Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCLE 211546 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1046 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS DECREASE ANY AND WILL THE SPRINKLES CONTINUE. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. INCLUDED THAT IN THE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. CONTINUED THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE RADAR UPSTREAM AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WOULD BE MOVING THROUGH.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL PA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60 PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE MODELS. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOSTLY MINOR AVIATION ISSUES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH A FEW IFR PATCHES OF STRATUS DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. CLEAR PATCHES OF SKY ACROSS NW OHIO SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE WILL BE FOG DEVELOPING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON HOW DENSE THE FOG MIGHT BE BUT IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES. OUTLOOK...MVFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY TR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER. THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
