Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 291928 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS TO DRY OUT AND FOR PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK. MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE MODELS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO HANG ON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL RIGHT OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY BRINGING PERSISTENT RAIN FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS IS MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND. THINKING THAT A SLOWER SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE ANSWER AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS INTO THE AREA WITH PERHAPS MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY UNTIL NIGHTFALL ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE. SYSTEM TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AT ABOUT THE ONE INCH MARK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE KEEPING MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE COOL SECTOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON MONDAY MORNING THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PRECIP FLOATING AROUND EARLY BUT THEN DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEW GUIDANCE IS THEN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY WITH A PLEASANT DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPS STRUGGLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. AFTER THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH AGREES BETTER WITH EARLIER MODELS RUNS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO...WILL BRING IN PRECIP CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THEM IN INTO THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AND MORE PRECIP ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ALL IN ALL HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MVFR ON THE EDGES. HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVER THE KTOL AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FINALLY START TO IMPROVE. WILL TRY TO BRING EVERYBODY BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY EVENING. THE WESTERN SITES MAY ACTUALLY GO VFR. SOME INDICATION FROM THE GUIDANCE THAT SKIES MAY SCATTERED FOR A TIME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OH AND NW THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z. NW FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE BY 00Z AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NORTHERLY FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS CONTINUES ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME NE AND THEN EAST TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN AND BECOME NORTH ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.