Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261419 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 919 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push up the ohio valley today and off the Virginia coast by Monday. A low will move out of the plains Tuesday and across Michigan Wednesday pulling a cold front across the region early Wednesday night followed by reinforcing cold fronts on Thursday and Friday. High pressure will move up the Ohio valley Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies continue to clear from the west. The clearing should reach all but far NE OH and NW PA by early afternoon. Do expect some cumulus to form in the clear areas so will go with partly cloudy for skies much of the area for this afternoon. The lake effect activity continues to wind down. Have had reports of 1 to locally 3 inches on the higher terrain in the snowbelt. Not much more accumulation is expected as drying continues and winds become SW. Will go with scattered wording for another couple of hours but the afternoon should be dry all areas. Temps look fine. Previous...High pressure moving up the oh valley will cause the lake effect conditions to become less favorable thru the day. Another inch or so could accumulate in some spots in mainly nw pa before the snow showers taper to mostly just flurries for the afternoon. The axis of the ridge of high pressure pushing east should bring a period of partly cloudy skies west to east across the cwa today but by evening mid level clouds from a weak upper system and warm advection should be spreading back into the area. Temps should start to moderate in the afternoon with highs eventually making it into a range from the mid 30s east to lower 40s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection continues tonight thru Tue but lower level convergence with the warm front does not look good enough for much precip until later Mon night and Tue. Thus, there could be some flurries in the south late tonight and Mon morning changing to just a threat for sprinkles or light rain Mon as temps warm into the mid to upper 40s. The threat for precip will increase and spread south to north Mon night and Tue as a moist low level jet feeds into the frontal boundary inching north. The airmass aloft in the snowbelt could still be just cold enough for more snow versus rain late mon night so a little accumulation could occur in this area if enough precip develops before warmer temps arrive on Tue for just rain. The band of rain may lift ne thru the area by later Tue as the warm front pushes into Lake Erie so there may be a lull in the shra Tue afternoon into evening. Increasing dynamics from the low tracking just nw of the area Tue night and from thermal instability is expected to produce an area of convection that works east across the cwa Tue night. Will add mention thunder to the forecast and increase QPF. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another mild start to the day expected on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 50s, climbing into the lower 60s before the cold front swings through during the afternoon. Rain will likely be ongoing in the south and east during the morning with showers filling in all areas with the front. Precipitation will transition to snow overnight with minor accumulations possible in NW PA. Lake effect snow showers will decrease on Thursday as moisture depth dwindles. Models are trying to develop a clipper that will slide across the area Thursday night. We will continue to monitor changes in track over the coming days which will effect which areas could see a quick snow accumulation. High pressure will build overhead on Friday followed by warming temperatures as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Flurries and light snow showers across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will tend to taper off from west to east through 16Z. Ceilings are near 4K feet at most terminals with ceilings briefly dropping to MVFR in snow showers. Clouds have cleared out of TOL/FDY and will gradually clear from west to east today. Southwest winds will be breezy at most terminals with gusts of 20-25 knots. Surface winds will drop off towards 00Z at most sites and did include a period of low level wind sheer at TOL/CLE slides across the northern sites. Moisture will increase overnight with ceilings lowering to around 4K feet at some sites by Monday morning. OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory has expired on the west half of the lake as winds settle into the 10-20 knot range. The Advisory will continue through 3 PM from Cleveland eastward as waves are slower to come down. Winds are expected to back to the southwest with the higher waves shifting towards the open waters this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will slide east across the Upper Great Lakes tonight with southwest winds increasing to 20-25 knots on the open waters for a few hours. Better marine conditions expected on Monday as a ridge expands across the eastern Great Lakes. The next system to watch will be a low pressure system tracking out of the Plains on Tuesday that will slide east across Lake Erie on Wednesday. This system will pull a strong cold front across the lake with northwest winds sharply increasing to 20-25 knots or more on Wednesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams/Kubina SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.