Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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315 FXUS61 KCLE 051151 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 651 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today. The high will drift into New England Tuesday...allowing a low pressure system to track across the upper Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low pressure now over Lake Ontario and precip has moved east of the forecast area with the system. Left chance for drizzle or flurries in the east for remainder of this morning. Original discussion... Temps hovering in the mid to upper 30s across the entire forecast area. The rain/snow thresholds have been 34 for snow and 36 for rain. A little rain/rain-snow mix still lingering in the extreme east. Expect precip to move east of the area by mid morning. Stratus deck extends west into Iowa. Expect clouds to linger over the entire area this morning...and not clearing in the extreme east until this evening. As a result went a little below mos for todays high temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this evening and move into New England by late Tuesday. This will allow upper level short wave and surface low to track across the Ohio Valley. Still some timing differences...but basically models track the surface low into KY by daybreak Tuesday. Models a little slower with the precip today...with the precip not reaching the southern forecast area until after 12z. With the slower timing precip may start as a brief mix...but should quickly transition to all rain. Low quickly tracks into PA and dissipates as absorbed by a coastal low. Upper level short wave drops across the Great Lakes Wednesday night kicking off scattered snow showers. Weak surface front moves through Thursday ushering in much colder conditions by the weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models are in decent agreement into Friday afternoon with snow showers expected to continue with some enhancement off of Lake Erie expected for the Snowbelt. Models begin to differ Friday night with the amount of ridging that spreads into the region. This will impact how long the lake effect snow showers will linger into Saturday. Will keep likely pops going into Friday night NE OH into NW PA then tapering off through Saturday. A warm advection pattern then sets up and will attempt to bring a period of snow to the region Saturday night into Sunday. Models are struggling with the timing of this. For now will handle this mention with slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages through the long term. Highs will be in the mid 20s to around 30 for Friday and Saturday. Slightly warmer on Sunday with all locations into the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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Westerly winds of 8 to 15 knots will occur across the region into the afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible this morning across NE OH and NW PA, strongest near the lakeshore. Otherwise MVFR ceilings are common this morning. Models continue to hint that a few hours of IFR remain possible at times through 18Z. However the best chances of this occurring will be from the Central Highlands to NW OH. MVFR ceilings look as if they will dissipate by 00Z but some high level cloud cover will be spilling across the region. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in rain/snow showers. Lake Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with non-VFR expected, especially across NE OH/NW PA.
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&& .MARINE... Winds have increased with the frontal passage and will go with a small craft advisory for the eastern half of the lake into this afternoon. High pressure will build over the lake by late afternoon with the pressure gradient relaxing. East to southeast winds are expected on Tuesday as a warm front lifts toward the lake. A cold front will then sweep across the lake Tuesday night with west to northwest winds in its wake. Waves will build with the longer fetch and will need to monitored for small craft advisory conditions. The next surge of colder air will arrive on Thursday with westerly winds increasing into Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Mullen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.