Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281549 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS. OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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