Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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180 FXUS61 KCLE 242356 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 756 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday. High pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday. Low pressure is expected to move out of the plains across Ohio Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... First round of thunderstorm activity continues to move southeast at this time and out of the area. Another line of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the weak cold front west of Lake Michigan at this time. This activity is progged to move gradually east overnight and settle in over the forecast area. Made some adjustments to POPs overnight for timing and areal coverage. Otherwise, only minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and dewpoint temperatures. Previous Discussion... Temperatures have dropped in most areas due to the clouds and showers/storms and the heat index is below the heat advisory criteria so dropped the heat advisory. The batch of strong thunderstorms have moved off to the east although a few are still bubbling across the southern counties south of Route 30. Those storms will drift off to the southeast. Debris clouds/showers and a few rumbles of thunder across north central Ohio will also slide off the southeast and should continue to weaken as they have little support. New thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the cold front tonight as the low level jet persists across the lower Great Lakes. On the fence as whether to forecast "likely" or chance/scattered and ended up with a little bit of both. Lows mostly 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will slowly press southeast on Monday. It is a weak front and will undoubtedly be shallow. The morning showers/storms and any new thunderstorms may be influenced by outflow boundaries so it is difficult to determine how much new development there could be. Will continue with a forecast of increasing pops from northwest to southeast. Lake Erie and the immediate lakeshore should become dry in the afternoon. The storms should all be southeast of the forecast area by Monday night. Temperatures will begin to cool off, at least a little. High pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes through mid week. The air mass will be drier but it will still be warm. Upper 80s for most except along Lake Erie where a north wind will cool it off just a bit. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models continue to be in good agreement with high pressure centered over the lower lakes by mid week. high pressure gradually moves east allowing for temps to rise into the mid to upper 80s. Models continue to move large area of low pressure across northern Ohio by the end of the work week. Low pressure moves into area on Friday and moves east of the area Saturday. As far as timing GFS continues to be faster than the ECMWF. Used superblend for the timing. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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Showers have exited the area but regional radars show convection developing upstream in northern Illinois and across southern Lake Michigan. Although this area of convection may favor a trajectory to the southeast where strong instability is present, expecting more showers and thunderstorms to develop across lower Michigan overnight ahead of an approaching trough. These will tend to move southeast towards the area late tonight into Monday morning. Tried to time thunderstorms into the western terminals after 08Z but left thunderstorms out of the southeastern terminals where there is less confidence in evolution and a later arrival time. Will continue to monitor upstream growth and amend as trends appear tonight. High dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in areas of MVFR visibilities where skies are clear, especially at MFD/CAK/YNG. Reduced visibilities are possible elsewhere but cirrus from upstream convection will likely interfere. Wind will generally be 10 knots or less out of the southwest tonight and shift to the west during the day on Monday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms on Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions on the lake tonight give way to choppy conditions in the east tomorrow. Winds will turn to the southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow...behind a cold front will move across the lake tomorrow morning. High pressure builds in quickly tomorrow night and will remain over the lake through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KEC MARINE...DJB

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