Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240129 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 929 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS. CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS. PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN. ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY. MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...MAYERS

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