Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300834 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 434 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT. MENTIONED THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA ONLY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI AND ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE. CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY" IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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