Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250812 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 312 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE 1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR HIGHS. COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS. ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. WINDS EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE LAKES REGION.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149- 165>169. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>144-162>164. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144- 162>164.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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