Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 301131 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 731 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND TO KEEP THE THREAT GOING FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHRA WELL INTO THE DAY. THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. NO WARM ADVECTION OCCURS TODAY SO TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND CUTOFF AS IT CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE CWA FRI BEFORE THE ENERGY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI. THE SITUATION FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE TRICKY AS THE RACE WILL BE ON AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BEFORE COLD ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS ALOFT ONLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE WEST LATER FRI NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING DOWN SO PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. EVEN ON SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPS HANGING AROUND MINUS 3 AND SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP CAN BE SNOW AND WHETHER IT CAN ACCUMULATE MUCH. THUS SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO FRI NIGHT WITH QUESTIONABLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR MOSTLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. BOUNDARY TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE REMAINING PRECIP IN THE EAST SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AS THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE GETS PULLED ESE OF THE AREA. ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IN THE MORNING IN NW PA...OTHERWISE SUN SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE 40S. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD DEVELOP SUN NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK WITH THE SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE LAKE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET SHOVED EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED ON ITS WEST SIDE. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED. WE WILL STILL NEED TO RAMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A DEFINITE WITH THEM BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.