Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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062 FXUS61 KCLE 261105 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 605 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push up the ohio valley today and off the Virginia coast by Monday. A low will move out of the plains Tuesday and across Michigan Wednesday pulling a cold front across the region early Wednesday night followed by reinforcing cold fronts on Thursday and Friday. High pressure will move up the Ohio valley Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure moving up the oh valley will cause the lake effect conditions to become less favorable thru the day. Another inch or so could accumulate in some spots in mainly nw pa before the snow showers taper to mostly just flurries for the afternoon. The axis of the ridge of high pressure pushing east should bring a period of partly cloudy skies west to east across the cwa today but by evening mid level clouds from a weak upper system and warm advection should be spreading back into the area. Temps should start to moderate in the afternoon with highs eventually making it into a range from the mid 30s east to lower 40s west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection continues tonight thru Tue but lower level convergence with the warm front does not look good enough for much precip until later Mon night and Tue. Thus, there could be some flurries in the south late tonight and Mon morning changing to just a threat for sprinkles or light rain Mon as temps warm into the mid to upper 40s. The threat for precip will increase and spread south to north Mon night and Tue as a moist low level jet feeds into the frontal boundary inching north. The airmass aloft in the snowbelt could still be just cold enough for more snow versus rain late mon night so a little accumulation could occur in this area if enough precip develops before warmer temps arrive on Tue for just rain. The band of rain may lift ne thru the area by later Tue as the warm front pushes into Lake Erie so there may be a lull in the shra Tue afternoon into evening. Increasing dynamics from the low tracking just nw of the area Tue night and from thermal instability is expected to produce an area of convection that works east across the cwa Tue night. Will add mention thunder to the forecast and increase QPF. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another mild start to the day expected on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 50s, climbing into the lower 60s before the cold front swings through during the afternoon. Rain will likely be ongoing in the south and east during the morning with showers filling in all areas with the front. Precipitation will transition to snow overnight with minor accumulations possible in NW PA. Lake effect snow showers will decrease on Thursday as moisture depth dwindles. Models are trying to develop a clipper that will slide across the area Thursday night. We will continue to monitor changes in track over the coming days which will effect which areas could see a quick snow accumulation. High pressure will build overhead on Friday followed by warming temperatures as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Evidence of the end of the snow showers appearing upstream as the ridge building in is ending the snow showers across far western MI. Mix of lower end VFR and MVFR will continue overnight. Best chance for MVFR conditions is where there is some upslope or lake influence with the west winds...so MFD/YNG/CLE/ERI. Flurries outside of the snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA...where the better snow showers are expected. KERI may very well dip into IFR range with the snow...but there is no timing it without a developed band/enhanced snow. Clearing will arrive Sunday from west to east. Surface high passes to our south and as that backs the winds to the southwest...the snow shower chances will end by mid afternoon for KERI and ceilings will improve there too. A few gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible for TOL/FDY/CLE/MFD for Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory has expired on the west half of the lake as winds settle into the 10-20 knot range. The Advisory will continue through 3 PM from Cleveland eastward as waves are slower to come down. Winds are expected to back to the southwest with the higher waves shifting towards the open waters this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will slide east across the Upper Great Lakes tonight with southwest winds increasing to 20-25 knots on the open waters for a few hours. Better marine conditions expected on Monday as a ridge expands across the eastern Great Lakes. The next system to watch will be a low pressure system tracking out of the Plains on Tuesday that will slide east across Lake Erie on Wednesday. This system will pull a strong cold front across the lake with northwest winds sharply increasing to 20-25 knots or more on Wednesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...KEC

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