Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250025 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 725 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will remain near the area until low pressure moves across the lakes into Canada by Sunday afternoon pulling the front east of the area. High pressure will spread north into the region for Monday and Tuesday before shifting off to the east for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Next round of rain can be seen approaching on regional radars. The greatest concern for the overnight hours remains the potential for thunderstorms and higher rain rates that could push saturated soils over the limit and lead to flooding. Although better chances for thunderstorms will be across southern Ohio, can not rule out some thunderstorms mainly across Central and Northeast Ohio as a strong 70 knot low level jet approaches. The most likely time frame for heavy rain will be 10 PM-4 AM as the triple point moves across northwest Ohio before much drier air quickly wraps in from the west. Previous discussion... Low pressure moving NE across the lakes into Sunday afternoon will cause the warm front in southern Ohio to lift north across the area tonight then quickly be followed by a cold front being pulled east across the cwa late tonight and Sunday morning. This combination will lead to moderate to heavy rain affecting the area tonight into Sunday with the heavier rain mostly affecting the south two-thirds of the cwa. Still can see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for parts of the southeast counties so the flood watch will be left in place. The airmass will probably become unstable enough for some thunder to occur tonight and Sunday morning. As the cold front sweeps east across the area Sunday morning, cooler and drier air will push across the area. Winds around time of frontal passage may gust to 40 mph in some places. The Erie PA lakeshore may see gusts to 40 mph occur up to several hours before the cold front due to enhanced downslope flow. Temps will likely fall some on Sunday although the west will probably clear out in time to see temps recover a few degrees for the afternoon. Temps will be noticeably cooler for Sun night with lows dropping into the lower 30s for much of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high will move slowly east across the Ohio Valley and give us a chance to dry out with a nice stretch of early spring weather the first half of the week. Winds will be light enough for a lake breeze on Monday, otherwise forecast high temps 50ish. The high will be east of the area on Tuesday and winds will come around from the south. Patches of high clouds will show up but would still expect plenty of sunshine. Forecast highs will be on the warmer side of guidance given the warming air mass and increasing high sun angle. Several short waves are progged to eject from the western trough by mid week but initially it looks as though the stronger waves will be in the southern stream well south of the area. Warm advection will increase but heights will be high Wednesday. I suspect it will be a day with occasional virga, perhaps a sprinkle or a brief shower. Guidance pops are generally in the "slight chance" range (15-24 percent) and that seems reasonable at this time. Temps are a little tricky Wednesday. If we were to get some filtered sunshine we could take a run at 60 but the forecast will be a bit conservative for now in the event we have thicker clouds and sprinkles/showers. Forecast highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A trough and associated surface low will be moving in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring widespread rain to the area -- there could even be a thunderstorm or two on Thursday. The upper level trough will become a closed low Thursday afternoon and move overhead Thursday night. This means will see a mix of rain and snow late Thursday night into Friday and eventually we may see all snow for a brief time on the back edge of the system Friday night. A ridge will move in from the west Saturday and should dry everyone out. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will rise into the middle and upper 50s with temperatures Friday and Saturday topping out in the lower 40s in the wake of the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Low pressure over Missouri will track northeast across the western Great Lakes overnight. Widespread rain will accompany a warm front lifting north across the area overnight, with the heaviest rain expected in the 03-09Z window. There will be a low chance of thunderstorms, mainly from MFD-CLE and points eastward. IFR ceilings expected to expand to most sites with the passage of the warm front except possibly ERI where southerly downsloping flow may prevent it. Southerly winds will increase with gusts of 25-35 starting as early as 10Z with locally stronger winds at ERI. A low level jet with winds of 50 knots near 2000 feet will also move overhead between 06-12Z but due to the gusty surface winds, did not include low level wind sheer in the TAFs. Winds will shift to the west southwest with the passage of a cold front Sunday morning and will remain gusty through the day. A few stronger gusts also possible along and behind the front. Ceilings will lift rapidly behind the front as much drier air arrives. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings Wed and Thu.
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&& .MARINE... East winds will increase on Lake Erie early tonight as high pressure slides across eastern Canada and low pressure begins to deepen over the Mississippi Valley. Winds will begin to veer southerly overnight and southwest by morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the lake. Winds will increase to 30 knots by daybreak and a short period of stronger winds and wind gusts could work its way west to east across the lake in the early morning hours accompanying the front. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes. The high will slide across the Ohio Valley the first half of the week with relatively light winds on the lake, then another deepening storm system will track toward the western great Lakes on Thursday with strong winds developing over all of the Great Lakes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ017-020-027>031- 036>038-047. Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ021>023-032-033. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for PAZ003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams/KEC SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Mottice AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Kosarik

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