Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011055 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 655 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES AGAIN. THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY DRY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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