Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 031157 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 757 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITES. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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