Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 182300 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 700 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY. A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY. COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP VFR GOING UNTIL 16Z SUN WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THRU THEN. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THRU INDIANA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA IN THE SOUTH WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AT FDY AROUND 16 OR 17Z AND PUSHING ALL THE WAY THRU ERI BY 00Z SUN EVE. CIGS WILL BE RAPIDLY COMING DOWN AS THE RAIN GETS GOING WITH MOST GUIDANCE PREDICTING LOW MVFR/IFR BY 22Z TO 00Z LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK..IFR/MVFR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN PERIODS OF NON VFR MON NIGHT INTO THU.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...OUDEMAN

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