Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232318 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 718 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and move off the east coast by Monday morning. Cooler air will return on Monday as high pressure builds across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes early this week. Low pressure will develop over the plains states and move to the lower Great lakes on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Showers continue to expand where lift is focused along the 850-700mb warm front extending from eastern Michigan towards Pennsylvania and New York. The forecast remains on track with showers developing in Pennsylvania first, then expanding into northeast Ohio with the passage of the front. Only minor adjustments made to hourly sky cover, temperatures, and pops. Previous discussion... The surface low was approaching Lake Michigan and moving quickly southeast. A small area of showers has been expanding across northern lower MI and Lake Huron. The surface low is progged to track near Erie PA so the initial showers will likely be limited to NW PA. Extrapolation puts the first radar echoes into NW PA about 730 PM. Nothing happening south of the low in the warm sector and this will likely continue to be the case until the associated cold front sags across Lake Erie and picks up additional low level moisture tonight. There will likely not be any showers outside of NE OH and NW PA. 850 mb temperatures drop enough for lake effect showers after 07Z or so. It will remain relatively mild this evening although the breeze will persist. Low in the 40s later, perhaps near 50 along the Lake Erie lakeshore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Decent trough progged to linger over the northeast states through the first half of the week. Surface high pressure will build and drift east providing a prolonged northwest flow in the boundary layer. A weak short wave will skirt the eastern Great Lakes later Monday with perhaps another weak wave Tuesday morning. Subsidence will increase otherwise. The lake effect clouds will likely have limited production except for the Huron connection which will start out across northwest PA on Monday and may drift west a bit by Tuesday morning, perhaps into Ashtabula and Trumbull Counties. Will have a low pop chance of showers in these areas with sunnier skies by the west. It will probably end up mostly sunny across NW OH. Temperatures will be chilly with little temperature recovery Monday except across NW OH where it will be sunnier. The frost/freeze program ends Monday 10/24 so we will not issue frost advisories but there will be frost Monday night especially NW OH where it will be mostly clear and winds will lighten. Highs Tuesday may be a degree or two cooler than Monday. High clouds will begin to stream in Tuesday night as warm advection develops over the midwest. It will likely still get cold Tuesday night with lows down around freezing NE OH and NW PA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The models continue to show a band of warm advection moisture and possible light shra setting up over the north on wed. An upper trough and sfc low should be pushing across the area thu producing widespread rain. The wx pattern will remain active with the upper trough tending to remain over the lakes as a series of s/w`s move thru the base of the trough, however from day top day there are a lot of model differences, especially on the weekend. Will keep a threat for shra in the forecast fri thru sun. Its possible thu night thru sat night that low level temps could get cold enough between 06z and 16z that some snow or graupel could try and mix in with the rain as right now we are looking for lows generally around 40, maybe some upper 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Low pressure over Michigan will track east across Lake Erie tonight...dragging a cold front across the forecast area. Expect showers to develop in the east this evening with the system. The system will quickly move east tomorrow morning...but scattered lake effect showers will develop late tonight in the the 850mb temps dip to -3c and NW flow sets up over the lake. OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr likely to hang on for Erie and Youngstown Tuesday in scattered lake effect rain showers. Widespread showers should develop late Wednesday into Thursday as another low pressure system tracks across Lake Erie. && .MARINE... The brief lull in sca conditions this evening will end later tonight as winds shift to nw with colder air again spreading se across the lake leading to sca conditions for about the east three fourth`s of the lake. High pressure will finally move across the lake to diminish the winds on tue. Winds pick back up from the east wed into wed night as a low approaches from the west. Sca conditions may develop ahead of the low but the track of the low near the lake make the situation uncertain. The low will be weakening as it crosses the lake so may not get a strong enough west or nw wind behind the low to have sca conditions either for thu night into friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...KEC/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Adams is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.