Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 031954 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HAVE KEPT THE LAKESHORE DRY. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NIL SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.