Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 291550
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1150 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
High pressure over the northern Great Lakes will build over the
local area through Thursday evening . A weak cold front will
cross the region on Friday. High pressure will build over the
region Saturday and Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cloud cover has developed over parts of north central ohio,
northeast ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. The clouds are lake
enhanced. They should gradually decrease as we move through the
afternoon and the boundary layer mixes. I will adjust the cloud
cover to account for the current trends. Temperatures appear to be
The upper trough has moved off to the east. This will allow
high pressure to build over the region from the northwest today.
The small threat for showers is over across far NE OH and NW PA.
The residual clouds over those areas should breakup by 12z. The
area of mid level clouds over the western third of the area
continues to shrink and should also be gone by daybreak. This will
leave skies mostly sunny again today. Low levels will continue dry
should there should be much less cumulus than yesterday. Eastern
areas could be scattered for a few hours and that is about it.
Guidance temps seem reasonable and will be followed.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather will continue through Thursday evening as high
pressure slides over the region. The surface ridge will be just
east of the area by midday Thursday and this will allow warm air
advection to return. Temps should get back to normal. The models
continue to downplay rain chances for Friday with the frontal
passage. The area will be moisture started so no more than a few
widely scattered showers or storms are likely with the fropa. Best
chances will be in the east. Since we`ve had chances in the
forecast for days will not remove it but have lowers pops to
around 30 most areas. Expect most of the area to remain dry. By
Friday evening the rain chances will be over and the first half of
the holiday weak is shaping up to be dry with seasonable temps.
Have used a blend of guidance numbers for temps.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper pattern becomes somewhat more zonal for early next
week...although the Great Lakes region retains a subtle northwest
flow. A disturbance is expected to cross the lower Ohio Valley
Monday while high pressure remains situated across the eastern Great
Lakes. There is decent agreement amongst the models with this
scenario. So our southern most counties...toward Marion and Mt.
Vernon may get a shower/thunderstorm on the Holiday. This system
will keep the heat away...and temperatures will be seasonable Sunday
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
There is still some stratocumulus drifting in from the lake this
morning. Lakeshore obs are low end VFR and will go with that for
the morning hours. Localized MVFR for a few hours this morning for
inland nw PA and KYNG. Otherwise VFR for the rest of the day and
tonight...with some afternoon new cumulus development. North-
northwest wind around 10 knots today will go light/variable for
tonight. High pressure will be building across the region through
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated/scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.
Wind and waves have subsided enough early this morning to allow the
small craft advisory and beach hazards statement to expire. High
pressure over the lake today...but east end may see a few 3 footers
as winds back to the west before going light/variable tonight. Quiet
weather for the lake Thursday. A cold front approaches for Friday.
Have increased wind and waves for Friday. There is just enough of an
uptick in wind surrounding the front...and likely also on the
backside before the high fully builds in to have a short period of 4
footers across the east half of the lake. The high builds in for the
remainder of the weekend.