Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271308 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 908 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PUSH SSE OF THE CWA BY EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SHOULD LIKEWISE START TO END NNW TO SSE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO LINGER AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO THE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR NORTHERLY FLOW THRU THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH ONLY 45 TO 50 IN THE NE TO POSSIBLY AROUND 57 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE INLAND. REMAINING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT. PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY LOW. INTERACTION OF JET ENERGY DEVELOPING A TROUGH/POSSIBLY CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WHICH TAKES A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST VARIES. OP GFS APPEARS TO REMAIN THE OUTLIER AND HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GFS ENS WHICH ARE NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW. SO EVENTUALLY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AT THIS POINT THURSDAY. KEPT POPS AT 30 OR 40 PERCENT AT THE HIGHEST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SEASONAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOWS AND HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEEPENS THE NORTHERN CLOSED LOW...AND DIGS IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO AN EAST COAST LOW THAT IS DEEPER AND RIDES FARTHER UP THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF ANY UPPER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW AND ODDS WOULD FAVOR DRIER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD FLUSH OUT THE REMAINING CHILLY AIR AND BRING IN A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY NEARBY. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE ON THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AS PER THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL KEEP IT WARM ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL TRY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL GET RID OF ALL OF THE MVFR CEILINGS SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROUGH THE WIND COULD PICK UP FOR A FEW HOURS AND THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND DIRECTION WILL MAXIMIZE THE WIND/WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH WIND OR WAVES FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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