Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 060141 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 941 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE SUN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MAYERS

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