Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201210 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 710 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH 6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY. BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF 4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144- 162>164. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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