Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 160535 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge builds briefly into the area tonight and early Saturday. A strong cold front tracks through the region late Saturday evening into early Saturday night. Colder airmass in place for the end of the weekend through around mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1:35 AM EDT Update... Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Previous discussion... Drier is air is attempting to push into the region, and seeing some of the cloud bases rise with modest boundary layer mixing, but the eastern half of the CWA is still dealing with low level cold air advection off Lake Erie. This will make the stratus significantly slower to erode in this area. Should clear out by late morning Saturday into the early afternoon hours with the surface ridge just to the southeast, shifting winds to a more southerly direction. This is all ahead of another cold front that will be dropping in from the northwest, associated with a closed upper level low tracking across northern Ontario. Expecting a line of showers with this cold front, no thunder, as it moves into the CWA after 21Z Saturday. It should be fairly quick, and will likely push through the southeastern zones by 06Z Sunday. This will usher in a significant change of airmass, and will mark the beginning of a chillier period of weather for the southern Great Lakes that will continue well into the short term forecast period. Ahead of that cold front, however, should have nice temperature recovery with some insolation and the aforementioned southerly flow, reaching the 55-60F range, slightly cooler right along the lakeshore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will take up residence across the Great Lakes through the short term period with a couple of pieces of jet energy rotating through the flow. This will keep chances of precipitation in the forecast with the greatest chances occur downwind of the lake across NE OH into NW PA on Monday. Temperatures gradually cool at 850mb through the short term period but only get down to -8 C to -11 C late Sunday through Monday night. So there will be a mixture of rain or snow through the period with a light accumulation possible across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night through Monday night. These light accumulations likely occur only during the dark hours. Highs in the 40`s on Sunday, dipping to the 30`s for Monday. Lows in the 20`s to around 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough remains in place over the region through the long term period. There is a significant spread in solutions on when the jet energy moves through the flow. The best chance of lake enhanced precipitation will be Tuesday into Tuesday night. It should end from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. There could be some light snow accumulations Tuesday night across NE OH into NW PA. It appears temperatures will moderate back up to seasonal levels by Wednesday. the warming trend then continues through Friday with highs into the 50`s. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night range from the 20`s to lower 30`s. Lows by Thursday night should be in the mid 30`s to around 40. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Primarily W`erly flow aloft persists through 06Z/Sun as a disturbance approaches from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge exits generally E`ward as a cold front approaches from the Upper MS Valley and vicinity. This front should begin to sweep E`ward into our region after 01Z/Sun and near KYNG, KCAK, and KRZT by 06Z/Sun. Our regional winds trend light and variable or calm through ~12Z/Sat. Thereafter, surface winds become SW`erly around 10-20 knots with gusts up to 20-30 knots, especially after ~15Z/Sat. Behind the cold front, our regional surface winds veer to WNW`erly and remain around 10-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Primarily VFR are expected ahead of and behind the front. However, pockets of low clouds and associated MVFR/IFR ceilings across northern OH and NW PA should exit generally NE`ward between ~10Z and ~15Z/Sat as mean low-level flow becomes SW`erly on the backside of the departing ridge at/near the surface. Pockets of mist with MVFR/IFR visibility are also possible through ~12Z/Sat. A roughly two to three-hour period of rain showers is expected along and just ahead of the cold front. Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow Sunday through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Ridge of high pressure moves across the lake tonight with lighter winds expected. Southwesterly winds increase on Saturday with the expectation that winds increase to 15 to 25 mph across the western half of the lake by the afternoon. So a small craft advisory is a strong possibility for about 6 hours from mid afternoon into the evening. A cold front cross the lake Saturday evening with westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots expected through Monday night. There is an increase in the winds on Monday to around 20 knots. The longer fetch may be enough to build waves from Cleveland to Ripley late Saturday night through Tuesday to warrant a small craft advisory. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26 SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...MM

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