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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 091805
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD SO ONLY MINOR CHANGE PLANNED FOR
THE MORNING UPDATE. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHORE WHERE STEADY SNOW IS FALLING. CURRENT SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE ERIE TO GA
WITH A LARGE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH
MOST OF OHIO TO KY. KCLE RADAR HOURLY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOW
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO OVER 1.0 INCH PER HOUR SE OF TOL WHICH
MAY BE OVER DONE. EXPECT AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE WEST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH NEAR ERI.

HAVE SOME CONCERN AMOUNT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AND GREATLY DIMINISH SNOWFALL FOR A TIME. WILL EXAMINE THIS
CLOSELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND GETS WRAPPED UP INTO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SNOW COULD STILL
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...SO EVEN WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE
ENOUGH OF IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN LIKELY INTO FRIDAY
WITH MOST OF THIS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT BUT FLURRIES OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL
POSSIBLE WHEN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IFR SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING MAINLY TO MVFR VISIBILITY BUT
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR
ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIGHT WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF GALES LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKENS. A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ014-
     089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...BC