Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 292320 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 720 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION FOR THE EVENING IS MOVING EAST OUT OF NW PA ALONG WITH MOISTURE AXIS. DIURNAL CU FADING ACROSS OHIO. WILL CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S. HAVE TWEAKED THE HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LINE WITH NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z-22Z AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. FLOW OFF OF COOL LAKE ERIE IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN COOLED AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESS THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME RATHER ZONAL BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE SOUTH FLOW RETURNS AND WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE A LOW POP ON FRIDAY AND IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE A BIT COOLER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECTING NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP INLAND BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE ANY WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND ON SUNDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE FICKLE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE SO MARINERS THAT HAVE BOATING PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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