Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 311454 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1054 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY...SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO MAINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND THE POP TRYING TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. DROPPED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE. ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION... THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP SE INTO WESTERN PA BY LATE TODAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE AS UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE FROM THE TROUGH DIGGING SSE TOWARD CVG. COULD START TO SEE SNOW START TO MIX IN OVER THE FAR NW AROUND 6 PM. INCREASING AND THICKENING OF THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SMALL TEMP INCREASES TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN A 46 TO 49 RANGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE UPPER LOW COULD INDUCE SOME THUNDER LATER TODAY BUT CONSENSUS IS NOT FOR MENTIONING THUNDER DUE TO SMALL CHANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE MODELS. STILL EXPECT TO PRECIP TO TAPER DOWN AS THE PRECIP STARTS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT WITH MAINLY WET ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AIR COLD ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL ONLY BE MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND MAYBE JUST THE LAST HOUR OR SO OF THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A FREEZING ISSUE FOR PAVED SURFACES. THE BEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AREA. RIGHT NOW BEST GUESS IS MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO IN PART OF THIS AREA WITH MAYBE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH SAT MORNING. FURTHER EAST...BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TONIGHT THEN TEMPS TRY AND HANG AROUND 40 DEGREES ON SAT SO THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO BE MOSTLY SNOW THUS CONTINUING TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION. WILL KEEP MOST PLACES WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION ON SAT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLING ESE OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT EVE. NOT SURE IF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE EXITING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LEAD TO DECENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ALOFT. WILL KEEP ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT SAT NIGHT TO AN INCH OR LESS. DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 25 IN THE WEST WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES. THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT HELPING TO KEEP ANY SNOW MELTING SO THE ROADS SHOULD NOT SEE A FREEZING ISSUE. MAYBE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SHOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS. DECENT WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT START UNTIL SUN NIGHT SO HIGHS SUN WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY UPPER 30S FAR EAST TO MID 40S FAR WEST. STILL CONCERNED THAT A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHRA MAY DEVELOP SE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHER PART OF THE CWA. WILL ADD MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC SHRA. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMP INCREASES ON MON WITH HIGHS ONLY ABLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S NE TO AROUND 55 FAR SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AHEAD OF IT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE STEADIER RAINS ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ERIE AREA FOR SHOWERS TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING AS CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE INCREASES. STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE LIKELY. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD BUT MAY REACH KCLE AND KMFD BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH 06Z ON SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY PLACED A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NW OHIO FOR THE LATE EVENING. SOME SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BY 12Z SATURDAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY THEN PERSISTING OVER NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTER SEEING GALE WIND SPEEDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANTICIPATING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW AS IT ARRIVES IN NORTHERN OHIO WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE A LOWER END GALE SINCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ALL THAT STRONG UNTIL AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SOME SIGNIFICANT WAVES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED LATER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY RUN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE LAKE INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/KOSARIK NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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