Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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607 FXUS61 KCLE 190432 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1132 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over ohio and into pennsylvania tonight...hold nearly stationary thursday before shifting to the east coast friday. A weak low will move out of texas into michigan friday and dissipate leaving a warm front over the region. Another low will move from the gulf coast monday up the Appalachians tuesday quickly followed by another low that moves from texas late tuesday into michigan wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Pesky drizzle is struggling to move eastward. Just not advecting in any drier air at the surface so the drizzle is expected to continue. Since moisture levels are not decreasing it will be difficult to cool much overnight. So we have nudge lows up slightly across the region. We will monitor eastern areas for some freezing drizzle, especially across inland NW PA. If it does cool enough it will be short lived toward sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The next upper trough with a s/w rotating thru the arklatex area thu will cause high and mid clouds to start increasing from sw to ne on thu while highs look to climb into a 42 to 48 degree range. Lower levels moisten thu night to allow precip to spread ne across the cwa but the eastern part of the snowbelt should stay dry until fri morning. Temps will bottom out as low as the lower 30s in the ne thu night but thrut the cwa temps should start to rise the latter part of the night so the precip type should just be rain. The band of rain with the low and warm front should progress ne across the cwa fri while diminishing some in intensity which should keep the area from having any flooding problems. Most areas should see a break in the rain developing from sw to ne later fri into fri night and last well into sat. By sat night, another surge of deep moisture and lift will spread into the area leading to an increased threat for rain again. Temps will stay well above normal fri thru sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad upper level trough over North America is expected to close off over the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl northeast up the Atlantic coast during the early part of next week. Easterly flow will develop ahead of this system and transport a plume of moisture towards the area. Although models have slowed slightly over the last 24 hours, another round of rain is expected Sunday night and Monday. As the low moves north up the coast, chances of rain remain but will become more dependent on where bands set up. Above normal temperatures on Sunday start to trend cooler on Monday as east to northeast flow sets up off the lake. Although a modest cool down can be expected into the 40s, looks like above normal conditions will continue through the first half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Made some minor changes to the near term forecast periods in the cloud deck. Latest satellite shows low deck edge advancing northeast and high clouds streaming in over the top of the clearing. So, not expecting any sun tomorrow. Latest surface observations are showing 100 percent humidity and this is concerning as dense fog could develop. However, all models indicate winds should stay between 5 and 10 knots through the night and should help keep things mixed enough to prevent dense fog from forming. Otherwise, expecting MVFR category mist through the night and back to VFR tomorrow. Some very light drizzle is possible just about everywhere but especially east. Thinking is temperatures should remain just above freezing to prevent any icing from occurring from the drizzle. We should see low deck of clouds gradually exit the area during the afternoon hours followed by some high clouds as next system approaches from the southwest. Rain will approach the area from the southwest toward the end of the period in the west. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday and Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... A prolonged period of fairly good marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie with wind speeds forecast to be 15 knots or less through Saturday. Winds on Lake Erie will remain out of the southwest at 10- 15 knots tonight then become light as high pressure builds overhead...then shifts to the east coast late Thursday. Winds will develop out of the east Thursday night ahead of a trough that will lift north across the lake on Friday. Another broad area of low pressure will lift north from the Gulf coast on Sunday with east to northeast winds developing on the lake. Some uncertainty remains with the track and evolution of this system but may bring the next window of near Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie as the flow increases ahead of this system. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...KEC

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