Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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757 FXUS61 KCLE 110211 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 911 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME. MULTIBAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT WITH WNW FLOW VEERING TO NW. AS FLOW VEERS MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND AROUND CUYAHOGA AND GEAUGA COUNTIES SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND AND BREAK DOWN THEN WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF BAND FROM LAKE HURON EXTENDING DOWN INTO NW PA. BEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF GEAUGA AND INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA. WITH MULTIBAND LES...INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO TIME AND WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MORE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONCLUDES BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AND FLOWS BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ANY BANDS TO MIGRATE UP THE COAST. THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS STILL SO COLD THAT EVEN WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY OFFSHORE WHICH COULD SAG INTO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND DROP THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE TO FRIGID READINGS OF -24 TO -27C WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS REGION AND LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BARELY BUDGE WITH THIS INTENSE COOLING ALOFT. EXPECT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE HURON TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND SOUTH AND SLICE ACROSS I-90 OVER ASHTABULA AND EXTREME WESTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BAND WILL THEN GRADUALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE QUITE NARROW BUT INTENSE. ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT FRIGID QUIET CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BR WRAPPING UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WE WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF COMING OUT OF THE DEEP COLD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMALS BY MONDAY. A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE DETAILS. FOR NOW WE KEEP THE GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP GENERIC 30-50 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THOUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 04Z. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY FROM 6 MILES OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT ERI WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THEN INCREASE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR ALTHOUGH IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TOL/FDY/MFD AFTER 05Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20+ KNOTS AT TOL/FDY/CLE THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AT ERI. OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN PUSHING 30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A WIDE OPEN LAKE IN THE LOWER 30S. NOMOGRAMS SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SPRAY TONIGHT...JUST SHY OF THE EXTREME THAT IS NEEDED FOR A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS IS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE GET MARGINAL GALES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WIND. BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WINDS CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT THIS POINT THE LAKE IS PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011- 012-089. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013- 014. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002- 003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/ADAMS SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...KEC MARINE...OUDEMAN

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