Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 132349 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 749 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front drifts southward along the vicinity of the Lake Erie shoreline later tonight through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure for the beginning of the weekend, followed by another cold front Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Much to consider with the near term forecast today. On the synoptic scale, broad upper level low over the inter mountain west generating surface low pressure on the lee side of the mountains near the panhandle of Oklahoma. Weak boundary extends from that surface low northeastward through the Great lakes and into eastern Ontario. This boundary will end up drifting southward tonight into Thursday morning, and stalling out in the vicinity of the southern shore of Lake Erie for most of Thursday. Activity begins in our CWA with the nose of a level jet pushing into northern Indiana and an associated convective complex triggered by PVA in the flow aloft, and aided by the aforementioned stationary front. Expecting this complex on the eastern end to spill into northwest OH after 09Z or so tonight, with the western zones getting clipped by potential thunderstorm activity, if not with showers. There are two important factors to consider with this early morning activity. First is the convective debris clouds, extent of their eastward spread, and the resultant effectiveness in stalling out the convective potential later that day by stifling the instability. The second will be any leftover convective outflow boundaries becoming the focus for later development when the atmosphere recovers. Do expect this recovery to happen at some point, but then we get into some of the convective parameters not perfectly lining up. The best axis for instability will be just south of the CWA, and will take some time before the eastern half of the CWA even gets into the favored area for this, likely after 18Z Thursday. The stationary front will make a slight push back northward as a warm front across the lake Thursday afternoon with the rapid approach of the surface low crossing the mid Mississippi Valley towards northwest Ohio. Later in the day, we get into a strengthening 850hPa jet along and ahead of the southern portion of front/surface low. Given the westerly 0-6km bulk shear vectors in the 50-60kt range, expecting a convective line to develop and track across the CWA. The uncertainty comes into play with the locations of the surface low/frontal boundary which some forecast models have a slightly further south placement which could make the preferred area for convection US 30 and south. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Models are good agreement with the frontal position from western New York to northeast Ohio to southwest Ohio Friday morning. Associated convection will be southeast of the forecast area by mid-morning Friday. However, post-frontal showers will persist through noon on Friday and on tapering off from west to east later Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain steady in the morning and slowly falling temps in the 40s due to cold air advection behind the cold front on Friday. Temps will continue to fall in mid 30s by Saturday morning. A temporary lull in precipitation will occur Friday evening and Saturday. A brief high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain above average in the mid-50s. A short wave in northwest flow will dive southeast across the Upper and Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. As a result, rain chances will increase across the forecast area. However, rainfall amounts will remain less than a tenth. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The approach of the main trough will allow winds to become northwest Sunday through Tuesday. This feature will keep thickness layers from increasing and keep temperatures cool and near-normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. In addition, sufficient moisture will yield mix precipitation on Sunday and scattered snow showers Sunday night across the snowbelt region. Colder temperatures, residual moisture, relatively warm lake waters, and winds becoming more northerly Monday will increase the chance of snow across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. There is still some uncertainty with amounts at this time and lake-effect snows will likely continue into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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VFR conditions prevail through the evening and overnight hours tonight before more active weather returns to the local area. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible during the morning, afternoon, and evening hours tomorrow. The first round of showers and storms will enter from the west to western terminals (KTOL/KFDY) between 10-13Z. Have -SHRA and reduced cigs/vis at those terminals tomorrow morning with VCSH mentions at other terminals between 13-16Z. Afternoon convection across the area remains possible and will likely be the window of time where the strongest storms are possible. However, convective potential hinges on morning activity and if there will be any leftover convective debris/cloud cover. Regardless, have another window of storms entering terminals from northwest to southeast between ~18-22Z. Light and variable winds across terminals this evening and overnight turn generally southerly while increasing tomorrow morning and afternoon. Winds less than 10 knots through ~18Z before winds increase to 12-15 knots sustained with gusts 20-25 knots through the afternoon and evening. Higher and isolated wind speeds and gusts are possible in stronger thunderstorms. Outlook...Non-VFR in TSRA/SHRA Thursday and Thursday night, and SHRA through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Marine conditions should remain quiet across the lake through the end of the week and even into the weekend. Marine headlines are possible with Small Craft late Saturday as southwest winds increase to near 20 knots, especially across the western basin of the lake. A cold front is expected to move east across the lake by Sunday with westerly of 15 to 20 knots. A northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots may persist into early week with Small Craft conditions remaining possible. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning and again Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...FZ AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...FZ

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