Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271057 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 657 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is weakly in place across the region. A cold front will sag south across the Great Lakes on Thursday and stall across Ohio for Friday and Saturday. High pressure will then ease into the area on Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure in place and much drier conditions with dewpoints in the upper 50s will make for a comfortable summer day. Not expecting any precipitation. Batch of mid clouds skirting the southern tiers of counties from the overnight will shift east early and yield a mostly sunny day. Some fair weather cumulus for the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s with a few places hitting 90 today. Only tweaked hourly temperatures first thing this morning with this early morning update.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As is the case this time of year...features are not overly strong and therefore timing and confidence in areal coverage are not that high. But for the period from Thursday through Saturday night we will have some chance for rain. We will benefit from weak troughing across the Great Lakes and the cooler temperatures aloft and less of a cap than we have had in the recent past. But forcing is weak. There is decent agreement amongst the models on the weak front sagging south across Ontario to northern Ohio on Thursday/Friday and lingering somewhere across Ohio through Saturday. This boundary would be the primary focus for showers/thunderstorms. This still only give a very broad period of 30 to 50 percent chances to work with...but hopefully with time the precip chances can be refined. Start precip chances Thursday morning. There is a chance that it could be a little earlier...but counting on the recent trend that these fronts are slow to move and the dry atmosphere in place. Thursday morning may end up being too early. Better chances arrive for late Thursday night through Friday. The ECMWF lingers this chance into Saturday with a weak low riding the front. Temperatures will be seasonable and will stick with mid/upper 80s for Thursday and a few degrees cooler for Friday and Saturday. Night lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A broad trough will be over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region on Sunday to start the extended forecast. High pressure at the surface will be located north of Lake Erie with a weak frontal boundary in place across the Ohio Valley. Energy aloft may kick off some thunderstorms, with best chances in the southeastern counties before we start to dry out on Monday. The ridge aloft expands eastward overhead from Monday into Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and a warming trend. Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday then climb back into the mid and upper 80s as we move through the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle. An area of clouds in the 5-10K range has moved into MFD and will spread east during the overnight hours, with some ceilings below 12K arriving at both CAK and YNG. Otherwise skies are expected to be mostly clear after 12Z with light winds of 10 knots or less. Lake breezes will develop at CLE/ERI and may extend as far inland as MFD/CAK/YNG this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday and early morning BR. && .MARINE... Lake breezes will develop this afternoon with high pressure overhead. A weak frontal boundary is expected to push south across Lake Erie Thursday afternoon with northeasterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots on Thursday night. Waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet. High pressure will be located north of the lake from Friday through the weekend with good marine conditions. Winds will remain out of the east or northeast near 10 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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