Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 212319 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 619 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A STRATUS DECK REMAINS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA WHILE SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED TO THE WEST. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. HOPING THAT THE DOWNSLOPING HELPS CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE DEGREE OF CLEARING. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR BUT WILL BE PRETTY THIN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS FOR TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THE EAST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON FOR PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY THEN LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. ALLOWED CLOUD WORDING IN THE WEST GO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE THIN HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCING OVERHEAD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND STARTING TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. UNSURE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH. REGARDLESS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING AS THE TROUGH COULD DEEPEN MORE THAN MODELS ANTICIPATE AND SLOW DOWN OR KEEP PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS DID COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING THE 00Z RUNS TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION AS THE STRONG JET MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW IS SAMPLED BETTER. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURGE OF MOISTURE TRACKS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS NOW BOTH TRACK A WELL DEFINED LOW ACROSS WESTERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH UNDERGOES CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE WET WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FAIRLY STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. AT THIS THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY REMAINING RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING TO AROUND MINUS 8 SHOULD LIMIT ANY INFLUENCE OF LAKE ERIE. SO THIS MAY MEAN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL NOT SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE AN INCH OR SO COULD OCCUR. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S. THERE WONT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT BUT HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM THIS POINT ON THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER BOTH INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE. THE CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW OHIO WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME VFR LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BUT CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON LAKE ERIE AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKESHORE OF NW PA FOR SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL AWAIT THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING THIS STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS THEY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THE THREAT OF GALES STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE BUT WANT TO SEE A COUPLE MORE RUNS BEFORE GOING WITH A GALE WATCH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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