Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290549 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 149 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This warm front should be north of the area by Sunday morning. Another strong low pressure system will develop over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and force a cold front east across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Main area of active weather will remain across central and southern OH where the frontal boundary will remain for the remainder of tonight and much of Saturday. As this front strengthens, winds will back to the northeast. As the current batch of showers/thunderstorms moves across the local area though the early overnight, northern counties will see a pronounced break for the remainder of the night and into Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a stray shower so do not lower precip chances any lower than 30 percent. Keep 70 percent+ across the south the entire night. So far rainfall amounts nearing a half inch has occured south of US 30 and west of US 250. Marion has had 0.40. Possibility of another quarter to half inch if additional development materializes before morning.Temperatures appear to be on target and no additional adjustments were made with this mid evening update. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Warm front still struggles to push north and will likely take until Sunday morning until it actually reaches our forecast area. Most of the moisture associated with the boundary appears it will lift slowly north of the area during the day Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, another chance for some soaking localized rainfall expected in any thunderstorms across the area. Instability still supports chance of thunderstorm threat so will keep a mention going through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Northeast flow will keep area on the cooler side for temperatures Saturday, especially near the lake. Once moisture lifts north of the lake late Saturday night, forecast area arrives in the true warm sector and this should allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s again during the day. Cold front pushes toward the area and is expected to arrive during the day Monday. Forecast area will remain in the warm sector Sunday into Monday afternoon. As cold front arrives Monday, can`t rule out the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Wrap around moisture around the upper level low will keep a chance for some showers through Monday night. Cold air advection returns once again Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper trough will dominate the pattern Tue thru Fri leading to chances for shra much of the time. Temps will be below normal and maybe even a threat for frost one of the nights if clouds clear out more than expected and winds become light. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Complicated TAF period as warm front lifting north towards the region from the Ohio valley and cold front sinking south into the region expected to merge early in the period. This will be a focus for showers and possible TSRA through the period. Ceiling starting to lower from SW to NE across the region, with a period of IFR ceilings expected through the middle part of the period. Lower confidence in timing of precip and possible TSRA. Scattered showers currently across northern Ohio will lift NE. First wave tracking northeast along the warm front will allow convection to skirt the souther TAF sites like KMFD and KCAK near 12Z. Another strong wave lifting northeast may bring more convection to the terminals from 15Z through 21Z. Highest confidence in precip and possible thunder is the southern terminals from KFDY to KMFD to KCAK. Will likely need to monitor and amend as necessary for near term convective activity. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Mon then just sct shra Tue and Wed.
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&& .MARINE... Fronts north and south of the lake will tend to merge just south shore of the lake by late tonight then drift a little south into Sat night before lifting north across the lake Sun. A deep low will move ne thru the central part of the lakes Mon night into Tue pulling a series of cold fronts across Lake Erie Mon thru Wed. Increasing ne winds could produce near SCA conditions by Sat night before diminishing Sun. The deep low will lead to increasing south winds Mon that may reach SCA levels then colder air spreading over the lake Tue may lead to near gale force conditions which will gradually diminish Wed into Wed night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Adams is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.