Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210539 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE... SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES. TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO NE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...KUBINA

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