Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010744 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WEAK WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST INTO PA AND NY. SOME OF THIS IS SET TO MOVE INTO NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THINNING AND MOVING EAST LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ON BALANCE AM EXPECTING PLENTY OF SS. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH COOLEST SHOULD BE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STILL THINKING THE MORNING THURSDAY WILL BE DECENT FOR MOST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE WEST THIRD WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. CAPES ALSO APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDER POTENTIAL. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST REACHING INTO THE AREA AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. CAPES AGAIN SURGE TOWARD 1000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WX ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850MB WINDS EXPECTED AT 60-70-KTS AND 925MB WINDS 40-50KTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH QPF AS WPC PRECIP ACCUMS ABOVE AN INCH. COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING PRECIP TO AGAIN BREAK OUT WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS 850MB TEMPS TURN NEGATIVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. NAM SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL TO HAVE SEVERAL INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST ON A LINE FROM MFD TO CAK TO YNG. GFS SHOWS SNOW BUT NOT NEARLY THAT MUCH. FOR NOW WILL HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH. TEMPS QUITE MILD THURSDAY WITH MID 60S TO EVEN POSSIBLY 70 FAR SOUTHWEST. 50S FRIDAY AND 40S SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER TO BUILD THE RIDGE IN OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO 4-8K FEET ACROSS NE OH/NW PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND MAY REACH ERI...BUT SHOULD BE BOTH BRIEF AND LIGHT AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST GIVING WAY TO JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE ICE FIELDS AND SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS POSSIBLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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