Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 041951 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 351 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN QUEBEC NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAINLY DUE TO HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN OHIO OR NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG CHANGE BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED- THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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