Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 041035 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 635 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A NICE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING AT KCLE. HAVE BUMPED UP PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE EAST. WITH ALL OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE NEW STORMS POPPING UP. A PREVIOUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE AND REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE LATEST HRRR TAKES THIS AREA OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER BY 12Z. WILL KEEP SCATTERED WORDING GOING THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO AND THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING OVER 4000 J/KG CAPES THIS AFTERNOON. AND...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...BETTER TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT`S CONVECTION WILL BE FLOATING AROUND TO KICK OFF NEW STORMS. TOUGH TO TELL WHEN AND WHERE THE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO WILL KEEP A GENERIC SCATTERED WORDING MOST OF THE DAY. IF I HAD TO GUESS I WOULD SAY COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ENDS OF THE AREA. LOT`S OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. KCLE GOT TO 90 YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. KCAK HAS BEEN 89 OR 90 THE PAST THREE DAYS AS WELL. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. UPPER 80S LIKELY MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP THIS EVENING BUT WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NIGHTS STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR WEEKEND CONVECTION. WILL TRY FOR DRY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A FEW POP UPS EACH DAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. ALREADY HAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS PROBABLY PRUDENT TO LEAVE THEM IN EVEN THOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENCE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME SPURIOUS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIVING THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER MODELS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AT LEAST ONE OF THE PERIODS BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION TO GO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...DROP BACK TO THE LOWER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR VISIBILITY RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TO SEE LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND TO POSSIBLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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