Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281307 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 907 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough will rotate across the region today while surface high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. The high will be in the vicinity through Thursday. The next cold front is forecast for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning satellite imagery shows a broad cloud sheild associated with the mid/upper level trough over Lake Huron. These clouds will move into the forecast area this morning and throughout the rest of the day as the trough approaches. Meanwhile...surface high pressure is building in from the northern plains. Temperatures will warm very little from this morning`s lower 70s as cold air advection continues on the backside of a cold front. The airmass moving in today is significantly drier than what we`ve seen over the last 24hrs...however there could be enough moisture picked up over the lake and around 3-5k feet for some light rain/sprinkles. Prev Discussion... Cold air advection already underway this morning with the primary cold front through the county warning area. Upper trough with limited moisture as seen on water vapor imagery will cross the region today. For the most part this trough will only be able to produce a broken deck of clouds and little in the way of any precipitation. Of course cannot rule out a light shower so have the mention of a 20 percent chance. There has not been much more than a trace reported so far overnight. Temperatures will be significantly cooler today...70s...with a north-northwest breeze. No changes with this early morning update. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Skies will clear out across the west...lingering across the east as temperatures are just cold enough to have the lake sustain the cloud cover. High pressure will build over the forecast area Tuesday night and remain over the region through Thursday. Fair conditions will prevail during this period. The northwest flow will not allow for a big warm up...and we will reside in the upper 70s/lower 80s through midweek. Cold front approaching for Friday is not much to get excited about. Upper low will linger near James Bay as energy rotates through the base of the trough. Moisture return is short lived and limited...no Gulf influx. Likely just enough instability for scattered showers/thunderstorms to cross the area with the front on Friday. Have not increased precip chances...still sitting at a 30-40 percent chance. Not a lot of hope for a good soaking rain...except if you are one of the lucky few to get a passing storm Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front and an upper level trough should be east of the region on Saturday with dry conditions expected. The surface high should then remain in control of the region into Monday. Temperatures will return to seasonal averages for Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive this afternoon as an upper level trough passes. Winds in the wake of this trough will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds decrease during the evening as the region decouples with the drier air in place. Ceilings will develop/advect into the area as the upper level trough approaches through the morning. At this point it appears that ceilings will remain low end VFR. However a brief period of MVFR is possible for a couple hours in the wake of the secondary surge of cooler air. Have only mentioned mvfr at KMFD since the airport is at a higher elevation. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Morning update will be hoisting a small craft advisory for all but the western basin (Vermillion east mainly). The latest models show a slight uptick in N winds tonight into the 15 to 20kt range, which should be sufficient to push waves, when combined with fetch, into the 3 to 5 ft range. The SCA will be in effect mainly for tonight. High pressure builds across Lake Erie from the Upper Midwest tonight and then dominates the weather into Thursday. This will allow for lighter winds. Winds will attempt to blow onshore with the high overhead Wednesday into Thursday but with land/lake temperature differences minimal it will only support a weak lake breeze. The next cold front will move into the region on Friday with an increased southwesterly flow ahead of it. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Jamison/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Jamison/Mullen

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