Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301738 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DIURNAL CUMULUS CONTINUES OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS LINGER OVER INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DRIER AIR PENETRATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SO DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TAKING PLACE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLIPPER HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NAM IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER. WENT CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH REQUIRED HIGHER POPS LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NE OHIO MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SNOW...WITH A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN NW PA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND INCLUDED LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR...FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NW OHIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODEL STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY. IF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION... HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR SHOWING A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA WITH BEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP ACROSS THE AREA SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO TAPERED POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST MOISTURE RETURNS WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO DRY. TEMPS CHANGEABLE WITH SEASONAL HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY...DROPPING BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. THE GFS WOULD SAY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOL. MONDAY MILD. FOLLOWED GFS/WPC BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A TRACK FROM NEAR KTOL TO NEAR KPIT OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THIS LINE AND WILL BRING PRECIP INTO NW OHIO AROUND 04Z. IT WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT KERI WITH A MIX OR ALL SNOW AT KYNG. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR AT KERI AND KYNG OVERNIGHT AND MANY OTHER PLACES TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SHEAR AT KFDY AND KMFD OVERNIGHT. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR GIVEN THEIR LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE LOW ON TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NO GALES THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY COME TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. TUESDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...TK

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