Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251925 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 325 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken and shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track across the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area Wednesday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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No change in the overnight forecast. Strong upper ridge remains anchored over the forecast area with only weather to contend with a cirrus shield over the area. Well above normal temps continue with low from the upper 50s into the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Change in the weather pattern is on the way. Upper level ridge finally weakens allowing surface cold front to move into the Central Great Lakes by daybreak Wednesday. For the third day in a row have removed precip from northwest Ohio for Wednesday. The models have been consistently showing the precip threat with the front is primarily over the east end of the area. Since our neighbors to the west and north have dry forecasts I think it is reasonable to go dry especially given the models. Even in the east see no need for anything more than a 20 pop given how dry the atmosphere is. The front should be southeast of the area by 18z. Still think the forecast guidance is too cool for highs as it will likely be 80 by 9am like it has been the past several days. Will continue with a high forecast similar to the previous few days. Cold air advection will continue through the end of the short term period. Another cold front will cross the area on Friday. Temps will get chilly behind this front with 850 mb temps dipping to around plus 4 by 00z Saturday. At the same time 500 mb temps will get colder than 20 below which means the lake to 500 mb temp difference will be about 40 degrees. So...not only will showers be likely downwind of the lake on Friday...a few rumbles of thunder could also occur. Will go with 50 pops for now but suspect we will eventually need likely or higher wording. Have trended high temps down for Thursday and Friday and they still may be too warm.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Next cold front along with a sharp shortwave will cross the local area Friday evening, the timing of which is better aligned between the GFS/ECMWF. Have carried precip chances across north- central/north-east OH/NW PA into Friday evening/night. With as sharp as the trough is lake effect looks to be confined to Friday night. High pressure and subsidence overspreads the area effectively on Saturday and brings breaks to the mostly cloudy skies. That high and the ridge aloft will shift east between Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be at their lowest Saturday night especially if we clear out with light winds. Will bring a number of locations close to 40. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term with slowly moderating temperatures into early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions with only cirrus will continue remainder of today. Lake breeze will develop along the lakeshore from CLE east this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog Tuesday morning. Non- VFR possible Wednesday evening/Thursday in shra/tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will usher in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake. Non-VFR possible Friday with secondary front. && .MARINE...
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High pressure will linger over the region for one more day before a cold front crosses the lake on Wednesday. Winds will remain variable at under 10 knots till the front arrives. Winds will become northerly behind the front but it now appears we will remain below small craft criteria. Northerly winds will continue on Thursday and then will briefly become southwest ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday night. Winds will become northwest behind the front on Friday. This time winds and waves may get large enough for small craft consideration. Numerous showers and expected Friday into the start of the weekend with some thunder and even spout possible given the cold airmass. Winds will take on an easterly component on Saturday which will dry things out.
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&& .CLIMATE... Upcoming records for today and Tuesday 25TH/26TH: TOL 91/1891 92/1998 CAK 92/1908 89/1900 MFD 88/2007 87/1998 CLE 88/2007 91/1998 ERI 89/1933 89/1998 YNG 91/2007 89/1934 && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB/Kubina LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Kubina CLIMATE...

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