Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251757 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 157 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The region will continue to be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, today through Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area. High pressure will then build in across the region briefly Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Update...Light rain drying up quickly now and satellite shows thinning clouds from the south so forecast on track. Have made adjustment to sky grids to reflect increasing sun. Also adjusted pop grids down to slight chance early northeast OH and northwest PA but shouldn`t be much. Original Discussion... A low over the Carolinas will continue to move up the eastern seaboard today. This has brought widespread clouds to eastern parts of the area, with more scattered clouds farther west. There is not much moisture to work with, but we have seen a few light showers/sprinkles move into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this morning. Expect a continued chance of light showers/sprinkles from near Cleveland eastward through the morning hours. Any chance of precipitation will quickly come to an end by early this afternoon as the low continues its northeastward trek. Temperatures this afternoon should be similar to yesterday in most areas, though it will be a little warmer along coastal areas. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 50s. A very warm April day is in store for Wednesday with many locations likely reaching the lower 80s for highs - generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night, with low temperatures closer to the normal daytime high for this time of year (lower to middle 60s). A low across the Upper Great Lakes/Southern Ontario Thursday will force a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. This will trigger showers and thunderstorms progressing from west to east across Ohio during the early to mid afternoon and eventually reaching northwest Pennsylvania by the late afternoon/evening hours. A strong shear profile will be present Thursday morning/afternoon along with marginal instability. Therefore, there is at least a chance of a stronger storm or two. One of the main limiting factors will be moisture as the low occludes. High pressure builds back into the area Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. High temperatures Friday still look to be above normal with just a slight chance of a shower during the afternoon hours as the next low approaches from the southwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models are in decent agreement with the storm system that will impact the region Saturday through Monday. Still have concerns that the models are ejecting this low faster than what will really occur. If it is slower the lift near the warm front may end up causing a longer period of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into early Sunday. At some point the region looks as if it will be in the warm sector. This will likely be on Sunday but as stated above the timing is still in question. The cold front may be cross the region Monday morning with showers/thunderstorms along it. Temperatures Saturday into Sunday will all hinge on the location of the warm front. In any event all locations should see highs above seasonal averages. Uncertainly remains for highs on Monday since we do not trust the timing of the front moving across the area. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Drier air moved into the region clearing out this morning`s rain as it lifted north. Some mid level clouds are lingering in the east but should lift out this afternoon. As for a lake breeze believe ERI will be impacted but CLE should remain just south of the wind shift. VFR conditions expected to continue into the overnight. Prevailing southeast flow will continue tonight. As winds go light towards dawn areas that received rain could see some MVFR conditions notably ERI/YNG. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.
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&& .MARINE... Winds continue to decrease on Lake Erie as low pressure moves off the middle Atlantic Coast. This has allowed waves to subside to 2 to 3 feet at most locations. The easterly flow may pick back up again this afternoon but it appears it will be too short lived to warrant keeping the small craft advisory going. So we will allow the small craft advisory to come down. Winds will shift more to the the southeast by Wednesday evening as low pressure moves to near Lake Michigan. Winds will become southwest to west as the cold front crosses the region on Thursday with small craft conditions anticipated late Thursday morning through the afternoon. High pressure will briefly build onto the lake Thursday night into early Friday brining light winds. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mottice NEAR TERM...TK/Mottice SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Jamison MARINE...Mullen

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