Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 252208 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 610 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes region though Tuesday. A series of weak cold fronts will cross the local area the next couple of days. High pressure will build over the region for the middle part of the week but another storm system will impact the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated small convective cells possible next hour or two then focus shifts into mainly the snowbelt counties for the rest of the night as the latest in a series of upper level short waves drops se toward Lake Erie. Height fall with colder air aloft should start to support some lake enhanced shra for mainly the second half of the night. The increasing chc for shra in the snowbelt while the rest of the area become more stable will lead to a flip-flop in the cloud cover with the snowbelt becoming mostly cloudy later in the night while much of the rest of the area see the diurnal cumulus from this afternoon dissipate by late evening. Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s except upper 50s right along the lakeshore. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Should see more precip coverage on Monday than today and yesterday as yet another piece of energy moves across the area. This will cause a further dip in mid level temps resulting in more unstable air. Moisture will also be a tad better so will mention showers and possible thunder all areas tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Best chances in the south and west will be tomorrow evening as another slug of energy moves across central Ohio. Ridging will begin later Tuesday and western areas should be dry. Lingering showers will persist in the east into early evening. The surface ridge will move east of the area by daybreak Wednesday which with allow a warm up to begin. Wednesday should be dry and still think much of Wednesday night will also be dry especially if the new 12z models are correct. Have again lowered precip chances prior to 12z Thursday. Best chances by that time will be in the north. Highs both Monday an Tuesday will struggle to reach 70 degrees most areas. Have used a blend of guidance most of the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the surface high/upper ridge shift east, area will return to a more seasonable set up and with a frontal boundary draped across the lower Great Lakes/northern OH/PA, daily precipitation chances will need to be in the forecast. Depending on timing of impulses, there will be a lull between one lead wave Thursday and the next Friday night. But since this is far out yet, have generic likely precip chances for several periods. Precipitation chances finally dwindle behind the front as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Showers/isolated thunderstorms should remain confined to near ERI. Others will have VFR passing cumulus. After those cu fade this evening, expect mid clouds to overspread the area pre-dawn as the next shortwave aloft/weak surface trough approaches. Expecting VFR out of this too outside of showers/thunderstorms. Primary focus showers/ts for late tonight and Monday will be across the lake and into the traditional snowbelt counties in a lake enhanced scenario with cold temperatures aloft/relatively warm waters. West gusts will subside with sunset tonight and then pick back up again for Monday. OUTLOOK...Local non-VFR in showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Non-VFR possible again Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... Winds at their peak this afternoon across the central/eastern nearshore and will diminish after sunset. Believe the winds will stay below the 22 knot threshold across the western basin and have dropped that part of the small craft advisory early. Now small craft advisories are a likely bet again tomorrow across the entire stretch of nearshore waters with west-southwest flow of 20 to 25 knots. A cold front Monday night will bring winds around to the west- northwest. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and lower lakes to the mid Atlantic from Tuesday through Thursday. The next system will approach the Great Lakes for the weekend bringing summertime weather and a southwest flow to Lake Erie for Thursday into Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina/Adams SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman

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