Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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704 FXUS61 KCLE 100856 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 356 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS EXPECTED THE SNOW ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 03Z. STILL SEEING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMS SINCE MIDNIGHT APPEAR TO BE UNDER AN INCH WITH STORM TOTALS MAINLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS SO FAR. THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE. DO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SNOW INTO INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW BLOSSOMING AFTER 18Z OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SNOWBELT WHERE THE HEADLINES CONTINUE. THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO MAKE SURE THEY DON`T APPROACH ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLACES LIKE TRUMBULL AND MAHONING COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES BY 00Z AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS IS WAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS SO SEE NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE THERE EITHER. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING AS SATURATED AIR FINALLY REACHES THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED SO EXPECTED THE WORST OF THE EVENT TO BE TONIGHT. LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE ACT LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME THE GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE WARNING STATEMENT THAT JUST WENT OUT. AGAIN...THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PERIPHERAL AREAS TO MAKE SURE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE NOT NEEDED. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE UP THE LAKE FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST IN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 TEMPS POSSIBLE GETTING TO NEG 25 OR COLDER. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER LAKE HURON FETCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AIRMASS THIS COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BIG RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GO UP SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. IT DEVELOPS AN EAST COAST LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TAKING A SOUTHERN LOW AND BOUNCING IT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EAST COAST BUT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AN EAST COAST LOW. THE CMC ALSO HAS A SOUTHERN LOW BUT IT STAYS PRETTY FAR SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOW...JUST NO CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNTS/DURATION YET. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 9-10Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT ERI BEFORE DECREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AFTER 14Z WITH AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT TOL/FDY/ERI. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR MOST LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. && .MARINE... BRISK WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY BUT ACCRETION RATES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012- 089. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013- 014. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002- 003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KOSARIK

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