Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 170229 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 929 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track out of the Plains towards southern Lake Michigan by Tuesday morning lifting a warm front north across the area. The low will drift towards the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday evening with a weak cold front shifting east behind it. High pressure will build overhead Wednesday then shift to the east coast on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Rain has started from Toledo to Findlay and will continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours. Fog brought visibilities down to around half a mile at Toledo an hour or so ago, but with the start of the rain, visibilities have improved and will continue to do so. Generally light rain is expected with this first batch, but heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm will accompany the second batch, which is currently located across central Indiana. Chances for thunder will begin after midnight in the west and closer to 4 or 5 AM in the Cleveland area. Bumped PoPs up to near 100 across the western portion of the CWA for early tonight and eventually up to near 100 everywhere by late tonight into the morning rush. Most locations should receive between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, though locally higher amounts will be possible in any thunderstorms. Previous discussion... The nose of a 50 knot low level jet will begin to shift more towards Pittsburgh by Tuesday morning and better chances of convection may be focused across southern/central Ohio. The rain will move through fairly quickly on Tuesday as the dry-slot wraps into the system so not looking for a prolonged rain event like last week. Areas rivers will see rises from the additional rainfall but most are not expected to reach flood stage unless basin average qpf exceeds an inch. Some ponding of water possible in poor drainage areas, especially if rain comes down quickly. Temperatures will warm overnight and be in the 50s most areas on Tuesday. Record highs range from 58-60 degrees at MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG so several sites will be close.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will shift east across Lake Ontario Tuesday night with weak cold advection wrapping in behind the system. Temperatures will cool back into the 30s overnight with a lingering chance of light showers with the passage of one more shortwave. Precipitation will be mostly rain but may start to mix with snow late. High pressure builds overhead Wednesday but expect ample low level moisture to remain. Kept skies mostly cloudy with partial clearing developing during the evening but may end up taking until Thursday. Warming trend resumes on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A very warm but wet period setting up for the extended period. Models continue to move a low pressure system across the area Friday then exiting the area Friday night. Models have been consistent with this feature so will bump pops up to likely. Models differ on the timing somewhat...so may see a few lingering showers in the extreme east Saturday morning. But by afternoon everyone should be high and dry with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range. More rain on tap late Sunday through Monday as upper level low develops and drifts slowly across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue to spread across the region through the evening. This will be slowed slightly where the better downsloping winds around KERI. We will then monitor an area of rain that will spread southwest to northeast across the region. All locations will become IFR with the rain. We will need to monitor some stronger winds around 2000 feet at 40 knots around 12z. Later shifts will need to monitor this and determine if we will need some low level wind shear in the TAF`s. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday and Tuesday night in -ra. May mix with or change to a little snow Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Light Southeast flow will turn to the south early Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the lake. Winds turn to the Southwest by tomorrow evening as a cold front moves across the lake. Winds increase to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night and will continue through Wednesday night. Light and variable winds are expected Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds back over the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Mottice SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...DJB

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