Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 031431 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 931 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW AND SLEET MIXING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IT APPEARS THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AND EXPAND. DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO RAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND IN THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS AND WILL SPREAD EAST SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL START AS SNOW AND THEN GO TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. THE TIMING OF GOING TO RAIN IS IN QUESTION. THE NEWEST GUIDANCE IS WARMING THINGS UP MUCH QUICKER THAN EARLIER. THIS MIGHT OCCUR BUT WITH THE GROUND SO COLD AND DEW POINTS SO LOW...THE TEMPERATURE MAY BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT THE RAIN MAY STILL BE FREEZING ON THE GROUND AND METAL SURFACES UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM TO 34 . NO CHANGE TO THE ADVISORIES WITH THE 6 AM UPDATE. AT LOCATIONS WELL INLAND THE TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE QUICKER THAN IN THE NORTH...THUS LESS SNOWFALL. THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE THAT HEAVY BUT UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE SLIPPERY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO DARK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TO START AND THEN START DECREASING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT GETS INTERESTING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAISED POPS SOME BUT IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR THURSDAY SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST AS THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUT THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 20C. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN. EXPECTING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER HALF AN INCH AND WITH SUCH A BRIEF WARM UP SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE MAY OCCUR IN THE NARROWER RIVERS AND STREAMS...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE JAM FLOODING. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A BAND OF MOISTURE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT PRECIP AND TEMPS MAY STAY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW TO OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUN BUT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING IN BY MON MORNING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS STILL SHOW GOOD MOISTURE NEAR LAKE ERIE SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC POPS THERE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SNOW...THEN SLEET AND FZRA TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON THEN CHANGE TO JUST RAIN AS TEMP WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO BE TAPERING OFF AT THE SAME TIME. THINK CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN THE MIXED PRECIP THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY WHILE BECOMING SW. SOME LLWS MAY OCCUR EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP LATER ON WED FOR MFD...CAK YNG AND MAYBE ERI AND CONTINUE WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN IMPROVE. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING WHILE TURNING SW THEN W OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UNTIL THU NIGHT TO MOVE ACROSS OH SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WED THRU THU THEN BACK TO SW FOR FRI. THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME FOR SAT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE SAT NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ002- 003. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.