Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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088 FXUS61 KCLE 211740 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1240 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the central United States has extended a warm front across the Great Lakes region. This low will progress eastward along the front and deepen as it approaches the area. The low and its associated cold front will cross the Great Lakes area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will then build in behind the front and persist through much of the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast on track. Fog from previous dense fog advisory has been improving. Area of fog across northeast OH/nw PA is only locally dense/not as widespread. Will continue to mention areas of fog in the forecast. Therefore no changes with this midday update. Previous discussion...A murky, dreary, yet warmer Sunday is store for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A warm front sits just to the north of the area, extending all the way back to a low pressure system over the central plains. On the south side of the front, warmer air is streaming into the region with plenty of moisture. This is allowing for a widespread area of stratus from upstate New York to the Mississippi River, which will remain overhead for all of Sunday. A rather strong inversion remains in the warm sector so some drizzle is possible with the stratus deck but measurable precipitation seems unlikely given the dry air aloft. The aforementioned inversion begins to erode late this afternoon as the low pressure center moves closer to the region and some potentially measurable precipitation could creep in late in the today period but is more certain to occur during the tonight period. Rainfall amounts aren`t too jarring and should be limited to a tenth to two tenths at most. Light rain will continue into Monday as the low and associated cold front move closer to the region. Overall, rain looks to be intermittent with perhaps a good chance for rain Sunday night and then a break Monday morning before a second round on Monday afternoon, but there may be some lingering rain so don`t have rain chances too refined at the moment. However, rain coverage and amounts will be on the increase as the cold front approaches...so have higher pops and QPF for Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period as the region will be in the warm sector. Warm air advection will pump the temperatures up into the mid to upper 40s for Sunday and cloud cover overnight will keep temperatures rather warm on Sunday night. This will prime the environment for temperatures to warm even further for Monday with widespread mid 50s, or about 20 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Monday night with models showing low pressure in nrn IL/srn WI region. A warm front will extend east across the Great Lakes. A weak cold front/surface trough will extend across eastern OH well east of the wrapped up surface low. Another cold front will extend south from the low. Monday night and Tuesday the low will move across the Great Lakes into Quebec dragging the second cold front across the region early Tuesday. Will have chance to likely pops Monday night increasing to categorical most locations Tuesday with the low moves through the lower lakes. Colder air will move into the region behind this second cold front Tuesday as the low moves through the lakes so will have chance to likely pops for rain changing to snow from west to east. Another weak trough moves through for Wednesday although outside of the lake effect areas will only carry slight chance pops. For the northeast however, 850mb temps drop to around -14C by Wednesday morning which should be good enough for a little lake effect snow. Thursday dry air moves in as high pressure moves east through the TN Vly. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday looks decent with an upper ridge across the region. Expect moderating temps and fair skies. The ridge of course is just ahead of a rather large upper trough that will approach on Saturday sending deep moisture streaming north out of the GLFMX. The moisture conveyor will continue into Sunday as the upper trough axis presses east into the Great Lakes. Will have fairly high pops for Saturday and Sunday. Expecting rain Saturday and Saturday night with a possible mix of rain and/or snow Sunday as temps cool. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Widespread IFR/LIFR continues across the northern terminals, but MVFR has been encroaching on the southern terminals. HREF partially picking up on this and have brought the improvement up to CAK/YNG and for a bit at CLE for mid/late afternoon. Conditions likely deteriorate again this evening. Area of showers to move across the terminals overnight followed by improvement to MVFR with the push of a warm front north. By 18Z Monday some southern sites may be getting close to VFR. Winds will remain light south. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE... No headlines expected through the forecast period. Light south flow will persist today and tonight before turning south/southeast at 5 to 15 knots Monday ahead of low pressure moving through the upper midwest. Monday night winds veer to the south/southwest around 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots from the southwest Tuesday as the low moves through the central lakes. Wednesday look for northwest flow 10 to 20 knots behind the low. Wednesday night and Thursday winds will be light from the west/northwest. Friday winds will be from the south 10 to 15 knots as another low moves into the upper midwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...TK

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