Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 100000 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 700 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND FORCE A TRAILING TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. DUE TO THE FACT THAT A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SNOWBELT REGION THAT WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE SNOWBELT. MORE ON THIS IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE SHORE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL LAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN DEEP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SETUP SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MEAN WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BANDS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. MEAN WINDS OVER THE LAKE AROUND 25 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE AIR PARCELS OVER THE LAKE TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND FROM A LAKE HURON FETCH...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS IS OVER. ONE QUESTION MARK STILL REMAINS IS HOW LONG EACH OF THE BANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TO ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATING SNOW. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BANDS WILL WAVER AT TIMES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND BROADCAST THE SNOW OVER A WIDER AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SHEAR TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN GOING BACK TO A MORE LAMINAR FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME IN THE COLDER AIR OVER THE LAKE. SO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GEAUGA...INLAND ASHTABULA...INLAND ERIE PENNSYLVANIA...AND CRAWFORD PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE...NORTHERN ASHTABULA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. CUYAHOGA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THEY WILL NEED A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE FOR THESE TWO AREAS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER MAIN ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS THE GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY/QUEBEC AREA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. SATURDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH 850MB TEMPS A CHILLY -24 TO -28C SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. SUNDAY THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT GIVEN THAT FLOW...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MONDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE FORCING AT THIS POINT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TURN VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OHIO THROUGH 4-6Z BEFORE FOCUSING ACROSS NW PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AT ERI WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2K FEET WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISBY POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AND MAY GUST 20 AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/ERI. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT A BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY EXPECT A WEST FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TURNING NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20 KNOTS RANGE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012- 089. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013- 014. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002- 003. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...TK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.