Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 300528 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70 NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...OUDEMAN

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