Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221608 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1208 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front over the northern great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday. A stronger cold front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Short wave will be southeast of the area this afternoon with lessening chances of thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be warming through the layer so capping will increase. The weak front will remain to the north although the surface trough associated with the morning shortwave may hang up across the area. We should end up with a hot and mainly dry afternoon unless new activity can develop along the surface trough. highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index 100 or higher mainly west of I-77. The heat advisory will remain in effect.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Heat Advisory continues Saturday. The weak cold front drops south across the area overnight and early Saturday. Will continue the chance pops across the south on Saturday. Forecast is dry for Saturday night/early Sunday. Convection out ahead of the approaching cold front on Sunday results in chance pops across the western sections during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Morning timing of passage of weak cold front mon morning for much of the cwa may mean a dry frontal passage so will keep best pops in the se. Pocket of drier air with high pressure looks to stay over the area thru wed then some moisture starts to return for thu to allow for small chc pops by then. Temps should run above normal mon, moderating back to around to slightly above normal for tue thru thu. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A prefrontal trough is triggering a band of shra/tsra from near eri sw to near cle to south of fdy. This band will quickly move off to the se this morning so only an hour or so of possible reduced conditions from the rain at most. Any patchy fog this morning will dissipate by 14z with a sct to bkn field of cu developing with additional high clouds above. A weak cold front will drift sse into the area by tonight triggering sct shra/tsra. Will hold tafs to just vcsh/vcts due to a less than 50% chc pop. Fog will develop tonight for most of the area with some spots possibly seeing some ifr. OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr from isold shra/tsra Sat and again Sun into Mon. && .MARINE... WSW winds running 15 to 20 knots for a good part of the day will probably produce 3 to 5 foot waves from ashtabula east today so will run a small craft advisory with the associated beach hazard into early tonight. A weak cold front crosses the lake early tonight and winds start to veer to the nw while diminishing west to east. Light and changeable winds set up out of the sw by sun night and increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of the next weak cold front due to cross the lake on mon that veers winds to the west then nw late mon and mon night. Winds diminish on tue as highs pressure spreads into the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-006>011- 017>021-027>031-036>038-047. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Adams

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