Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231814 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 214 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will deepen as it moves north across the Great Lakes today into tonight pulling a strong cold front across the area. The low will slowly move north into Ontario on Tuesday and a trough of low pressure aloft and at the surface will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will slide across the area on Thursday. The next cold front will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Temperatures will hold steady or drop a degree or two as rain begins and have adjusted temperatures this afternoon. QPF amounts will likely be lower than expected but otherwise the forecast remains on track. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... Waiting for the wave of low pressure on the front to move north in conjunction with the upper low that is opening up and lifting out. The front and rain will be slow to move east until the wave passes. In the meantime we will continue to see a dry down slope southeast flow. Eventually the upper dynamics and deep moisture will win out and rain will overspread the area, especially this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a lightning strike somewhere as the stronger upward motion crosses the area but will not specifically mention thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will shift north and east of the area tonight. Temperatures will warm to around 70 in most areas before the rain arrives and some sections of NE OH and NW PA will climb into the lower and mid 70s, the last of the warm weather. The low level jet will increase today, especially as the surface low begins to deepen as it moves north into the Great Lakes later today and tonight. The atmosphere is warm and relatively stable now but as the rain showers arrive the downward transfer of wind will be efficient and the south to southeast wind will be enhanced especially in the downslope areas. The increase in the low level jet should occur just as the showers arrive at Erie County, PA later this afternoon and evening and there is potential for 40-45 knot wind gusts there. Will issue a wind advisory for Erie County, PA for late afternoon into tonight. Elsewhere across northeast OH and northwest PA wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are likely. We will have to watch for stronger wind gusts with the passage of the cold front from west to east this evening. Almost as fast as the first upper low lifts out, a second strong short wave is progged to drop into the trough and close off. This will probably push a few more showers across the area on Tuesday along with significantly cooler air. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The low across the Great Lakes will continue to fill and open through mid week and as another potent and digging trough approaches for the second half of the week. Some showers will remain in the cool cyclonic flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the work week and it will definitely feel it. With still a bit of a breeze and sub-zero H8 temps, have lowered highs to just a few degrees on either side of 50. Ridging will be brief on Thursday and a warm front will lift north across the area helping slightly to dig us out of the thermal trough. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another push of cold air arrives for the weekend as shortwave energy digs a sizable trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There still is some spread in the timing of the cold front, but it looks to fall sometime on Friday with showers developing overhead. The cold air behind this system is colder and surges with two waves to round out the weekend. It is still to far out to know what the precipitation potential may be. Have some precip mentioned through the weekend. Left it as all rain for now. Highs fall back around 50 again, but a day topping out in the mid/upper 40s is entirely possible. Lows will be in the 30s away from the lake this weekend, especially the second half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Low pressure over northern Indiana will deepen rapidly this evening as it continues north into Michigan. Rain continues to fill in across the area although may not be as steady as previously expected, especially across northwest Ohio. A strong low level jet with near 50 knots at 925mb has developed across NE OH/NW PA. Have included a mention of low level wind sheer for a few hours this afternoon at NE Ohio sites where surface winds will only have intermittent gusts with rain having a stabilizing effect on the boundary layer at times. All sites could see MVFR conditions at times in moderate rain. Showers will decrease in coverage tonight as a dry slot wraps overhead but a few showers remain possible. SE winds will shift to the southwest winds the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts to 30 knots possible with the frontal passage except at ERI where gusts could approach 40 knots both ahead of and with the front. MVFR to VFR conditions with scattered showers continue into Tuesday as the upper trough moves into NW Ohio. OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR in rain showers through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Unsettled conditions expected on the lake much of the week. Small craft advisory conditions will begin later this afternoon as low pressure across the lower Ohio Valley deepens considerably and tracks north-northeast to northern lower MI by this evening. South- southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and then to 30 knots for tonight. Winds will be between 20 and 30 knots for much of the time from tonight through Wednesday. Wednesday winds become more westerly and a brief ridge works across the Ohio Valley. Will need to monitor closely for the potential for Gales over the next couple of days. There are a few times from now through Wednesday that the lake could touch Gales, but so far that looks to be more the case across the Canadian waters. Gale force gusts likely. For the end of the week southwest winds increase again for Thursday and Friday with a northern Plains/northern Great Lakes low track. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>145.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...KEC/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Oudeman

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