Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241946 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 346 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough extending from low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will swing south across the area this evening. High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Tuesday then to the New England coast on Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will track east along a cold front over the area on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Satellite imagery shows cloud cover thickening from the north as a secondary trough extending from low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes slides south across Lake Erie. As the trough crosses Lake Erie, weak convergence over the warm waters of the lake may be sufficient for a few showers to develop, mainly for points east of Cleveland into NW PA. Anticyclonic flow and subsidence will reach NW Ohio later this evening with clouds attempting to scatter out. Meanwhile expecting mostly cloudy skies to hold across the eastern half of the area and gradually drift southwest later tonight. Went with a blend of the RAP/NAM lows for tonight given the expected cloud cover which is slightly warmer than the MOS guidance. Clouds will gradually scatter out on Tuesday as we mix out the shallow moist layer. Clearing across the west half of Lake Erie will expand inland with time. Some clouds may linger across PA through the day where highs will be near 70 degrees again. Temperatures will be warmer in the west with highs near 80. Any lingering cumulus should clear out Tuesday night. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s with high pressure overhead and light winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Wednesday begins with high pressure centered over New England extending a ridge back across Lake Erie. A cold front will extend northeast/southwest across the western lakes. During the day the ridge weakens however the airmass across the region will remain dry. Wednesday night the front will continue to approach the region from the northwest. By 12Z Thursday the front will be near a line from the thumb of Michigan to Chicago and is expected to move into the area during the day. Models a bit different with the progression of the boundary through the area with the GFS seemingly drier than the ECMWF. Have shaded the forecast more toward the ECMWF and will bring likely pops to the region for Thursday, tapering from west to east Thursday night. Friday will begin with chance pops east but should dry out quickly with high pressure building into the region from the northwest. Seasonal highs to start dropping to a few degrees below normal by Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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By Friday evening the front is well south of the forecast area and large area of Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes. The high will remain anchored over the great lakes providing dry with temps a little below normal into the weekend. GFS tracks low across the Tennessee Valley on Saturday but ECMWF is further south with the system. Either way will be a dry forecast. Another system tracks into the Tennessee Valley on Monday. Still appears far enough south that the forecast should remain dry.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR stratocu deck in place across the region today with just a few pockets of MVFR ceilings remaining. Expecting ceilings to lift to VFR all sites by later this afternoon with clouds starting to scatter out in NW Ohio this evening. NW winds will be breezy at times this afternoon, mainly at CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG. A trough will swing south across Lake Erie by 21Z with a few stray showers possible near ERI. Any showers will be brief. Ceilings will tend to lower to MVFR at NE Ohio/NW PA sites tonight as wrap around moisture gets trapped beneath a strengthening inversion. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold front expected Thu. && .MARINE...
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Winds currently from the northwest at 15 to 20 knots with gusts into the mid 20s behind a cold front now south of the lake. Waves central and east are between 4 and 5 feet. Models show another surface trough dropping across the lake this evening which should sustain winds into the evening before diminishing. Will continue with headlines unchanged however if winds remain up an hour or two longer waves small craft will need to be extended into Tuesday morning given the northerly direction. Also for this evening will include the potential for an isolated waterspout east half given favorable conditions. Otherwise high pressure will build in for Tuesday allowing winds and waves to diminish. The next significant weather maker will be Thursday when a weakening cold front crosses the lake out of the northwest. Winds with the front are not expected to be a problem however would expect the need for a small craft advisory by Friday as north to northeast flow increase to about 15 knots as building high pressure behind the front tightens the gradient as it expands east across the lakes and low pressure strengthens in the lower Ohio valley. Northeast flow will continue through Saturday although at diminished speeds.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KEC MARINE...TK

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