Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 302257 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 657 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...TRYING TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THEN TAPERING OF THE RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LATER TONIGHT... MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS OHIO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TONIGHT...MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KC INTO NE OHIO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CURRENT HT FALLS NEAR WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH MODEL FORECAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE SHOWERS NEAR MFD AREA...TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF LOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NE OHIO. NAM MOVES THE LOW TO BUF AREA BY 18Z WHILE GFS HAS LOW LINGERING OVER NE OHIO. NAM FASTER TIMING SEEMS MORE REASONABLE SO USED THAT FOR FORECAST TIMING. EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS THAN A BREAK BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY THE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW INTO UPSTATE NY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HOLDS FIRM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WELL...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL TURN INTO A DEEP EAST COAST LOW. THE MODELS AS USUAL ARE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT ALL PUMP MOISTURE WEST INTO THE AREA. THIS MEANS WE WILL NEED PRECIP CHANCES PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE THAT THINK THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN BAD...YOU WILL PROBABLY BE REALLY DISAPPOINTED WITH THE NEXT ONE AS WELL. EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN AS CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HAVE JUST ABOUT SCOURED OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP BEGINS AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE PINPOINTING THE LOW TRACK SO THE WIND FORECAST IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW EXPECT IT TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WHICH MEANS ONLY KTOL COULD END UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH DRYING DURING THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY SEE NO NEED FOR THUNDER. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECT TILL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN WINDS BECOME SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... WILL NOT BE GOING OUT WITH A SMALL CRAFT. WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW MAINLY EAST THE BIGGER WAVES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. EVEN IF THE FLOW HAD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DO NOT THINK THE SPEEDS WOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY. MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT TILL POSSIBLY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB/KOSARIK NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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