Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 171113 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 612 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low moving northeast into Lower Michigan tonight will pull a warm front near the south shore of Lake Erie north into Canada. A cold front will move east across the region Tuesday then high pressure will spread southeast from central Canada into the area by late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of stratus and fog will be present for a while this morning until daytime heating and increased winds dissipate the fog by late morning. Some of the fog may be locally dense. Freezing temps early will allow for icy spots on roadways that are wet. A series of weak upper and surface lows will quickly move east across the region later today/early tonight and on Monday. Moisture with these systems is marginal so only expecting areas of light precip and the models continue to differ on where the better chc for the precip will be. Temps are expected to warm just enough for most of the precip to be rain but a little wet snow could mix in, especially around the higher terrain of NW PA. Most of the area should see lows tonight stay above freezing but some of the normally colder locations such as BJJ and inland NW PA could see 32 or 31 which may produce some icy spots by the end of the night. Highs today should mainly be 35 to 40 then a couple degrees warmer on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast begins on Monday night with mostly zonal flow in place, as the forecast area finds itself between two systems with low pressure off to the north and high pressure off to the south. The forecast for this period has consistently had a slight chance to low chance pop, as the guidance shows a piece of energy streaming through the region. In addition, there is ample moisture as low-level winds from the south will pool some moisture in with dew points in the upper 30s. However, confidence in widespread precipitation occurring during this period is not very high with the zonal flow aloft and lack of a forcing mechanism so will leave much of Monday night into early Tuesday unchanged for now. Temperatures will be well above normal for Monday night and Tuesday For Tuesday afternoon and beyond, the aforementioned low pressure to the north will extend a cold front across the area during the latter half of Tuesday. Rain will change over to snow as temperatures drop back down below freezing on Tuesday night. The winds will shift around to the west and allow for lake-effect conditions in the snow belt region. The conditions for some lake-effect look a bit better for Tuesday night than they did during the forecast package yesterday morning. However, dry air will quickly move into the area on Wednesday and shut down the lake-effect before anything headline worthy occurs. High pressure will move in at the surface for Wednesday and will allow for seasonable dry day across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term begins on Thursday with high pressure sliding off to the east. Compared to yesterday`s model runs, the next system that will approach the area for the end of the week has slowed significantly. The system likely won`t reach the area until the second half of Friday with the region in the warm sector for the entirety of Thursday and the first half of Friday. Therefore, have bumped up temperatures for the first half of the long term and held off precipitation until after 12z Friday. Low pressure will move through Friday night and Saturday with the cold front clearing the area sometime Saturday early afternoon. While there is some uncertainty on the onset of the precipitation for the end of the week, there has been much consistency in Friday night and Saturday being a wet period so have likely pops through those time periods. Precipitation will begin as rain and then chance over to snow has the low and cold front move through and temperatures drop below freezing. Westerly flow over Lake Erie will then allow for lake-effect to set up over the snow belt for Saturday night. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Areas of fog and stratus will be present until dissipation occurs between 14z and 16z as the airmass starts to heat and winds pick up some. A system moving in from the west will lead to increasing high and mid level clouds from SW to NE thru the day. Mainly just patchy light rain or sprinkles will try and spread NE across the region this aftn and early tonight. Fairly widespread fog and MVFR Cigs will develop tonight lowering to IFR for much of the area by the end of the night. Winds will stay light, generally under 10 knots while veering from E/SE to SSW into tonight. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR expected Monday. Non-VFR also possible northeast OH and northwest PA later Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure off to the north are allowing for mostly light easterly winds for today. Winds will remain rather light but will flip around to the south Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves northwest of the area for Monday. The low will increase the pressure gradient over the lake and winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots. On Monday night, the low moves off to the northeast and a cold front approaches the area. Winds will increase to 25 knots and winds will shift slightly to the west as the front approaches closer for Tuesday. A small craft advisory will be likely from Monday night through Wednesday with strong southwest winds and waves building to 3 to 6 feet or higher through that period. High pressure building to the south on Thursday will ease the winds over the lake and shift winds around to the south for the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Sefcovic

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