Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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104 FXUS61 KCLE 231928 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 328 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and shift east Tuesday, allowing a cold front to push through on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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No change to current weather pattern as strong upper ridge remains anchored over the forecast area. Expect clear skies with temps from the upper 50s into the lower 60s. Could see a little patchy morning fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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No change for mondays forecast as upper ridge holds fast. Expect dry conditions and well above normal temps. Persistence is the way to go till a cold front crosses the region at mid week. Unseasonable warm temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday with 90 possible again at the traditional warm spots. Expect to set some more temperature records. The cold front is still on track for Wednesday but the system is very moisture starved. Wouldn`t be surprised if the front is slower than forecast given the presence of a hurricane off the east coast. Have trimmed back precip chances back to about the eastern two thirds of the area and even there will need no more than a 20 or 30 pop.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The broad trough that develops over the eastern two-thirds of the country is progged to deepen by the weekend as several strong short waves propogate through the trough. It may be just cold enough aloft for a few lake effect rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday in the snowbelt. At the very least we should see some lake effect clouds. The next cold front is due later Friday or Friday night depending on which model you prefer. I prefer a slower solution given the sharpening of the trough. Will have s small chance of showers Friday, mainly in the snowbelt, then a better chance Friday night although most of the moisture could be limited except where there is lake enhancement. Will keep a chance of showers going in the snowbelt into the weekend as 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to 2-4C. High temperatures will probably be a shade below normal in the mid and upper 60s Thursday and Friday, then struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday behind the cold front. Lows will go from the 50s to the 40s by the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions under clear skies will continue today as high pressure remains anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog. && .MARINE...
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High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place through Tuesday with quiet weather continuing on the lake. Winds will remain variable under 10 knots the next 3 days. A cold front is still on track to cross the lake on Wednesday. Winds will become northerly behind this feature and increase some. We could briefly get close to small craft conditions on Wednesday night or early Thursday. Northerly winds will continue for the end of the week.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...Adams/DJB/Kubina LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Kubina

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