Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290433 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A FEW OF THE LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...KEC MARINE...OUDEMAN

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