Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 262354 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 754 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening. The warm front should clear Lake Erie early Sunday morning. As low pressure tracks across Ontario on Sunday it will drag a weak cold front across the region. This boundary is then expected to stall over southern Ohio on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Frontal boundary still remains very close to the area and it is expected to make a run back north toward the area during the day tomorrow as high pressure moves east of the area overnight. Some showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across southwest Ohio and central Indiana. The latest HRRR model shows some of this activity lifting northeast into western Ohio overnight in the form of showers. However, surface dewpoints are expected to lower slightly overnight keeping the air over the area on the drier side. So, will continue with current dry forecast and not introduce any showers at this time. So, no major changes to forecast with this update. Previous discussion... Weak high pressure will control the weather across the region through the night. Less cloud cover and drier low levels of the atmosphere will allow for a cooler night. Most locations should dip into the lower to mid 60s. A few upper 50s may occur across inland NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Warm front will move back toward the region from the lower Ohio River Valley by Saturday evening. This will bring increasing moisture and instability toward NW OH. Still some uncertainty about how much convection will reach NW OH but believe it warrants a chance mention. The warm front will attempt to move north of Lake Erie early on Sunday but as low pressure tracks eastward across Ontario on Sunday it will push another weak cold front toward the region. At this point in time it appears that the thunderstorms will be scattered in coverage, 30-50 pops. The cold front may not clear the southern County Warning Area until late Monday afternoon. So will linger some chance pops across the south. Saturday into Sunday should be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s. A few locations may touch 90. Cooler on Monday as the drier air slowly returns. Highs Monday will dip to mid 80s across the north. However the front will take its time crossing southern areas with highs remaining in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will be hot and humid...with a large flat ridge over most of the CONUS. Removed mention of any chance of afternoon convection as 700MB temp of 8c will be too capped. Models continue with a weak surface front moving across the area on Wednesday...so dry that just left very low chance pops with the front. After this change shaping up in the long term. Instead of maintaining flat ridge over the area...models now dig trough across NERN states Thursday...ushering in cooler and drier conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Patches of high clouds and some mid clouds will spread across the forecast area from southwest to northeast tonight into Saturday as the stalled front over the Ohio Valley slowly begins to drift north on Saturday. Cannot rule out a shower or brief thunderstorm Saturday morning across northwest Ohio but the odds are too low to mention in the forecast. Fog/Mist Saturday morning only in the traditional foggy spots and will not mention in the TAF forecasts. Somewhat better chance Saturday afternoon for a shower or thunderstorm across northwest Ohio but the probability in any location remains only 20-30 percent and will not include it in the TAF forecast at this time. Light winds becoming southeast. Lake breeze wind shifts likely at KERI and KCLE Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday in -SHRA/-TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide east and move off the New England coast late Sunday...allowing a weak front to push across the lake Sunday night. Some choppy conditions Monday with a NE flow around 10 knots...but will remain below small craft advisory criteria. Conditions quickly improve Monday as high pressure builds over the lake and remains through mid week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...DJB

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