Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300151 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 951 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL STILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW OHIO AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. STILL BELIEVE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND AND INTO NW PA. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE LIFT IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN OF NE OHIO AND NW PA. MUCH DRIER AIR IS SURGING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. SINCE WE ARE ADVECTING THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THE THREAT OF FOG LOOKS MINIMAL. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 70 ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO GET PULLED BACK NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S WITH DAYTIME MIXING. A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE SITUATION. CLOUD COVER WILL RATHER SCANT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY. THAT HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. ALOFT WE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW...ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE WAS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TODAY THOUGH TO BE ABLE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO TEMPORARILY NUDGE A LITTLE CLOSER. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL UP IN THE AIR. GFS WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF MOVES SHORT WAVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE REASONABLE...THIS FAR OUT WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH TOLEDO. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM LORAIN SOUTH TOWARDS MANSFIELD. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF TOLEDO. BY SUNRISE ALL SITES SHOULD BE FEW TO SCT250. THURSDAY AFTERNOON NW FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE HURON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...BUT IF WINDS ANY STRONGER MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF CLE FOR THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HOVERING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...DJB

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