Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230814 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN) WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925 FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN THE WEST. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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