Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242212 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 612 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over southwest Ohio will move slowly northeast into New England by Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday night then shift east to allow low pressure to move northeast into the area by Sunday that will then hang around into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Update...No changes. Original...Low pressure over sw Oh will drift slowly ne tonight which should help a band of shra and possible tsra to spread ne across the cwa followed by a decrease in activity over all but the far ne by the end of the night. A few areas could see locally heavy rain where some of the stronger convection occurs, but in general rainfall amounts should range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. After highs today mainly in the 60s, low should only fall into the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The slow moving low will continue to produce fairly widespread shra and possible tsra Thu into Thu night that should finally shift into mainly the east half for Fri as the low shifts into New England. Even though more sunshine is expected for Fri, cooler air will be brought se into the area so temps both Thu and Fri will be below normal, especially in the ne on Fri. Weak high pressure will work across the area late Fri which should provide a brief period of dry wx. However, moisture and possible rain from the next system will likely start to push into the area Fri night and continue on and off thru Sat night. However, models keep making adjustments so confidence in timing of precip low for the Fri night thru Sat night period but fairly high confidence that rain will occur at some point. As rains continue to occur, the threat for flooding will likely increase Thu thru the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not much confidence on the timing of the cold front on Sunday. With the trough aloft well to the west, we could see a prefrontal trough or multiple troughs until the front clears the area (which could take until Sunday night). Will have somewhat higher pops across the eastern half of the forecast area, generally from about I-71 east. Will include a mention of thunder. The air mass is warm and will stick close to guidance. If it were to be rainy, then temperatures could be suppressed but if there are sunny breaks, temps should warm well into the 70s, perhaps even around 80. A decent trough is progged to linger the first half of next week and several short waves are forecast to move through the trough. The first on Monday is stronger on the GFS versus the ECMWF. The CMC maintains more of a closed low over the Great Lakes. Given the differences in the models and the troughy pattern, will forecast a generic chance of showers with temps a bit cooler on Monday and the same for Tuesday. By Tuesday, temperatures should be below normal. The GFS drops another wave through the trough on Wednesday while the ECMWF begins to flatten the trough with rising heights. The forecast will continue with a small chance of showers and temperatures below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Scattered showers should become more numerous during the afternoon and early evening as better upward motion spreads across the area as low pressure moves north from the lower Ohio Valley. Thunder is possible just about anywhere but limited it in the forecast to the western TAFs (KFDY and KTOL) where the best upward motion has been occurring. East winds will become gusty, mainly near Lake Erie. Ceilings will lower with the increasing shower activity and IFR ceilings will likely develop at all TAF sites except perhaps KERI. The showers should taper off early Thursday morning as the upward motion tapers off and the surface low begins to drift across northern Ohio toward Lake Erie. Winds will lighten and become more southerly Thursday morning. The cold front will push across the area from west to east Thursday late morning and afternoon and winds will shift more westerly. Ceilings may not improve above MVFR on Thursday. OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR through Thursday night in showers and again for the weekend in possible showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Low pressure developing in the lower Ohio Valley will be responsible for an increasing east northeast fetch/gradient on Lake Erie through the first half of tonight. Current thinking is that the wind and waves may stay just below small craft advisory criteria on the west half of the lake this evening but it will certainly get choppy. High lake levels will also lead to high water levels on the western basin but we will probably stay just below the Lakeshore Flood Warning criteria. Some uncertainty on where the surface low will be tracking on Thursday. Most of the computer guidance would suggest the surface low will end of near Lake Erie, perhaps near Sandusky or Cleveland, but with the uncertainty, the wind direction forecast should be used with caution on Thursday. Winds speeds should be light by Thursday morning in the vicinity of the low and for most of Lake Erie though. The low should move east of the lake Thursday night and the flow will come around from the west and then northwest. The WNW flow will likely back to southwest by the weekend. The next cold front is likely on Sunday. South winds ahead of the front will become westerly behind the front by Sunday night. Thunderstorms may accompany the front on Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams/TK SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Kosarik

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