Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 222035 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 435 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Broad area of low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes through Sunday. A cold front will move south across the area late Sunday ahead of a trough deepening aloft. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada across the Great Lakes during the first half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Broad area of weak low pressure remains from the Central Great Lakes back into the Plains. A large area of convection that moved across the area this morning helped to stabilize the area for much of the day although some weak instability has developed late. An MCV is noted on satellite imagery with scattered showers starting to fill back in across southeast MI along with central and southern Ohio. The stronger storms in central Ohio will tend to move to the south towards the better instability this evening. The airmass will remain very moist for a few more hours before drier air starts to arrive from the west later this evening. PW values remain near 2 inches and will need to keep a close eye on a few areas that received a couple inches of rain already today, mainly in NE Ohio. Any additional thunderstorms activity generally expected to be brief in nature. After some degree of clearing this evening, the very moist low level airmass suggests stratus will fill in overnight so will trend cloud cover up after midnight. Lows will generally be near 70 degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to re-develop on Sunday with diurnal heating ahead of a trough dropping down from the north. Best coverage is expected in NE OH/NW PA where the better moisture and low level convergence will be located during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center does have the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A trough will be exiting the region off to the east on Monday. There could still be a few lingering showers around Monday morning, mainly across far northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. These should move off to the east by the mid- afternoon hours. High pressure will start to build in by Monday night and will be the dominate feature through Wednesday with dry conditions. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be a bit below normal as northerly winds continue across the area. Look for temperatures to rebound back to slightly above normal by Wednesday as winds veer back to a southwesterly direction.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes forcing a cold front southeast across the area. The front will become nearly stationary across the area while weak waves of low pressure move east along the boundary. Limited moisture associated with the cold front will slide southeast into the local area with the front Wednesday night into Thursday. A vigorous upper level positive vorticity maximum will slide southeast in an upper level trough. This feature will help to enhance further development of the low pressure system across the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. The bulk of the moisture should be southeast of the area and only limited threat for showers expected going into the end of the week and first part of the weekend. Warm air advection will take place ahead of the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. As the surface low pressure slides east of the area Friday night, some weak cold air advection will take place Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Widespread area of rainfall has shifted east with just scattered showers and a lower chance of thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. Ceilings range from VFR in the west to IFR in the east. The trend will be for gradual improvement this afternoon but some locations in the east may remain MVFR. Given moist ground conditions and clouds attempting to scatter out, a stratus deck will try to develop at many sites overnight with MVFR ceilings west/IFR ceilings east. Visibilities will also decline after 06Z with a weak surface trough and low level moisture convergence overhead. , OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in early morning fog/mist may continue during the first half of the week. && .MARINE...
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Winds will generally be light and variable through tonight on Lake Erie. Winds will turn to the northwest Sunday around 10 knots and increase to around 15 knots Monday out of the north. Winds will then slowly veer around from the north to the northeast by Tuesday, remaining around 10 knots or so. Winds will veer back to the southwest by Wednesday at less than 10 knots.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Mottice

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