Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 170505 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 105 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AT THE SURFACE AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THE EXIT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. BIG QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN LOW TEMPS. BASED ON LATEST DATA...FEEL WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER AND MORE EAST FOR A LONGER PART OF THE NIGHT THAN THOUGHT EARLIER SO HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF THE EAST PART OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TO MAINE BY SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE RETREAT OF THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE AREA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY MAJOR COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SREF HAS VERIFIED QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OVER THE CURRENT SITUATION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STARTING 12Z MONDAY...IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BUCKLE AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DIG OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THEN LINGERS OVER THE CLEVELAND FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. IN SHORT...WE ARE DONE WITH THE COLD FOR AWHILE AND CAN FINALLY WELCOME SPRING. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST BET FOR RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE THUNDER...SO THIS UPDATE WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RAMAONS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY CIRRUS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY. THE EAST FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE WEST END FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KIELTYKA

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