Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011812 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 112 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ALL LOCATIONS. HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CAUSE IMPACTS WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF HEAVIER SNOW BUT BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE END TIMES FOR THE ADVISORIES WITH THE WESTERN PORTION ENDING AT 00Z AND THE EAST ENDING AT 09Z. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION PROVIDING THEM WITH A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW INTO THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003- 006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KEC MARINE...LOMBARDY

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