Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 161116 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 616 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front near Lake Erie today will lift north of the lake Sunday and Monday. A cold front will move east across the area Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The band of warm advection snow over the NE half of the CWA will start to weaken by late morning then take most of the rest of the day to dissipate. Some lake enhancement will occur to increase snow amounts for Erie Co PA and surrounding counties. Current guess is for about 3 to 6 more inches in Erie co with amounts tapering down across the rest of the snowbelt and little or no accumulation for areas bordering the snowbelt. Will keep headlines for snow warning and advisories going until late today. Weak high pressure over the area tonight into early Sunday should keep things quiet for a while. A weak upper trough will race ENE into the cwa Sunday. Temps at the surface and aloft should warm just enough for mostly rain to be the threat as light precip tries to spread NE across the cwa from noon thru the rest of the day. Highs today will be warmer due to the warm advection with highs generally from around 30 in the far NE to near 40 in the far SW. Lows tonight should be in the 20s then highs on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer for the ne half of the area, with mid to upper 30s being more common.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast begins on Sunday night with a weak low pressure system just off to the northwest with a front draped over the area. This front will move off to the northeast on Monday as a warm front and will allow for temperatures to be well above normal for a couple days. Several pieces of energy with this low pressure system and the influx of additional moisture from the south will allow for rain chances for much of the short term period... although the best chances will be Sunday night with the warm front. The other best chance for precipitation will be with the cold front that will move across the area during the latter half of Tuesday. Rain will change over to snow as temperatures drop back down below freezing. The winds will shift around to the west and allow for lake- effect conditions in the snow belt region, however, at this point, there may be some residual warm air aloft with 850mb temps around 0C that may prevent the lake-effect machine from getting too out of hand on Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term begins on Wednesday with a cold front to east and westerly winds allowing for a lake-effect setup over the snow belt region. High pressure building to the south on Wednesday will allow for winds to shift around to the southwest and then to the south by Wednesday night to shut off the lake-effect machine and have a dry forecast for much of Thursday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system develops off to the west waiting to move in for Friday and Saturday. The southerly winds on Thursday will usher in some warmer air and allow for temperatures to go back into the 40s. The initial precipitation type with the low pressure system on Friday will be rain with the warmer air will remaining in place. Cold air wrapping behind the system will allow for rain to chance over to snow on Friday night into Saturday, as temperatures go back below freezing. Westerly flow over Lake Erie will allow for lake-effect to set up over the snow belt for Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Expecting mostly VFR to prevail thru 06z Sat night except in the core snowbelt where a band of warm advection snow will produce a mix of mostly MVFR/IFR conditions in periods of snow. Skies will become partly cloudy from southwest to northeast thru 20z. Cigs and VSBY`s at ERI will improve late today into this evening as the snow tapers off but may not improve above MVFR tonight. Probably will see some fog develop later tonight for all but the snowbelt where more clouds will try and hang around and keep the fog from trying to form. W to SW surface winds will gradually diminish through early afternoon and will actually become light and variable by this evening. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR also possible in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Westerly flow that has set up over Lake Erie will continue for the first half of today with winds 10 to 20 knots eventually decreasing to 10 knots or less later this afternoon. High pressure off to the north will allow winds to shift around to the north and then northeast for overnight period and light and variable winds will be expected for Sunday. Low pressure moving northwest of the area on Monday will allow for the flow to switch around to the southwest and increase to 10 to 20 knots. As the low moves off to the northeast and a cold front approaches the area winds will increase to 25 knots and winds will shift slightly to the west, allowing for likely small craft advisory conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure building to the south on Thursday will ease the winds over the lake and shift winds around to the south for the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ014-089. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ003. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Sefcovic

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