Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 252305 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 705 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week. A cold front is expected to sag south to near Lake Erie on Thursday. The stationary front over the Ohio Valley will move back north as a warm front by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Update...Removed pops from se and adjusted cloud cover a small amount. otherwise no changes. original...Our weak cold front has essentially become a series of troughs. The first trough is south of Youngstown and Canton. The second trough seems back over Lake Erie as dew points remain rather high near Lake Erie. There is subsidence between the troughs with a warm layer aloft and not even much cumulus. Cannot totally rule out a shower near the south shore of Lake Erie as the trough/front comes onshore early tonight but not worth mentioning (less than 10 percent pop). It will take much of the night for the slightly cooler/drier air to filter in. Lows generally 65 to 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Most of the models slowly push the front/trough across southern Ohio on Tuesday, then south of the Ohio River by Wednesday. The surface high should be overhead by Tuesday night, then move east on Wednesday. The air mass is progged to be several degrees cooler at 850 mb on Tuesday but still the equivalent of mid/upper 80s for surface highs. Dew points will be lower though so we will lose the stickiness. The north wind will make it a bit cooler near Lake Erie on Tuesday. The models continue to drop a back door cold front to near Lake Erie on Thursday. At the same time, the old boundary tries to drift back north as a warm front. We could remain between systems in a relative lull but do not have that much confidence in the model frontal positions. Some of the models continue to generate a surface low on the warm front. The low may be driven by convective feedback and not going to play that card at the moment. Will continue with a forecast for "chance or slight chance" of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. There are still a lot of areas that could use the rain. It has become feast or famine on the rain lately. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Concerned surface front may be too far along to the se for that much of a rain threat so lowering pops for fri thru sat. Will maintain a small chc pop on sun as upper trough with some moisture present then trend toward drier conditions for mon as trough shifts east allowing upper ridging to start building into the area. Temps should run around or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Weak cold front slowly pushing se and should be out of the area by 00z. Small threat for shra/tsra will continue for a few more hours for mfd...yng and cak. Skies should become mostly clear and west winds to around 10 knots diminish tonight. The drier air at the surface will probably not push far enough south tonight to eliminate a late night fog threat for mfd...cak and yng. Tue should be mostly sunny with sct cu developing with daytime heating and a ne wind of 5 to 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog possible each morning. Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms on Friday. && .MARINE... WSW winds 10 to 20 knots with 2 to 4 foot waves in the east will diminish some tonight while winds veer to the nw. High pressure builds over the lake tue into tue night causing winds to become light and changeable. The models differ thu into sat so wind direction in question but with weak wx features winds should stay mainly 10 knots or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Adams

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