Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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623 FXUS61 KCLE 291550 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1150 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the northern Great Lakes will build over the local area through Thursday evening . A weak cold front will cross the region on Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cloud cover has developed over parts of north central ohio, northeast ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. The clouds are lake enhanced. They should gradually decrease as we move through the afternoon and the boundary layer mixes. I will adjust the cloud cover to account for the current trends. Temperatures appear to be on track. Previous Discussion... The upper trough has moved off to the east. This will allow high pressure to build over the region from the northwest today. The small threat for showers is over across far NE OH and NW PA. The residual clouds over those areas should breakup by 12z. The area of mid level clouds over the western third of the area continues to shrink and should also be gone by daybreak. This will leave skies mostly sunny again today. Low levels will continue dry should there should be much less cumulus than yesterday. Eastern areas could be scattered for a few hours and that is about it. Guidance temps seem reasonable and will be followed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather will continue through Thursday evening as high pressure slides over the region. The surface ridge will be just east of the area by midday Thursday and this will allow warm air advection to return. Temps should get back to normal. The models continue to downplay rain chances for Friday with the frontal passage. The area will be moisture started so no more than a few widely scattered showers or storms are likely with the fropa. Best chances will be in the east. Since we`ve had chances in the forecast for days will not remove it but have lowers pops to around 30 most areas. Expect most of the area to remain dry. By Friday evening the rain chances will be over and the first half of the holiday weak is shaping up to be dry with seasonable temps. Have used a blend of guidance numbers for temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper pattern becomes somewhat more zonal for early next week...although the Great Lakes region retains a subtle northwest flow. A disturbance is expected to cross the lower Ohio Valley Monday while high pressure remains situated across the eastern Great Lakes. There is decent agreement amongst the models with this scenario. So our southern most counties...toward Marion and Mt. Vernon may get a shower/thunderstorm on the Holiday. This system will keep the heat away...and temperatures will be seasonable Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... There is still some stratocumulus drifting in from the lake this morning. Lakeshore obs are low end VFR and will go with that for the morning hours. Localized MVFR for a few hours this morning for inland nw PA and KYNG. Otherwise VFR for the rest of the day and tonight...with some afternoon new cumulus development. North- northwest wind around 10 knots today will go light/variable for tonight. High pressure will be building across the region through Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Wind and waves have subsided enough early this morning to allow the small craft advisory and beach hazards statement to expire. High pressure over the lake today...but east end may see a few 3 footers as winds back to the west before going light/variable tonight. Quiet weather for the lake Thursday. A cold front approaches for Friday. Have increased wind and waves for Friday. There is just enough of an uptick in wind surrounding the front...and likely also on the backside before the high fully builds in to have a short period of 4 footers across the east half of the lake. The high builds in for the remainder of the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Garnet SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman

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