Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 292327 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 627 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW WITHIN THE HOUR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE KTOL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS. PREVIOUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECTED PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THERE ARE LIKELY THIN AREAS AND BREAKS IN THE ICE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN THAT MAY AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. THE SREF AND SSEO AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATE ABOUT 1/3 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER NORTHWEST PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE MAV AFTER EXAMINING THE CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. WILL USE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT PIVOTS BACK INTO CANADA. SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 850 TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20C...FILTERS IN ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND RAIN/SLEET/SNOW CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL GRADUALLY EXIT OUT TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LOW CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. .OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. && .MARINE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT WINDS FROM SW TO WNW FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLUSTERY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT. FOR SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014- 023-089. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...JAMISON

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