Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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742 FXUS61 KCLE 260130 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 930 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over eastern OH will move off to the ne thru Fri to allow a weak ridge of high pressure to push across the region Friday then weaken Saturday. Low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes Sunday and hang around the eastern part of the lakes through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Little change in the overall pattern the last few hours as band of showers continues to rotate slowly east. Will keep a chance of showers all areas with the least being in the west and greatest in the central portions of the forecast area where the band persists. Surface low pressure appears to be developing along the DELMARVA coast at this time with another center of circulation over western Pennsylvania. The coastal low pressure system will gradually take over during the night. This should help pull some of the precipitation away from the area. As mentioned earlier, temperatures are not moving much through the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As energy from the upper low continues to shift off to the east the lingering rain in the east should taper off Fri to provide a brief period of dry conditions going into early Fri night. The models continue to differ on how well convection from a developing system to the west will hold together and spread across the cwa Fri night into Sat morning. Will raise forecast pops more but not to MAV guidance levels. As the next upper low digs se into the lakes Sat night and Sun, it will provide forcing for the next round of shra and possible tsra to spread ene across the cwa Sat night and Sun. The threat for flooding will continue to slowly increase as rounds of rain occur. Temps should be near normal Sat and Sun but cloud coverage should be considerable making it feel cooler. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Series of short waves progged to rotate through the deepening trough the first half of next week. It may be difficult to pin down specific details very far in advance. The cold front should be east of the area Monday and I suspect there may be enough subsidence to keep new shower development in check. Will have a small chance (20- 35 pop) for showers. The next short wave and surface trough/front should rotate across the area on Tuesday. Weak high pressure is progged to build across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday but with the trough aloft, will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. High pressure should be more established by Thursday. Temperatures should drop through the first half of the week as weak cold advection persists. 850 mb temperatures will start out about +10C Monday and be down to about +5C by Wednesday. Forecast temperatures will be near normal Monday then below normal Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR/MVFR conditions across nrn OH and nwrn PA this evening with low pressure exiting the area to the east. Light rain continues to fall across the central counties this evening and should rotate southeast and out of the area through the overnight. Expect conditions to drop to MVFR/IFR overnight then lift eventually to VFR Friday from west to east as drier air and high pressure build in. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend. && .MARINE... Low pressure will slowly move east of Lake Erie tonight and winds will come around from the west northwest tonight, then back to the southwest on Friday. The lake will get a bit choppy on the east half but will likely remain below small craft advisory criteria on Friday. Weak low pressure will cross the lower Great Lakes on Saturday with rather light winds but the direction will back around the dial. A stronger cold front will cross the lake on Sunday and mariners will have to watch for stronger thunderstorms. Winds should come around from the west southwest behind the front Sunday night into Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...TK MARINE...Kosarik

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