Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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164 FXUS61 KCLE 251726 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 126 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the area from the east Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dewpoints remain fairly low and it`s going to take some time for any precip to form. Will be watching an impulse aloft as moves over the western end of the area this afternoon. Have gone ahead and lowered precip chances to come into better agreement with neighboring offices. Temperatures look fine. Original...Skies clear across the area early this morning but am concerned about convective development today as a short wave over Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around 1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around 50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in all...quite summer-like. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period. However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact highs each day by a few degrees. Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... An upper level disturbance will move east across the area late tonight and there is the threat for thunderstorms with this feature. Expecting thunderstorms to arrive after midnight in the west and toward sunrise in the east as the upper level feature moves from west to east. Some lingering clouds will follow the thunderstorms in the morning and then gradually improve to some high cirrus clouds by mid day. Winds should be around 7 to 10 knots from the southwest through the period most areas but light and variable in the west overnight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Monday morning. && .MARINE... A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie. High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of Cleveland. Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm threat each afternoon. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Mullen

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