Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 262331
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
A cold front near chicago will move across the area tonight followed
by another cold front monday night. High pressure over minnesota
will shift east across ohio wednesday night and thursday then a cold
front is expected to cross the region friday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Just had a 33 knot gust at TOL but that is about as windy as it
should get this evening. Freezing levels remain very high so hail
is not a concern. Will keep an eye on the radar for any isolated
pockets of strong winds. Have gone ahead and made some wording
changes with scattered wording instead of chances most areas.
Other minor changes as well.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There could be a lingering shra in the east in the
morning...otherwise drier air spreading in should produce a dry day
while the warm air still in place allows temps to rise into the
80s...maybe even a 90 in the far west.
The second cold front with the cooler air will drop se thru the area
mon night. There may be just enough lower level moisture collected
with this front to trigger a few light shra in the ne half of the
cwa mon night. This moisture will be reinforced with wrap moisture
for tue to keep a threat for shra then drier air moves in tue night
to start ending the shra threat.
Think wed and wed night will be dry with high pressure building in
from the west but with the presence of an upper trough can`t
absolutely rule out an isolated shra in the east.
Temps will be cooler for tue and wed with highs mainly in the 70s
and lows mostly in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term begins Thursday with a surface high across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. Aloft models show a broad upper
trough swinging into the Great Lakes. By 12z Friday the upper trough
should deepen a bit across the region driving a cold front southeast
across the lakes. The front should move into northwest Ohio Friday
afternoon/evening dropping south of the region by Saturday morning.
High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday afternoon
through Sunday driving winds out of the north. Expect the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday and Friday night
as the front approaches and then moves through. A few lingering
showers are possible Saturday afternoon more northeast as this
cooler air moves over the lake.
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Bkn line of TSRA has developed ahead of cold front...which now
extends from near the thumb of Michigan...SW into central
Illinois. Scattered TSRA have already moved into NW OH and
will continue to move east-NE at roughly 20-25kt. Expect the TSRA
to begin to weaken after sunset...but an isolated downburst is
not out of the question. The front should be just east of a KCLE-
KMFD line by daybreak...and east of the forecast area by 18z.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie tonight after
about midnight. Current SSW flow will turn more westerly behind the
boundary. Winds speeds however should remain 15 knots or less and
headlines are not expected. A secondary push of colder air will move
in Monday night turning winds more northwest however again...wind
speeds should remain 10 to 15 knots Monday before diminishing to
under 10 knots Monday night. Tuesday winds increase to 15 to 20
knots from the NNW and will need to monitor for small craft advisory
potential lasting through Tuesday evening. Wednesday and Thursday
expect generally light flow with high pressure over the lake. Friday
look for another cold front out of the northwest during the
afternoon. Current indications are that wind speeds will remain 15
knots or less. Best chance for thunderstorms will be tonight with
the front as well as next Friday.