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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 092130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
430 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING AS A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE
COASTAL STORM WILL STRENGTHENING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER LAKE
ERIE WEAKENS. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SNOW WILL PERSIST IN NW PA MOST OF TONIGHT AND ALSO IN THE TOL
AREA WHERE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPLIFT WILL PERSIST. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF 8-10 INCHES IN THE TOL
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71 &
I-80. WARNING MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED BY MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES FROM MFD TO CANTON. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO
THE REGION WITH THE DRY SLOT SO HAVE USED THE NAM SURFACE TEMP
FORECAST AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE STORM DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE PRIMARY LOW FILLING OVER OUR AREA...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY
DEVELOP PRIMARILY FROM LAKE HURON AND PERHAPS FROM ERIE.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WEST TO 2-4
INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST SNOWBELT. SURFACE COLD POOL WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OVER
LAKE ERIE FLOWS SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY PERSIST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM LAKE HURON. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME CHANGES.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS MOVE A NICE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BUT
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. JET STREAM IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND... AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT. IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF
A GULF CONNECTION. WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(20-30%) MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME... A NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
START TO BUILD EAST BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF THERE CAN BE
SOME CLEARING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. WILL NOT FORECAST MIN TEMPS AS COLD AS IT COULD BE SINCE IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO BE CONFIDENT ON TIMING THE GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING MAINLY TO MVFR VISIBILITY BUT
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR
ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND THAT WILL
DECREASE THE WINDS FOR A TIME. AS THE LOW WEAKENS WEDNESDAY AND
THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TAKES OVER THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS SHOULD JUST BE UP TO 30 KNOTS...IT IS
POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR. THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKENS. A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ014-
     089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA