Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 020722 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 322 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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