Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 282339 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 639 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIFT AND LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE CWA WITH A GENERAL SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE HALF BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ESE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE NE BY DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD RANGE FROM LITTLE OR NONE IN THE FAR SW TO ABOUT AN INCH IN THE FAR NE. A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR SO SOME SNOWBELT AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. POPS THRU 06Z LARGELY RESULT FROM MIX OF RUC/HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR DATA. THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THRU MIDNIGHT AND THEN TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND EXTEND THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SIT ON THE COAST AND PUMP WARM AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TRUE EFFECTS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ARRIVES. LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FORCE THE WARMING INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO MONDAY. FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME. COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT THAT STRONG AND ACTUALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LIFT IS IN QUESTION BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CURRENTLY HAVING A PIECE OF JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE BUT IT IS 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS SNOW BAND IS MOVING EAST ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT TO A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BEFORE PULLING ENE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS KCLE KCAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT KYNG AND KERI. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMFD KMNN KFDY AREA ALTHOUGH NO REACHING THE GROUND ON THE OBS. SATURDAY MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR EARLY BUT LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AMS SATURATES AND WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS/LIGHT RAIN/MIST/FOG AHEAD AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT WITH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
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&& .MARINE... RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER WAVES BEYOND 5 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND QUICKLY COME AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...TK MARINE...MULLEN

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