Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 031814 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION. SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE EAST SAT MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET. UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...TK

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