Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280452 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO. PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER). BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOMORROW EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE HAZARDOUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...DJB

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