Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280831 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 431 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FEET. OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014- 023-089. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142- 143.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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