Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 200459 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1259 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday. The high will move east of the area on Monday. The next low will move northeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday and take a cold front across the local area Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Only minor changes were made to hourly temperatures to reflect current trends. Will continue to monitor for the potential of some fog across inland low lying locations. If this occurs it will in Ohio it will be across Knox, Holmes, Stark , Mahoning, and Trumbull Counties. Crawford county in PA may also see some patchy fog. Previous...Drier air moves in overnight as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue for Sunday and sunday night with fair weather expected. Lows tonight and Sunday night seasonal. Highs on Sunday a few degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be centered along the mid Atlantic coast on Monday, with southerly/return flow regime over the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. Kept Monday dry for the moment. However the environment will become a bit unstable with dewpoints on the rise with upper 60s expected, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s. Some models indicate a convectively induced disturbance/MCV propagating through the region on Monday which would be enough to spark some convection, but will wait until some more model consistency to add pops during this time. Precip chances will increase late Monday night through Tuesday as a phasing upper trough digs southeast from central Canada into the Great Lakes region, bringing a surface low northeast through the lakes and a cold front east through the region. Went with cat pops across most of the area Tuesday afternoon as models are in good agreement with timing/coverage of precip. Much cooler air will build in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with highs on Wednesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Could see a few lingering showers in the extreme east Wednesday night into Thursday as much colder air moves over the Lake. But a large area of high pressure builds SE over the Great Lakes Thursday and remains entrenched through the end of the forecast period. As a result it will be cooler and drier across the forecast area through next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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High pressure will dominate the region today. Since winds will be light we will need to monitor for some MVFR fog inland TAF sites. Especially KCAK and KYNG. If it does occur it will be brief around sunrise. Otherwise it appears there will be an area of cumulus that develops across across inland locations becoming scattered from the central highlands southwestward into central Ohio. A couple models indicate a few showers developing over the Central Highlands late this afternoon around maximum heating. This seems to be overdone in the models but something for later shifts to monitor as we advect some low level moisture northward on the west side of high pressure. Winds will be light today but generally from the south and southwest. The exception will be along the lakeshore with some onshore flow developing. This will mainly impact KERI but may drift inland toward KCLE. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely in scattered showers/tstms on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will build east across the lakes tonight through Sunday night as a trough pushes south of Lake Erie this afternoon. Winds will primarily remain west to briefly northwest tonight, 5-10 kts, before the surface high center slides south near the Ohio valley Sunday as winds become more southwesterly, generally 5-15 kts. Southwest flow will slowly increase Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure slides east of the region and low pressure develops over the Plains and deepens into the Great Lakes. Winds will become 15-20 kts out of the southwest Tuesday before a cold front pushes east across the lakes, with winds veer northwesterly. Small craft advisories may be needed northeast of Cleveland Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, before north winds subside to 10 kts or less Wednesday through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION... MARINE...Greenawalt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.