Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241740 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE ALREADY OUT. FINE TUNED THE SKY FORECAST OTHERWISE NO CHANGE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN NRN OHIO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NW OHIO. A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME 2500 FOOT CEILINGS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...KOSARIK

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