Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221434 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 934 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin to move in from the west today becoming centered over the area tonight into Thursday night. A cold front will move through late Friday night into Saturday with high pressure building back in towards the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cloud cover extends to IN/IL border so increased cloud cover over the area. Rest of forecast seems reasonable. Original Discussion... A band of rain and snow will exit to the east of the area by 5 AM. No snowfall accumulation will occur with this initial band of precipitation. Winds have come around to the northwest and north-northwest, which will allow for some minor lake-effect snow showers/flurries to develop early this morning from near Lorain County eastward. A shallow inversion is in place, topping out around 5000 feet near Cleveland and 6000 feet near Erie, PA. This will continue to lower as we head into the morning hours. There is little moisture available in the snow growth zone, so just expecting some flurries or light snow showers through the morning hours with little to no accumulation most areas. Some flurries will likely make their way well into the Secondary Snowbelt. The hills of northwest Pennsylvania have a better chance at seeing some minor accumulations from this morning into this afternoon. Generally an inch or less of snow accumulation is expected. Western areas will see the low clouds break up later this morning with some high clouds moving in during the afternoon. Areas downwind of Lake Erie will see low clouds stick around much of the day, but they should start to break up in the Cleveland area by late this afternoon. They will stick around all day into tonight across far northeast OH into northwest PA. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the mid-30s with lows tonight falling into the middle and upper 20s. High pressure moves in from the southwest tonight, bringing an end to any lingering lake-effect snow showers. High pressure at the surface will remain in control for the Thanksgiving holiday. Expect highs Thursday to rise into the middle 30s across inland northwest PA and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected with clouds breaking up across western areas by the late afternoon/evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday night but it will be dry for most locations. However there could be a few snow showers around Erie. We will then see a warming trend with most locations reaching 45 to 50 degrees. Unfortunately when it gets warm this time of year it is typically accompanied by gusty south to southwest winds. The cold front will cross the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. This front may not have all that much moisture to lift until it interacts with Lake Erie. So that will produce the best chances of precipitation across NE OH into NW PA. Rain should change over to all snow as we approach midnight Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As an upper level trough passes Saturday night into Sunday morning we expect a period of lake effect snow to develop. Current thinking lingers the snow showers into early Monday morning across NW PA. Accumulations are expected but still enough uncertainty to keep us from mentioning amounts at this point in time. High pressure takes control of the region by Monday afternoon but quickly moves off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Tuesday. This will allow the next storm system to move into the Western Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sunday will be the cold day of the long term with highs in the 30s. Warmer Monday with highs in the 40s. All locations should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Some scattered flurries/drizzle with MVFR ceilings will continue from KCLE to KCAK eastward this morning. Some lake- effect snow showers will affect NW PA later this morning into this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include anything more than a VCSH in the KERI TAF. Expect VFR conditions outside of any precipitation across central and western terminals. Ceilings will hover near the MVFR/VFR border all day at KYNG and KERI. Clouds will break across western areas later this morning, central areas this evening into early tonight, and far eastern areas later tonight. Winds will be light throughout the period. OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come Saturday as another cold front moves through. && .MARINE...
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Update...Updated the lake forecast to boost current conditions. Getting observations winds are closer to 15 to 25 and waves on the south shore up to 6 feet in places. Will however continue the expectation of diminishing conditions as the high builds into the area. Original...Winds will continue to decrease on Lake Erie as high pressure ridges into the area from the Middle Mississippi River Valley. The northwesterly winds will continue strong enough to keep waves in the 3 to 5 foot range from Vermilion to Ripley. The larger waves lingering longest from Geneva-on-the- lake to Ripley. High pressure will be short lived as the the next weak frontal boundary moves across the area Thursday night. The next storm system to impact the lake will be over the weekend. Southwesterly winds will increase Friday night into Saturday and may reach small craft advisory levels, greater than 21 knots, early Saturday. A small craft advisory will definitely be needed in the wake of a cold front Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mottice NEAR TERM...DJB/Mottice SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...TK/Mullen

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