Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201335 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 935 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front near Lake Erie will move back and forth across the area today into the weekend before finally moving to the southeast on Monday. High pressure will spread east over the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MCS to the West is plunging south and convection North of Lake Erie continues tracking East. Expect both to continue to weaken this morning and be the focus for redevelopment this afternoon. That said removed all mention of convection for this morning and early afternoon. Since no convection bumped afternoon temps up a couple of degrees. Original...Remnants of MCS reduced to showers near the Fort Wayne area. Showers were moving southeast and believe they will miss the CWA. Second MCS now formed over srn WI and was moving southeast. The HRRR has this convection approaching the area 12-14Z however it appears to be diminishing as it does, never actually reaching the area. Will need to continue to watch this evolution. Otherwise, there is a cold front just north of the area that should drop south across the area during the day. Expect this front to become the focus for afternoon/evening convection. Brought chance pops to the area late morning/towards noon from the north and reaching likely east half around 00Z. SPC continues to have the area under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms as capes of 3,000-4,000 J/kg expected over the area tomorrow afternoon. Convection should move south/southwest and diminish late this evening and overnight as high pressure and drier air move in from the north behind the boundary. Friday the high will move east and allow the front to return from the southwest as a warm front. Models show moisture and instability returning through the afternoon. for now will have chance pops west/southwest. Highs today upper 80s to near 90. Thursday highs from around 80 far northeast to the mid/upper 80s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Active period expected this weekend with energetic, quasi-zonal upper level flow and moist low level return flow. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the remnants of upstream convection/decaying MCS tracking into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday into Sunday as a surface low track into the Great Lakes region, ahead of a diving upper shortwave from Manitoba through the upper Midwest. For now, have keyed in on the highest pops from late Friday night through Saturday night, with widespread likely pops in the grids. Hard to pinpoint exact convective evolution this far out, but exact placement and severity of Saturday/Saturday night convection likely contingent on the late Friday night convection remnants, with the focus of the late Saturday convection likely along a remnant outflow boundary/composite warm front. The aforementioned low will drag a cold front through the area Sunday, with precip chances diminishing from west to east as the front passes but low chances continuing through Sunday night until a secondary front/trough swings through the area. No major changes to temps during the weekend, with a bit of uncertainty for Saturday highs given potential cloud cover/convective debris and uncertainty with the location of the warm front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A quiet first half of the week is expected as a large area of high pressure build southeast across the Great Lakes Monday through Wednesday. Some lingering showers are possible Monday as a cold front exits the region, but mainly dry conditions are expected Monday night through Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler and conditions less humid during the period, with Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 70s and lows near 60 for many locations. A warming trend will begin Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts east of the region, with highs near 80. Widespread precip chances don`t return until at least Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... For today expect an increasing chance of thunderstorms through the day as a cold front drops into the area and becomes the focus for low level forcing and convective development. High pressure will build in from the north overnight forcing any remaining convection south and southwest through the evening and early overnight hours as drier air moves in from the north. Expect VFR today outside of thunderstorms. Overnight lingering convection south and southwest could continue restrictions. Toward morning Friday non VFR possible due to morning fog. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Friday night through Sunday in early morning fog/mist or scattered thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will increase out of the southwest today, but remain in the 10- 12 knot range, as a frontal boundary sits just north of the lake. The front will drop south across the lake tonight with winds veering northerly less than 10 knots. Winds will become light and variable Friday into Friday night as high pressure drifts across the lake. The frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front late Friday night into Saturday with winds increasing out of the south around 10 knots Saturday, veering southwest Saturday night. The flow will increase to 10-15 knots Sunday as low pressure approaches the lake, veering northwest as the low pulls a cold front across the lake Sunday night through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...DJB/TK SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...TK MARINE...Greenawalt

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