Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 091720 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1220 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold northwesterly winds will continue to flow across Lake Erie and produce Lake Effect Snow for the snowbelt. As high pressure begins to ridge into southern Ohio tonight into Saturday it will nudge the snow showers up the lakeshore into NW PA. The area of high pressure will be short lived with the next storm system moving from the southern Plains into the central Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor changes to near term pops and snow amounts. As mentioned in the previous near term discussion, dominant snow band pushing onshore in far NE Cuyahoga into Lake/Geauga is struggling to push southwest towards downtown this morning. Expect this band to move little in the next few hours, therefore have cut pops and snow amounts in western Cuyahoga and northeast Lorain. Upped pops and snow amounts further south from Norwalk to Mansfield and points east as area of light snow off of Lake Michigan expected to persist through the afternoon. At this point, starting to question if the band will reorient itself over downtown Cleveland and points south/west anytime before 00Z. Hi-res guidance more support for snow further southwest as winds back more westerly and upstream Lake Michigan connection coming into play. This could place a dominant band onshore in western Cuyahoga but impacts would mainly be from 00Z to 09Z. Will continue to monitor and update as needed. Previous Discussion... Northwesterly flow at the surface will persist through the day with surface winds from a more westerly direction. This should end up producing multiple bands of snow across NE OH/NW PA. A few snow showers may even reach NW OH from Lake Michigan. The heaviest bands of snow will likely be across Erie county in NW PA and potentially from Cuyahoga county into Geauga county. If this does set up across Cuyahoga county like several of the higher resolution short range models indicate the potential for upgrading to a LES warning exists. Will monitor this a bit longer and upgrade to a warning with a later update. A heavier band of snow continues to flow into northern Trumbull county as well. Current thinking is that this could persist well into the afternoon. So have hoisted a LES advisory for the northern portion of the county. Winds will remain up through the day with the strongest occurring as you move closer to the lakeshore. Will mention some blowing snow in these areas. The chances of thunder still exist if a more intense band can develop but do not feel confident enough to place this mention in the forecast at this point in time. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The Lake Effect Snow will continue to wobble across the region tonight with additional heavy accumulations possible. However the bands of snow should begin to shift slowly up the lakeshore through the overnight hours. As winds begin to shift more to the southwest on Saturday the bands of snow should eventually shift into Western NY. The ridge of high pressure that will nudge the Lake Effect Snow up the lakeshore will be short lived as strong warm advection develops. Expect to see a general light snow develop Saturday night. There may be a brief lull in the snow early Sunday but the next surge should begin during the afternoon. We will then monitor for the possibility of mixed precipitation Sunday night. Southern areas may warm enough to change over to rain. In any event it appears all locations will see 1 to 4 inches of snow. Higher amounts likely occurring closer to the lakeshore. More details on this over the next few shifts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The models show the low moving off to the ne by late monday with drier air spreading into the area which should end the precip for all but the snowbelt where some light shsn will likely linger mon night. There are still differences among the models as to the track of the low and whether enough warmer air can get pulled north for some of the precip to be rain for the se half of the cwa for a while on monday. Snow accumulation on monday should be light. The arctic cold front should cross the cwa tue night producing a brief shot of snow then the polar vortex sets up near james bay for at least the next week. This will result in a continuous flow of arctic air into the area for the next week. This pattern should result in mainly just lake effect snow showers with well below normal temps but there is some indication of a synoptic system affecting the area the weekend of the 17th and 18th. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Trend for tonight is that the band of Lake effect snow over Lake Erie will gradually lift north again as the 850MB winds shift back to the West. Still some doubt as to how far south the Lake effect snow band will sink before lifting north. OUTLOOK...Lake effect shsn mainly for Eri Saturday into Saturday night. Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow Sunday into Monday for the entire forecast area. Lake effect snow will continue in the snowbelt east of CLE into Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions will gradually settle down from west to east today through saturday as high pressure finally moves into ohio. The models continue to show a low moving ne near lake erie on monday, generally favoring a track near detroit which means in increasing se flow ahead of the low veering to sw then west later mon into mon night. Marginal SCA conditions look possible for a while late mon and mon night. A arctic front should cross the lake late tue into tue night producing a brief backing of the winds ahead of the front then wnw winds by wed with SCA conditions likely. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for OHZ012>014-089. Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ011. Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for OHZ023. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Adams

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