Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280029 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 729 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO INDIANA BORDER THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. TRIED TO BLEND THE HOURLY POP FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE RADAR TRENDS... THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND SPREADING ACROSS NE OH. EVENTUALLY THE AREA WILL FILL IN ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES. ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 06Z THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER 06Z IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. I EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S BY 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND I SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS ONLY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. BY FRIDAY A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR MIXED...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN ON SATURDAY....HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AT 00Z THE COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND FDY. BY 06Z THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR ERI. SOME SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR STARTING EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NW OH. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. .OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT RESULTING IN HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES STRONG ENOUGH FOR US TO POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GARNET/KOSARIK NEAR TERM...GARNET/KOSARIK SHORT TERM...GARNET LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...BC

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