Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011608 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S. BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL. LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL. BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN THROUGH SUNRISE. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY

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