Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231349 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 949 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over Tennessee will drift south to the Gulf Coast today. Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will move quickly and be over western Lake Erie by this evening and off the east coast by Monday morning. Cooler air will return on Monday as high pressure builds across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes early this week. Low pressure will move out of the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday.
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The batch of warm advection clouds will pivot east of the area this morning and the wind will back to the southwest to minimize the lake interaction so we will break into sunshine. The exception would be extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA where some mid level clouds will continue to redevelop. Refined the hourly sky cover based on the current trends. No other changes for the mid morning update. Original "Today" discussion... Warm air advection and continued flow off of the lake will maintain a mid deck of clouds through the early morning hours. Beyond that it will be variably cloudy for most across the northern tier...but locations toward Findlay and Marion will likely have a period of significant clearing. There could be a stray sprinkle this morning across the snowbelt...but will have no mention. Bigger story today will be the warm up. That warm air advection ahead of a clipper for this evening will bring H8 temps across western OH into double digits. All of the observation sites have been rising during the second half of the night with the cloud cover and an increasing southwest wind. Will continue to forecast a breezy day with highs near 60 in PA and 60 to 68 in OH. Clipper arrives toward dark. A few showers may be nearby toward 6 pm this evening across Lake Erie and into ne OH/nw PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Clipper will pass by quick and effective reach of the precipitation with this system will be confined to an area from Lorain to Akron and points northeast. Deepest moisture will spread across Ashtabula and northwest PA...for a several hour period. Sub-zero Celsius H8 temps will infiltrate the region during the course of the day on Monday. The far eastern snowbelt areas will continue to have a bit of cyclonic flow and another minor shortwave move through the upper flow. Will continue the mention the chance of showers Monday and Monday night across the extreme northeast due to lake effect showers. To the west high pressure from south central Canada will extend southward to the Midwest and Ohio Valley. After 30s for overnight lows Monday night...high temperatures Tuesday will end up a couple of degrees on either side of 50. Wednesday will not be too different from that as we do not get winds to come around to the south until Wednesday night. There are some timing difference for the next system...but will keep the forecast as is...bringing showers into the area Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will be moving through the Central Great Lakes on Thursday with a period of showers expected. Models then differ on the timing of energy moving through the upper level trough for Friday into Saturday. Even with the timing differences either solution still produces scattered showers at times, especially across the northeastern half of the County Warning Area. Highs through the long term will generally be near to slightly below seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... High pressure is ridging into the area this morning with winds from a southwesterly direction. Cloud cover at 3500 to 5000 feet that have been generated by some warm advection ahead of a clipper storm system will decrease from west to east through mid morning. Only some afternoon cumulus across the area as the atmosphere mixes a bit deeper than the last few days. This deeper mixing should allow for some gusty afternoon winds. At this point gusts look like they will remain in the 18 to 25 knot range. Cloud cover will increase around sunset but do not expect to see any mvfr ceilings until the cold front is nearby. Any showers look like they will be northeast of a line from KCLE to KCAK. Best chances will be extreme NE OH into NW PA. Winds will shift to the west just ahead of the front then NW as the front passes from north to south after 02z. OUTLOOK...NE OH/NW PA will have non-VFR ceilings Sunday night into Monday...possibly lingering into Tuesday in scattered rain showers. Non-VFR possible again on Thursday. && .MARINE... Will keep the small craft advisory going in its current configuration as west to southwest winds continue to generate larger waves for the eastern half of the lake. Winds will attempt to decrease for a few hours as a clipper dives into the Central Great Lakes this evening. The downtime for the small craft advisory will likely be short lived as NW winds in its wake increase. Strong cold advection will assist in keeping winds up into at least Monday night. High pressure will briefly ridge across the lake on Tuesday but another fast moving storm system will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Oudeman NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Mullen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.