Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 012339 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 639 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR. DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...TK MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY

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