Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220019 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 719 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift north of the area early Monday morning. Low pressure will move across the central plains to the Great Lakes by Monday night pushing a cold front across the area on Monday night. The upper trough will cross the area on Tuesday and another trough will follow on Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west by Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued a dense fog advisory for extreme northwest Ohio where the fog will be dense and most persistent tonight. The fog will likely try to improve before daybreak as the upward motion and rain showers increase and the warm sector tries to creep north. No changes for the remainder of the forecast for the early evening update. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... Quite complicated forecast for tonight. Fog has worsened across the Toledo area over the last hour. They really are on the edge of the dense fog across the rest of northwest OH. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for now. Others had improved this afternoon. There will likely be additional fog develop this evening, but expect it to be patchy. Light rain will develop as moisture depth gets a little deeper and the warm front advances northward. Temperatures will not fall far tonight and snow melt will continue. A big portion of Monday will likely be cloudy but dry with rain exiting in the morning and the area of showers advancing from the west late in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 50s. Some guidance suggests hitting 60 but feel that may be pushing it with the early rain and cloud cover. Bulk of rain then arrives for Monday evening. Have made little change to the forecast and the QPF. Still looking at a third of an inch for all and upwards of three quarters of an inch for northwest OH and far eastern OH/northwest PA. This should keep flooding concerns low. Temperatures drop back through the 40s but keep precip type all rain through Monday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A surface cold front will be east of the area at the start of the period with cold air advection ongoing. A reinforcing cold front will arrive later in the day with 850 mb temps and critical thicknesses getting low enough for a change back to frozen precip as early as Tuesday evening. Will continue with likely wording for Tuesday and then will begin to slowly dry things out from west to east Tuesday night as surface low pressure finally pulls off well to the northeast. Lake effect snow will occur downwind of the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This will be far from an ideal set up with the northwest flow and 850 mb temps perhaps getting as cold as neg 12. Already have scattered or high chance pops in the forecast and that seems reasonable for now. Western areas could even see some light snow showers from Lake Michigan make it to the area. Will need to keep an eye on that the next couple of days. Ridging will finally reach the area early Thursday and will dry things out at that time. The airmass looks nowhere near as cold as it did a few days ago and we should be able to get close to normal highs for both Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The period will start out cold and dry with high pressure over the area. The high will shift off to the east Fri to allow warmer and more moist air to start spreading back into the region. A cold front is expected to push across the area sometime Sat night thru early Sun night bringing colder temps back to the area. The first chance of rain looks to be later Fri night in the west then high likelihood with the frontal passage Sat thru Sun for most of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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KTOL will likely stay in the dense LIFR fog until on toward daybreak Monday. A tricky forecast elsewhere as a lot of the TAF sites are tickling the IFR thresholds. Expect the ceilings and visibilities to come down for a while tonight as the drizzle and showers increase, then start to improve to MVFR and eventually VFR on Monday as the warm front lifts north. South winds will be light tonight but increase and become gusty at times on Monday. Additional rain will move into the area from the west later Monday and Monday evening as the cold front approaches. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty winds by Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Light southerly winds will continue tonight and then begin to gradually increase tomorrow. The flow will become southwest and increase even more Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure moves over the central lakes and a cold front crosses Lake Erie. Could see sustained southwest winds Tuesday top out in the middle 20s. A second reinforcing front will arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening with the flow becoming west to northwest. Speeds will diminish some on Wednesday but northwest flow will continue through the end of day. A ridge will eventually cross the lake on Thursday with southerly winds returning for the end of the week. Haven`t gotten a look at the lake today but a lot of ice remains. It will be interesting to see how the floes move around the next few days with the changing winds. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ003-006-007. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Oudeman NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Kubina

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