Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 181100 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 700 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE. NO OTHER CHANGES. ORIGINAL... WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR 50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO 5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE. SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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