Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 252340 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 740 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AND BRING SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT POSITIONED DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE AND BACK INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND A DEWPOINT DROP. FOR THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND IN THE CASE OF FAR NE OH/NW PA CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING. SOME CLOUDS MAY RE- DEVELOP OFF THE LAKE ACROSS NW PA AS COLD AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THIS COOL AIRMASS ONLY GIVES US A GLANCING PASS. WINDS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET...WILL STAY UP AS GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WHICH GENERALLY GIVE LOWER 40S DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD IN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...BUT OVERALL A FAIR DAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUN FOR MOST. WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST SNOWBELT AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE STICKS AROUND WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TURN AROUND AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGH OFF TO OUR EAST AND A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRY SO ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS MONDAY. MILD MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CLOSER THIS RUN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BASICALLY GETTING IT TO OUR EASTERN BORDER BY EVENING. WITH THAT HAVE RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE ABLE TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS PULL OUT TUESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. WITH LOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AREA LEFT IN THE DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE COLDEST AIR STAYING TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL GET DRAWN BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN...BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND BECOMES AN OMEGA BLOCK. DEEP NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LOW DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH DEEP WEST COAST LOW. THIS OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR TRICK OR TREATERS. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY WILL TREND TOWARD MILD CONDITIONS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CYCLONIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SENDING A COLD POOL OF AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE AIR MASS SLIDES INTO THE REGION AND SHIFTS EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AND BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE SEASON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST SNOW BELT. AS COLD POOL DIVES SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING COLDER THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION KEEPING SKIES MAINLY SKC. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST TWO THIRDS THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ON THE EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. WINDS DO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS DO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...MAYERS SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...LOMBARDY

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