Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230534 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 134 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MEMORIAL DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80`S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013- 020>023-031>033-038-089. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014. PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAYERS NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MAYERS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...ADAMS/TK

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