Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 252315 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 615 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 50. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR SIMPLICITY. COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KOSARIK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.