Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 032350 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 750 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE AND KERI. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KEC

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