPF with the GFS possibly a bit overdone printing out a quarter inch swath across the northern counties after midnight. The NAM only brings precip into the northeast by Friday 12z. Will side closer to the ECMWF/SREF mix and have chance pops across much of the area beginning in the west around/after 03z and moving east across the area through the night. Best chances will be northeast so will have likely pops there. Models show the best moisture lifting north with the front early Friday with drier air moving into the area late morning and afternoon. With the area in the warm sector believe the afternoon will be at least partly sunny after a cloudy morning so will have a trend in the zones much of the area. Friday night deepening low pressure will move in the the central plains. South to southwest flow across the area ahead of the system will lift the warm front further north in the the central lakes. While moisture will increase across the area through the night believe lack of forcing will limit precip potential. Will have only slight chance pops dropping back into the area from the north after midnight. Saturday however a moisture conveyor sets up into the area out of the GLFMX. Current forecast looks fine with high chance to likely pops in place. Saturday night and Sunday continue to look wet as the low moves from Missouri to Michigan so will have categorical pops for the two periods. Temps quite mild Friday through Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Active weather pattern shaping up for the upcoming extended period as overall mean flow becomes west to east across the lower 48 states. A series of upper level low pressure systems and shortwave troughs will push quickly east in the early periods followed by broad upper level ridging and small perturbations in the latter periods of the extended. Surface low pressure will move northeast toward the area from near the delta region of Mississippi River and the Gulf Coast to Ohio by Tuesday and then on northeast into Wednesday. The storm system will bring some milder air into the forecast area through mid week. The system will make an attempt to tap into some moisture from the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico with time by Tuesday and bring a chance for showers to the local area. As the low pulls out to the northeast Wednesday, dry slot will punch northeast into the forecast area and bring an end to the precipitation. Surface high pressure ridge extending south through the western Great Lakes will build into the forecast area Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures should remain on the mild side early the period but will drop back a bit as cold air advection takes place in the wake of the low pressure system and in advance of the ridge building east. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... High pressure at the surface will move east of the area today allowing a warm front to move northeast across the area later tonight. This feature will begin to spread some high clouds and then middle level clouds into the region. Ceilings will drop to around MVFR with a chance for some showers later tonight. Winds should be light less than 10 knots through the day becoming southerly and then increasing to 10 to 20 knots overnight except 15 to 25 knots at Erie. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday lingering into Sunday. && .MARINE... Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Thursday night and then begin to increase in intensity from the south to southwest through Friday. Flow suggests winds will keep highest waves away from the nearshore waters to avoid small craft advisories at this time. Winds diminish to light southerly over the weekend but begin to increase slightly again Saturday night as a backdoor cold front begins to push south across the lake. Cold front will stall over the lake and lift north as a warm front Sunday but winds remain light through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Lombardy

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