Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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575 FXUS61 KCLE 300738 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 338 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO 63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... REGION IN THE GAP BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. STILL SOME VFR STRATUS IN NW OH AND MVFR STRATUS IN NW PA/EASTERN OHIO. THESE MAY EXPAND INTO TOL/FDY/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LATE CLEARING...MAY GET BR/FG TO DEVELOP FOR MFD/CAK. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR TO START WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR FOR THE EVENING WITH RAIN. THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MODELS STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW OUT OF MISSOURI ACROSS OHIO. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE NOT ONLY WIND DIRECTION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ALSO WHETHER THE NON VFR CEILINGS CAN LIFT. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS LESS.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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