Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300830 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 430 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. KEEPING AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THUS FAR HOLDING WITH A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING TO NEED AN ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE AROUND 6 AM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE NEAR 800MB WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE SO JUST EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT SHOULD BE MOVING ENOUGH THAT THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING IS MINIMAL. DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SOME PEAKS OF SUN THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...LOW 70S IN NW PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER LAKE ERIE...OR PUSHING INTO NE OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE PRETTY LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND REMOVED THE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. ONE LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE. LEFT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH EXPANDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TO END THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO THE MID 70S TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A CHANGE WHERE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.L SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW BUT NO DEEP TROUGHINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHAPING UP TO HEAD BACK INTO THE TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST AND LARGE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL NOT BE SPOILED BY RAIN. THE TREND IS PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME SO WILL BE DROPPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY. A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW SUNDAY AND UP POPS TO A CHANCE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL TAKE PLACE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LAST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP AND DOWN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS ARE POISED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION GOING. EXPECTING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART LATER TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET SOME BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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LAKE MAY GET RILED UP A BIT STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST BURST OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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