Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 021130 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR MASS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI AND KCLE. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .MARINE... LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES. THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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