Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251541 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move slowly east to the New England coast by Sunday morning. This will allow a warm front to lift northeast across the area today. A cold front will move east across the area Sunday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Updated...Minor temp changes made to current forecast. Original Discussion... High pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the day. Gradient across the area will be fairly weak and this should allow winds to become light and a lake breeze to develop along the lake shore. As high pressure begins to move east of the region, expecting weak warm air advection to take place today at the surface. 850 mb temperatures warm to between 3 and 4 degrees higher than yesterday. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday due to the warm air advection beginning to develop.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains in control tonight as it moves east of the area. Warm air advection will take place tonight in earnest and temperatures will be much warmer for Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday evening. Moisture will be somewhat limited with the front Sunday evening. Due to the instability and frontal passage along with the moisture, we should see at least a likely POP for showers and thunderstorms. Timing in relation to the cold front appears to be in sync and not expecting any convection to develop well ahead of the frontal passage. So, all in all, Sunday should turn out to be a winner if one likes hot weather. After passage of the cold front Sunday evening, drier air will push into the region for Monday. A post frontal trough with some limited moisture will swing southeast and clip the eastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday. So, will keep at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the area Tuesday. Temperatures during the latter periods of the forecast will drop off back into the 70s for highs and lows in the 50s in the cold air advection. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level trough will be shifting east of the region on Wednesday as a strong area of high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Still a slight concern that there could be an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday as a northwesterly flow persists at the middle levels of the atmosphere. If they do occur it would be near and east of a line from Cleveland to Canton. Surface high pressure then becomes the dominant feature for Thursday into early Friday. By Friday afternoon the next piece of energy looks to be rotating into the upper Great Lakes. This may bring chances of thunderstorms to the region Friday afternoon into the evening. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the long term with highs slightly below seasonal averages. Warmer Thursday into Friday with highs near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... High pressure expected at the surface and aloft through the day. Lake breeze will develop with northerly flow anticipated near the lakeshore. This will impact KCLE and KERI. Otherwise only a few cumulus across the east for the afternoon and some patches of cirrus. Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected Sunday night into Monday in thunderstorms. Non VFR possible across NE OH/NW PA on Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain in control of Lake Erie into Saturday night then shift off the New England coast. Winds will be light into Saturday night. Winds increase from the south and southwest Sunday afternoon as the next cold front approaches. A round or two of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through Monday night. Winds will become west to northwest in the wake of the cold front Monday night. The longer fetch will likely lead to choppy conditions late Monday night into Tuesday. Small craft conditions may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a reinforcing surge of cooler air moves across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Mullen

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