Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280200 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1000 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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BAND OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MOISTURE NEAR 4500 FEET AND EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS NW OHIO LATER TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS NW PA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BETTER IN THE EAST. RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN CENTRAL/NW OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CLOUDS/FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE LAKE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S. WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS. BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY. BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT. THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. && .MARINE... THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND. OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3 FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...TK MARINE...MAYERS

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