Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 111448 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 948 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will track across the lower lakes tonight dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday and continue through Wednesday afternoon. A second clipper will track across the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Snow to the east has exited with maybe just a flurry possible through midday. To the west across MI light snow has begun to fall. Some of this will make it into Toledo during the late morning/early afternoon, but not last very long as this area of precip is expected to lift northeast. Highs may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will stick with the lower 30s. Will be looking closely at the upcoming system for decisions on headline changes/additions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Continued the winter snow watch for the inland snowbelt through Wednesday afternoon. Models continue in good agreement tracking low pressure system, currently located ND/MN border, across the lower lakes tonight forcing an arctic front across the area. Widespread light snow will spread across the entire forecast area tonight, with up to 2 to 4 inches possible higher elevations of the snowbelt. Could see a lull late Tuesday morning, but expect snow to intensify Tuesday afternoon as a strong upper level short wave sweeps across the lake. The short term begins Tuesday night with models in good agreement showing low pressure in northern NY and arctic air plunging into the region in northwest flow behind the system. There will be ongoing lake effect snow across northeast Ohio and northwest PA and it should continue heavy at times through the night. Many positives including extreme instability 850mb to the lake (BUFKIT), deep moisture and favorable dendrite growth. Negatives include a short fetch and a quick transit time with boundary layer flow at 40 knots. Expect a multiband event with orographic lift a significant contributing factor. Will have accums Tuesday night roughly 5 to 7 inches. Models pull moisture east of the area during the morning Wednesday but overrunning moisture ahead of next low approaching Chicago at 00Z Thursday will be increasing from the west during the afternoon. Expect lake effect snow to decrease through the late morning and early afternoon as moisture moves east however lake effect may pick up again as winds turn more westerly and moisture increases again late afternoon. Will have roughly 2-4 inches for the day. Wednesday night and Thursday low pressure will move east across the area. Will have likely pops across the snowbelt and chance pops elsewhere Wednesday night. Thursday chance to slight chance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday through Sunday will be dominated by two system. The first low moves east across the central lakes Friday. Enough moisture gets into the region for chance pops north/northeast. The second system moves east across the northern lakes Saturday pulling warmer and drier air into the region Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs friday 28 to 32. Highs Saturday and Sunday upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... A trough over lake Erie will push south of the forecast area this morning. The heaviest snow will be across the snowbelt east of CLE. Will get a break toward daybreak. OUTLOOK...-sn likely tonight into Tuesday morning area wide as as an Alberta Clipper swings across the forecast area. Lake effect snow will develop across the snowbelt East of Cle Tuesday and continue into Wednesday night. Another Alberta CLipper is due Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... Will allow the small craft advisory to expire at 4am but will issue a gale watch for Tuesday 10AM through Tuesday evening 10PM. Low pressure will deepen as it moves east across the long axis of the lake Monday night. Tuesday strong cold advection will spread in behind the low as 925mb flow increases to 40 to 45 knots. With the cold advection would expect an efficient momentum transfer so will take winds to gales Tuesday morning and continue through Tuesday evening. Expect small craft headlines will then be required through Wednesday evening or so for slowly diminishing northwest flow. Thursday through Thursday night expect winds 15 knots or below. Friday southwest flow will increase to around 20 knots by the end of the day. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ013-014. PA...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LEZ145>149-165>169.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman SHORT TERM...DJB/TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...TK

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