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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 090443
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST
FROM THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA INTO THURSDAY.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS HAS OR WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING A LOT. A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKE WOOSTER IS ALREADY IN SINGLE DIGITS BUT WILL SLOWLY
RISE BACK TO THE TEENS. OTHERWISE SOME SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AREA BY 10Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WARNING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO TO 7AM.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW WILL SPREAD IN RAPIDLY WITH THE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY IN SNOW. FOR NORTHEAST OHIO THE SNOW
WILL START DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE. JUST WANTED
TO ADJUST THE TIME TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE
OCCURRING BY MID MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THE
SNOW SHOULD BE ACCUMULATING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

KIND OF A MESSY FORECAST TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS WARNING LOOKS
GOOD FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71 AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP THIS
CORRIDOR TOMORROW NIGHT. HEAVIEST ACCUMS SHOULD BE NEAR KTOL WHERE
THERE COULD BE LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS NOW IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD
SEE A DRY SLOT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF LULL
IN THE SNOW. WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE RELUCTANTLY DECIDED TO
ALSO GO WITH A WARNING FOR NE OH. GIVEN LOW TRACK...ACCUMS SHOULD
BE JUST UNDER WARNING CRITERIA. BUT SINCE THERE IS SOME CONCERN
ABOUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WEDNESDAY AND FACT NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE GOING WITH WARNINGS...HAVE DECIDED TO DO THE SAME.
ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NW PA WILL GET AN
ADVISORY. THIS ALSO MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. AS FAR AS TIMING
GOES...THE SNOW SHOULD REACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...THE KCLE METRO AREA AROUND MIDDAY AND KERI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM SO HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UP TILL 00Z
THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN LIKELY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MOST OF THIS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG
DEAL BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT ALL OF THAT COLD AND MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE MOST OF
THE PERIOD GIVEN SNOWPACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. FAST... WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BE HARD TO
TIME BUT AS IT LOOKS NOW... SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A BREAK SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
FLURRIES ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL
LIKELY WHEN WE GET CALM CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS. SOME QUESTION AS
TOO WHETHER ANY MILD AIR CAN GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM. DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THE WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT
THIS FAR NORTH BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING TAF PERIOD FROM THE WEST WITH
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING. SOME STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE AT
ERI ONLY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN WINDS/FLOW SHIFT.

PREVIOUS TIMING STILL APPEARS TO WORK. HAVE SNOW STARTING AT
TOL/FDY BY 6 AM...CLE BY 8AM AND ERI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GO QUICKLY TO IFR AND STAY THAT WAY TOMORROW.
OCCASIONAL LIFR IN SNOW. WITH TRACK OF LOW FROM CINCI TO NEAR
CLE...NORTH AND NW SIDE OF LOW EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. POSSIBLE DRY SLOT EAST OF THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THEN AS LOW BEGINS TO BE DRAWN EAST...MAKE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND BETTER VSBYS. WINDS EAST TO EAST- NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
HAVE LOW TRACKING BETWEEN CLE AND CAK...A VARIATION WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHICH DIRECTION AROUND THE DIAL THE WINDS TAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL SETTLING IN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST.  MODELS STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT ALL MOVE LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF
GALES LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS...HOWEVER NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB