Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281700 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 100 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This warm from should be north of the area by Sunday morning. Another strong low pressure system will develop over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and push a cold front across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Line of showers moving northeast out of Indiana and southwest Ohio at this time will continue to advance north toward the area. Will only mention a chance for the POPs since it is barely reaching the ground. Temperatures still warming up and still a lot of heating time left so will leave temperatures where currently forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather is expected across the region as several pieces of low pressure move toward the region. Each area of low pressure helping to move a warm front gradually further northward. The warm front should be north of the region on Sunday with the warm sector returning. We will then await a strong area of low pressure that will move through the central Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will help to push a cold front across the region at some point on Monday. There will be a chance of stronger thunderstorms on Monday but we have plenty of time to monitor this. Until then several waves of heavier rainfall will cross the region. The heaviest rainfall will likely be closer to the track of the areas of low pressure. So NW Ohio should see the higher amounts of rain. At this point any flooding problems will all hinge on how persistent the periods of thunder can be. It will be cooler on Saturday with increased cloud cover and periods of rain. Highs will range from around 60 north to the lower 70s south. Warmer on Sunday with highs into the 70s to lower 80s. Mondays temperatures will be tough to call with the timing of the cold front uncertain. In any event there should be a decent east to west temperature gradient with highs ranging from the upper 60s west to the upper 70s east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cooler, more active long term period in store as long term begins Tuesday with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region. Maintained chance pops during the day Tuesday, but backed off to slight chance north Tuesday night as the low pulls away to the northeast. Another trough will dig across the central CONUS Wednesday and Wednesday night with a surface low developing and tracking south of the area. Models are still quite different with the handling of the upper/surface lows and resulting pops. Current thinking is that there will be a fairly dry period between systems Tuesday night and Wednesday, but will maintain slight chance pops for forecast continuity. Best precip chances will remain south and east of the region Wednesday night through Friday, and have cut back pops quite a bit to mid chance eastward during this period. No major changes to temps which will be at or slight below normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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A wave of low pressure will move along a front setting up over northern oh tonight and Sat morning pulling the front into southern OH for Sat afternoon. Shra and possible tsra will develop rapidly ene along the front early tonight then continue on and off thru Sat. Conditions are expected to quickly lower to low MVFR or High end IFR as the rain occurs and saturates the lower levels of the atmosphere. Only minor improvement will take place into midday Sat. South winds of 10 knots or less (except for a lakebreeze) will become mainly ne late tonight and Sat. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Mon then just sct shra Tue and Wed.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build across Lake Erie today as a washed out surface boundary lifts north of the lake. Winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range out of the south today and tonight. The front will settle back south of the lake late tonight into Saturday morning, with winds increasing a bit out of the north through the day on Saturday, mainly in the 5 to 15 knot range. Winds will become northeasterly and increase quite a bit late Saturday night through Sunday and low pressure tracks northeast towards the lake. Winds may increase to 15 to 25 knots Sunday but should remain under gale force. Winds will again increase out of the south as the low tracks north through the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front through the region Sunday night and Monday, then veering southwest as a cold front moves across the lake Monday and Monday night. Southwest winds will approach 30 knots on Tuesday with low pressure north of the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Greenawalt

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