Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 170523 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 123 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will expand east across the area tonight then set up over the southern Appalachians for the remainder of the week. An upper level ridge will strengthen aloft heading into next weekend with another round of above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No significant changes for the 930 update. Although clouds have pretty much cleared...dew points in the extreme west in the upper 30s to the lower 40s...so will not expand the frost advisory. Original discussion... High pressure will increase its influence across the area tonight. Dry air continues to settle over the region. So as skies clear and winds become light the potential for frost will exist. It currently appears that winds will be the lightest across the south and east so only have the advisory for that region. Patchy frost will be possible outside the advisory area. High pressure remain in control on Tuesday but will be nudged southward as some jet energy moves across central Ontario. Other than increasing the winds slightly we expect no other significant impacts. Lows tonight near 40 NW Ohio and along the lakeshore, mid to lower 30s for inland locations. Warmer Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s inland NW PA to the upper 60s across NW Ohio. Slightly warmer Tuesday night with lows ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be in control through the short term. A weak short-wave trough will traverse across the moisture-stricken region Wednesday, which will help to keep southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. An upper level ridge begins to build over the region Thursday and Friday, which will result in light winds and continued sunny skies. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal by Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The ridge aloft is progged to move east by early next week as a progressive trough and cold front push across the country. The ECMWF throws a wrench into long term forecast by cutting off the deep trough over the south central states and leaving a split flow with the front strung out to the northwest of the area. Not sure if this will happen and not sure that a weakening front till won`t cross the area sometime Sunday night into Monday. The forecast will be close to the blended guidance but will keep the forecast pops a little below the guidance in the "chance" range given the uncertainty. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm (highs in the 70s) until the front arrives and even then it looks like it will take a reinforcing short wave (Tuesday next week?) to bring seasonably cool air back to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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High pressure over the Ohio Valley will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Light south to southwest winds will increase and gust to around 20 knots in the 15-22Z window on Tuesday. Winds will lose the gustiness heading into Tuesday evening and be out of the southwest around 5-10 knots. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations possible early Friday morning.
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&& .MARINE... Light northwest winds this evening will become southerly overnight. Southwest winds will increase Tuesday, which should be strong enough for a Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basin. Winds become a little more southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday and weaken considerably. South to southwest winds will continue through Friday, generally less than 10 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013-014- 020>023-029>033-036>038-047. PA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Kosarik/Mottice

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