Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 030521 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 121 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET PATTERN. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...SEFCOVIC

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