Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232357 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 757 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... STILL MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING THROUGH THE EVENING IS ACROSS INLAND NW PA. CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME THE DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW OFF OF THE WARMER LAKE TO GET SOME LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP FROM ERIE TO CLEVELAND. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE WE WILL NEED TO NUDGE LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SEEM TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS TOO QUICKLY. THEY SHOULD DECREASE BUT NOT THAT FAST BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE TROF ALOFT. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND OF COURSE WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WENT TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS IN SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS NOT REAL HIGH TO GO MORE THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH MOISTURE FIELDS ON SUN SO NOT SURE WHETHER DRY PUNCH WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OR NOT. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS GOING SUN AND AGAIN ON MON MON WITH WRAP MOISTURE AND UPPER S/W ACTING TO SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS SHOWN MOVING OVER THE AREA BY TUE BUT WILL HANG ON TO SMALL CHANCE POPS DUE TO UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. THE NEXT S/W HELPING TO HOLD THE MAIN TROUGH IN POSITION DIVES SE TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE SO WILL UP POPS MORE FOR WED. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY MON AND SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TUE AND WED AS COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SKIES ARE OVERCAST TO START THE TAF CYCLE WITH DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT BUT HARD TO TIME AT EACH AIRPORT. CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO FIRST...AND MAY TAKE UNTIL MORNING AT CAK/YNG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. AREAS OF BR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MFD/CAK/YNG WHEN SKIES CLEAR OUT BUT VISIBILITIES NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO LOW AS DEWPOINTS FALL OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 15Z...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.
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&& .MARINE... STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LEADING TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THU SO WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TO BE LIGHT THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN A SOUTH FLOW WILL SET UP FOR SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME SAT NIGHT AND SUN BUT IN GENERAL A LOW SHOULD MOVE THRU THE LAKES TO BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY MON AFTERNOON. THUS SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST DURING THIS PERIOD INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS MON AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KEC MARINE...ADAMS

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