Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 292345 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 745 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL STILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW OHIO HAS CREATED ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM THE MIDDLE OF LAKE ERIE SOUTHWARD TO MORROW COUNTY. THIS LINE HAS VARIED IN COVERAGE BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED POP RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL GET A QUICK TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE BUT WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT AS OF 2330Z LOOKS TO BE NEAR A DETROIT TO EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS LINE. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SNAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR BACK INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRONT HAS REACHED NORTHWEST OHIO AND A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS EXPECTED. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ONLY THE STORMS WITH THE BEST CORES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY. THE LIMITING FACTORS HAVE BEEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DISPLACED UPPER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...LIMITED SHEAR AND WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST MENTIONING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS FRONT TAKES A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT TO CROSS THE AREA. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 70 ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO GET PULLED BACK NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S WITH DAYTIME MIXING. A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE SITUATION. CLOUD COVER WILL RATHER SCANT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY. THAT HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. ALOFT WE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW...ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE WAS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TODAY THOUGH TO BE ABLE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO TEMPORARILY NUDGE A LITTLE CLOSER. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL UP IN THE AIR. GFS WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF MOVES SHORT WAVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE REASONABLE...THIS FAR OUT WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH TOLEDO. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM LORAIN SOUTH TOWARDS MANSFIELD. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF TOLEDO. BY SUNRISE ALL SITES SHOULD BE FEW TO SCT250. THURSDAY AFTERNOON NW FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE HURON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...BUT IF WINDS ANY STRONGER MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF CLE FOR THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HOVERING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...DJB

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