Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 022348 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60. ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED. THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES. MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA

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