Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 292339 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 739 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE PRECIP MENTION BACK TO THE WEST A LITTLE AND GONE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED WORDING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY CONDITION AS WELL. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE AND UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE OMEGA IS LIMITED. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 16C. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM CLE EAST AND WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY AND THEN CHANCE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SPRINKLES EARLY FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS TOUGH FOR NW OHIO. WENT WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO IT MAY END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WHAT WILL BE LEFT TONIGHT IS A BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING STILL EXPECTED FOR TOL/FDY BUT FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR OTHER SITES. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
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&& .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR A PORTION OF THE LAKE AS WAVES SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...KEC

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