Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 190531 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front located over Lake Erie will drift southeast across the region this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight. The high will then dominate the weather the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update...Updated cloud cover for the overnight. Original... Weakening cold front will sag southward across the region this evening with a few showers possible Coverage will be scattered at best and mainly be located across the western half of northern Ohio. High pressure will ridge into the area behind the front. However there will not be much of an airmass change so a few showers may linger into Tuesday night as a weak trough persists. Cant rule out a rumble of thunder this evening or Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side unless a thunderstorm passes overhead. Warmer than seasonal averages through Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday will be the only day in the second half of the week with a bit of troughing across the area. With the moisture axis shifted across the central portions of OH, have carried a 20-30 percent chance of a shower. Realistically an isolated thunderstorm would be possible. Beyond Wednesday though the ridge will build across the region. In fact the next cold front upstream will not have a chance to make it into the area Thursday or Friday. Temperatures will remain warm with highs upwards of 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Models still show upper and surface ridging dominating thru Mon which should keep conditions dry while temps run above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Little change in the weather is expected the next several hours with IFR cigs persisting at TOL. Elsewhere mid level clouds will continue to advance slowly east ahead of a dying cold front. Will keep all but TOL and FDY VFR through the end of the period. Expect cigs to eventually dip back to MVFR at FDY. That is also where best chances for showers exist today. Only TOL...MFD and FDY will get a precip mention today with best chances from mid morning thru early afternoon. Light and variable flow will become SE to S most areas with onshore flow developing at ERI and CLE this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Wednesday through Friday mornings.
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&& .MARINE... Shower or isolated thunderstorm threat will remain across the western half of the area tonight and Tuesday, but other than that high pressure will be in control of the weather across the lake for the remainder of the week. Winds will continue to be light and therefore waves will be minimal. Expect a southerly component each night and a shift to the north-northeast during the afternoons. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.