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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
709
FXUS61 KCLE 261055
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
655 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward
today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The
area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way
across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes have been made to hourly temperatures to
reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...
A strong cold front will move across the region through the day.
Showers have already moved across NW Ohio. There will be a brief
lull for this region this morning but as the front approaches the
showers are expected to expand in coverage. Have gone with
categorical POPS spreading from west to east through the day.
There is plenty of jet energy near the area but low level
instability will not be all that high. So the chances of thunder
will be limited. Will only mention a scattered thunderstorm chance
in the forecast with it mainly occurring along the frontal
boundary.

Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday.
Highs will be warmest across the east with lower to maybe middle
70s possible. Elsewhere highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will
be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking
the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty
of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect
showers developing around Erie. As the surface and upper level sag
southward across the western Great Lakes winds will remain
southwest to west which will end up directing most of the lake
effect showers into western NY State. This should allow most
locations to have a dry day on Tuesday. However this all changes
by Wednesday as the cooler pool of air associated with the upper
low arrives. This should help to produce scattered showers for
Wednesday through Thursday night. Lake Erie will likely begin to
enhance the showers on Thursday as a north to northeast wind
develops. Plenty of instability over the lake so we may need to
monitor for some locally heavy rainfall. More on this through the
week as we await better agreement between the models with the
placement of the area of upper level low pressure.

It will be cooler than average through the short term period with
highs on the 60s. Any breaks in the cloud cover overnight will
allow for some chilly temperatures with lows potentially dipping
into the middle and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trend of the extended the same with the large upper low drifting
across the Upper Ohio Valley/lower great lakes. However...models
still differ on the exact track and timing of the low. GFS has
low centered over NRN Va by Friday morning...with the low drifting
NE into upstate NY by daybreak Sunday. The ECMWF on the other hand
has the low centered over Cincinnati Friday morning...with the low
tracking into Central Michigan by daybreak Sunday. For now will go
with the superblend pops and go with scattered showers Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front...just into Western Ohio with the showers nearing Tol.
Could see a few TSRA in the West this morning...but for most part
will be showers. Front will move east of the forecast area toward
18z with the showers exiting the area late this afternoon.
behind the front winds will turn to the West and increase to
15g25kt.

OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR at ERI with lake effect clouds or
showers on Tuesday. Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times
between Wednesday and Friday with upper low and showers lingering
across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory in effect for the entire lake. Cold front
now into NW Indiana...and is expected to move east of Eri by early
afternoon. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots by late
morning...then West at 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. The 850MB
temps drop to 5c by Tuesday morning as the strong cold air behind
the front moves over the lake. Expect the small craft to continue
in the east until Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB