Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301953 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 353 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Current forecast for tonight is reasonable and only minor changes are planned as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Agree fully with the earlier thinking about limited moisture return with the expectation of only a few rumbles of thunder in the west. have used the hrrr model for timing showers with some slight changes. Increasing clouds and moisture will help keep temperatures warmer than recently.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry pleasant weekend. Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a quarter of an inch. High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60 degrees. The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the western and southern counties although there is obviously low confidence in the forecast. After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day. Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and upper 80s as the week goes on.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity" in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage. Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE...
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Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east but winds should remain relatively light.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaPlante NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...LaPlante LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Kosarik

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