Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 070216 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1016 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT AND CROSSES NORTHERN OHIO ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW MOVE TO THE EAST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SW PA AS OF 02Z. STILL A BIT OF LIFT ON ITS NE SIDE WITH A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS JUST TOUCHING EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. BELIEVE THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE PLACED THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE MORNING ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. EXPECTING MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THAT MAY HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL APPROACH MID-80S IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE PUSHES THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND RAISED POPS IN THE FORECAST TO 50-60 PERCENT. IF TIMING HOLDS...THESE WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FARTHER. HOPEFULLY THE WARM FRONT IS NOT DRAPED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA FRI THRU MON WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF A WET PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN EVERY DAY. THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM BY THE WEEKEND BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL NOT BE COOL EITHER AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PROVIDE A BUFFER. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR THE MOST PART...SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EAST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EACH OF THE STORMS CAUSING NEW ONES TO DEVELOP. EXPECTING POSSIBLE FOG TO DEVELOP WHERE THE SHOWERS OCCURRED AND ADDED MVFR FOG IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS START TO PICK UP A BIT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DROPPING WITH TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU SAT IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SW FOR TUE AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE THEN SHOULD DRIFT BACK AROUND THE LAKE THU THRU SAT WHILE WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES SO THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY RUN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...ADAMS

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