Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 262242 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 642 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift across the local area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cumulus field across Northern Ohio and NW PA continues to struggle to build. Have backed thunderstorm chances off to slight chance across portions of the county warning area. Even these chances may end up being too high. However will wait until after sunset before ending the thunder chances. Overnight lows should be close to current dewpoints
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather will continue during the period. Rain chances will be hit and miss during the period as there is a lack organized forcing at the surface. It appears best chance for storms will be on Saturday as the low over the Central Plains lifts northeast toward the northern Lakes. At the same time a wave will scoot up the west side of the upper ridge. It appears a weak warm frontal boundary will try to lift across the local area at the same time. The factors combined could provide enough forcing for some organized convection. Given the areas location under the upper ridge there will be little if any shear. So, the threat for severe weather is minimal. The models are similar with this scenario but all have slight timing differences. Will continue with chance pops most of the period. It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than the Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s every day with Saturday likely the warmest of the days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front will move south across the area on Memorial Day with humidity dropping off a bit. The frontal boundary should be south and east of the area early in the day so removed chances for precipitation from most areas, with just a slight chance continuing in the southeast. Daytime highs should only drop off a couple degrees but lows will trend back into the upper 50s to near 60 with high pressure overhead on Monday and Tuesday nights. Conditions should remain dry through mid-week but we will need to start watching for moisture return ahead of the next trough approaching from the Plains during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Large complex of thunderstorms over southern Indiana will continue to move to the east southeast. Activity has been dissipating along the northern portion of the line but expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop after 21z as remnant moisture moves into NW Ohio. Included a couple hour tempo for thunderstorms at TOL/FDY then VCSH at most eastern sites continuing into the evening. Confidence remains fairly low in timing scattered showers/thunderstorms into any of the terminals. Conditions will remain VFR unless in a thunderstorm. Given the high dewpoints, did include some reduced visibilities at most of the terminals towards 09-10Z. Any sites that receive rain during the afternoon will be more prone to reduced visibilities tonight. South to Southwesterly winds will gust to 15-20 knots at times through 22z...then drop below 10 knots tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions expected through the Holiday weekend with winds averaging 10 knots or less. Lake Erie is located between high pressure over the southeastern states and broad low pressure across the plains and upper midwest. Generally light wind pattern will allow lake breezes to develop each afternoon on the east half of the lake through Saturday. Low pressure will track out of the plains across the central great lakes from Saturday night through Sunday night with a weak cold front moving south across lake Erie early Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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