Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251633 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1233 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east. A cold front will sweep across the area on Monday with a change to cooler weather. An upper level low will move south across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Band of mid-level clouds over Michigan have continued to thin and decrease as they attempt to round the upper ridge. Any that do arrive will have little influence as they quickly drift through so lowered cloud cover in the forecast with sunny conditions continuing. Otherwise only minor tweaks to hourly temperature/dewpoints for the afternoon. Original "today" discussion... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift east today. High clouds will begin to fill in today, especially this afternoon, otherwise sunny. Warm advection will develop and will forecast high temperatures on the warm side of the guidance based on the expected rise in 850 mb temperatures. Highs from around 70 northwest PA to near 80 around Findlay. A lake breeze will develop this afternoon but with water temperatures near the expected high temperatures it will have little temperature influence.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The front will cross the northwest Ohio Monday morning reaching extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA early to mid afternoon. The frontal passage will make a transition during the day. By morning, the front will have out run the convection from the day before and the showers will begin to dissipate. This will lead to a weakening line of showers across northwest and north central OH Monday morning. Will not mention thunder there. By afternoon, the front will begin to slow as the trough aloft deepens to the west and it runs into the ridge. New showers and thunderstorms will develop. This will lead to a more significant rain event from somewhere near the Ohio border eastward across Pennsylvania/New York on Monday afternoon/evening. Will have higher pops and QPF and include thunder for extreme northeast OH and northwest PA. Will essentially be between systems on Tuesday. The cold front will be well east and the upper trough/low will be to the northwest. Cannot rule out an instability shower as the trough approaches and there will be lake effect showers off Lake Erie in the southwest flow. Some of the showers could clip Erie County PA. Highs in the 60s. The upper trough/low is progged to sag south across the area later Tuesday night and Wednesday. Boundary layer winds will back from the south as the trough/low approaches and the lake enhancement will shift northeast away from the forecast area for a time. Made some minor adjustments to the previous forecast which emphasized the showers in the snowbelt for Wednesday. With the upper low progged to drop across northwest Ohio will need a higher pop across the northwest Ohio counties. As the low drifts south on Wednesday the wind will back all the way to north northeast and lake enhancement will be possible across the north central counties later Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the clouds and showers, temperatures will not rise much on Wednesday. Highs generally only in the lower and mid 60s and may not get out of the 50s if there were to be persistent showers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long range models differ in their level of intensity of the storm system that is progged to move southeast across the area. GFS is basically saying no big deal while the European model is saying look out here I come. Over the last several model runs the European has been pretty persistent in bringing the upper level low in while the GFS has been persistent in keeping the pattern progressive. But the GFS has slowed down a bit so maybe some consensus will take place in the next few model runs to a closer solution. So, on that note, I will lean in the direction that this massive upper level low is not going to be quite as cutoff as the European suggests and take a middle of the road approach. Precipitation with the upper level low and surface feature will begin to pull out Thursday night and bring a return back to fair weather going into the weekend as high pressure begins to build back into the local area. Temperatures through the period will see a slow recovery from the 60s on Thursday under the upper level cold pool back to the lower to middle 70s most areas by Sunday. Cooler air to the east will remain present and keep temperatures in the 60s Sunday. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s and remain steady state through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... High pressure will dominate the area through the early portions of this forecast period. Some high clouds will begin to move in ahead of the next cold front during the latter part of the forecast period. As cold front approaches the western portions of the area (Toledo and Findlay), showers will begin to spread into area. Otherwise, winds will be light easterly becoming southeast later tonight. Lake breeze will set up at Erie from the northeast during the day. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday in showers. Occasional non-VFR at CLE/ERI with lake effect clouds or showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds are expected to diminish slightly through the day today and then pick up again on the lake tonight into Monday out of the Southeast and then south by Monday morning ahead of the cold front. Cold front will sweep east across the lake Monday shifting the winds to a westerly direction. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday afternoon after frontal passage. Small craft advisory will likely be needed through early Tuesday night as winds finally diminish on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds do pick up again during the afternoon on Thursday out of the north at around 10 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...KEC/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Lombardy

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