Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 141946 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING. THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA. HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW PA. CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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