Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250753 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE FAIRLY SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THESE VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY... DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TOL/FDY AREA BY 16Z...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...REACHING CLE/MFD TOWARDS 20Z AND CAK/YNG/ERI BETWEEN 21-02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT EVERY SITE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARNET NEAR TERM...GARNET SHORT TERM...GARNET LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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