Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 212308 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 708 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY... THEN STALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUMP NORTHWARD IN THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND OFF INTO NY. WATCHING DECAYING SHOWERS/TS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI. THESE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT COULD BRING A LATE EVENING SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE LAKE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE WEST EXITING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SHOULD EXPAND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG OVER THE MIDWEST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE BRUSHES OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH UNKNOWNS HAVE SHRA/TS CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THOSE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STILL THINKING AREA WILL BE FINE WITHOUT ANY FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STARTED WITH THE LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS GIVEN THE INCREASING DEW POINTS SO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY SHOULD START WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST...PROBABLY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND THE WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHEAST AND THE THETA-E AXIS PUSHES ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING THAT OCCURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OHIO...PROBABLY NOT QUITE REACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH WILL OBVIOUSLY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE THERE AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 AND HUMID ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER WHERE IT REMAINS RAIN FREE. THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS ENHANCED THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALSO LIFT OUT. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MORE SUBSIDENCE. BY FRIDAY EVENING THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MIDWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ANY LUCK...THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID. HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM AND HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR WEATHER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH SOME INSTABILITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. WE CAN STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM KCLE EASTWARD ACROSS KCAK INTO THE KYNG AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL POSSIBLY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NW OHIO. OTHER LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST COULD BE IN THE PATH AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.