Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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703 FXUS61 KCLE 091742 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1242 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BAND OF SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL SNOW. MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WE WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE SNOW ESPECIALLY AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -20C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE TO EXTREME OFF LAKE ERIE INTO THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW STARTING TONIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW FALL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT IN SOME AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT. THE BEST BET WOULD BE INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA BUT THE ENTIRE SNOWBELT IS AT RISK OF EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LAKESHORE AS WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH TENDS TO PUSH MOST OF THE SNOW INLAND. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE SNOWBELT. THE SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER ARCTIC AIR OVER SPREADS THE AREA. SOME RANDOM FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME SUN WILL PEAK OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON THURSDAY. TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED. SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL LOCATIONS HAVING CHANCES OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL BE THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON. ONCE AGAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY AND SEE WHICH BANDS GET THE BOOST ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SO HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO COMMON. THE REGION WILL WARM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IS FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KFDY. AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING KTOL AND KFDY AND SHOULD GET INTO KMFD AND KCLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA HAS BEEN SHRINKING HOWEVER IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT SHOULD ALSO IMPACT KERI KYNG AND KCAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MOSTLY MVFR ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER EXPECT IFR IN THE SNOW. MODELS SHOW LIFT DEVELOPING AVER LAKE ERIE AND SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH. EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT APPEARS TO BE A DEFINITE THING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012>014-089. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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