Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 291317 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 917 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE. DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY. VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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