Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271738 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1238 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will track east through the Ohio valley today as high pressure settles off the Atlantic coast. Low pressure will develop over the central Plains Monday night and track into the upper Midwest Tuesday, lifting a warm front through local area the area. The low will track into Quebec Wednesday bringing a cold front east through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No significant changes for the 930 update. With temps already into the lower 40s bumped up temps in the south a couple of degrees for this afternoon and removed all mention of rain/snow. Original discussion... Upper level disturbance will skirt across the Ohio valley today. This may bring some precip chances to southern areas today, mainly in the mid morning through early afternoon hours. Forcing and moisture looks marginal across the area, with the better chances for precip along the I-70 corridor. Will continue to maintain a slight chance and perhaps very low chance pops today across the southern third of the forecast area. Clouds cover will slowly build north across the area through the day, especially across the southern half of the area , with perhaps a thinner cloud deck and some more sun along and north of a Findlay to Erie, PA line. Kept high temperatures today fairly close to MOS guidance, leaning toward the warmer MET, especially north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Active short term period begins warming temps across the area, as developing low pressure over the central Plains and large ridge centered over the western Atlantic brings return flow regime and stout WAA into the lower Great Lakes. This will allow for temperatures to approach 60 degrees across most locations Tuesday. Maintained chance to likely pops across the area late tonight through Tuesday as models continue to support rain shower chances as the low approaches the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front through the area. Some thunder is possible, especially Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night in the warm sector, so kept with a chance thunder mention in the grids. The low will track through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night with a developing low along the attendant cold front west of the area. This front is expected to push through the area during the day on Wednesday. Will maintain thunder chances and cat pops after midnight Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday. Falling temperatures behind the front will support a changeover to snow across much of the area by Thursday morning. Best chances for precip will be across northeast Ohio and northwest PA. Lake effect may linger across the snow belt through the day on Thursday, with 850mb temps dropping to -13C, lingering synoptic moisture and a period of west-northwest flow. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s on Thursday. Models still hinting at a clipper system tracking somewhere through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions Thursday afternoon and night. Differing solutions with respect to track and intensity of the low precludes anything more than high chance pops at this point for Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term begins Friday with both the GFS and ECMWF showing an upper trough across the eastern lakes and a surface high centered in Missouri. Models show 850mb temps around -14c which will be low enough to generate some lake effect snow showers. GFS forecast sounding on Bufkit showed a period of moderate instability on Friday. During the day however the surface high will be building and winds will be backing. Will however have snow showers likely in the snow belt through the morning hours dropping to chance pops for the afternoon. Friday night into Saturday the high moves to the sern coast opening up the area to warm advection on the back side of the high. Models trying to generate overrunning moisture across the lakes extending into northern Ohio and NWRN PA. For now however prefer to keep forecast dry as this could end up being just a swath of mid/upper level moisture as the approaching surface low will be quite a distance away in south central Canada. The next significant chance of precip will come Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves across the northern plains into the western lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
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VRF CIGs will stick around all day and through much of tonight. Scattered showers will develop across western terminals first late tonight into early tomorrow morning and then spread eastward, lowering CIGs to MVFR. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the coverage of showers, so went with a Prob 30 for possible IFR conditions for now. OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in -shra and -tsra. Rain will turn to snow Wednesday night in non- VFR conditions. Non-vfr possible again Thursday night and Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Today high pressure will move east off the east coast as a cold front turns stationary across the northern/central lakes. Tuesday developing low pressure over the central plains will move northeast into southern Wisconsin. A warm front will move north into Ohio and approach the west end of the lake. The front will lift north of the lake Tuesday night followed by a trailing cold front on Wednesday night. Would anticipate the need for another small craft advisory Wednesday afternoon/night as winds turn west and then northwest behind the front. Advisory will likely last into Thursday. Another low will cross the lake Friday possibly bringing advisory conditions back to the lake.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...TK

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