Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232326 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 726 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure should persist over the northeast third of the country into the middle of next week while surface high pressure tends to dominate the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Update...An isolated shower or two will be possible over the next couple hours across northwest Pennsylvania and into adjacent portions of Lake Erie. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through tonight. Any shower that develops over Lake Erie, mainly off the Erie, PA shoreline, will be capable of producing a water spout. A funnel cloud was reported along the Erie, PA shoreline as a shower moved ashore around 6:50 PM. Previous discussion... The main upper level trough will be locked over the eastern lakes tonight thru Thu night while weak s/w troughs rotate SE thru the area with the most pronounced one late Thu and early Thu night. The upper trough over the relatively warm leri will create instability that may lead to a few lake effect shra anytime into midday Thu before an increased threat occurs late Thu aftn and Thu night. There could be some isolated thunder but for the most part will just see shra. Temps will continue to cool with lows tonight in the 50s and highs Thu only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There will probably be some upper 40s for the inland east Thu night and maybe also in the MNN to MFD to BJJ area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 850 mb temperatures are progged to remain unseasonably cool on Friday. The ECMWF is a couple of degrees cooler than the GFS but either scenario continues the potential for some lake effect clouds and perhaps a few morning showers in the snowbelt. The lake clouds should mix out in the afternoon evolving into fair weather cumulus/stratocumulus and the last of the showers should dissipate. Highs on Friday generally with a few degrees of 70. Lows Friday night on the chilly side with 40s in many inland locations. The trough aloft is progged to drift eastward over the weekend. The ECMWF shows one last short wave diving through the trough on Saturday but it should be far enough east that it will have no impact on the forecast area given the dry and stable lower layers. Sunny skies with fair weather cumulus. The surface high should be east of the area by Sunday and the flow will come around from the ESE. Inconsequential lake breezes may continue. Cirrus clouds and perhaps even a few mid clouds could spread in from the west but the hope is for another day of mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temps in the 70s, a few degrees warmer than Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level closed low develops over Illinois on Monday and remains nearly stationary on Tuesday. Clouds will increase as moisture streams north ahead of the upper low but differences remain between long range models with respect to the amount of moisture and coverage of showers. Will continue with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in NW Ohio on Monday, expanding to much of central Ohio on Tuesday. By Wednesday the upper low will open and start to drift east across the region. Drier air will start to wrap into the system so will keep Wednesday dry for now. High temperatures expected to remain just below normal in the 70s through the extended. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Generally VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Could see a few isolated pop up showers for mainly the NE half of the area Thursday. Have added a PROB30 in for KCLE to KCAK and points east. Winds turn out of the north tonight and remain there through tomorrow. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in morning fog Friday through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... The west wind on Lake Erie has been marginally strong enough to support the small craft advisory, mainly up the east lakeshore. There is a weak trough of low pressure that will drop across the lake this evening and winds could pick up for a few hours. The increase may not be more than a few knots but will leave the advisory in place to expire at 10 PM. The only option will be to shave off Cuyahoga County since the fetch is shortest in this area. Another weak trough of low pressure will drop across the lake later on Thursday. The pressure gradient is progged to be weak and winds and waves should remain below small craft advisory criteria. The wind direction will be more northerly so the higher waves will shift from the eastern basin to the central basin. A large area of high pressure will move from central Canada to New England by early next week. Winds will slowly veer from a northerly direction to ESE by Monday. Winds speeds are expected to remain light. The east fetch can generate some swells on the western basin. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams/Mottice SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Kosarik

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