Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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504 FXUS61 KCLE 190525 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1225 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight. Low pressure will track from the southern Plains to the Midwest on Monday, lifting a warm front north across the area. A secondary wave of low pressure will track northeast across the central Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, pulling a cold front south across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Temps have generally hit their lows for the night as south winds are starting to increase and more moisture spreads into the area. First wave of low pressure will track out of the Plains towards the Midwest on Monday as the trough continues to deepen over the Great Basin. Deep southwesterly flow will allow for strong moisture advection overnight into Monday with widespread rain expected. Rain will arrive from the southwest between 5-10 AM as a 50 knot low level jet slides overhead. Dreary conditions with lots of low clouds will accompany a warm front lifting north across the area. Highs on Monday expected to reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Showers may start to taper off from the south during the afternoon as drier air starts to sneak into the mid-levels. This will be the first of several rounds of rain this week. QPF is expected to be near .75 inch. This could cause some additional rises on rivers that were running high from early this week, but not expecting any new flooding on Monday. Can not entirely rule out thunderstorms with this first push of moisture but instability is fairly limited with warm air in the mid levels so left out of the forecast for now. Temperatures will not drop off more than a couple degrees Monday night with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An unseasonably warm pattern is expected for the short term forecast period. A warm front will be well north of the area on Tuesday, allowing for strong southerly flow and ample warm air advection to overtake the region. The recent trends have shown Tuesday to be increasingly dry across much of the area with the only rain right along with the front in Indiana, Michigan, and far NW Ohio, perhaps into the Toledo Area. With the guidance continuing towards a dry solution and the latest runs even drier than the last, have cut down precipitation chances across much of the area and running a completely dry forecast across the southeast third of the CWA. In addition, with the drier air in the warm sector, lowered cloud cover quite a bit across the eastern CWA, as it looks like clouds are going to scatter out and breaks of sun are possible late Tuesday afternoon through sunset. Temperatures will be warm on Tuesday with the strong southerly flow, 850mb temperatures in the 10-12C range, and some mixing with scattering clouds, record highs will be possible across much of the forecast area. As for the rest of the short term, the rest of the period looks active as low pressure moves through the central Great Lakes and extends a cold front across the area for Wednesday. The front looks to move quickly across the area so most rain should be confined to Wednesday but the recent guidance has some rain lingering into Thursday so will leave a slight chance of rain in for now. Temperatures have quite the mountain to fall down so will likely remain above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, especially with 850 temperatures struggling to hit 0c again until well after the frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pattern shift will take place this week as upper level troughiness takes place over the western United States and the eastern portions see ridging. This will transition the forecast area into a much warmer pattern that begins early in the week with moderate temperatures continuing into next weekend. Upper level high pressure will setup over the western Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of Georgia. The vertically stacked high will place a surface high off the coast as well by Thursday night. A weak wave of low pressure will move east across the forecast area late Friday into Friday night along a stationary front that will lie Southwest to Northeast across the forecast area. Low pressure will move northeast into the western Great Lakes forcing a the stationary front to lift north as a warm front Sunday. This should place the forecast area in the warm sector once again. Due to the close proximity of the stationary front to the forecast area and the waves of low pressure affecting the Great Lakes, some moisture will remain present through the period and will bring increasing chances for precipitation each day. The exception will be Sunday when there are some differences in the models in the timing of the low pressure out of the Southwest. GFS has the low and associated moisture out of the area Sunday but lags behind in the European. Will trend this period toward a dry forecast and see how timing adjustments occur with time. Otherwise, looking at a fairly mild pattern through the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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VFR will give way to mix of low MVFR/IFR as shra rapidly develop SW to NE across the area from 09z to 14z ahead of a warm front that will lift north across the area thru this evening. Conditions will then slowly improve from south to north later this afternoon and early tonight as the more widespread rain shifts north with the front. The airmass may become just unstable enough by later today for some thunder to start to occur. Southerly winds will continue to increase the rest of the night as a moderately strong low level jet develops. Have continued to mention low level wind shear in the TAF`s, especially for the time period when the warm front is pushing across the region. Winds will become more gusty from south to north as the rain decreases in coverage Monday afternoon and evening. The downsloping southerly flow near KERI will nudge wind gusts up by sunrise and then likely persist into Monday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into Tuesday, especially for TOL and ERI. Non-VFR possible all sites in showers on Wednesday then again on Friday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure drifting off to the east will allow southerly flow to continue tonight. For Monday, winds will increase from the south to the southwest at 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts as a warm front moves over the area and north of the lake. Low pressure will move along front on Tuesday and extend a cold front across the area on Wednesday, shifting winds around to the northwest at 5-15 kts. High pressure building in on Thursday behind the front will allow for fairly calm conditions through the end of the week. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday, February 20th. Here are record high temperatures for climate sites for that date: Climate Site Record High Year Cleveland (CLE) 69 1930 Akron-Canton (CAK) 67 2016 Youngstown (YNG) 65 2016 and 1939 Mansfield (MFD) 66 2016 and 1930 Toledo (TOL) 66 1930 Erie, PA (ERI) 66 2016 and 1930 Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are forecast to be close to all time record highs for the month of February. Here are the all time daily record high temperatures for the month: Climate Site Record High Date Cleveland (CLE) 77 2/24/2017 Akron-Canton (CAK) 76 2/24/2017 Youngstown (YNG) 75 2/24/2017 Mansfield (MFD) 74 2/24/2017 Toledo (TOL) 71 2/24/2017 (Tie with 4 dates) Erie, PA (ERI) 77 2/24/2017 Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are also forecast to be close to all time record highs for the meteorological winter season (December - February). Here are the all time daily record high temperatures for the winter season: Climate Site Record High Date Cleveland (CLE) 77 2/24/2017 Akron-Canton (CAK) 76 2/24/2017 and 12/3/1982 Youngstown (YNG) 76 12/3/1982 Mansfield (MFD) 74 2/24/2017 Toledo (TOL) 71 2/24/2017 (Tie with 6 dates) Erie, PA (ERI) 77 2/24/2017 && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen/Adams SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Sefcovic CLIMATE...Sefcovic

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