Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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426 FXUS61 KCLE 120514 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1214 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT WITH SNOW BECOMING CONFINED MORE TO LAKESHORE AREAS AS THE FLOW BACKS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY. LOWERED MINS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TO SOME EXTENT. STILL NO PLANS TO ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE ZERO TO -10 RANGE. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TOMORROW FORECAST. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF SNOW UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO RAISED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY FOR INLAND AREAS. NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE CLEARLY DEFINED WNW SNOWBANDS OVER THE REGION...WITH AN ENHANCED HURON BAND OVER EASTERN ERIE PA COUNTY. DRIER AIR AND A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SW WILL HELP DECAY THE LAKE EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE SNOWBELT WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUDS...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF TO AROUND 5 MPH REDUCING THE WIND CHILL FACTOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE LAPSE RATES CLIMB. THE FIRST BAND WILL LIKELY CLIP LAKESHORE ERIE/ASHTABULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES IF THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. LOOK FOR HURON BANDS TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BEST ESTIMATES FOR THE EVENT IS AREAS IN ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD OF 8-12". OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PUSHING 20 TO 1 AT TIMES SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE WITH BANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS -10 OR LESS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING BELOW ZERO. WINDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE RELAXING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKELY. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WITH AN END OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT ONGOING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME BIG DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP...LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS. IF I HAD TO BET I WOULD SAY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE ALONG THE EAST COAST. TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF A PATTERN...THE MAIN LOW ENDS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SNOW CAN GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE COUNTIES FROM AROUND THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS COLDER MID WEEK AND SHOWS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY SNEAK UP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWING THE ARCTIC AIR SLIDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT ERI AT TIMES INTO FRI MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT BUT THE MORE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL JUST BE IN THE SNOWBELT. CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY DROP TO MVFR AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU AND REMAIN MVFR WELL INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT STARTS TO TAKE PLACE AT TOL AND FDY. VSBY`S WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE SNOWBELT THEN MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT ON MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON FRIDAY...INCREASING UP AROUND 30 KNOTS...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE WESTERN BASIN AND SHORE ICE INCREASE RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ014-089. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...KOSARIK

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