Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 202337 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 737 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST AND MERGE WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS HAVE NEARED OUR EASTERN BORDER AS OF 6 PM. PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT GO COMPLETELY NIL TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20/30 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ALSO THE DRY AIR THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY COVER IF NEEDED. RIGHT NOW HAVE CLOUDS TRYING TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. EVENING WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING THEM...FINDLAY...CLEVELAND...BURKE LAKEFRONT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE OR BE A TREND SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C BY MORNING AND LOWS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 1C ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD PUSH HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 ON TUESDAY WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ALMOST 750MB. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH BASED PARTLY CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING...BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. SECONDARY FRONTAL PUSH ARRIVES EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COOL AIR MASS AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -5C. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S IN NW PA BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL PUSH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO CLEAR OUT OF THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COULD DIP EVEN COOLER IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. ONE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS AS THE DAY APPROACHES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ALL LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD COVER EACH NIGHT. IF CLOUDS THIN ENOUGH THERE MAY BE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CEILINGS (040-060) WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN (30-39 KNOT GUSTS) ON TUESDAY FROM THE WSW. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES LIKELY TO REACH CRITERIA FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE AREA TO WESTERN NY. SO WITH THAT SAID WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FETCH MAY KEEP WAVES ELEVATED LONGER THAN CURRENT THINKING. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...MULLEN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.