Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191142 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TROUGH NEAR A MEADVILLE PA TO MFD LINE. NORTH OF THAT PRECIP HAS EITHER ENDED OR CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. SO ENDED ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THAT LINE. ORIGINALS DISCUSSION... REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KNOX COUNTY SO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY WEST TO AN ERIE COUNTY TO KNOX COUNTY LINE. THE TROUGH IS JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE SHORELINE AND PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK THE TROUGH WILL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 6 AM SO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH...BUT THING SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN TODAY. SO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET WITH TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS WEEKEND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TREND FOR BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE INTO IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT RAIN. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM. ALL ADVERTISE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT HAD A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE...THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A SECONDARY LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THAT TIME IT WILL BE ALSO STARTING TO DRY OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT THE MODELS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE ON A SOLUTION BUT TILL THEN THINGS REMAIN UP IN THE AIR. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE 06Z WITH IFR CIGS IN THE SE AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EAST. THINK THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ABOUT DONE. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL TRY TO IMPROVE CIGS TO MVFR ALL AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING IT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IF ANY CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL LIFT THE WESTERN COUPLE OF TAFS TO VFR AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL KEEP THINGS MVFR IN THE EAST. W TO NW FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
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&& .MARINE... AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL TAKE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND INCREASING SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ022- 023-029>033-038-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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