Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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148 FXUS61 KCLE 301308 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 908 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will slowly move east across Ohio over the weekend along a stalled frontal boundary. The low will depart to the east on Monday with high pressure building overhead for the first half of next week. A warming trend will get underway by mid-week as the upper level ridge builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A few minor adjustments to account for short term trends in the precipitation. Temperatures appear to be on track. Previous Discussion... Broad upper level trough that has been located upstream of the region will shift eastward today. Meanwhile the area of surface low pressure starting off this morning across Indiana will shift into Ohio and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Numerous showers and thunderstorms early this morning along the northeast lakeshore and into Pennsylvania have brought over an inch of rain to many areas based on radar estimates. Still some uncertainty on how exactly convection will unfold today. A fairly pronounced dry-slot has spread over the area with activity firing to the north in Michigan. The parallel HRRR is handling this activity pretty well and shows it expanding into northwest Ohio. The lack of mid-level cloud beneath the dry-slot should enable better daytime heating and an increase in instability. ML Cape values should reach or exceed 1500 J/kg and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern Ohio. Convection will fill in to the north of the low where there is an area of convergence from the surface to 850mb. Expect this boundary to be a row of counties or more south of the lakeshore and tried to focus highest pops in that area. Storms will only be moving at 10-15 mph and heavy rain will be possible. Some locations received 2 inches or more of rain yesterday and will need to be monitored today for localized flooding. QPF will range from little or none in some areas to 2+ inches in others. Temperatures will be warmer in the west where breaks are more likely in the clouds with highs in the lower 80s, tapering to the upper 70s in northwest Pennsylvania.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Diurnal trend expected with the convection decreasing in coverage through the evening. With that said, will hold onto at least a chance of thunderstorms for all areas given the moist airmass and trough overhead. Scattered thunderstorms will develop again on Sunday but better coverage should be in the east where better moisture remains. Upper level trough axis shifts east of the area by Monday with the airmass drying out as surface high pressure expands overhead. Dewpoints will drop back into the lower 60s on Monday and near 60 on Tuesday resulting in lower humidity. Temperatures will gradually warm with mostly sunny skies and a ridge building aloft. Highs will be back into the mid 80s by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level ridge is progged to move east toward the forecast area Wednesday through Friday. This will surely send another surge of warm air back to the forecast area. Albeit temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm as we saw with the last round of hot weather but it will climb up into the upper 80s. As the upper level ridge builds east, the models are hinting at a possible potent little positive vorticity maximum that is expected to move southeast over the top of the ridge and affect the western portions of the forecast area. This feature is progged to have a bit of deep moisture associated with it and may bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Will add a mention of at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the area Wednesday. High pressure will then become the dominant weather feature until Friday morning when a cold front is progged to move east toward the area. The timing of the cold front pegs it on arrival in the forecast area in the late afternoon. I suspect with this timing there is the potential for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening with the cold front. Otherwise, warmth continues through the forecast period as return southerly flow develops ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Once again, really tough forecast to deal with today as low pressure moves northeast through the area. Scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the lake and over the lake and over eastern portions of the forecast area. Expecting more activity to develop later this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves east into the region and supports the convective activity. Low clouds and visibilities at this time should improve this morning and expecting more low clouds and visibilities tonight as moisture lingers across the area. Winds generally light and variable. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning. && .MARINE... After a 10 to 15 knot wind today from the northeast on the lake, winds diminish to light and variable through the rest of the forecast period. Conditions for will be ideal for recreational boaters during this time period. Scattered thunderstorms could be a threat on the lake today through Sunday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...Garnet SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Lombardy

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