Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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492 FXUS61 KCLE 280604 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sag southward across the region this evening as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. The low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday allowing high pressure to build across the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Just some minor changes to the forecast overnight. The precip is just about gone and will leave a 20 pop in for another hour or two otherwise will just go with a dry forecast overnight. Northern areas are currently clear but still expect clouds to increase overnight. No changes to temps as we should be able to dry slightly in the northeast flow. Previous...Low pressure over nrn Indiana this afternoon with a weak cold front across far northwest OH. This low will drop SSE across OH overnight as the front moves south. By morning the from will be in southern OH with another developing surface wave moving northeast toward the Lower Ohio Valley along the boundary. The low will then move east to the Virginias by 00Z Saturday. Forcing is weak with the system initially however models continue to show an upper short wave moving through the western lakes tonight and becoming a closed low Friday as it reaches the area. Convective development has been quite limited today with the focus remaining well south of the area in vicinity of a warm front where instability is greater. Following the HRRR will go with chance pops for a few showers/thunderstorms mainly south/southwest mainly this evening. For Friday will bring high chance and likely pops back into the south and southeast portion of the area where moisture is best as better forcing descends into the area with the upper low. Friday night the system and associated moisture will pull out as drier air and high pressure build in from the northwest. Temps Friday a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Showers should be SE of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday as upper level trough slides SE. At the surface large Canadian high will become the dominant weather feature through the remainder of the weekend. Saturday will be cooler and drier with highs only in the 70s. Little change for the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes. Expect dry conditions with slightly below normal temps and copious amounts of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... In general surface high pressure will be in place to start. A cold front will be dropping down from the upper Midwest for the second half of the week, although there are differences in timing that wave over the top of the western U.S. ridge. Will bring the mention of showers/thunderstorms into the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonable each day. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Cold front has stalled near a line from south central NY to around KFDY. MVFR and some IFR conditions have developed near and south of the boundary. Northeast flow off of Lake Erie will help to keep moisture levels up through the day as an upper level trough approaches. Lift with this feature will generate some showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon but the coverage is uncertain. The best chances of the showers/thunderstorms will be near and southeast of a line from KGJK to KI43. So for now only have a mention in the KYNG TAF. Any remaining MVFR ceilings should lift late evening as the showers move into PA. Some of this cloud cover will likely redevelop over NE OH and NW PA as some cooler air flows across Lake Erie. Northeast winds will likely increase through the day as the upper level trough passes. So expect to see winds in the 10 to 20 knot range with some gust up to 25 knots possible. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Friday night and could persist into Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... The cold front across SE Lower Michigan will move across Lake Erie tonight. Choppy conditions develop on the lake tonight as winds turn to the NE and increase to 10 to 15 knots behind The front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed tomorrow as NE winds increase to 15 to 25 knots. Small Craft will likely continue into Sunday when the winds begin to diminish as high builds in. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...DJB

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