Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 280010 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE...BOOSTED ACCUMS THROUGH THE EVENING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WHERE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO PUT IN A 1 TO 2 ACCUM ACROSS NWRN PA. DRY AIR STILL COMING IN THROUGH SO EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE. IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...DJB MARINE...LOMBARDY

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