Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221030 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 630 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored over the area through the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Almost nothing will change in the atmosphere over the area thru Sat so expect more of the same. Temps will stay well above normal with highs getting near 90 in some spots while mostly clear skies and light winds will allow lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some end of the night patchy fog will be possible. && .SHORT TERM/Saturday NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ Well above normal temperatures continue into next week with a broad ridge aloft. 500mb heights of 588dm extend north of the Great Lakes Region. MOS guidance struggling with temperatures in this warm pattern and went with more of continuity based temperature forecast that is above guidance values. Lake breezes also expected each afternoon that will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler than inland sites. Some increase in high clouds possible by Monday as the center of the ridge shifts towards New England. && .LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ Warm temperatures continue into Wednesday before the upper ridge finally breaks down. A piece of energy lifts out of the western trough and passes north of the Great Lakes region from Tuesday into Wednesday. The associated cold front will weaken as it approaches the area from the west late Wednesday with model spread increasing beyond that point. The ECMWF pushes the front through quickly with much colder air and a deeper trough aloft on Wednesday night. Meanwhile the GFS is slower with the front and does not bring the much cooler air in until a secondary push arrives Thursday night. Will carry a chance of thunderstorms with the front on Wednesday night for most areas with a blended approach for temperatures on Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... High pressure will provide mainly clear skies through the period with only patchy cirrus and sct afternoon cu. Some MVFR fog possible around the 09-13Z timeframe, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Winds will be light and variable, aside from another lake breeze affecting KCLE and KERI this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday and maybe Sunday mornings. && .MARINE... Very good marine conditions will continue into next week. High pressure starting off over the eastern Great Lakes today will expand over the weekend. Land breezes will develop at night with lake breezes and onshore flow each afternoon. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through Tuesday with waves of 2 feet or less. A cold front will cross the lake Wednesday night bringing a return to more seasonal conditions to end next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Adams MARINE...KEC

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