Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242339 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 739 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region through Saturday. A cold front will reach northwest Ohio by late Sunday and move east of the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... No changes for the 630 update. original discussion... High pressure and a dry stable airmass across the region will continue overnight. Will have clear skies in the forecast with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be over the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and should drift east to New England by evening. Our next weather maker will come on Sunday as a warm front moves into northwest Ohio. The warm front will be quickly followed within a few hours by a weak cold front. Models show plenty of moisture moving in with the system along with model capes around 2000j/kg and li`s of -6 or so for the afternoon west half. Will have a chance pop for Lucas county during the morning Sunday. For the afternoon will have chance pops as far east as a Marion to Norwalk line and likely pops far west. Sunday evening will move the likely pops to the remainder of the area and drop western pops back to chance. Monday morning will still need a chance pops southeast but will have a dry forecast elsewhere as drier air moves in from the northwest. Monday should be a few degrees cooler but with 850mb temps still +18c went above guidance with mid/upper 80s for highs. The real cold front will move into the northwest Monday evening with 850mb temps 10c lower Tuesday 12z vs Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The bulk of the cooler air arrives late Monday night/early Tuesday...taking away the heat of the previous days. Temperatures will run slightly below normal through Friday...mid 70s Tuesday inching warmer to near 80 by Friday...as the synoptic pattern holds with a trough across the eastern U.S. and the ridge across the west. While much of the time is dominate by high pressure across the lower Great Lakes...there still remains some question around the strength and track of shortwave energy that will move through the mean trough toward Friday. Will introduce a 20 percent chance of precipitation to acknowledge its presence...but confidence is low in its track and influence on the local weather. If indeed it does affect us...then temperatures too may be a couple of degrees cooler. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Clear skies and light winds are expected during the period. Lake breezes will end the next couple of hours but redevelop Saturday afternoon. Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected to return late Sunday or Sunday night. Non VFR possible across NE OH/NW PA on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will be in control of the weather through the majority of the weekend. The gradient slackens for tonight through Saturday. The high shifts east on Sunday and allows for southerly flow across the lake. Thunderstorms will likely accompany a front Sunday evening/night. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase for Tuesday when the push of cooler air finally takes place behind a secondary front. Tuesday may have a chance for a Small Craft Advisory. High pressure builds over the lake for Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...DJB/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Oudeman

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