Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 052300
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
600 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
High pressure currently centered over Ohio will slide off to the
east tonight. Low pressure moving across southeastern Ohio Tuesday
will bring rain to the area from Tuesday morning into Tuesday
evening. Dry conditions Wednesday will give way to much colder
temperatures and lake-effect snow by the end of the week into the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of partly cloudy skies that have developed will see higher
level clouds increasing from sw to ne later in the night from system
approaching from the sw. The breaks in clouds should allow lows to
drop into a 28 to 32 degree range for most of the area then as the
clouds thicken toward daybreak...temps should start to
rise...especially in the south where there is a slight chance that
rain cloud arrive by 7 am.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low will move northeastward across southeastern Ohio
during the day Tuesday with an attendant upper-level short wave
lifting across the Great Lakes. This will bring a large swath of
precipitation in from the south, arriving in Marion during the
early-mid morning, Cleveland and Toledo near midday or so, and
eventually to Erie by mid-afternoon. The latest models continue to
slow down the initial onset of precipitation, so by the time it
arrives, it should all be in the form of rain. A strong warm nose
aloft should prevent any snow from mixing in. The rain will stick
around much of the day, exiting all but far northeast Ohio by the
late-evening/early overnight hours. General precipitation amounts
of 0.2 to 0.4 inch are expected, with a little less across
Dry weather is expected for Wednesday ahead of the next storm.
Colder air begins to filter in Wednesday night as an upper-level
low moves across Ontario. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be
in the mid-20s with high temperatures Thursday struggling to get
out of the upper 20s in most locations. While there is a chance
for a few snow showers across the entire area Thursday with a
moist west to northwest flow and broad large scale lift, the main
focus will be on the Snow Belt. Lake-effect snow will begin to
develop Thursday as westerly winds combine with 850mb temps
falling to -10 to -12C by Thursday evening and a relatively warm
lake of 5 to 8C. Winds become more northwesterly Thursday night
and lake-effect snow will continue into Friday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term begins on Friday with models in good general agreement
showing the upper trough moving east through Quebec and a cold moist
northwest low level flow across the Great Lakes into Ohio. At the
surface, high pressure will extend from the Northern Plains to the
Gulf Coast further supporting the WNW flow across the lakes. At
850mb models have temps -10 to -12c across the lake. Expect lake
effect snow will be ongoing Friday morning and would expect this to
persist through the day. By Friday evening the surface high builds
into the lower Ohio Valley as the upper trough moves further east
leaving more of a zonal flow across the region. Some question as to
if the high will begin choking off the lake effect snow but for now
850mb temps still -12 to -14c so will continue with likely pops
Friday night. Areas not downstream from the lake however will begin
to dry out. Saturday the high moves east of the region, winds begin
backing and warm advection begins. Lake effect still possible in the
morning but for the afternoon expect winds will back to southwest
and take any remaining snow showers off shore. Moisture will return
from the south...mainly Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure
moves into the western lakes.
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
MVFR cigs across the area will break and lift from the south
beginning mid to late afternoon mostly between 21z to 00z south to
north. Some question as to the redevelopment of stratus overnight
but for now left out. Towards dawn Tuesday models have moisture
returning from the south ahead of low pressure moving through the
tennessee valley. Expect MVFR conditions in rain to overspread the
area after about 14z with conditions likely dropping to IFR.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in rain/snow
showers. Lake Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with
non-VFR expected, especially across NE OH/NW PA.
Will allow small craft advisory to end as expected. Winds have
been dropping through the afternoon and should remain below
criteria. Tuesday the high over the Ohio valley will move east as
low pressure moves across the northern Plains to the western
lakes. Winds will back from south to east by Tuesday morning and
persist through the day. A weak cold front will cross the lake
west to east Tuesday evening turning winds west to southwest
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Thursday deep low pressure will
move across Quebec as high pressure fills the nations midsection.
Winds will increase from the west and northwest Thursday to near
30 knots by evening. This will persist through Thursday night
before dropping back into the 20s on Friday. Winds will taper to
about 15 knots Friday night backing to southwest Saturday as high
pressure moves through the Ohio Valley.