Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 310546 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DIURNAL CU HAVE FADED LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST. EARLIER DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS WE BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. OTHERWISE...AS COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE EAST A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH ON THE LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT BEST. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL. THREAT FOR MORE ACTIVITY ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AS REINFORCING MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NO STRONG WARM OR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. SEE NO REASON TO START FLIP FLOPPING THE FORECAST WITH SO MUCH DOUBT. SO WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RIDGED FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROGGED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SMALL BUT THE THREAT IS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS AS "VICINITY" AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE EAST WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT WILL END OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AGAIN AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE LAKES. IN FACT PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ALMOST LIKE A FALL PATTERN ON LAKE ERIE WITH...LARGE LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ012-089. PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...MAYERS SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...DJB/KOSARIK

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