Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 262331 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 731 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front near chicago will move across the area tonight followed by another cold front monday night. High pressure over minnesota will shift east across ohio wednesday night and thursday then a cold front is expected to cross the region friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Just had a 33 knot gust at TOL but that is about as windy as it should get this evening. Freezing levels remain very high so hail is not a concern. Will keep an eye on the radar for any isolated pockets of strong winds. Have gone ahead and made some wording changes with scattered wording instead of chances most areas. Other minor changes as well. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... There could be a lingering shra in the east in the morning...otherwise drier air spreading in should produce a dry day while the warm air still in place allows temps to rise into the 80s...maybe even a 90 in the far west. The second cold front with the cooler air will drop se thru the area mon night. There may be just enough lower level moisture collected with this front to trigger a few light shra in the ne half of the cwa mon night. This moisture will be reinforced with wrap moisture for tue to keep a threat for shra then drier air moves in tue night to start ending the shra threat. Think wed and wed night will be dry with high pressure building in from the west but with the presence of an upper trough can`t absolutely rule out an isolated shra in the east. Temps will be cooler for tue and wed with highs mainly in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term begins Thursday with a surface high across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. Aloft models show a broad upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes. By 12z Friday the upper trough should deepen a bit across the region driving a cold front southeast across the lakes. The front should move into northwest Ohio Friday afternoon/evening dropping south of the region by Saturday morning. High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday afternoon through Sunday driving winds out of the north. Expect the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday and Friday night as the front approaches and then moves through. A few lingering showers are possible Saturday afternoon more northeast as this cooler air moves over the lake. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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Bkn line of TSRA has developed ahead of cold front...which now extends from near the thumb of Michigan...SW into central Illinois. Scattered TSRA have already moved into NW OH and will continue to move east-NE at roughly 20-25kt. Expect the TSRA to begin to weaken after sunset...but an isolated downburst is not out of the question. The front should be just east of a KCLE- KMFD line by daybreak...and east of the forecast area by 18z. Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie tonight after about midnight. Current SSW flow will turn more westerly behind the boundary. Winds speeds however should remain 15 knots or less and headlines are not expected. A secondary push of colder air will move in Monday night turning winds more northwest however again...wind speeds should remain 10 to 15 knots Monday before diminishing to under 10 knots Monday night. Tuesday winds increase to 15 to 20 knots from the NNW and will need to monitor for small craft advisory potential lasting through Tuesday evening. Wednesday and Thursday expect generally light flow with high pressure over the lake. Friday look for another cold front out of the northwest during the afternoon. Current indications are that wind speeds will remain 15 knots or less. Best chance for thunderstorms will be tonight with the front as well as next Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Kubina SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...TK

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