Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 282030 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 330 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOMORROW LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING. IN FACT LOW TEMP WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 2-4C. FOR THE MOST PART BELIEVE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DO LEAVE CHANCE POPS NW OHIO FOR LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING. NO PRECIP OUT THERE YET...BUT EXPECT IT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING PRECIP INTO NW OHIO TOWARD 12Z...REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS CAN RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OUT RUN THE SURFACE TEMPS AND THAT PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THINKING THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING SO WILL RUN THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. DID NOT INCLUDE EASTERN COUNTIES IN ADVISORY AS THINK THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP REACHES THERE TOWARD NOON...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW AND THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT. MODELS MOVE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING WHICH WOULD MEAN ALL PRECIP AFTER 00Z WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. COULD GET 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND SNOWBELT TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOW WILL KICK IN FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO -18C. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER THAT. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT UNCHANGED AS DOUBTS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE GFS MOVES THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A RATHER COLD DEEP WINTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS SPOKES FROM THE UPPER EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE A WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO A LIGHT EVENT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN REINFORCING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH MELTING TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE COOLER THAN OTHERWISE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MORE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO START POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST AS VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 11Z AT KTOL/KFDY AND TO KCLE BY 14Z. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY EVENING IN MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. && .MARINE...
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THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ICE FLOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL FLIP FROM THE SOUTH...PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...THEN FLIP FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...LAPLANTE AVIATION...TK MARINE...LAPLANTE

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