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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
492
FXUS61 KCLE 280604
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag southward across the region this evening as
low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. The
low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday allowing
high pressure to build across the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Just some minor changes to the forecast overnight. The precip is
just about gone and will leave a 20 pop in for another hour or
two otherwise will just go with a dry forecast overnight.
Northern areas are currently clear but still expect clouds to
increase overnight. No changes to temps as we should be able to
dry slightly in the northeast flow.

Previous...Low pressure over nrn Indiana this afternoon with a
weak cold front across far northwest OH. This low will drop SSE
across OH overnight as the front moves south. By morning the
from will be in southern OH with another developing surface wave
moving northeast toward the Lower Ohio Valley along the
boundary. The low will then move east to the Virginias by 00Z
Saturday. Forcing is weak with the system initially however
models continue to show an upper short wave moving through the
western lakes tonight and becoming a closed low Friday as it
reaches the area. Convective development has been quite limited
today with the focus remaining well south of the area in
vicinity of a warm front where instability is greater. Following
the HRRR will go with chance pops for a few
showers/thunderstorms mainly south/southwest mainly this
evening. For Friday will bring high chance and likely pops back
into the south and southeast portion of the area where moisture
is best as better forcing descends into the area with the upper
low. Friday night the system and associated moisture will pull
out as drier air and high pressure build in from the northwest.
Temps Friday a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers should be SE of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday
as upper level trough slides SE. At the surface large Canadian
high will become the dominant weather feature through the
remainder of the weekend. Saturday will be cooler and drier with
highs only in the 70s. Little change for the remainder of the
forecast period with high pressure anchored over the Great
Lakes. Expect dry conditions with slightly below normal temps
and copious amounts of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In general surface high pressure will be in place to start. A cold
front will be dropping down from the upper Midwest for the second
half of the week, although there are differences in timing that wave
over the top of the western U.S. ridge. Will bring the mention of
showers/thunderstorms into the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures
will be seasonable each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has stalled near a line from south central NY to
around KFDY. MVFR and some IFR conditions have developed near
and south of the boundary. Northeast flow off of Lake Erie will
help to keep moisture levels up through the day as an upper
level trough approaches. Lift with this feature will generate
some showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon but the
coverage is uncertain. The best chances of the
showers/thunderstorms will be near and southeast of a line from
KGJK to KI43. So for now only have a mention in the KYNG TAF.
Any remaining MVFR ceilings should lift late evening as the
showers move into PA. Some of this cloud cover will likely
redevelop over NE OH and NW PA as some cooler air flows across
Lake Erie.

Northeast winds will likely increase through the day as the
upper level trough passes. So expect to see winds in the 10 to
20 knot range with some gust up to 25 knots possible.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Friday night and could
persist into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front across SE Lower Michigan will move across Lake Erie
tonight.  Choppy conditions develop on the lake tonight as winds
turn to the NE and increase to 10 to 15 knots behind The front.  A
Small Craft Advisory will be needed tomorrow as NE winds increase to
15 to 25 knots.   Small Craft will likely continue into Sunday when
the winds begin to diminish as high builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB