Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 251541
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move slowly east
to the New England coast by Sunday morning. This will allow a warm
front to lift northeast across the area today. A cold front will
move east across the area Sunday evening.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the
day. Gradient across the area will be fairly weak and this should
allow winds to become light and a lake breeze to develop along the
lake shore. As high pressure begins to move east of the region,
expecting weak warm air advection to take place today at the
surface. 850 mb temperatures warm to between 3 and 4 degrees
higher than yesterday. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday
due to the warm air advection beginning to develop.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control tonight as it moves east of the
area. Warm air advection will take place tonight in earnest and
temperatures will be much warmer for Sunday and into Monday. A
cold front will approach from the west Sunday evening. Moisture
will be somewhat limited with the front Sunday evening. Due to
the instability and frontal passage along with the moisture, we
should see at least a likely POP for showers and thunderstorms.
Timing in relation to the cold front appears to be in sync and not
expecting any convection to develop well ahead of the frontal
passage. So, all in all, Sunday should turn out to be a winner if
one likes hot weather.
After passage of the cold front Sunday evening, drier air will
push into the region for Monday. A post frontal trough with some
limited moisture will swing southeast and clip the eastern
portions of the forecast area Tuesday. So, will keep at least a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the
area Tuesday. Temperatures during the latter periods of the
forecast will drop off back into the 70s for highs and lows in the
50s in the cold air advection.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough will be shifting east of the region on
Wednesday as a strong area of high pressure builds in from the
Northern Plains. Still a slight concern that there could be an
isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday as a northwesterly flow
persists at the middle levels of the atmosphere. If they do occur
it would be near and east of a line from Cleveland to Canton.
Surface high pressure then becomes the dominant feature for Thursday
into early Friday. By Friday afternoon the next piece of energy
looks to be rotating into the upper Great Lakes. This may bring
chances of thunderstorms to the region Friday afternoon into the
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the long term with highs
slightly below seasonal averages. Warmer Thursday into Friday with
highs near to slightly above normal.
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure expected at the surface and aloft through the day.
Lake breeze will develop with northerly flow anticipated near the
lakeshore. This will impact KCLE and KERI. Otherwise only a few
cumulus across the east for the afternoon and some patches of
Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected Sunday night into Monday in
thunderstorms. Non VFR possible across NE OH/NW PA on Tuesday.
High pressure will remain in control of Lake Erie into Saturday
night then shift off the New England coast. Winds will be light into
Saturday night. Winds increase from the south and southwest Sunday
afternoon as the next cold front approaches. A round or two of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through
Monday night. Winds will become west to northwest in the wake of the
cold front Monday night. The longer fetch will likely lead to choppy
conditions late Monday night into Tuesday. Small craft conditions
may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a reinforcing surge
of cooler air moves across the lake.