Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 272243 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 643 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the holiday weekend. Hot and humid conditions will support a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Sunday. A upper low will pass by the region Sunday Night with drier conditions early next week. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees with a drop in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Cumulus field is already starting to decrease in coverage this evening. Since there has not been a good low level focus for thunderstorms to develop on it has remained dry. Not even the lake breeze convergence has been enough to generate anything under the upper level ridging that is in place across the region. So at this point plan on keeping the dry forecast for tonight. Fewer clouds than last night and light winds should allow temperatures to dip a degree or 2 cooler than last night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will once again start off in the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. With no notable change in the thermal profiles we can expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Models indicate a moistening of the mid and lower levels sufficient to support scattered convection. Diurnal heating will quickly destabilize the environment and trigger pulse thunderstorms. The wind profiles do not show enough shear for organized convection so not anticipating severe storms. The scattered nature of the thunderstorms will mean a number of areas will receive little to no rain, while areas that are impacted could see moderate to briefly heavy rain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early in this period the models are in good agreement with weak ridging aloft over region with fair weather expected. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the week as the gfs builds a blocking ridge along the east coast and develops a slowly digging trough over the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile the ECMWF has a different solution with a more progressive active northern jet stream along the northern tier of states that moves a cold front across the region towards the end of the week. will use the blended guidance with minor adjusts. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR weather is expected through saturday afternoon with high pressure lingering to the east. Very light fog may develop near cak from 09-11z which could drop VSBY to 5sm. otherwise no restriction to VSBY is expected. Stable conditions persist so only expect an isolated shower or thunderstorm with peak diurnal heating. Outlook...isolated to scattered Non-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. brief MVFR possible in early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday from MFD to CAK and YNG. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions will prevail on lake erie as the region remains on the western edge of high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast. Weak southerly winds less than 10 knots can be expect though the weekend except during the saturday afternoon when a weak lake breeze may develop. A weak cold front will approach and cross the lake sunday night and monday with veering winds to westerly monday with generally 5-15 knots speeds. Weak high pressure will build over the lake tuesday and east of the lake wednesday. Winds will continue to veer to north and then easterly on wednesday. No small craft advisories are expected. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jamison NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Jamison LONG TERM...LaPlante AVIATION...LaPlante MARINE...LaPlante is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.