Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011938 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 338 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THEN MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST EAST OF MANSFIELD...HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AND FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. WHILE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AN INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY AREA. LOWS ARE TOUGH DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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DRY THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL TRY TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME GOING WITH A FROPA AT TOL AT 19Z/3PM...00Z 7 PM AT CLE AND 03Z/11 PM AT ERI. ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. IN SOME WAYS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER WILL BE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER...THE THUNDER MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...SOME LOCATIONS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN...MOST WILL BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY NOT EXCEPTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING ISSUES. PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGHS BUT DID GO WITH WARMER VALUES IN THE EAST BECAUSE IT WILL REMAIN DRIER LONGER. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FROST IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE...MAINLY INLAND OF THE LAKE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON THEN WHETHER THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TUE THRU WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SHRA AND COOL TEMPS SUN WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHRA SUN NIGHT THRU MON. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR TUE AND WED. WILL STAY WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR MAINLY THE NE ON TUE THEN BACK TO SLIGHT CHC FOR WED. TEMPS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN BY WED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES OF 10 DEG C AT 850 MB.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT REST OF AFTERNOON. SOME CU OR STRATO CU MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT BASED ON MODEL RH LEVELS. THIS MAY DELAY THE FOG THERE SOME...OTHERWISE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH IFR HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE INLAND SITES. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14 TO 15Z THU MORNING LEAVING MAINLY JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...
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WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING...NE TO E WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO SOUTH THEN START INCREASING THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EVENTUALLY A SCA WILL BE NEEDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER FRI WILL TURN THE WINDS TO WSW AND SPEEDS UP TO 30 KNOTS LOOK REASONABLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE LATER SAT BUT MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SCA WAVES GOING THRU SUN. A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE LAKES AROUND MON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

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