Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250546 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control across the area through tonight. The region will be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, Tuesday through Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High clouds continue to stream north into the area as expected. Further expansion of the cloud deck should take place overnight. A few sprinkles/showers continue to lift north into the eastern portions of the forecast area but no real sign of them reaching the ground at this time. Temp/Dewpoint spreads still quite large over the area helping to keep precipitation from occurring. There was a shower reported in west central Pennsylvania last hour. Made some cloud adjustments further north in the west. Otherwise, no real major changes with this update. Previous Discussion... Upper low across the southeast US will eject northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Cloud cover will continue to increase from the south, especially across the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Model guidance coming to a consensus on the potential for some light rain showers towards the early/mid morning period on Tuesday. Models indicate significant moistening of the column across NE OH and NW PA by the morning hours with easterly Atlantic moisture return and isentropic ascent focused over the area. Will go ahead and expand at least slight chance pops westward through the area centered around 12Z, as confidence increasing on at least the need for mentionable rain chances despite fairly dry near surface layer. Any precip chances should end by mid day Tuesday across the area with clearing skies expected from west to east. No major changes to low temps tonight or highs tomorrow from previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will regain control across the area by Tuesday night, with fairly stout return flow/WAA through at least Thursday morning. This will yield well above normal temperature Wednesday into Thursday. Kept highs near previous forecast, with low 80s possible for most location Wednesday and upper 70s west/low 80s east Thursday. Low pressure will track from the Plains Wednesday night into the Great Lakes Thursday/Thursday night. Models are still in some disagreement but starting to converge with respect to the track/timing of the low and it`s attendant cold front moving east through the area. Have opted for likely pops Thursday afternoon, with chance pops in the west Thursday morning and chance pops east Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The GFS and ECMWF are in good general agreement beginning Friday morning showing low pressure northern Texas with a stationary front east into the Tennessee/lower Ohio valley. Friday night through Saturday night this low will deepen and move into the central plains as the upper trough across the southwest deepens lifting heights in the east. This in turn will lift the front north into the area as a warm front Saturday. With the overrunning precip shield on the north side of the front...a significant variable in the forecast is how far the front gets gets on Saturday. Current indications are that the front begins Saturday just to our south and reaches from TOL to ERI by Sunday morning so have went with likely pops much of the area Saturday into Sunday. Sunday and Sunday night the upper trough to our west deepens further moving the low north into the Great Lakes and lifting the warm front through the area. Expect continued active weather however in the deep southerly flow into the area ahead of the deepening system. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Mid and High level cloud cover continue to stream across the region. There have been a few showers near and east of a line from KCLE to KCAK but they have been more numerous closer to the OH/PA border into NW PA. Cant rule out locations closer to the OH/PA border getting some MVFR ceilings but the downsloping flow will likely make this difficult. Showers may be briefly more numerous across the east near sunrise. East to southeast winds will continue for all locations into the afternoon. A few locations will gust to around 20 knots at times. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.
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&& .MARINE... Issued small craft advisory much of the nearshore and will continue through 4am with buoy off Cleveland showing waves 4 to 5 feet in easterly flow. Winds expected to remain the same or increase a few knots through late afternoon before decreasing late tonight. Easterly flow will persist through Tuesday before veering southeast Tuesday night as low pressure moves into the upper midwest and western lakes. Active weather returns Wednesday night and Thursday as the low deepens and moves northeast across the lakes forcing and cold front across Lake Erie. Winds will turn southwest on the lake and increase to 15 to 20 knots and bringing the lake close to small craft conditions. Friday and Saturday no headlines are expected. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ142>147.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...TK

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