Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 201100 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 600 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL DEFINITELY BE CLOUDY. AS A RESULT EXPECT A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AM OPTIMISTIC THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY FORECAST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT FIRST THE PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF BUMPING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND PLUS 10 DEGREES SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE RIPPING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KERI WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW IS A POSSIBILITY. THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ENDS. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 8-9C WHICH WOULD GIVE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 50S. STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SO UNDERCUT MODELS TEMPS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS STILL 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME. RAIN ON WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS. BUT WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS TOTALLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW. THE ECMWF IS TOTALLY OPPOSITE...MOVING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN. FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLE SOME SITES MAY BREAK INTO VFR TERRITORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT PUT INTO TAFS. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON-VFR RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY AND STICKS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY. AS HIGH SLIDES EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS CHANGE DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTENSE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL IN DOUBT AS GFS MOVES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE...WHILE ECMWF MOVES A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.