Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 270927 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains today will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift across the local area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Models continue to advertise the upper ridge over the Central Atlantic coast building nw into the Ohio valley today through Saturday. Given the lack of forcing today will keep most areas dry with only a slight chance pop east and a chance pops west in the afternoon. Will likely get debris clouds across the area today from convection to our west but still we should see plenty of sun so will go with a partly sunny/partly cloudy forecast. highs low to mostly mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... For tonight...a warm front will move northeast into indiana by 00z this evening near a Chicago-Dayton line. At the same time the NAM brings a weak short wave into Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. Given the weak wave and the approaching front...will bring a low chance pop in for early evening far west. On Saturday am a bit concerned about the upper ridge shifting east while moisture increases across the area. The MAV guidance remains wetter than the MET with high chance to likely pops vs chance or less. At this time feel that we will see more coverage by then however do not feel likely pops are prudent at this time with a continued lack of forcing so will just go with chance pops. Late Sunday into Monday we should see a cold front drop across the area from the northwest. Would expect convection to be along or ahead of the front. Will continue with chance pops but may need to raise in the future with a better picture of timing...moisture and instability. highs generally in the lower 80s saturday and Sunday. Highs closer to the upper 70s to Near 80 Monday post cold front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level ridge will build north for the first half of the long term forecast period. This will promote high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic states, which will in turn allow for warm, moist flow into the region. Temperatures will be cooler than Memorial Day weekend as a cold front on Monday morning will knock temperatures down for us, so expecting upper 70s/lower 80s for long term period. The upper ridge and surface high should keep the area dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday and the only cloud cover to note would be fair weather, diurnal cumulus. For late Wednesday and beyond, the long term models diverge quite a bit. The GFS greatly amplifies the ridge over the eastern United States and generates an upper level cut off high. With the GFS solution, there would be a couple pieces of energy in the mid levels that could support convection on Thursday, but it would be scattered precipitation at best. The ECMWF solution brings an upper level trough across the northern United States that would erode the upper level ridge and bring widespread convection to the region for Thursday. For now, have a chance for showers and thunderstorms and upper 70s for the end of the long term period and will have to fine tune as long term model solutions become better organized. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Other than some widespread cirrus and a couple remaining cumulus in extreme Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, skies look relatively clear for the overnight. Biggest concern ahead is for some potential MVFR mist/haze/fog developing at the TAF sites as dew points remain in the 60s, making for a muggy night. Winds across the area at still coming from the south anywhere from 5 to 12 knots. If these winds keep up, it may be difficult to get a sustained period of reduced visibilities. Therefore...went with a tempo MVFR group rather than a predominant group, but may need to amend if the winds calm and the boundary layer decouples. Otherwise, things will begin VFR and benign on Friday. Some diurnal cumulus will begin forming in the late morning. There could be an isolated shower Friday afternoon with peak daytime heating, but confidence is low, so left out any precipitation mention in the TAFs. Winds will remain 12 knots or less from the south for Friday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms as well as early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday. && .MARINE... Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure settles well to our south and east. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly through Sunday night with the exception of a lake breeze Friday and Saturday afternoons. A weak cold front will move across the area early Monday morning with some rain and a shift to westerly winds for a day before shifting to the north on Tuesday. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no small craft advisories are expected through early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.