Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281522 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1122 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UP. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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