Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011626 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1226 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY DRY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK. STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE. EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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