Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 260551 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 151 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary located just south of Lake Erie will lift north as a warm front on Sunday ahead of low pressure approaching the Central Great Lakes. The low will slowly move northeast into Canada on Monday. Another area of low pressure will track out of the Plains through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday pulling the cold front back south across the area behind it. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Have gone ahead and lowered temps north of the surface front. Temps near the lake have fallen to close to the surface water temperatures. Inland have also made minor adjustments to temps based on current readings. Starting to see some precip to the west. This activity could cross the I-75 corridor later tonight so have left precip chances alone. Previous...Northeasterly flow on Lake Erie will increase this evening as the gradient increases ahead of low pressure moving north from Missouri. The stronger flow off Lake Erie is expected to push the front and cooler air southward across northwest Ohio while remaining fairly stationary to the east. Most of northwest Ohio will bottom out around 40 degrees tonight while southerly flow a few counties to the southeast will maintain mild conditions with lows only dropping into the upper 50s. Satellite imagery shows numerous breaks in the clouds late this afternoon which is a good indicator of the relatively dry low level air in place. A dry night is expected for most areas with the ridge aloft and an overall lack of forcing. We do bring a chance of showers into western areas late tonight as the upper level closed low to the west curls northeast towards the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Plume of deeper moisture will lift northeast across the area on Sunday ahead of the closed upper low curling towards Michigan. This will bring showers with scattered thunderstorms to northwest Ohio during the morning, expanding eastward during the afternoon. Surface warm front will lift back north with all areas warming into the 60s. By late Sunday into Sunday evening, the mean flow is expected to set up parallel to the storm motion across eastern Ohio and NW PA which could result in some heavier areas of rain. More likely that this will set up south of our area across eastern Ohio but locations from Canton to Meadville could see a half inch to an inch of rain on Sunday evening. A break in the rain is expected late Sunday night into Monday as the low lifts northeast into Canada, taking the deeper moisture with it. Some degree of weak ridging expected aloft until another area of low pressure moving out of the Plains slides east across the Ohio Valley. Monday will be mild again with temperatures starting to fall late Tuesday as this system departs to the east and northerly flow increases. Another round of showers possible Monday night and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure building se from Canada should bring dry but cool conditions for Wed...especially near Lake Erie where onshore winds off of the lake look likely. Things should change for Thu thru Sat as a slow moving upper trough over TX makes its usual springtime track toward Ohio. Increasing chances for shra look in order for Thu into Thu night with Fri also looking wet. Sat more in question as model differences bring into question whether the rain threat will be able to move off to the east or not. Temps look to generally be near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... IFR CIGS continue at KTOL and just moved out of KERI...otherwise conditions remain VFR across northern Ohio early today. Through daybreak guidance continues to insist on IFR and LIFR across much of the area. The HRRR however maintains VFR CIGS as stalled front turns warm and moves north across the area. For KTOL will bring CIGS up to VFR by 09z although will leave restrictions in through the overnight hours given proximity of moisture. Same for KFDY. Further east favor more of a VFR forecast until rain moves in beginning about 14-15Z at KMFD and 18-21Z KCLE KCAK and KYNG. Brought precip into KERI after 22Z. Could also see a few thunderstorms in the area as well mainly in the afternoon. Best instability will come after 20Z or so FDY to MFD based on LI`s. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Sunday into Tue then again by Thu. && .MARINE... Ne winds expected to produce marginal SCA conditions until Sun morning before the flow veers to se. A downslope flow for Sun Evening could be near SCA levels along the NW PA shoreline but then winds settle down some by daybreak Mon and turn sw. A cold front will drop se into Lake Erie by early Mon night then a wave of low pressure will move along the front and in its wake will create north winds that look to run about 10 to 20 knots Tue night thru Wed that turn ne for Thu. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ143>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Kubina SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...TK MARINE...Adams is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.