Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 222044 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 344 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track northeast through the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday, forcing a cold front east across the area. A large area of high pressure will build east across the region Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will track east through the region this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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An area of showers will continue to move east/northeast across the area this afternoon into this evening, associated with a few weak MCV`s from remnant upstream convection last night/early this morning. Rain should be light, with up to a tenth of an inch of rain as it moves through. Attention will turn to more precip expected to develop this evening and move through the area overnight. A strong upper jet streak will round the base of a strong closed, nearly vertically-stacked extratropical cyclone centered west of the area, with a surface cold/occluded front/trough pushing east into the region. As this jet moves northeast into the Ohio valley, an area of strong divergence aloft associated with the left exit region of the jet will promote convective development ahead of the front across western Ohio. Hi-res guidance has picked up on this activity, with development between 00Z-03Z. Global/lower-res guidance places this development a bit further east across the area, with some uncertainty with how organized/widespread the precip will be. Given the strong forcing, would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms with this convection, however will not include thunder mention at this time with thermodynamically marginal conditions. Tried to time this activity with an eastward advancing corridor of categorical pops in the grids. A little bit of a lull in precip activity is expected immediately behind the front as it passes through late tonight into early Tuesday morning. However, pops will increase again Tuesday as the upper low tracks northeast across the southern Great Lakes, with a secondary surface cold front/trough swinging through the region. Highest pops should be along/north of the I-80 corridor. A transition from rain to a mix to all snow will take place as well as colder air pushes into the area on the backside of the low. Temperatures will steadily fall through the day, starting out in the upper 30s/low 40s in the morning to around 30 by mid evening. As the trough eventually pushes east of the area Tuesday night, northwest flow will prevail, with lake enhanced/lake effect snow showers continuing. The extent/longevity of the precip will depend on how much of the lake is open, but some snow showers should linger through the night on Tuesday. Lows will drop into the mid 20s Tuesday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An upper low will track from northern New York northeast into the Quebec Province resulting in upper level northwest flow across the region. This will bring west northwest surface winds with lingering snow showers...especially across northwest PA. Lake effect snow showers will continue across northwest PA into Wednesday and begin to taper off Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise...upper level high pressure will begin to build into the area Wednesday night into at least Friday resulting in a warming trend with dry weather. Temperatures on Thursday will be near normal and around 10 degrees above normal by Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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There are model timing differences with the cold front moving across the region Friday night into Saturday morning. In any event there will be a period of rain that starts up after midnight Friday night and may continue through early Monday morning. This will all depend of the timing of the upper level trough across the area. Until the warm front passes we will be warmer than average.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Scattered showers are possible this afternoon into this evening from west to east across the area, however conditions will mainly be VFR. More showers are possible this evening through the overnight as low pressure tracks towards the area. MVFR ceilings are expected for a time overnight, with some MVFR visibility reductions in the showers as well, however widespread IFR not anticipated at this point. MVFR ceilings will continue through the morning on Tuesday, with additional SHRA changing to a mix/snow just after this TAF period. Southerly winds will become gusty through this evening, becoming southwest overnight into Tuesday with gusts to 30 kts possible. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, especially across the snow belt. && .MARINE...
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An upper low is forecast to track northeast across northwest OH Tuesday morning and into north central NY by Tuesday evening. The low center will track just north of Lake Erie...bringing gusty southwest winds. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday evening into Tuesday night...with gusts around 30 kts. Winds will begin to subside on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area and surface pressure gradients loosen.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Riley LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Riley

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