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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 282030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES TOMORROW LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA.  A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET.  GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS
MORNING.  IN FACT LOW TEMP WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.  BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 2-4C.   FOR THE MOST PART
BELIEVE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DO
LEAVE CHANCE POPS NW OHIO FOR LATE TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING. NO PRECIP OUT THERE YET...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TAPS INTO GULF
MOISTURE. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING PRECIP INTO
NW OHIO TOWARD 12Z...REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS CAN
RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES. RIGHT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OUT RUN THE SURFACE TEMPS AND
THAT PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THINKING THAT
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING SO WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. DID NOT INCLUDE EASTERN COUNTIES IN
ADVISORY AS THINK THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP REACHES THERE TOWARD
NOON...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW AND THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT.
MODELS MOVE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING
WHICH WOULD MEAN ALL PRECIP AFTER 00Z WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
COULD GET 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND SNOWBELT TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOW WILL KICK IN FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
DIP TO -18C.  ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER
THAT. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW PA.

LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT UNCHANGED AS DOUBTS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT.  12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE GFS MOVES THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A RATHER COLD DEEP WINTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS SPOKES FROM THE UPPER EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX PIVOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS PRODUCE A WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO A LIGHT EVENT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH AN REINFORCING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH
MELTING TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE COOLER THAN OTHERWISE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MORE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING AND PERHAPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z THE LOW WILL BE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO START
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST AS VFR THROUGH THE DAY
AND MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 11Z AT KTOL/KFDY AND TO KCLE BY 14Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY EVENING IN MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
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THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ICE FLOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS
WILL FLIP FROM THE SOUTH...PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. WIND
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...THEN FLIP
FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LAPLANTE