Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191745 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to move east of the area today allowing a ridge of high pressure to build northeast into the local area through Monday. The center of the high pressure will move east and off the Virginia coast by Monday evening. A cold front will move east across the local area Tuesday night while another high pressure builds east across the area Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Afternoon update...Snow showers developing nicely across northeast Ohio into nwrn PA early this afternoon. First update had minor changes but for the second update did put likely pops for snow showers into eastern Cuyahoga and northern Portage counties. Original discussion... Low pressure moved east of the area and continues to cause gusty winds mainly across the lakeshore counties from Lorain County east. Gusty winds over the lake will affect the lakeshore areas and therefore will keep the wind advisory going across that area. Winds have diminished enough inland and in the northwest to go ahead and drop the wind advisory. Next problem of the day will be the threat for lake effect precipitation. All areas have the potential to be affected by either lake effect rain showers and/or snow showers. Albeit, much less of a chance in the west. Cold air advection will take place especially this afternoon into tonight as colder air infiltrates the area. Moisture across the area begins to deepen overnight along with increasing upward vertical motion. Dendritic snow growth potential with temperatures between -12 and -19 C expected to lower into area of ideal moisture across the northeast portion of the forecast area. Lake induced instability increases from conditional to moderate and briefly extreme overnight tonight with wind fields supporting a uniform wind flow from the surface to around 10,000 feet. Inversion lifts later this evening as well. This should provide somewhat ideal conditions for a period of time overnight for lake effect snow/rain showers to develop. The problem is, areas near the lake could see rain/snow and a period of all snow while the higher elevations to the south will see rain transitioning to all snow this afternoon into the evening. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected across southern Erie County Pennsylvania and a sliver of the northern portions of Crawford County. So will go ahead and issue the first lake effect snow headline of the season for southern Erie County Pennsylvania. Can`t rule out 5 inches in a few places in eastern Ashtabula and northern Crawford but should be limited in areal coverage at this time. The rest of the area will see a slight chance of rain showers/snow showers through the day today. Some clearing will try to work its way into the local area from the west tonight. However, due to the lake effect, skies will remain cloudy over the northeast tonight into Monday. Flow will slowly shift to a more southwest direction during the day Monday and this will gradually shift the snow band up and over the lake ending the threat of snow shortly after mid day. Warm air advection will begin to take place once again Monday afternoon as surface high pressure slides by the area to the south and bringing a return southwest flow to the area. This cold spell will be short lived through Monday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SSW winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. There are some uncertainties with the Tuesday forecast. First, how warm can it get? 850 mb temps warm nicely with the south flow. We could potentially get into the lower and mid 50s but will be a bit conservative with the forecast since the high and mid clouds will increase and there could be virga at some point. I doubt any precip will reach the ground. I suppose that by the end of the day a shower could occur along the east lakeshore and the snowbelt but will keep the Tuesday forecast dry. Some lake enhanced/lake effect rain and snow showers will likely occur across the snow belt Tuesday night into Wednesday but the inversion is progged to lower and high pressure will be building in so not expecting any snow of any consequence. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A decent short wave is progged to cross the northern lakes on Thursday and warm advection will occur but not expecting any precipitation, perhaps patchy mid and high clouds. Not a bad Thanksgiving but it will probably not warm up all that much on Thursday. Highs mostly upper 30s/around 40. The ECMWF tries to sag a back door cold front to near Lake Erie by Friday morning. The other models are not as aggressive and wait to bring the next front across the area early Saturday with a secondary cold front soon after. Will go with the idea of a cold front sometime on Saturday but moisture will likely be limited with the actual frontal passage. There will be some lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday as a chunk of arctic air drops across the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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Will begin with MVFR east and VFR west. High pressure will build in from the west along with drier air this afternoon and overnight. Lake effect however will dominate northeast OH and nwrn PA this afternoon into this evening. Will continue with MVFR conditions there while improving elsewhere through the period. Monday mainly VFR except for nwrn PA at least early. OUTLOOK...A brief period of Non-VFR possible Tuesday night all areas and through Wednesday night in the northeast snowbelt.
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&& .MARINE... Have dropped gales on the entire lake as winds have dropped to 30 knots. original discussion... Northwest gales on Lake Erie will begin to diminish today but only very slowly. Will continue with the gale warning on the western basin through 9 AM and on the central and eastern basin through 4 PM. The flow will back to the southwest on Monday as high pressure move east of Lake Erie. The southwest flow will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Small craft advisories may be needed on Tuesday, at least from around the Islands and eastward as southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots. The cold front is expected late in the day Tuesday and winds will veer back to the northwest behind the front. A small craft advisory will likely be needed until sometime Wednesday as high pressure builds across the lake. The flow will become southwest again on Thursday but wind speeds will remain relatively light for Thanksgiving. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...TK MARINE...DJB

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