Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290502 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LAPLANTE AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS

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