Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230538 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 138 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move off the east coast on Tuesday. The next storm system will slowly move from the Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will build in briefly Friday into Saturday but another cold front is due this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Fair weather is expected tonight as high cloudiness increases. GOES imagery shows cirrus spreading northeast from the system over the Tennessee Valley. Made slight changes to cloud cover and updated for current conditions. Previous discussion... Only minor adjustments were made to the forecast as fair weather prevails across the region as high pressure slowly shifts away from the region. Cirrus over mainly the east half of the area will thin for the next several hours and then increase as more clouds associated with a short wave rounding the base of a trough over the south central states shifts towards the middle Atlantic states. More clouds over the mid Mississippi Valley will spread into nw Ohio this evening as another short wave near nw Iowa digs southeast toward se Iowa by morning. Current temperature forecast looks reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short wave should track across the central Great Lakes on Tuesday. There has been a trend among most of the models to lower the shower threat across northwest Ohio for Tuesday. The air mass is relatively dry and stable. The only thing that makes me nervous is that we will be in the right entrance region of the jet on Tuesday but I suspect that we would see a little virga rather than rain with varying amounts of mid and high clouds. With 850 mb temps about 9- 10C and at least partial sunshine, we should be good for highs in the lower to mid 70s. The models are in surprisingly good agreement with the upper features of the developing storm system midweek. A strong short wave will carve the trough deeply into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. The jet on the east side of the trough is essentially progged to couple with the jet across the Great Lakes. A broad area of upward motion will likely develop from the lower Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes. A surface low will develop within this zone and drift north until it gets stacked within the upper trough and stalls. Not sure how fast the showers will spread east but there certainly seems a good chance for showers across northwest and north central Ohio. Will also mention thunder. Instability will probably not be too impressive but with the strong upward motion this time of year there will probably be at least some embedded thunder. High temperatures depend on how quickly the rain develops. Will have higher forecast highs across NE OH and NW PA where the showers will take longer to develop. By Thursday, the upper low/trough is progged to be overhead. Showers will likely be more random. There could be a dry slot but it is too early to try and get that specific with the forecast. High temperatures will likely be in the 60s. Lower 60s if there are enough showers, mid/upper 60s with enough dry time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Active pattern setting up with waves through every couple of days. Forecast problem is the timing since ECMWF and GFS continue to differ on timing of the systems. Both models has system exiting the area Friday with some lingering showers in the East. After that models diverge. The ECMWF has next low moving across Southern Ohio Saturday with the second wave moving across the forecast area on Sunday. The GFS has the same trend but the models is 6-8 hours faster. Leaned toward the slower ECMWF simply because models have been a little fast on the timing of the systems recently. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Quiet TAF period with VFR conditions expected as high pressure pushes east of the region. Scattered to broken cirrus will overspread terminals through the day, with some mid level ceilings pushing in after 00Z. Light gradient will allow for lake breeze to push into KCLE and KERI this afternoon with winds flipping out of the north, otherwise winds will remain light and predominantly south-southeasterly through the period. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Wednesday and Thursday in showers and TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... Winds are slowly diminishing as the surface ridge moves into the Upper Ohio Valley. Have cancelled the small craft advisory with the diminishing trend continuing. Winds will turn east-northeast Tuesday as the next low approaches from the mid-Mississippi Valley and high pressure shifts east. Expecting winds to remain below 15 knots Tuesday, but will increase a bit more for Wednesday as the low deepens. The western basin will likely be choppy at times. The low will reach western Lake Erie Wednesday night and redevelop off the east coast Thursday. High pressure returns over the lake for Friday, shifting east for Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...DJB/Oudeman

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