Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011714 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. ORIGINAL...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. FOR A CHANGE THERE ARE NO RETURNS ON THE RADAR. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS IN NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AREA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AS A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LACKING SO NOTHING MORE THAN BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A WARMER START THAN YESTERDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE ALSO SUPPOSED TO BE A TAD WARMER TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THEN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LIKELY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY BUT THINK THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL STICK WITH NO MORE THAN A 50 CHANCE. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY. THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING SO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BEYOND THAT TIME WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM TRENDING TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT STALLING OVER NRN OHIO WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE DEEPER TROUGH AS THIS HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT IF THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THEN WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FOR A FEW PERIODS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 80 IN NW OHIO/MID 70S FOR NE OHIO AND NW PA. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE SHRA/TSRA REACH OVERNIGHT? NAM SPREADS IT OVER ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE GFS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH PRECIP ONLY REACHING NW OH OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS BRING PRECIP INTO NW OH OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A MENTION OF VCSH ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY WITH WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KEC

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