Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 110830 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME 30 DBZ RETURNS ON RADAR BUT NOTHING LIKE THE 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW THAT FELL DURING LATE EVENING HOURS. STILL A COUPLE OF DECENT BANDS ON RADAR BUT BEGINNING TO SEE THEM WEAKEN AS WELL. DURING THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT TO NW PA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CHANGED THE ADVISORY ENDING TIME FOR CUYAHOGA TO 15Z. THE DAY CREW MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE REMAINING HEADLINES FOR NE OH LATER THIS MORNING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAYBREAK FROM ABOUT KCLE WEST. TILL THEN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM LORAIN COUNTY INTO MEDINA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST ACCUMS TODAY WILL ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE NUISANCE SNOW. SOME CLEARING IS ONGOING IN NW OHIO BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN AND EXPECTING MAINLY A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SOME FLURRIES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALSO REACH NW OHIO THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS ALL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR THOSE WANTING WARMER WEATHER YOU ARE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WILL END THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS AN 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. IF WINDS LESSEN TEMPS COULD GET REALLY COLD. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND AS A CLIPPER WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A GENERAL LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER ISN`T OVERLY MOIST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT A RENEWAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. A HURON BAND COULD GET SET UP ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE SNOW MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE ONGOING CURRENT EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN END THE SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS WILL ONLY BRING IN CHANCES POPS BY 12Z MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE FLOW TO BEGIN NEXT WORK WEEK. BASICALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS SIMILAR THE TRACK AND TIMING OFF SO DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF SNOW. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST...FINALLY REACHING NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. BY WEDNESDAY ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING CLE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS BAND WILL CLIP CAK/YNG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW DECREASING AFTER 08Z FOR ALL SITES BUT ERI. ERI WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKE HURON ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED BUT TRIED TO TIME IT INTO ERI WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 11-15Z. ELSEWHERE CLOUD HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OF NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT ERI THROUGH 22Z. OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MARINE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN PUSHING 30 KNOTS. WILL SEE A QUICK BREAK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BUT NEXT ARCTIC BLAST DUE IN ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -24C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY WINDS CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT THIS POINT THE LAKE IS PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012-089. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ013-014. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ011. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ002-003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KEC MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN

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