Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 272314 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Ontario will move off the east coast tonight. High pressure over the midwest will slide across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes over the weekend with the associated front sagging across the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in for Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... No significant changes for the 630 update. Original discussion... Light showers developing on the back side of the surface low enhanced by the veering flow off Lake Erie will continue at times into the evening. Also, some radar echoes upstream have developed off the northern lakes. Just cold enough aloft to keep a small chance of showers in the forecast tonight, mainly in the snowbelt. Stratocumulus all the way back to the Mississippi Valley. The models show some drying from the north by morning but will stick with clouds given the northwest flow and the time of day. Forecast lows will be a degree or two above guidance due to the cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Decent ridging develops on Friday into Saturday but the next short wave is already charging across the Rockies and is progged to cross the lower Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. The models are not in agreement on how fast the front sags across the lower and eastern Great Lakes. The front could drop across Lake Erie as early as Saturday evening but with the approach of the short wave and weak development of a surface low on the front, a slower arrival of the front is preferred. Showers are already mentioned in the forecast for northeast OH and northwest PA on Saturday and will keep a small chance across extreme NE OH/NW PA given the uncertainty. With the increasing southwest flow ahead of the front, temperatures on Saturday should top off well above normal with 70s in most areas. With the entrance region of the jet overhead and the deepening trough there should be a good chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday as the front drops across the area. Cooler Sunday although there is some uncertainty in temperatures depending on the specific timing of the front. The front should be southeast of the area by Sunday evening and high pressure will build across the Great Lakes. It will likely not be cold enough for lake effect aside from a few clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak frontal boundary will move into the forecast area on Tuesday. This system is forecast to become quasi-stationary over the region for the middle part of the week. Initially, the front has very limited moisture and guidance is not indicating significant precipitation chances on Tuesday. A low pressure wave will develop along the front Wednesday. Moisture and dynamics will increase with the wave. Model guidance values increase precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be well above normals on Tuesday but should cool back to seasonal normals mid to late week. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Low pressure is to our northeast this evening while high pressure is building in from the west. Conditions continue mostly MVFR across Northern Ohio and NWRN PA with ample moisture trapped in the boundary layer under a strong inversion based around 3kft MSL. The airmass remains fairly moist at and below the inversion through the overnight before drying from the north and west during the day. Feel MVFR cigs will persist longer than guidance so will keep cigs MVFR through the night with patchy IFR possible at KYNG which is in line with an expanding area of light lake effect rain. This should begin to shift after 08z. Expect conditions to turn VFR around 15z west. Further east 16-18z expect VFR cigs but those should break to scattered after 18-22z. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night and more likely on Sunday possibly lasting into Sunday night. Non-VFR possible again Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... A low pressure system will move east of the lakes this evening. Pressure gradient across the lakes remains fairly significant. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots are possible through the evening with waves 3 to 5 feet. I will continue the current small craft advisory. Winds will decrease late tonight and should drop below small craft criteria a few hours after midnight. High pressure will build over the area on Friday morning. Winds will become light and somewhat variable as we transition into the high pressure system. Eventually winds will shift to the south to southwest during the afternoon on Friday. This southwest flow will continue through Saturday. Winds will increase in strength Saturday afternoon as another cold front approaches the area for Sunday. Winds and waves may approach small craft criteria on Saturday. A front will move across the lake on Sunday. This will bring a wind shift to the north northwest Sunday afternoon. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...DJB/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Garnet AVIATION...TK MARINE...Garnet is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.