Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 262342 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 642 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR THE 10 BELOW ZERO THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY START TO FALL LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER OR WINDS DO NOT DROP BELOW 5 MPH OR LESS BUT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH NEAR THE LAKE TO DROP CLOSER TO 15 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN BY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PLENTY OF SUN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AS WE DECOUPLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW BUT A MUCH WIDER SPREAD IS LIKELY. VALLEYS AND COOLER LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW. WIND CHILL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED AGAIN DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AT MANY SITES AGAIN. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY REBOUND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS BACK SOUTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO FAIRLY WEAK. MODELS SHOW QPF DURING THIS TIME RANGING FROM .35 TO .75 OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY... ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER AGAIN AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING AND SOME FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH MVFR VISIBILITY STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN GOING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUR OR SCATTERING OUT. MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE WITH THAT. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OVER 20C SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. THE NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEST WINDS COULD BE A BIT BRISK...15-20 KNOTS...BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH SYSTEM SLIDES BY THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KOSARIK

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