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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241921
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND IMPACT AND HAVE GONE WITH FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING
WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO LESSEN. IF
SPEEDS STAY MORE THAN 5 OR 6 MPH OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO ACHIEVE. IF FREEZING TEMPS DO OCCUR IT WILL BE ONE OF THE
LATEST FREEZES EVER AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME
INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE SO HAVE TAKEN THE FROST HEADLINE ALL THE WAY TO KTOL AND
KFDY. LATEST HRRR HAS SURFACE TEMPS TO 34 DEGREES BY 04Z OVER MOST
OF INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. IF THAT OCCURS FROST IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FROST HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAY GET TO 70 ON
MONDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PUT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THINK DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE EAST TILL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN A LOOK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE TODAY SKIES SHOULD BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. IN THE WARM AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THE 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HPC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND THE CEILINGS ARE RISING AND WILL BE VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DARK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG
AT THE TAF SITES BUT SOME MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
VFR SATURDAY WITH SOME CIRRUS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END OF THE
LAKE AS THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE WAVES COULD BE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE IN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-036-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA