Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241637 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1237 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control across the area through tonight. The region will be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, Tuesday through Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Adjusted the hourly temperature curve early this afternoon across the area, as temps are warming faster than most guidance indicates due to deeper mixing. Went close to the HRRR hourly temps for the rest of the afternoon. As mixing continues and northeast flow picks up through the afternoon, marine layer should mix inland from Toledo to Lorain southeast towards Findlay and points north, which should curtail/slow diurnal temp rise mid/late afternoon in northwest Ohio. Original Discussion... Clear skies will continue through today with temperatures warming up into the 70s most areas, except along the lakeshore. East to northeast winds along the lake shore will keep temperatures here cooler. Winds will shift around to the southeast this evening into tonight and stay that way through Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today with a partly cloudy sky. Northwest Pennsylvania and extreme eastern Ohio could see a shower or two Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as a low passes well off to the east. Expect cloudier conditions in these areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the lower and middle 50s, with afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows Wednesday night will only fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. An area of low pressure will cut across the Great Lakes Thursday. This will bring an associated cold front through the area sometime Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. The slower trend with the timing of the cold front continues, so have continued to trim back the onset of precipitation. Can`t rule out a stronger storm Thursday, especially if the timing of the front slows down any further. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models are struggling with the development of a large upper level trough that will deepen over the southern Rockies for the end of the week into the weekend. Hard to have much confidence in the timing since many times these systems are ejected eastward across the Plains way too fast. For now will go with some better chances of showers/thunderstorms as a warm front lifts across the region Friday night into Saturday. Thunderstorms would then be isolated/scattered in nature on Sunday until the cold front arrives on Monday. However keep in mind that this timing may be way too early for the thunderstorms. Warmer each day of the long term. Friday will see highs in the 60s to around 70. Saturday warming into the 70s. All locations should be into the warm sector on Sunday with most into the 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Upper level low pressure over the southeastern US will eventually start to move up the East Coast of the US tonight. This will help to spread some cloud cover toward the region but it will be at the middle and high levels. So VFR conditions are expected into tonight. Winds will be light and variable through sunset but should increase from the east. Closer to the lakeshore winds will turn a bit more to the northeast. Winds will likely become gusty during the afternoon and may reach 20 to 25 knots. Strongest near the lakeshore. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. && .MARINE... Low pressure over the southeastern US and high pressure ridging toward the lake from northern Ontario will help to increase northeasterly winds today. It will take until early afternoon to get the winds up to 15 to 20 knots with waves building through the afternoon. There is concern that waves may build to close to small craft conditions. However at this time the best forecast seems to be 2 to 4 feet this afternoon with later shifts adjusting if needed. The next area of low pressure should move into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday with a warm front crossing the lake. Winds should then shift to the south and southwest until the cold front passes Thursday night. Late Thursday night into Friday morning winds may increase enough in the wake of the front to approach small craft conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mottice NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mottice SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...TK MARINE...Mullen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.