Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261748 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 148 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Band of showers remains generally along and east of Interstate 71 while starting to dry out in the west. Most locations in the east have already reached the high for today with temperatures falling as the rain arrives. Satellite imagery shows the clearing line moving east across Indiana as the mid-level dry slot wraps in from the west. This will start to move into the Toledo to Findlay corridor by 3 pm with temperatures reaching their highs late in the day. Previous discussion... A strong cold front will move across the region through the day. Showers have already moved across NW Ohio. There will be a brief lull for this region this morning but as the front approaches the showers are expected to expand in coverage. Have gone with categorical POPS spreading from west to east through the day. There is plenty of jet energy near the area but low level instability will not be all that high. So the chances of thunder will be limited. Will only mention a scattered thunderstorm chance in the forecast with it mainly occurring along the frontal boundary. Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday. Highs will be warmest across the east with lower to maybe middle 70s possible. Elsewhere highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect showers developing around Erie. As the surface and upper level sag southward across the western Great Lakes winds will remain southwest to west which will end up directing most of the lake effect showers into western NY State. This should allow most locations to have a dry day on Tuesday. However this all changes by Wednesday as the cooler pool of air associated with the upper low arrives. This should help to produce scattered showers for Wednesday through Thursday night. Lake Erie will likely begin to enhance the showers on Thursday as a north to northeast wind develops. Plenty of instability over the lake so we may need to monitor for some locally heavy rainfall. More on this through the week as we await better agreement between the models with the placement of the area of upper level low pressure. It will be cooler than average through the short term period with highs on the 60s. Any breaks in the cloud cover overnight will allow for some chilly temperatures with lows potentially dipping into the middle and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Trend of the extended the same with the large upper low drifting across the Upper Ohio Valley/lower great lakes. However...models still differ on the exact track and timing of the low. GFS has low centered over NRN Va by Friday morning...with the low drifting NE into upstate NY by daybreak Sunday. The ECMWF on the other hand has the low centered over Cincinnati Friday morning...with the low tracking into Central Michigan by daybreak Sunday. For now will go with the superblend pops and go with scattered showers Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Conditions already improving from the west this afternoon with VFR conditions at TOL and soon to be at FDY. Showers making good progress east and will be east of the TAFs by late afternoon. Clearing will make it all of the way across the terminals for this evening. A few clouds to develop off of the lake may brush ERI at times overnight/Tuesday morning. Gusts in the clearing this afternoon to 25 knots. Southwest gusts develop on Tuesday...gusting to 30 knots. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times between Wednesday and Saturday with upper low and showers lingering across the region. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory in effect for the entire lake. Cold front now into NW Indiana...and is expected to move east of Eri by early afternoon. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots by late morning...then West at 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. The 850MB temps drop to 5c by Tuesday morning as the strong cold air behind the front moves over the lake. Expect the small craft to continue in the east until Wednesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...DJB

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