Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
358 FXUS61 KCLE 211023 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 623 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await the passage of the upper level trough. As this trough passes it will allow much cooler air to spill into the area. A clipper type storm system will move across the the region Sunday evening into Sunday night. High pressure will increase its influence on the area Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Still some jet energy to round the base of the upper level trough. Until this occurs the trough will not move very fast at all. Had to pull the shower/rain chances further west since trough struggling to drift eastward. Drier air will continue to undercut the upper trough through the morning which will help to erode showers from west to east. Previous discussion... Low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await the passage of the upper level trough. Until the 7H trough passes there will continue to be showers and areas of drizzle. Have continued the high pops for much of the region and only slowly decrease them from west to east through the day. Additional rainfall today will likely be less than a quarter of an inch. Since the cold front is east of the area it will be cooler than yesterday. Highs will only be in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough should be east of the region at some point this evening which will allow the cooler air to spill across the warm waters of Lake Erie. This should lead to a period of lake effect showers that will ramp up through midnight. The best instability and moisture to work with will occur very early Saturday morning into the afternoon. 850 mb temperatures will dip to -2C to -4C by sunrise Saturday morning. This may be just cold enough to keep a mention of snow in the forecast for the hilltops. Warm advection will increase by Saturday evening with the lake effect showers ending. Will then await the arrival of a clipper storm system that will impact the area late Sunday. Best chances of showers with it will be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. There should be another round of lake effect showers in its wake. Cant rule out a mix of snow again Monday morning but the airmass is slightly warmer. So with that said we did not mention that potential in the forecast. High pressure will slowly increase its influence into Monday night with lake effect showers ending after midnight. Saturday will be a cool day with highs ranging from the mid 40s across NW PA to the mid 50s across NW OH where sunshine is anticipated. Warmer on Sunday ahead of the clipper with highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Colder again on Monday with highs upper 40s NW PA to the upper 50s west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will be in place come Tuesday...but we will still be cool as we transition between the departing New England trough and brief low amplitude ridging. A fairly well agreed upon compact shortwave and its associated surface low is progged to track west-east across the central Plains and across the Great Lakes between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. Will maintain the chance of showers we had going in the forecast centered on Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures through the long term will remain at or below normal. The coolest day of the week appears to be Tuesday...thereafter we begin to slowly moderate. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Widespread low MVFR and IFR across the terminals for the remainder of the night and into Friday morning. Improvement will be slow and will take place first at TOL/FDY. Most places will remain non-VFR through 06Z SAT. Rain showers will linger for a good portion of the day today across eastern OH/nw PA. Northerly winds will gust upwards of 25 to 30 knots through evening. OUTLOOK...Northeast OH/northwest PA will have Non VFR possible through Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Extended period of small craft advisory conditions will continue for the lake through at least Sunday morning. Western extent may be able to be trimmed early...but we will see. Stiff north winds will back to the northwest tonight and remain elevated through the weekend. Winds will come around to the southwest Sunday afternoon as high pressure passes south of the lake...but this will be short lived as the next cold front crosses the lake Sunday night. Therefore small craft advisory conditions may very well continue through Monday for the central and eastern portions of the lake. High pressure Tuesday finally calms the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.