Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 310722 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 322 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO THE VIRGINIA COAST BY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OUT OF MAINE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AREAS DUMPING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF AN HOUR. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME HELPING TO DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT AT THIS TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A MINIMAL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR. EXPECTING HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS. DEW POINTS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TREND IS FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER IN LATE AUGUST AND A REPRIEVE FROM WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL LAST WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP FOR THE MOST PART A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN GOING. SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOME SMALL BITS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SHOTS OF MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MINIMAL AT BEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING ANY REAL AIR MASS CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL GO OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP STORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON. SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOT`S OF NOISE IN THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SO HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO MENTION 90 AT SOME POINT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ENTIRE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN DRY AS THE LAST FEW SHOWERS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 3/4 OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. FURTHER WEST IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY WEST AND NW OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IN THESE AREAS WITH PATCHES OF IFR AS WELL LATER TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS. BRIEF BKN CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH A FEW POP UP STORMS. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT KERI AND KCLE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE ERIE ALL WEEK. THE GRADIENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW OR W. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS SO ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT DEVELOPING. AGAIN WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NOT ANTICIPATING ON NEEDING ANY HEADLINES THIS WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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