Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCLE 190432
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1132 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over
ohio and into pennsylvania tonight...hold nearly stationary thursday
before shifting to the east coast friday. A weak low will move out
of texas into michigan friday and dissipate leaving a warm front
over the region. Another low will move from the gulf coast monday up
the Appalachians tuesday quickly followed by another low that moves
from texas late tuesday into michigan wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pesky drizzle is struggling to move eastward. Just not advecting
in any drier air at the surface so the drizzle is expected to
continue. Since moisture levels are not decreasing it will be
difficult to cool much overnight. So we have nudge lows up slightly
across the region. We will monitor eastern areas for some freezing
drizzle, especially across inland NW PA. If it does cool enough it
will be short lived toward sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next upper trough with a s/w rotating thru the arklatex area thu
will cause high and mid clouds to start increasing from sw to ne on
thu while highs look to climb into a 42 to 48 degree range.
Lower levels moisten thu night to allow precip to spread ne across
the cwa but the eastern part of the snowbelt should stay dry until
fri morning. Temps will bottom out as low as the lower 30s in the ne
thu night but thrut the cwa temps should start to rise the latter
part of the night so the precip type should just be rain.
The band of rain with the low and warm front should progress ne
across the cwa fri while diminishing some in intensity which should
keep the area from having any flooding problems. Most areas should
see a break in the rain developing from sw to ne later fri into fri
night and last well into sat. By sat night, another surge of deep
moisture and lift will spread into the area leading to an increased
threat for rain again.
Temps will stay well above normal fri thru sat night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper level trough over North America is expected to close off
over the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl northeast up the Atlantic
coast during the early part of next week. Easterly flow will develop
ahead of this system and transport a plume of moisture towards the
area. Although models have slowed slightly over the last 24 hours,
another round of rain is expected Sunday night and Monday. As the
low moves north up the coast, chances of rain remain but will become
more dependent on where bands set up. Above normal temperatures on
Sunday start to trend cooler on Monday as east to northeast flow
sets up off the lake. Although a modest cool down can be expected
into the 40s, looks like above normal conditions will continue
through the first half of the week.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Made some minor changes to the near term forecast periods in the
cloud deck. Latest satellite shows low deck edge advancing
northeast and high clouds streaming in over the top of the
clearing. So, not expecting any sun tomorrow. Latest surface
observations are showing 100 percent humidity and this is
concerning as dense fog could develop. However, all models
indicate winds should stay between 5 and 10 knots through the
night and should help keep things mixed enough to prevent dense
fog from forming. Otherwise, expecting MVFR category mist through
the night and back to VFR tomorrow. Some very light drizzle is
possible just about everywhere but especially east. Thinking is
temperatures should remain just above freezing to prevent any
icing from occurring from the drizzle. We should see low deck of
clouds gradually exit the area during the afternoon hours followed
by some high clouds as next system approaches from the southwest.
Rain will approach the area from the southwest toward the end of
the period in the west.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday and Sunday.
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A prolonged period of fairly good marine conditions are expected on
Lake Erie with wind speeds forecast to be 15 knots or less through
Saturday. Winds on Lake Erie will remain out of the southwest at 10-
15 knots tonight then become light as high pressure builds
overhead...then shifts to the east coast late Thursday. Winds will
develop out of the east Thursday night ahead of a trough that will
lift north across the lake on Friday. Another broad area of low
pressure will lift north from the Gulf coast on Sunday with east to
northeast winds developing on the lake. Some uncertainty remains
with the track and evolution of this system but may bring the next
window of near Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie as the
flow increases ahead of this system.