Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 292011 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 411 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front near the Ohio Valley will move north across the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Deepening low pressure over the plains will move north to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario on Tuesday. The associated cold front will move across the local area on Monday. Cooler and blustery weather will spread across the area behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... The clearing has been impressive across southern and central Ohio. Areas that had heavy rain and thunderstorms this morning had become mostly sunny, a sure sign of ridging aloft. The front is stubbornly far south though and it will take until Sunday morning to push north across the area. In the meantime, yet another wave has begin propagating eastward along the front. Showers and storms should slide across Indiana early tonight. Not sure how much activity will push across the forecast area later tonight given the increasing ridging, the best chance would be across northwest Ohio. Temperatures will not drop much and should begin to rise by morning, especially across the south. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s in the far south to the 40s north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The warm front will move north of the area on Sunday but the forecast may not be cut and dried. A leading short wave is progged to lift out across the midwest. If the warm front is still lingering over Lake Erie and convection fires along the front, the outflow from the convection could effectively push the front back south to the south shore of Lake Erie. This may be most likely toward Conneaut and Erie PA but may also occur elsewhere including Toledo given the falling pressures out west. A county or two inland from the lake, my suspicion is that the atmosphere will be capped. Isolated severe storms are not out of the question. Will not go all the way on the high temperature forecast near Lake Erie as compared to inland where it will become windy and quite warm with highs in the 80s Sunday afternoon. Once the wind picks up on Sunday, it will remain windy for a few days. The south wind will blow ahead of the cold front Sunday night into Monday and the southwest wind will blow behind the front on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front from early Monday morning into Monday afternoon east of I-71. As the cold advection and mixing increase, it may be as windy or windier on Tuesday. Too early to be definitive but I could see a wind advisory both Monday and Tuesday especially from around the I-71 corridor west across northwest Ohio. A few wrap around showers associated with the upper trough will spread across the area Monday night and could linger into Tuesday, especially across extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA. Temperatures will tumble by Tuesday with highs only in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wednesday should start off dry in most areas as a short-wave ridge moves overhead and a surface high moves in from the west. There could be a few lingering showers early in the period across northwest Pennsylvania as a trough moves away to the northeast. Models vary quite a bit starting Wednesday night. We will be dealing with a developing cut-off low across the Southern Plains that will most likely stall across the Southeast US somewhere. It is not surprising the models are struggling with this, but will lean slightly more towards the timing of the GFS as the ECMWF has a tendency to be a little fast with the timing of cut-off lows. This means a slight chance of showers late Wednesday afternoon, but any precipitation may very well hold off until Wednesday night. Rain chance will continue through Thursday afternoon as the low remains stalled off to our southwest with a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. An area of high pressure looks to move in from the northwest Friday, which would dry things out. Temperatures throughout the long range will be slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Rain is moving northeast across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early this afternoon. Expect this rain to move out of the area entirely by 20-21Z. Within the heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected. Western areas will likely clear to VFR later this afternoon, with MVFR/IFR conditions remaining most other locations. Everywhere drops back to MVFR/IFR conditions tonight with areas of fog. A warm front will lift north through the region Sunday morning into early afternoon. This will turn winds to the south and they will become gusty. VFR conditions expected everywhere except at KERI by 15-18Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots are ongoing this afternoon across the Western Basin of Lake Erie. Look for this winds to turn around more to the east and increase to 15 to 25 knots this evening into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect everywhere until tomorrow morning. Winds won`t pick up on the eastern half until around midnight or so. A warm front will lift north of the lake shore Sunday afternoon turning winds around to the southeast. Winds will continue to turn more southerly late Sunday night into Monday. Strong south to southwest winds are expected Monday, with even stronger westerly winds on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for these periods. Winds could approach gales on Tuesday, but the forecast currently keeps the winds just below gale criteria. Winds will weaken rapidly Tuesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Mottice AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Mottice

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