Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 200227 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 927 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REACHES MINNESOTA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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CONTINUED DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ACROSS NW OH FOR A FEW HOURS BUT SOME MAINLY THICK CIRRUS IS ABOVE THAT...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST TO CLOUDY EAST WILL WORK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOSING THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY OVER NW OH THAT COULD CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND THEN RECOVER WHEN THE CLOUDS THICKEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BELOW THE INVERSION HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TOUGH TO READ THE BREAKUP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KERI SHOW SOME DRYING UNDER THE INVERSION DURING THE NIGHT HINTING AT BREAKS POSSIBLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT CLEAR CUT BUT FOR NOW WILL SKY COVER IN THE UPPER 60 AND 70% RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 85% COVERAGE OR ABOVE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP ATTM. LOWS IN THE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING SUNDAY AS THE AXIS FAR ENOUGH EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE MIXING. NEXT REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE NAM A TOUCH MORE MOIST. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL SATURDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STORM NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK SO FAR TO THE WEST WITH THE 12Z RUNS TODAY THERE IS LESS INDICATION OF A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES. HAVE USED THE EURO GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC WHICH HAS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. RATHER MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. USING THE EURO TIMING FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL TOWARD FREEZING CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS LAKE HURON. SOME WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM ASHTABULA TO ERI. THIS PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES AND RELAXES BY FRIDAY AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE EURO. HAVE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EURO FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STUBBORN STRATUS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 2K FEET. ONLY SITE WITH POSSIBLE IFR APPEARS TO BE MFD OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES MAY BREAK INTO VFR TERRITORY LATE...SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT THAT...NOT GREAT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE YET. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON-VFR RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY AND STICKS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST AT 19/20Z. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KEEPING THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...FUNNELING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WRAP UP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND BECOME CUT OFF...WHICH WILL DELAY ITS ARRIVAL ON STATION BY UP TO A DAY. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH MORE ELONGATED INNER CLOSED ISOBAR LOCATED GENERALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. OF COURSE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ACROSS THE LAKE...SO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED MUCH FINE TUNING. ONCE THE MODELS PUSH THE LOW OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AND INTO MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA BY 25/18Z...GALES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON THE LAKE. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LAPLANTE AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...MAYERS

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