Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 252012 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 312 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Plains will move east up the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This will move off the Carolina Coast on Monday. Low pressure will develop over the Plains late Monday. The low will deepen Tuesday and is expected to eventually reach lower Michigan by late Wednesday. A strong cold front from this low will push east across the local area Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Just had a call and the precip has changed to light snow in NW PA. Expect temps to continue to fall and the threat for liquid precip appears over. Not many changes to the tonight forecast as a period of lake effect is expected downwind of the lake with the rest of the area mainly dry. The returns on radar right now appear to be mainly flurries or very light snow but some intensification is likely as 850 mb temps dip to around neg 12 or 13 by morning. Moisture is very limited and this can be seen on satellite as the clouds to the west of here have somewhat of a diurnal appearance. BUFKIT soundings show an inversion around 4K feet developing after midnight with low levels drying at the same time. Will keep likely wording going but accums should be no more than a couple inches. Given the recent warm weather and warm ground temps most of this accumulation should be on grassy surfaces. It will take some time for clearing to occur overnight in the west but confident skies should be partly cloudy over about the west third of the area by daybreak. Guidance temps seem reasonable and have been followed. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The lake effect should quickly die down on Sunday as ridging and low level drying win out. Warm air advection will get going during the day and temps should climb to around normal for highs. The warming will continue through midweek as a pair of low pressure systems move northeast out of the Plains. These lows will eventually merge and reach lower Michigan late Wednesday. The models are in fair agreement with this scenario which means a period of wet weather is likely at mid week. But...first things first. The models are also showing some warm air advection precip on Monday. Think this is mostly overdone for the local area with better chances just to the south. Have gone ahead and trimmed back precip chances to the far southern end of the area. Would be surprised to see much more than sprinkles. Have also slowed down the precip for early Tuesday based on the new guidance. It appears the precip will come in waves. The first is expected on Tuesday as the first low moves to just north of the area. There may be a brief dry period before a more significant wave of precip arrives as the lows merge Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will go with likely or higher wording for Tuesday night. A half inch to inch of QPF looks possible if the 12z guidance is correct. Have stayed close to guidance for temps. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models continue to track low pressure across the lower lakes on Wednesday then tracking them into New England on Thursday. Luckily it will be warm enough on Wednesday that all precip should fall as rain. Behind the system more seasonal conditions return. Rain turns to snow Wednesday night as the 850mb temps dip to -10c by daybreak Thursday. Chance of snow continues into Friday as Upper level trough will linger across the Eastern Great Lakes. High pressure finally builds over the area again Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Cold front now well SE of the forecast area. Secondary trough will move across the area this evening. Some scattered snow showers with the trough...with little or no accumulation. After that mainly just flurries for most locations. Lake effect snow showers will develop across the northern snowbelt overnight as 850mb temps dip to -14c. West winds gusting into the lower 30s will gradually diminish after sunset. High pressure will build in Sunday afternoon cutting off the snow. OUTLOOK...-shsn across the snowbelt Sunday morning. Areas on non-vfr Monday and Tuesday, returning Wednesday night. && .MARINE... West winds to 30 knots will gradually diminish overnight as high pressure slowly builds over the lake. Winds on the West half of the lake will diminish to 10 to 20 knots late this evening...but the small craft on the East half of the lake will continue into Sunday morning. Winds turn to the south Sunday night as the high shifts east of the lake. Winds will increase considerably on Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front as the low moves off to the east. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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