Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191707 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 107 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED ON THE NOON METARS AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO THE SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER. FOR SUNDAY THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO -4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET... PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY

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