Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010111 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 911 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TO THE SW...EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER TO OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS FIGHT TO GET PUSHED DOWN MUCH AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE LESS CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE. THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL HELP LOWS TO DIP INTO A RANGE FROM 24 TO 29 EAST TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE DAY FOR A HIGH. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THE WARM AIR UP TO THE LAKE SHORE AS WELL. EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO FRIDAY AND THEN EAST OF OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SO...NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP. A FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT BY TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER AT KERI IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT IT WOULD BE LIGHT AND PROBABLY SHORT LIVED AND LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. INCREASING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW RETURNING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP THIS WEEK AND CONTINUED DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED ON THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA

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