Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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230 FXUS61 KCLE 311940 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 340 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front to our north will drop south across the area this evening. The front will continue to the Ohio River and stall overnight. Meanwhile low pressure in North Dakota will move into Ontario forcing the front back across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening. A trailing cold front will follow on Thursday. High pressure will build into the area Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front to our north will drop across across the area this evening. The airmass is dry and stable to no precip is expected. Otherwise only cirrus across the area late this afternoon yielding filtered sunshine. Expect this cirrus to persist into the night before thinning so will go with partly cloudy wording most places. guidance temps from the low and mid 50s northeast to 55 to 60 elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Wednesday morning will begin with the cold front now stalled near the Ohio river. The airmass across the area should be dry so will begin with partly cloudy skies. As the day wears on however, low pressure will move out of the Dakotas and into SWRN Ontario driving the front back north as a warm front. Expect the front back into or near the swrn cwa counties from KMNN to KFDY by evening with moisture increasing in the west during the afternoon ahead of the boundary. During the afternoon expect clouds to increase in the west. Will need to include a chance pop far west late afternoon as moisture increases and the front nears but expect most will remain dry until Wednesday night as moisture continues to increase in advance of an approaching cold front. The front should move into the northwest Thursday morning and move east across the area during the day...the precip...along and ahead of the boundary. For the western half of the area will have likely pops Wednesday night...increasing to categorical east late. Will begin Thursday with categorical pops east and chance pops west, decreasing from the west during the day as high pressure and drier air begin to move in. The front will be slowing Thursday so will need to hold onto chance pops through the evening east before drying our overnight. Friday high pressure builds in from the west so expect pc skies and temps a few degrees cooler. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 80s. Highs Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Friday in the mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Near seasonal temperatures can be expected on Saturday before an upper level trough arrives bringing below normal temperatures to start next week. Long range models show an upper level trough moving through the northwest flow aloft and setting up over the eastern Great Lakes for the extended portion of the forecast. Temperatures on Saturday may be impacted by increasing mid and high cloud ahead of the trough but will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. Did introduce a chance of showers and thunderstorms into western areas for the afternoon but expect it will take until Saturday evening for chances of precipitation to reach the eastern areas. A broad area of low pressure at the surface will move east across the Great Lakes region pulling a cold front across the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday should still reach the lower 70s before eastern areas drop back into the 60s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation timing from Sunday on will be highly dependent on shortwave energy moving around the upper trough and will need to be resolved better in later forecasts.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... High pressure located north of the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather and VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Scattered cu field will be in place this afternoon near 5k feet at CAK/YNG with broken deck of cirrus. North to northeast winds of 10 knots or less will slowly shift around to the east then south by Wednesday afternoon. The exception to this will be near Lake Erie where lake breezes can be expected again on Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR Thursday then again Saturday night into Sunday with shra and possible tsra. && .MARINE...
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Light northeast winds on Lake Erie will become more easterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday as high pressure located north of the lakes builds east into Quebec. The longer fetch down the lake will contribute to wave heights building to near 3 feet on the central portion of the lake. Winds will veer around to the south on Wednesday night and eventually southwest with the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday and start to shift east on Saturday.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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