Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232346 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...GARNET AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...GARNET

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