Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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053 FXUS61 KCLE 241033 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 633 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift of the Southeastern Coast of the US this afternoon. This will allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes were made to hourly temperatures to reflect current trends. previous discussion... Upper level low pressure will move northeastward along the East Coast of the U.S. today. As it does it will allow upper level ridging to increase. So with a continuation of some subsidence and an increase in thicknesses across the region we should see highs a few degrees warmer than yesterdays levels. There may be an increase of cirrus by the afternoon but it will not limit the sunshine very much at all. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the north on Wednesday. Increased moisture levels, the approaching front and the lake breeze boundary should all impact the thunderstorm chances by Wednesday afternoon. However the coverage of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level ridge will remain fairly strong. So at this point in time it appears that the best chances for isolated to maybe scattered convection will be closer to the lakeshore and across NW Ohio. The frontal boundary may never move south of Lake Erie Wednesday night unless it gets a nudge by some thunderstorm outflow. In any event the front will lift back to the north on Thursday with some jet energy riding the north side of the upper level ridge. In this pattern the better chances of thunderstorms should remain across NW OH. Later shifts will need to monitor the situation Thursday afternoon/evening as a piece of jet energy moves across Lake Huron. It may be close enough to initiate thunderstorms along a lake boundary to the east of Cleveland. The upper level ridge then builds a bit more on Friday but with a moist atmosphere and warm temperatures will have to keep a mention of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. It will be warm through the short term with highs warming a degree or two each day. All inland locations should be well into the 80s by Friday. It will also become more humid with each day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term begins Saturday with models in decent agreement showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East Coast while low pressure will be centered in the plains. The ridge will build through Saturday before drifting east to New England for Sunday exposing the area to more of a swly flow aloft. In general both the ECMWF and the GFS show elevated moisture through the period with diurnal instability leading to the expectation of scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. temps will be above normal with highs 80 to 85 Saturday and Sunday...cooling to 75 to 80 Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... High pressure and a dry stable airmass will continue across nrn Ohio and nwrn PA through Tuesday. Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday as well as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week. && .MARINE... A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances will increase again towards the weekend as moisture and instability increase. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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