Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241745 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 145 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front over the midwest will lift north across the area this morning. Saturday, low pressure over Missouri will move northeast to near Chicago by Sunday morning. Sunday the low will continue northeast across the central Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar showing a lot of popcorn showers across the area. This activity will likely persist into midday so have gone with scattered wording much of the area. Have also bumped up winds some as it should be rather gusty today. Original...Rain moving east across the area early today. If timing holds, the precip should move east of Ashtabula/Trumbull counties around 7am and out of NWRN PA around 8am. Have moved pops to categorical in the grids across the region through the early morning based on timing. Will also linger likely/chance pops in NWRN PA into mid morning in case timing is too fast. With the warm front north of the area for the late morning and afternoon...still believe there will be at least some sunshine. Will still hold onto 65 to 70% coverage but should yield a "partly sunny" forecast in the zones. Impressive warm advection took place from late yday and through the night. By 12Z 850mb temps should be +10 to +12C across the area. This along with the broken sunshine should get afternoon temps into the 60s. Early today models show a 50-60kt low level jet across the area. Winds drop off back to around 30kts later this afternoon. With good mixing expected it should be a breezy day with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Tonight the warm front will be to our north but should begin to sag south towards morning possibly nudging back into the area. Believe for the most part we should remain dry with the focus for precip remaining north of the front. Will bring a slight chance into the northern counties after midnight and then increase to low chance pops extreme north towards dawn. Saturday GLFMX moisture will begin to get pulled north through the Mississippi Valley ahead of the low in Missouri. Looking at the NAM and GFS this deeper moisture doesnt quite reach into the area however it will be just to our west and south by 00Z Sunday. Still, enough moisture in the deep southerly flow to expect scattered showers. The nam also brings 500 j/kg of cape into the western counties during the afternoon. Best chances will be west so will have likely pops there and chance pops elsewhere. Will also have a chance of thunder where pops are likely. No big changes for the rest of the period. Saturday night and Sunday look wet as the Gulf moisture gets wrapped across the area. Sunday night the low weakens and the moisture begins moving northeast out of the area. Forcing is minimal so will continue lowering pops through the night west to east. Monday will still keep chance pops in place as low pressure moves across southern Missouri. Temps on the mild side. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Extended pattern continues to be in a state of flux with fairly rapid transitions between shortwave troughs and minor ridging taking place. This means overall weather pattern will be fluctuating between dry periods and wet periods. Polar jet stream is progged to remain north of the area keeping any arctic air masses from pushing south into the forecast area for the foreseeable future. First in a series of upper level trough/ridge pairs moves east into the area Tuesday. This trough will develop a weak positive vorticity maximum and result in a weak surface low pressure system that will move east across the Ohio valley region. Limited moisture with the features will move east across the forecast area as well on Tuesday. Hence, will keep a mention of showers in the forecast during the day pulling out to the east Tuesday night as the upper level and surface ridge builds east. Upper level ridge amplifies Wednesday and Thursday helping to build surface ridge over the area. Then, by Thursday, next trough diving southeast out of the northern Rockies evolves into a potent upper level low pressure system that becomes vertically stacked over Arkansas. Once the low pressure system rounds the base of the mean trough, it lifts northeast toward the area to bring more rain to the area by Friday. As mentioned, temperatures should remain mild through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Strong mixing behind a warm front has produced wind gusts around 25kt across the terminals. This will gradually diminish after dark and once the mixing and low level jet weaken. Moisture advection will support some cloudy conditions overnight which will help prevent fog development despite dew points around 50 degrees. Ceilings will move in around 5k feet, but could drop as low as 2500 feet closer to the warm front near the lakeshore. The primary challenge on Saturday will be the location and timing of the front as it dips back south into the region. The Erie airport will see the wind shift to the northeast will occur around 12Z with MVFR and possible IFR conditions thereafter. For CLE the timing will be difficult as models waver between 14 and 18Z. MVFR will likely transition to IFR during the day as rain chances increase. The next TAF site to see reduced conditions will be TOL which will be at the tail end of this TAF period. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday and Sunday. Non VFR possible again Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Warm front has lifted north of the lake this morning. Mixing has already produced wind gusts around 30 knots which will be on and off again through the day. The more stable/colder air over the lake will keep these as gusts with sustained winds 10 to 20 knots. Due to the strong gusts have hoisted as SCA for all waters. The short fetch in the nearshore should keep heights lower at the shoreline and a mile or two out, however after that could easily see some 3 to 5 footers. The mixing should settle down tonight with improved conditions briefly before winds pick back up on Saturday. Will reassess the headlines this afternoon. Northeast flow develops Saturday and will likely need a small craft advisory headline by Saturday morning continuing into Sunday morning. Warm front lifts back north Sunday allowing winds to diminish once again. Generally light and variable winds Monday into Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Jamison MARINE...Lombardy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.