Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCLE 222027 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 327 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...SO WILL START THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT THICKEST CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHT. WENT LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A DOWN SLOPE FLOW.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS. TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO REMOVED DROPPED POPS FOR TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS BOTH FASTER AND COLDER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE NAM FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE NOT CLEAR BUT THE MODELS HAVE SOME OF THE SAME IDEAS...IT WILL BE COLDER WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRACKS IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF THE OTHER MODELS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS OHIO. KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION RAIN ON THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TRIES TO WARM ON THE ECMWF...NONE THE LESS THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NOT THAT MUCH...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE OUT OF CONTROL...OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE...FOLLOWING THAT TREND WITH 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STARTER. THE GRIDDED MOS AND HPC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...FOLLOWED THAT.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF. SOME CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHWEST OHIO FROM LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME WIND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...MAINLY AREAS OF MVFR BR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT TIMES. && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NO HEADLINES ON THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME WIND MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND WE HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
