Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 282341 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 741 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the region for the first part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Much of the instability across the region has been exhausted. So anything that remains into the evening will mainly be showers but an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible. Best chance to still see some evening thunder will be across NW OH and maybe across the southeastern County Warning Area (CWA) as an outflow boundary moves across that region. Otherwise have only made changes to hourly temperatures to account for the rain cooled air across the central and western CWA. previous discussion... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Deep moisture remains over the area but little in the way of forcing. Since most of the thunderstorms are diurnally driven they should begin to decrease in coverage this evening. With the approaching front and the weakening ridge, I will not completely rule out the chance of a few storms overnight but I will lower the probabilities into the slight chance category. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will move across the forecast area on Sunday. The models indicate the front should move through during the afternoon. The upper level dynamics with this front are fairly limited however deep moisture is in place. I expected the shower and thunderstorm activity to be more widespread Sunday afternoon. SPC has placed most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk outlook for Sunday. Model CAPE values may exceed 2000 but the lack of upper dynamics will limit the organization of the storms. Any severe thunderstorms will most likely be pulse storms with isolated downbursts and possible hail. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage. However, if any areas see extended sunshine, it is possible temperatures could reach the mid 80s again. A few scattered showers may linger Sunday evening but high pressure will slowly build back over the forecast area by Monday morning. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures should occur through the first part of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall upper level pattern shows a ridge of high pressure building east and then moving east of the area during this forecast period. This ridge should continue to help support subsidence and warm air advection into the local area. During the latter half of the forecast period, an upper level trough will approach the local area. The Gulf of Mexico will open up once again and force warm tropical air into the forecast area by Thursday and continue into Friday. A cold front will move east into the area and bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Latest models suggest a cooling trend will take place into the weekend behind the cold front as upper level troughiness and west to northwest flow occur. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Threat of thunderstorms diminishing with nightfall. VFR outside of showers. Morning BR possible for a couple/few hours as moisture levels have increased over yesterday. There is the chance for some showers with possible thunder to move across the area Sunday morning west through mid afternoon across the east. Best thunder chances would be across the east with this feature with the diurnally favored part of the day. Otherwise a cold front will be approaching from the west toward 00Z MON. Have PROB30 for TS for the western sites late in the TAF period. Winds outside of the convection will return to a light south breeze for tonight and Sunday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in SHRA/TS Sunday evening. Areas of MVFR possible Sunday night into Monday morning.
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&& .MARINE... The lake is expected to be relatively quiet through much of the period as surface flow remains rather stagnant. No major weather systems are expected through the next 5 days and not expecting any headlines for small craft advisories to be issued during this time frame. Otherwise, just looking at the potential for afternoon thunderstorms today and Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the area on Sunday. Fair weather returns for Monday through Tuesday and a good portion of Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garnet NEAR TERM...Garnet/Mullen SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Lombardy

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