Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230144 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM. OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY. THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA

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