Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250528 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1228 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP. DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS, NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ. THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S IN THE INLAND NE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA. ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER. FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DROPPING AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO SUNDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRUN THE TAF SITES IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO FAR SOUTH...ERI MAY ESCAPE THE EVENT WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA

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