Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 180113 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE. COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S. AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED. HAVE USED THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR. NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...LAPLANTE AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MAYERS

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