Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221322 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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