Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300004 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 804 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of Lake Erie will shift to New England on Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southern Plains on Thursday and drift east across Lake Erie on Friday. This system will move off the east coast Saturday with high pressure expanding across the local area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure located north of the area will shift to New England overnight. Upper level ridge remains overhead. Expect to see high cloud cover spread east over the cwa followed by mid level clouds so the cwa should be cloudy west to mostly cloudy east by the end of the night. Low levels are dry which will make it difficult for the shra west of the area to make it into the western counties until after midnight. For better collaboration, will increase pops for the end of the night. Lows will range from the lower 30s in NW PA to near 40 in the southwestern counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Deep upper level trough over the Plains will lift into the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Thursday then across Central Ohio on Friday. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into the area on Thursday with the typical delays expected near Lake Erie. Kept temperatures in the 40s at Toledo with the front not lifting north of the Lake until Friday. Moisture advection will ramp up across the area on Thursday and expect a leading band of showers to lift northeast across the area from mid-morning through late afternoon. Better chances of rain and increasing chances of thunderstorms will arrive from the west late in the day with the approach of a 500mb jet streak. Widespread rain with scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday night but will have to monitor to see what role robust convection plays that will develop upstream across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley. Surface low will move into northwest Ohio on Friday morning. Some breaks will start to develop in the showers as drier air gets wrapped into the system. Diurnally enhanced showers will likely fill back in during the afternoon. As the low pulls away to the east, northerly flow will pull the cold front south behind it with cooler air returning Friday night and Saturday. QPF on Thursday and Friday is expected to range from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter unless moisture transport gets disrupted by the upstream convection. The moisture depth becomes shallow by Saturday morning with clouds scattering out from the north as high pressure builds in. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall upper level pattern still progressive with time. Models suggest periods of ridging with troughiness moving east across the lower 48. However, deep trough digging into the Pacific northwest will cause amplification of the ridge in the eastern United States by mid week. The forecast area will see transitioning periods of waves of low pressure alternated with areas of high pressure. So, the current pattern continues through the early and middle part of next week. This pattern will still keep the polar jet stream well north of the area keeping the arctic cold air out of the forecast area for the time being. Some hints indicate a brief shot of cold air by the end of the week. Surface high pressure will exit to the east on Sunday allowing a southern stream low pressure system to move northeast toward the area. This system will initially have limited moisture associated with it but will eventually tap into some gulf moisture by Monday night and force it north into the area. The low will track east into the Carolinas by Tuesday allowing high pressure to build in from the north. The high will push east to the mid atlantic coast as yet another storm system with limited moisture begins to approach from the west on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Ceilings will slowly lower and thicken through the overnight as a warm front lifts into Ohio on Thursday. MVFR ceilings may arrive across NW Ohio by mid morning on Thursday with a areas of light rain beginning shortly after. It will take longer for this to occur across the eastern half of northern Ohio into NW PA. Some IFR will be possible with heavier showers in the afternoon. winds will become east at all locations and increase through the night. Winds will become gusty at times after 3 am and continue into the afternoon. Gusts do not appear that they will exceed the 20 to 25 knot range. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing into Friday. Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Winds on the lake will be increasing from the east northeast and it appears waves will be high enough for the western basin to support small craft advisory criteria. So, will hoist a small advisory for the western 2 lake nearshore zones from 2 AM tonight through 5 PM on Thursday. For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should be just offshore to prevent waves from reaching 4 feet. So, will not issue an advisory for this area. Otherwise, winds are expected to be fairly light through the rest of the forecast period except Monday. Winds will increase out of the east-northeast Monday and will likely need another small craft advisory then. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Lombardy

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