Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220150 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. BELIEVE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO MOVING IN BELOW 800MB THROUGH THE NIGHT THINKING CURRENT TRENDS OF DECREASING POPS INTO THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL BE FINE. ORIGINAL...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. UPSTREAM A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH WAS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE IS MOST EXPANSIVE NOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LAKE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE FOR OUR AREA...SPECIFICALLY THE SNOWBELT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW 5C. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING EITHER. TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ANY THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO 70 PERCENT FOR NE OH/NW PA. LINGER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LINGERED THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S. LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS SUCH AS TOL/FDY/MNN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 60. PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BECOMES BLOCKED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING CLOUD TREND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH 40...IF NOT UPPER UPPER 30S IF SKIES CLEAR WELL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT THE CLOUD COVER DOES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE NIGHT THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY. SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIDELY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA AFFECTING JUST THE SNOWBELT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW OF THESE SHRA POSSIBLY HANGING AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO EARLY MON AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD TRY AND DOMINATE ALL BUT THE FAR WEST PART OF THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST MON SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY MON THRU MON EVE. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT TO END ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE LONGER FETCH EVEN WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES UP ENOUGH TO KEEP 3 TO 5 FOOTERS GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGER WAVES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RIP RISK. VARIABLES AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CALM LAKE WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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