Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 180754 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 354 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK OR SHOULD I SAY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATE. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE CURRENT AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO I DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION SUPPRESSING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DRY AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS WELL AND WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD SO NOT EXPECTING DRASTIC DROPS IN TEMPERATURES. AS HIGH PUSHES EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS BY SATURDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW. UNFORTUNATELY...WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY SHIFTING TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER DIRECTION AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 850MB COLD POOL WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE EMCWF AND GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2C OVER NW PA THAT MORNING SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE IF THIS AIR MASS VERIFIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO WESTERLY...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW BELT ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY COOL. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLEARING BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT A FEW OF THE MORE LIKELY TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF IFR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH YNG IS MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ON THURSDAY WITH SCT AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS IN THE 4-5K RANGE. OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA. VFR RETURNS BY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER TO EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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