Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 200330 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1030 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern states will slowly move off the coast this weekend and provide a south flow and warmer temperatures across the area. Low pressure from Colorado will track to the western Great Lakes on Monday with the associated cold front sweeping across the local area Monday evening. High pressure will build in from the west through the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The south wind continues tonight, enhanced slightly ahead of a weak trough dropping across the Great Lakes. Actual temperatures remain a couple of degrees above the forecast and above guidance. No reason to think that this will change overnight with milder temperatures also aided by an increase in cloud cover. Raised the hourly temperature forecast a degree or two in most spots through the night as well as the low temperature forecast. No other changes for the late evening update. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... Just some high clouds expected across the area overnight. Temps have struggled to get much above freezing today except in the good downslope areas. Strong southerly winds will continue so not expecting much of a temperature drop off tonight. Most locations will drop 5 to 8 degrees and that is about it. Tomorrow moistening finally occurs in the lower levels. Forecast soundings showing a sharp inversion persisting at under 5000 feet during the day so a layer of strato cumulus will likely form by midday. The warm air advection will continue Saturday night and models continue to show some light precip developing overnight. Most of this will have a hard time reaching the surface given the dry mid levels above the inversion. Will continue with small chance mention of very light precip. More than likely it will be just some patchy drizzle or sprinkles. Temps tomorrow night will likely drop off a few degrees after sunset and then should hold steady or even rise a few degrees. This is important because this means any precip that does form will be liquid and not freezing or frozen precip. Only the southern end of the area has a legitimate chance to see measurable precip by 12z Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Persistent WAA into the region will bring above normal temperatures to the area Sunday into Monday. Isentropic ascent will lift north into the forecast area on Sunday, with increasing chances for light rain and/or drizzle. Expecting any precip to be light and more of a drizzle through most of the day Sunday, however even with any rain QPF amounts will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch. A little better forcing move north through the region late Sunday night into early Monday, with could lead to some rain showers, with high chance to low likely pops during this period. Rain chances decrease a bit Monday morning across the area, especially east of I- 71, as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Pops increase through the day as the front moves toward the area. Models still a bit off with timing, but are coming to better agreement. The highest pops will be from 18Z Monday through 06Z Tuesday. Most of the precip will remain rain as the front passes with a brief transition to snow with any lingering precip behind the front. Continued with chance/likely pops on Tuesday as the upper low tracks east across the area. Some lake enhancement is possible across the snowbelt, especially in the wake of the low, but will be dependent on the amount of open water over the lake. No major changes to temperatures through this period, with highs on Monday possibly reaching the low 50s across the area ahead of the frontal passage. Temperatures will generally be falling through the 30s during the day Tuesday behind the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Little change in the extended. Lingering surface trough across the Eastern Great Lakes will continue to produce snow showers in the snowbelt through Wednesday. Trough will finally shift east as a Large dome of arctic air will moves across the Ohio Valley Thursday. The high quickly shifts east setting up warming trend across the forecast area. Temperates warm into the lower to mid 30s Thursday, and into the lower 40s on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR into Saturday morning with patchy high clouds and south winds gusty as times. Low confidence in the Saturday forecast. We have been under a south flow for two days and the lower layers are going to moisten up, especially as the snow starts to melt. Stratus will develop and MVFR ceilings are likely, but the arrival time at each TAF site is uncertain. The best bet is from mid morning into early afternoon but some stratus could start to develop as early as pre dawn or it could even take until Saturday night. The forecast will be updated as appropriate. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR much of the time Sunday through Tuesday. Gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Persistent southwest flow will continue through the weekend. Winds 15-25 kts tonight and Saturday will subside Saturday night and Sunday. Southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front on Monday with winds veering southwest by Tuesday. Light westerly flow will continue through the rest of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Greenawalt

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