Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 260543 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 143 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND CIGS 10K-12K FEET DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS...SO REPLACED WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF SPRINKLES. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FAIR PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL MODIFY OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NIGHT. WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE AND NOT FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NEAR LAKE ERIE. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A RATHER COMPLICATED STORMY FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 18C. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR( 0-1 KM) RISING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE SREF TORNADO INGREDIENTS PARAMETER INCREASES TO 30 OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA TOWARD 00 UTC SUN SO WE WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH WITH A LULL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS ELEVATED WITH AMPLE CAPE SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES. UPWARD MOTION IN THE COMBINATION WITH A WARM LAKE NEAR 23C AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR LOW TOPPED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE CANNOT SHAKE THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...SHOWERS CANNOT BE REALLY RULED OUT ANY POINT YET. SO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF CHANCE/SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE SUBTLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCING FEATURES CAN BE PICKED OUT...AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THOSE DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOSTLY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BY MID SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN THRU MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... A FINE EVENING ON THE LAKE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/COMPLEXES POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT/S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TIMING YET IS UNCERTAIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS ON THE LAKE VARIABLE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...BC MARINE...OUDEMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.