Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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183 FXUS61 KCLE 280231 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 931 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the SE coast tonight. This will allow a low pressure system to track into the Central Lakes Tuesday. The low will eject Wednesday forcing a strong cold front across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Last little bit of upper wave exiting eastern OH with a few sprinkles still showing up. Otherwise bulk of the remainder of the night will be dry. Showers on the doorstep of Toledo/Findlay around 6 am. Temperatures are on target too. So little change with this mid evening update. Previous discussion follows. Weak short wave SE OH will move quickly east of the forecast area this evening. With this early evening update have drawn out the mention of sprinkles a while longer into the evening across our southern counties. Have had a drizzle report at Mt Vernon and light rain at Wooster. But this will pass over the next three hours. Large ridge of high pressure that has been over the Eastern Lakes will move off the SE coast overnight. This will allow a low pressure system to move into the Central lakes Tuesday. As a result the south winds will increase overnight across the forecast area ahead of the low. That said expect the low temp for tonight to occur near midnight with steady or slowly rising temps overnight. Models not in good agreement on precip ahead of the system...but expect rain to move into NW OH toward daybreak tomorrow. So will go with chance pops NW OH after midnight tonight. No change here with the update. Have made tweaks to sky cover for tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Although models differ on timing trend is definitely similar. Low moves into the Central Great Lakes tomorrow lifting a warm front across the forecast area. Expect rain showers to spread east across the forecast area tomorrow with the front. However...left out mention of thunders as dew points do not make it into the 50s until evening. Much better chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. The 850mb winds increase to 65 knots while a 125kt 300 mb jet noses into the Great lakes. But will not hit it too hard since it will not occur until overnight Tuesday. Models also differ on timing of TSRA. GFS have the storms reaching NW OH toward midnight local while the NAM is a good 6 hours slower. Based forecast on the ECMWF which was in between. Showers and thunderstorms will move east across the forecast area as the front moves through on Wednesday. Luckily best shear moves east of the area Wednesday morning too. Falling temperatures behind the front will support a changeover to snow Wednesday evening. By midnight local expect all precip to fall in the form of snow. The 850mb Temps dip to -12c by daybreak Thursday...so expect some lake enhance snow showers in the snowbelt Thursday morning. High pressure builds in quickly on Thursday so snow should taper off during the afternoon. Models continue to track a clipper system across the upper Ohio Valley Thursday night. GFS continues to be much further north with the track than the ECMWF. For now will go likely pops across the southern counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad upper-level trough will move through the Great Lakes Friday and eventually off the Northeast coast by Friday night. There will be a chance of snow showers ending from west to east during the day on Friday. A surface high will move in from the west Friday evening into Friday night, bringing an end to all precipitation chances. Highs Friday will be slightly below normal. As the high shifts off to the east on Saturday, winds will shift back around to the southwest bringing warm air advection into the region. Most areas will see highs on Saturday in the middle and upper 40s, except for northwest Pennsylvania where highs will be stuck closer to 40. A weak surface trough will move across the Southern Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, which will bring a chance of snow showers early - transitioning to rain showers by late morning - across northern portions of the forecast area. Another weak disturbance looks to move north of the area Sunday, which could lead to a few showers across the area, but confidence in how this plays out is quite low. Sunday looks to be quite warm once again with temperatures rising 15 to near 20 degrees above normal. The next significant chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into Monday as a low approaches the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Swath of MVFR ceilings and a few sprinkles across central Ohio and part of northeast Ohio will slide off to the east early tonight. Showers will develop over the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley tonight and spread east northeast across the forecast area toward daybreak and during the day Tuesday as the low level jet and moisture advection increases. Ceilings will lower to MVFR and IFR ceilings may develop Tuesday but not enough confidence to forecast it in the TAFS at this point. The showers may taper off for a while Tuesday afternoon especially across northwest Ohio. Gusty south winds will develop at the surface. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night into Wednesday in -SHRA and TSRA with gusty winds. Non-VFR Wednesday night into Friday. && .MARINE... Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon as southerly flow increases out ahead of a low approaching from the west. Winds and waves should remain just below small craft advisory criteria during the day, but will increase out of the southwest Tuesday night out ahead of the cold front and then out of the west behind the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will turn around to the northwest Thursday afternoon and weaken. They will stay that way until Friday afternoon when they increase once again, this time out of the northwest. A small craft advisory may be needed during this time period, but there is still a bit of uncertainty this far out. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...Mottice AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Mottice

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