Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010550 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 150 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE THE MLCAPE IS NEAR 500 J/KG. ISOLD CONVECTION FARTHER WEST ALONG I-80 CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE TO PROGRESS EAST BUT WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER OVER LAND NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TOL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP READINGS WARMER TONIGHT. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH FALL TYPE PATTERN SET UP OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS CONVECTION. WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AS A BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE MAY BE ON AND THE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE 12ZS ECMWF BRINGS THE SOUTH FLOW RIGHT BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND PUTS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG GIVEN THE RATHER FLAT LOOK OF THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...A LARGE ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION AND OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS THERE WILL PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LIKELY END UP IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TUESDAY ON. WE WILL END UP NEEDING "LIKELY" POPS FOR SOME FORECAST PERIODS BUT NOT SURE WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE YET. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CREEPING ABOVE NORMAL SINCE DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A BKN MID CLOUD DECK IS OVERHEAD TO START THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CU FIELD NEAR 5K FEET WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AT TOL/FDY BETWEEN 23-02Z AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY EXCEPT AT CLE/ERI WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... THE SOUTHWEST WIND HAS BEEN A BIT BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ERIE TODAY BUT THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALMOST OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL SIDES OF THE LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL TURN THE WIND FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND THE NORTH FLOW COULD LINGER ON SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KOSARIK

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