Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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861 FXUS61 KCLE 032052 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 352 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday. Sunday night a disturbance aloft will move across the Great Lakes as a surface trough moves through. High pressure will build back in for Monday. Another storm system will bring rain for late monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Radar shows light rain/snow showers developing across the northeast Ohio snowbelt counties this afternoon as low level winds back to a more westerly direction. Expect a light mix into evening...turning to mostly snow by mid evening before dissipatingas flow drop off. Expecting no accumulation. Otherwise while we could get a break up of some of the lower clouds west...high level moisture is filling in fast out of the lower mississippi valley so will go with cloudy skies overnight. Lows mid 20s to near 30.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A couple of systems will affect the area through the short term. The first comes Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models in decent agreement showing an upper trough to our west moving toward the area through the day as deep moisture continues to stream north into the area. Low levels show decent isentropic lift into the area...best from afternoon into early evening. Believe we can get through the morning dry most places. Will have pops increase to likely far west with chance pops from Lorain county south by late afternoon. Slight chance further east. Through the evening will move the likely pop east across the area. High pressure begins building in from the west quickly after midnight. Models dry the area out from the west after midnight as well so will have no pops west. Further east will drop to chance highest in the snowbelt. Airmass not all that cold so will hold onto a few lake effect snow showers into Monday morning but dry it out for the afternoon. The second system moves into the area. Late Monday night through Tuesday. Models quite different on timing and track with the GFS and ECMWF area slower and further east while the NAM and SFEF is faster and more west. Did bring categorical pops for Tuesday starting with a chance pop after midnight Monday night south. Most precip should be rain. Precip will taper off Tuesday night from the west. Highs 40 to 45. Lows around 30.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The doors will be wide open for cold air to spill into the region for the long term. A deep trough will be across the eastern half of the U.S...with the flow only becoming zonal toward Friday/Saturday. The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be upon us...with overnight lows in the teens Thursday and Friday nights away from the lake. Cloud cover off of the lake may keep far northeast OH/nw PA closer to 20 for overnight temps. Highs by Friday will struggle to get into the upper 20s. Wednesday night as the trough axis and upper support approaches we may have light snowfall across the area. Otherwise precipitation for Thursday...Friday and Saturday would be of the lake effect variety with a persistent westerly flow. The potential remains for significant accumulations.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Overcast conditions on the threshold of VFR to MVFR will be persistent. As high pressure shifts east of the local area...sites will begin to develop some breaks in the overcast...starting with FDY and working northeast. Low confidence in exact timing and ERI may sit at MVFR through 18Z SUN. As low clouds break up...they will be replaced by an advancing cirrus canopy. Lake effect showers will continue nearby ERI through approx 05Z. The west- northwest flow will go light/variable this evening and then gain a southeast direction for Sunday. OUTLOOK...Frequent non-VFR conditions...Sunday evening through Monday evening...Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. && .MARINE...
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Winds continue to decrease across the area this afternoon with high pressure moving overhead...and will let the small craft advisory for our PA waters off of Erie expire at 4pm. An active pattern will continue with a number of systems to affect the lake this upcoming week. With the high shifting east tonight winds will be southeast Sunday but the passage of a trough will bring them around to the west-southwest by Monday morning creating a choppy lake on the east half. Low pressure will approach the Ohio Valley from the TX coast on Tuesday. Guidance not zeroed in on a track...but general consensus is to pass south of the lake. This will impact which direction winds will shift around the dial. The cold air advection will be gradual but the gradient will begin to tighten Thursday as low pressure deepens along the New England coast. Lake effect snow bands can be expected at this point.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman

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