Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240833 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 333 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS HAPPENS THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH. A BREAK WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS AND MAY BE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. ON MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH STRONG WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT IN THE COLD ADVECTION. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. && .MARINE...
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VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL. EXPECTING WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM. LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ003. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169. LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164. GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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