Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 281723 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1223 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST THING THU MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM LAKES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO START POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST AS VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 11Z AT KTOL/KFDY AND TO KCLE BY 14Z. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY EVENING IN MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO. THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...TK MARINE...MULLEN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.