Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 052300 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 600 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure currently centered over Ohio will slide off to the east tonight. Low pressure moving across southeastern Ohio Tuesday will bring rain to the area from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. Dry conditions Wednesday will give way to much colder temperatures and lake-effect snow by the end of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Areas of partly cloudy skies that have developed will see higher level clouds increasing from sw to ne later in the night from system approaching from the sw. The breaks in clouds should allow lows to drop into a 28 to 32 degree range for most of the area then as the clouds thicken toward daybreak...temps should start to rise...especially in the south where there is a slight chance that rain cloud arrive by 7 am. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A surface low will move northeastward across southeastern Ohio during the day Tuesday with an attendant upper-level short wave lifting across the Great Lakes. This will bring a large swath of precipitation in from the south, arriving in Marion during the early-mid morning, Cleveland and Toledo near midday or so, and eventually to Erie by mid-afternoon. The latest models continue to slow down the initial onset of precipitation, so by the time it arrives, it should all be in the form of rain. A strong warm nose aloft should prevent any snow from mixing in. The rain will stick around much of the day, exiting all but far northeast Ohio by the late-evening/early overnight hours. General precipitation amounts of 0.2 to 0.4 inch are expected, with a little less across northwestern Ohio. Dry weather is expected for Wednesday ahead of the next storm. Colder air begins to filter in Wednesday night as an upper-level low moves across Ontario. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the mid-20s with high temperatures Thursday struggling to get out of the upper 20s in most locations. While there is a chance for a few snow showers across the entire area Thursday with a moist west to northwest flow and broad large scale lift, the main focus will be on the Snow Belt. Lake-effect snow will begin to develop Thursday as westerly winds combine with 850mb temps falling to -10 to -12C by Thursday evening and a relatively warm lake of 5 to 8C. Winds become more northwesterly Thursday night and lake-effect snow will continue into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term begins on Friday with models in good general agreement showing the upper trough moving east through Quebec and a cold moist northwest low level flow across the Great Lakes into Ohio. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast further supporting the WNW flow across the lakes. At 850mb models have temps -10 to -12c across the lake. Expect lake effect snow will be ongoing Friday morning and would expect this to persist through the day. By Friday evening the surface high builds into the lower Ohio Valley as the upper trough moves further east leaving more of a zonal flow across the region. Some question as to if the high will begin choking off the lake effect snow but for now 850mb temps still -12 to -14c so will continue with likely pops Friday night. Areas not downstream from the lake however will begin to dry out. Saturday the high moves east of the region, winds begin backing and warm advection begins. Lake effect still possible in the morning but for the afternoon expect winds will back to southwest and take any remaining snow showers off shore. Moisture will return from the south...mainly Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure moves into the western lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... MVFR cigs across the area will break and lift from the south beginning mid to late afternoon mostly between 21z to 00z south to north. Some question as to the redevelopment of stratus overnight but for now left out. Towards dawn Tuesday models have moisture returning from the south ahead of low pressure moving through the tennessee valley. Expect MVFR conditions in rain to overspread the area after about 14z with conditions likely dropping to IFR. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in rain/snow showers. Lake Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with non-VFR expected, especially across NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... Will allow small craft advisory to end as expected. Winds have been dropping through the afternoon and should remain below criteria. Tuesday the high over the Ohio valley will move east as low pressure moves across the northern Plains to the western lakes. Winds will back from south to east by Tuesday morning and persist through the day. A weak cold front will cross the lake west to east Tuesday evening turning winds west to southwest Tuesday night through Wednesday. Thursday deep low pressure will move across Quebec as high pressure fills the nations midsection. Winds will increase from the west and northwest Thursday to near 30 knots by evening. This will persist through Thursday night before dropping back into the 20s on Friday. Winds will taper to about 15 knots Friday night backing to southwest Saturday as high pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mottice NEAR TERM...Mottice/Adams SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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