Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 251630 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STILL SEEING SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR. MUCH OF THIS IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH TRACE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL LOOKS AS IF THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT SHOULD NOT GET VERY STRONG WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UNDER 500 JOULES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS NW OHIO THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOT RESULTED IN ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE/VERY BRIEF SHOWER. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR HEATING A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING NORTHWARD ON A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. AS THIS JET SHIFTS EASTWARD IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NW PA. STILL NOT SEEING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANY OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT IMAGINE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE HILLS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO COULD OCCUR. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING 80 DEGREES. HAVE EVEN NUDGED THE LAKESHORE AREAS UP TO NEAR 80 WITH THE SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY... DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER 12Z. LIFT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE EASTERN SITES...STARTING AT MFD/CLE AT 19Z AND REACHING ERI BY 23Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SOME BR OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP TODAY TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARNET NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...GARNET LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC/TK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.