Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271352 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 952 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. ORIGINAL...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE LIFT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND AS THEY CROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAIL. WILL MENTION THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THUNDER MOVING EASTWARD WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NW OHIO FRIDAY EVENING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DRIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE MAIN PUSH OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHS RETURN TO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 80S. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TREND CONTINUES FOR SATURDAYS COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN...BUT STILL LEFT SOME AS THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. FAIR WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAYS COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF CHICAGO AT 11Z. EXPECT QUICK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT FIRST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA. VFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG/BR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY. OUTLOOK...LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LAKE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. COULD SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN

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