Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250808 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 408 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NICE JET STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS NW OHIO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NE OH/NW PA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE JET AND WITH NO GULF INFLOW NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE SOMEONE COULD SEE A DROP OR TWO. WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING A "SLIGHT CHANCE" AROUND ERIE PA AND I WILL JUST CALL IT "SPRINKLES". THE AIR MASS IS TOO WARM FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENTLY A HODGE PODGE OF CLOUDS OUT THERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF CLOUDS I SUSPECT THAT TEMPS WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN GIVEN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...PROBABLY MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST. THE BREEZE...15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY...WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CHILLY THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE SHADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... PROBABLY ONLY IN THE SNOWBELT AND PERHAPS MAINLY ACROSS NW PA. A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE AIR MASS BEING DRY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA AROUND 10 PERCENT. SUNNY ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY AND SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. LOTS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY. A BATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME DECENT SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY LINGER. WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NW OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL OH...PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST ...BARELY GETTING THE FRONT TO I-71 BY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALL OUT SLOW AND I THINK IT IS BETTER TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND I SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE CONSIDERING THE DECENT JET ENERGY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL KEEP IT WARM TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LOW CURLS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH JUST A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD FILLS IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A FAIRLY ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT VARY WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH COULD BRING THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW IT MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR AT TOL AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES OR STRATUS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-12Z...MAINLY AT TOL. VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ONLY LASTING FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO ARRIVE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT. EXPECTING VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND REMOVED THE MENTION FROM ALL SITES BUT VCSH AT ERI. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SHOULD BE BOTH BRIEF AND LIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AFTER 11 AM FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF AVON WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BACK TO THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO TOLEDO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS AND WAVES FINALLY DECREASE ENOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC

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