Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220541 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE PERIOD. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S MOST AREAS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. .OUTLOOK...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER THAN 20 KNOTS. LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES. SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HAVE SHORTENED THE DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FURTHER. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAYERS NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS SHORT TERM...MAYERS LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA

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