Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230721 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 320 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
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THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHRASN THIS MORNING THEN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE COOL AIR IN PLACE AIDED BY FLOW OFF OF A CHILLY LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 57 AT FDY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU. THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO BUT STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA. AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS BY 11Z WE EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MEANWHILE NW OHIO WILL BE VFR THE ENTIRE TIME. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY NE OH AND NW PA. && .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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