Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261125 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 725 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough across the eastern Great Lakes will pull away from the region today. High pressure will briefly be in place for the latter half of today. Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley early Saturday morning with another on Sunday. The active pattern will continue into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No big changes for today. Have just tweaked precip chances with latest hi-res guidance. Sky coverage out west will have to be watched. Fairly sharp edge to the stratus. Maybe they can manage to have more sun than the forecast reads. previous discussion...We are winding down with one system to the east this morning, but attention will be focused well out to our west for the potential for another round of showers/possible thunderstorms for tonight. In between will be a ridge of high pressure. Far less coverage of showers this morning except for extreme northeast OH/nw PA. Still cannot rule out a brief shower from Elyria to Akron and points east through midday. Breaks in the overcast are across northwest OH and there will be a window of time today with some sun, but high clouds will be approaching by mid afternoon. Those western counties across the I-75 corridor will have the chance at topping 70 degrees for highs, all others will be sticking in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Any consistency in the forecast models ends by this evening and the spread is unusually large for these shorter time periods, but this has been the case for a better part of a week now. Broadly speaking there are common threads, but the details of the numerous smaller scale features leaves us with a forecast that will continue to be in flux. So, tonight we will be watching for an expected complex of thunderstorms to move across IL/IN and into Ohio. The spread in North/South placement of the shortwave as it works on flattening our menial ridge is quite large. This will dictate who gets precip tonight. Will focus the highest precip chances from Findlay over to Marion for now, subject to change. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the setup, but location will need to be fine tuned. Then for Saturday an isolated threat of showers/thunderstorms may remain. Went with the cooler guidance for highs if recent track record is any indication and see no reason to go above climo in the wake of Friday night system. A little added sun would boost temperatures. Sunday has been the day with a somewhat consistent indication of shower/thunderstorm threat with low pressure to track across the state. Have likely precip chances both Sunday and Sunday evening. If this can hold, this may end up being raised. Monday may give us a break as we await, not for long, the next system from the upper midwest. Areas near and south of US 30 will likely get another inch between now and Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not many changes to the long term today. The period appears to be unsettled but model differences continue to make it difficult to pinpoint rain chances and coverage. Have been unable to find a completely dry day during the period so the forecast will continue to see small chances every day. Hopefully later runs will come into agreement and fine tuning can be made. Temperatures will continue below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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A persistent band of showers continues to come off the lake. This band may eventually find it`s way to CAK for a couple hours this morning. Elsewhere in the east light rain or drizzle remains possibly through late morning. Already seeing some holes developing in the IFR cigs but it will take till 18z or so for them to lift to MVFR completely. This will take the longest over NW PA. Some breaks remain likely in the west...especially from late morning through early evening. The models continue to have trouble pinpointing rain chances for tonight but right now it looks like a period of showers and possibly thunderstorms are likely in the west tonight. Will go ahead and bring MVFR weather and precip back into TOL and FDY after dark. Further east chances for rain appear to be less but some pockets of MVFR cigs are likely. NW flow will gradually become west today before becoming light and variable toward evening. SE flow will develop later tonight. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend.
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&& .MARINE... West to northwest flow will become light this evening as a surface ridge crosses the lake. Low pressure will pass near the lake on Saturday with a brief period of southerly flow expected ahead of the low. Winds will become N to NW on the backside of this system. Unsettled weather will continue most of the remainder of the weekend as well with the flow again becoming southerly ahead of another storm system. A cold front is expected to cross the lake sometime early Monday with the flow finally settling down and becoming westerly through the end of the period. Do not anticipate needing any small craft headlines during the period but thunderstorms will be a concern most of this holiday weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Kubina

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