Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 200733 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 333 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. A cold front will cross the local area early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes will remain over the forecast area through the weekend. Upper level ridge will continue to build through the day. Only weather to contend with is cirrus moving up from the Mid Mississippi Valley. For highs just went a degree or two above ydy. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Well above normal temps continue as upper level ridge continues to build. Temps should warm into the mid 70s...which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Filtered sunshine with cirrus shield over the forecast area. The short term begins Saturday night with models showing surface high pressure near the mid atlantic coast. The region will remain under the influence of the high although to our west a cold front will extend from Minnesota to Oklahoma with moisture pooling in the central plains in southerly flow out of the Gulf coast region. Sunday morning the models remain in good agreement with the front from Wisconsin to Illinois to ern MO. From Sunday into Monday morning models show a short wave moving southeast out of the central Rockies and eventually forming a closed low in the AR/LA area. This in turn develops a surface low in the region effectively slowing the eastward progression of the front. This surface low will eventually move northeast through or east of the OH VLY Monday night or Tuesday spreading rain across the region however by this point model differences become more significant. For now will continue with general trend of chance pops west half late Sunday night and likely to categorical pops Monday and Monday night. Monday night into Tuesday a deep upper trough/low moves into the Great Lakes dropping 850mb temps to near zero. Would expect showers to continue everywhere due to the cold air aloft with enhanced activity off the lake. Highs Sunday in the mid 70s dropping to the upper 50s to near 60 Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weather will remain unsettled Tuesday night through late week as a deep upper trough moves east across the region. Most precip will likely be in the traditional snowbelt counties with cold flow off the lake although hard to rule out instability showers elsewhere with the cold air aloft. Highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Only cirrus shield to deal with today. Light SW winds will turn to the S by daybreak. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra Sunday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure over the region today will drift east to the coast by Sunday night. Expecting south to southwest flow 5 to 15 knots. Monday through Tuesday a cold front will cross the lake as low pressure moves north through the Ohio valley. Timing at this point remains uncertain given model differences. Winds however will turn west behind the front at 15 to 20 knots on Tuesday. No headlines expected near term however a small craft headline may be needed next Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB/TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...TK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.