Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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200 FXUS61 KCLE 111525 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1025 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS DEFINITELY DRIER AIR WORKING AGAINST THEM. WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE HAVE HUNG ON TO THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER WEST LONGER TODAY. WE WILL NOT BE IN THE ENDING PHASE UNTIL CLOSER TO THIS EVENING WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS RAPIDLY DROP. HAVE ALLOWED CUYAHOGA ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. DEBATED ON WHETHER TO DROP THE REST OF THE OHIO HEADLINES...BUT WILL WATCH IT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. NW PA ON THE OTHER HAND WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD BAND WITH HURON CONNECTION POTENTIAL AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE 4 PM EXPIRATION IS OK. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM LORAIN COUNTY INTO MEDINA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST ACCUMS TODAY WILL ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE NUISANCE SNOW. SOME CLEARING IS ONGOING IN NW OHIO BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN AND EXPECTING MAINLY A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SOME FLURRIES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALSO REACH NW OHIO. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS ALL AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR THOSE WANTING WARMER WEATHER YOU ARE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WILL END THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS AN 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. IF WINDS LESSEN TEMPS COULD GET REALLY COLD. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND AS A CLIPPER WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A GENERAL LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER ISN`T OVERLY MOIST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT A RENEWAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. A HURON BAND COULD GET SET UP ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE SNOW MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE ONGOING CURRENT EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN END THE SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS WILL ONLY BRING IN CHANCES POPS BY 12Z MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE FLOW TO BEGIN NEXT WORK WEEK. BASICALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS SIMILAR THE TRACK AND TIMING OFF SO DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF SNOW. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST...FINALLY REACHING NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. BY WEDNESDAY ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING IN. MOST LOCATIONS NOT IN THE SNOWBELT WILL PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MARINE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN PUSHING 30 KNOTS. WILL SEE A QUICK BREAK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BUT NEXT ARCTIC BLAST DUE IN ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -24C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY WINDS CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT THIS POINT THE LAKE IS PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012-089. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ013-014. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ002-003. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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