Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241741 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1241 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA GIVEN THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SMALL SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO BOW OUT AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE RISES WITH FROPA FOLLOWING THE FRONT. LOWERED THE POP FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW SHOWERS UNTIL WE GET UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT TONIGHT. RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP... FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL. EXPECTING WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM. LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003- 006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144- 162>164. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...LOMBARDY

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