Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300116 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 916 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain across northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania through Sunday morning. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast across the area Sunday night. The high will move southeast by mid week allowing for a return back to warmer temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers have tapered off considerably. However...with the showers across Western Ohio have bumped up pops overnight in the west to likely. original discussion... Majority of the thunderstorms are diurnally driven/enhanced and expect us to be at the peak of areal coverage through the late afternoon/early evening hours. Steering flow is weak and for the most part storms are affecting their own movement. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat...with an inch or two very likely for those lucky/unlucky enough to be targeted by a storm. Traditional severe storms not expected (high wind,large hail) with little support for that. There is a bit of jet energy overhead tonight and do not think storm chances will diminish to zero. Will continue the scattered shower/thunderstorm mention through the night. Somewhat milder tonight and muggy...mid/upper 60s for lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... This whole system is slow to shift out of here and in fact have drawn out the precip chances into Monday across the eastern half of the area. Local trough across the Great Lakes trapped south of a southern Canadian ridge. There is nothing upstream to kick it out. We should have decent coverage of storms on Saturday too especially north and east...again diurnally enhanced. Sunday/Monday the upper trough slowly lifts out and the surface stationary front washes out in place. High pressure attempts to build in from the western lakes to northwest Ohio. But with a bit of cyclonic flow lingering across eastern Ohio/nw PA had to pull 20 percent precip chances into Monday. Temperatures through the entire period will be seasonable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Extended forecast will be dominated by another thermal ridge building in from the west. The models are in fairly good agreement with the strength of the ridge and the amount of heat that will nose into the region. The warm air advection will kick in Tuesday which will likely keep convective out of the area through Thursday as the air mass may get capped off under the building ridge. The ridge breaks down by next Friday with a short wave passing by to the north Friday into Friday Night. This will likely bring a front into the area with our best chance for convective activity. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... With low pressure in the vicinity and a very moist airmass in place showers and thunderstorms have been popping up and diminishing through the afternoon and into the early evening. Expecting this to continue through the evening before diminishing overnight. Still...would not rule out a shower or thunderstorm at any time. Tough to include mention in most TAFS given uncertainty of where they will be at any one time. For now included a tempo group for thunder at KFDY and a tempo group to ifr showers at KCAK during the evening. Otherwise mentioned as VCSH/VCTS where appropriate. Towards dawn brought restrictions due to fog/stratus most places. For Saturday brought back VCTS at 18z. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning. && .MARINE... A diffuse cold front lingers just south of the lake with a series of weak lows moving across it tonight into Saturday Night. Some models hint at a slight increase in the northeast winds tonight to around 15kt as the first low tightens the pressure gradient slightly. Don`t feel this would last long enough to have a notable impact on the wave heights as the gradient relaxes a few hours later. The same is possible again Saturday afternoon with the second low. Overall looking at an east/northeast wind around 10knots over the next 24hrs. High pressure will be slow to move in on Monday, but become entrenched by Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Jamison AVIATION...TK MARINE...Jamison

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