Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300803 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE. AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT THAT MAY CHANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES. && .MARINE... FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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