Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 181734 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 134 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY- SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW. SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE 50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION. THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...KIELTYKA

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