Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 282301 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 701 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES. THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10. WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST. OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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