Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCLE 250103
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
903 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England
Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region
through Saturday. A cold front will reach northwest Ohio by late
Sunday and move east of the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Tweaked temps down a couple of degrees in the south overnight for
the 930 update.
High pressure and a dry stable airmass across the region will
continue overnight. Will have clear skies in the forecast with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday
morning and should drift east to New England by evening. Our next
weather maker will come on Sunday as a warm front moves into
northwest Ohio. The warm front will be quickly followed within a
few hours by a weak cold front. Models show plenty of moisture
moving in with the system along with model capes around 2000j/kg
and li`s of -6 or so for the afternoon west half. Will have a chance
pop for Lucas county during the morning Sunday. For the afternoon
will have chance pops as far east as a Marion to Norwalk line and
likely pops far west. Sunday evening will move the likely pops to
the remainder of the area and drop western pops back to chance.
Monday morning will still need a chance pops southeast but will
have a dry forecast elsewhere as drier air moves in from the
northwest. Monday should be a few degrees cooler but with 850mb
temps still +18c went above guidance with mid/upper 80s for
highs. The real cold front will move into the northwest Monday
evening with 850mb temps 10c lower Tuesday 12z vs Monday
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The bulk of the cooler air arrives late Monday night/early
Tuesday...taking away the heat of the previous days. Temperatures
will run slightly below normal through Friday...mid 70s Tuesday
inching warmer to near 80 by Friday...as the synoptic pattern holds
with a trough across the eastern U.S. and the ridge across the west.
While much of the time is dominate by high pressure across the lower
Great Lakes...there still remains some question around the strength
and track of shortwave energy that will move through the mean trough
toward Friday. Will introduce a 20 percent chance of precipitation
to acknowledge its presence...but confidence is low in its track
and influence on the local weather. If indeed it does affect
us...then temperatures too may be a couple of degrees cooler.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Clear skies and light winds are expected during the period. Lake
breezes will end the next couple of hours but redevelop Saturday
Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected to return late Sunday or
Sunday night. Non VFR possible across NE OH/NW PA on Tuesday.
High pressure will be in control of the weather through the majority
of the weekend. The gradient slackens for tonight through Saturday.
The high shifts east on Sunday and allows for southerly flow across
the lake. Thunderstorms will likely accompany a front Sunday
evening/night. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase for
Tuesday when the push of cooler air finally takes place behind a
secondary front. Tuesday may have a chance for a Small Craft
Advisory. High pressure builds over the lake for Wednesday.