Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 312340 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...THIS TIME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST SW OF FORECAST AREA. SINCE STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSRA SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FORECAST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... CUMULUS WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POP UP SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE VERY SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. IN GENERAL UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SMALL CUT OFF VORT MAX/EDDY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POPPING UP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MAYBE COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WITH NOTED FEATURE ALOFT. MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA...ESSENTIALLY RETROGRADING IT WESTWARD. THIS WILL TAKE A BACKDOOR LIKE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL ACTUALLY HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT WITH THIS IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WITH MID/UPPER 80S...BUT WONDER IF IT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WITH A LITTLE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE ONLY WRINKLE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A SMALL TROUGH THAT APPEARS AT 500 MB ON FRIDAY. IT SEEMS TO EVOLVE AS A TROUGH THAT CREEPS IN UNDER THE RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE IS TOPPING THE RIDGE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A WEAK FEATURE BUT IT DOES APPEAR ON ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS. GIVEN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE... WILL INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY. IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS IT COULD LINGER IN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE ALOFT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE WELL IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN THE 8-12Z WINDOW WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SHALLOW INVERSION. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SITES COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT OCCURRENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAT 5 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT CLE/ERI TUES AFTERNOON WHERE A WEST NORTHWEST LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE/OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND EACH DAY/NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ON LAKE ERIE. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK AND WIND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ONSHORE WIND IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KOSARIK

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