Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261726 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 126 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken today and tonight. This will allow a cold front to move through the area Wednesday spreading a cooler, more seasonable air mass across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Have made lot`s of minor adjustments to temps. Readings across the central portion of the area were running a degree or two Celsius cooler than Monday. In the west they were about the same and in the east they were warmer. Went ahead and took NW PA to near 90 even at ERI. Highs at CLE should be a tad cooler than Monday and elsewhere have nudged temps a degree or two in either direction given the 14z readings. Have also removed most of the clouds from the forecast for the next several hours. Still expect some cumulus later this afternoon. Previous...The strong upper ridge over the region will weaken tonight into Wednesday as will the associated surface system. This will allow a cold front across the nations midsection to move east across the region Wednesday. Today will be very similar to the previous several days with highs around 90 and plenty of sun. Some question as to the chance of rain/thunder on Wednesday with the MET guidance largely slight chance or below while the MAV shows a chance pop east, likely for the afternoon based on frontal timing, and a sight chance west. With the surface low far north into Canada feel the bulk of the precip will be outside of the area. Still with dewpoints in the 60s its hard not to buy into low chance pops east in the afternoon. Highs Wednesday still above normal but mainly in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A more seasonable pattern is expected during the second half of the work week. Brief high pressure will nudge into the region Wednesday night through Thursday night, providing mostly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday are only expected to reach the mid/upper 70s across the region. After lows in the 50s Wednesday night, lows are expected to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area Thursday night. A fairly potent shortwave will drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. This may bring a few showers to portions of the area. There has been two noticeable trends with the 00Z suite of guidance. The first of which is a slightly weaker/more sheared shortwave moving through the area compared to previous forecast runs, and second a slightly northward shift in the best forcing and surface reflection. The 00Z ECMWF and GEM are actually showing very little precip south and west of a Toledo to Canton line. However, chances are looking fairly good for precip across extreme NE OH and NW PA, especially with an added lake contribution and decent low/mid level lapse rates with the coldest air aloft tracking over this region. Went ahead with likely pops and a slight chance of thunder Friday afternoon, with up to 500 j/kg of lake induced MUCAPE, with a fairly sharp pop gradient to the south and west. Lingering precip chances will end through the overnight as much drier air and high pressure filters into the region. Highs on Friday will remain in the mid/upper 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet long term period expected as high pressure builds across the region this weekend. After a cool day on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 60s, and lows Saturday night in the low/mid 40s, possibly even upper 30s in favored cool spots around the area, a warming trend will take place across the area Sunday and Monday. Upper ridge amplification across the eastern CONUS in response to significant longwave troughing across the intermountain west will allow for return flow setup with surface high centered east of the area, and continuous WAA into the region through even the middle part of next week. Highs by Monday will return to the low to mid 70s, a couple of degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Quiet weather will continue. Just a few cumulus expected this afternoon with mainly clear skies tonight. Some mid level clouds will move over NW OH toward daybreak as a front approaches the area. The front should be close to exiting the area by the end of the TAF period. Onshore flow will continue at ERI and CLE this afternoon with light SW flow most other places. Winds will become W then NW behind the front tomorrow. No precip mention needed. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and again on Friday in sct shra with a small chance of tsra.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions expected on the lake today and tonight with high pressure overhead, as winds will be light and variable. A cold front will push across the lake on Wednesday, with winds increasing out of the northwest during the day, turning northerly 10-15 kts by Wednesday night, with a very low end chance for small craft conditions. Winds will subside to 10 kts or less Thursday as high pressure build across the region. A stronger front will cross the lake on Friday with winds increasing out of the northwest, then north 15-20 kts by Friday night, with a better shot a small craft conditions. High pressure builds back across the lake Saturday with winds subsiding and remaining 10 kts or less Saturday night through Monday. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming records for Today 9/26: TOL 92/1998 CAK 89/1900 MFD 87/1998 CLE 91/1998 ERI 89/1998 YNG 89/1934 && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Greenawalt CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.