Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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986 FXUS61 KCLE 210826 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 326 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push southeast across the area this morning. High pressure will shift east across the lakes tonight and Thursday. A warm front will lift back north into the area by Friday and stall into Sunday until low pressure moving north across the lakes pulls a cold front across the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As the wave of low pressure moves NE of leri today, the trailing cold front will be pulled SE across the cwa. A band of shra and possible tsra will progress SE across the area with expected QPF of a third to two-thirds of an inch. Don`t think this will be enough to lead to flooding problems, other than the rivers that are already running high. Will leave the flood watch going for Lucas county where more rainfall has occurred over the past 36 hours. The SW flow aloft will cause the front to stall just south of the Ohio river tonight thru Thu. A wave of low pressure will move along the front so the upper flow will pull moisture well north of the front. Best chance for precip will be over the SSE half of the cwa late this evening into Thu morning. Temps aloft will not be able to cool enough for just snow to occur so with surface temps getting below freezing, expecting mix of precip. Expect any icing from the fzra to be less than a quarter of an inch so probably will just need a winter wx advisory for the situation. Still uncertainty with how cold temps will get thus affecting where the precip type transition line will set up so will hold off on an advisory for another look at next set of data from 12z model runs. Precip with this wave should shift east of the area Thu but some lingering drizzle may hang around the rest of the day. Highs Thu expected to rise above freezing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The next wave of low pressure will be moving along a cold front toward Indiana Thursday night. It appears temperatures will be very close to freezing so we will need to monitor for some light freezing rain. It looks like it will be a short lived event but could cause impacts for the morning commute across NW Ohio Friday morning. Temperatures quickly warm on Friday with the threat of freezing rain ending early in the morning. The rain may then become locally heavy for several hours Friday afternoon into the evening. This will likely have impacts on area creeks and rivers since many of them are running above normal levels. High pressure should help to nudge the cold front south of the region briefly Friday night into early Saturday. However the next wave of low pressure will push the frontal boundary back to the north onto Lake Erie by Saturday night. Fortunately it looks like the region should stay warm enough to keep the precipitation all rain. After lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday morning it looks like the region should range from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Slightly cooler on Saturday but highs should be within a couple degrees of 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Locally heavier rain may occur through Sunday morning with some flooding concerns persisting. The cold front should clear the region by Sunday evening with some much needed drier air arriving. High pressure should then be the main weather feature Monday into Tuesday. Sunday should see midday highs then slowly cooling in the wake of the cold front. A couple degrees cooler on Monday and Tuesday but highs should be above seasonal averages.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... As the cold front moves SE across the area thru this morning, expect band of shra and possible isold tsra to work across the area. The back edge of the rain will stall near CAK by this evening then lift back north tonight. Colder air will cause a changeover to a wintry mix of precip with fzra becoming a likely precip type. Conditions should drop to IFR most places as the frontal band of rain pushes across the area thru midday followed by improvement to higher MVFR/VFR from NW to SE midday thru nightfall. Conditions will then worsen from south to north from 02z thru 06z as the precip start to push back northward tonight. SW winds gusting up to 25 knots ahead of the front will diminish and shift to the NW with frontal passage then continue to veer to the NE the rest of today into early tonight. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely to dominate most of the time thru Sunday. && .MARINE...
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Southwesterly winds will shift to a northwesterly direction as a cold front crosses the lake this morning. This should bring much of the ice back to the south shore of the lake. Winds will shift to the north overnight and then increase from the northeast on Thursday as the next area of low pressure approaches. Expect to see winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots and persist into early Friday morning. Lighter winds should arrive by Friday night as high pressure briefly controls the area. Another area of low pressure will approach Saturday with northeast winds once again increasing to 10-20 knots. The strong area of low pressure looks like it will move into the Western Great Lakes by Saturday evening with southwesterly winds increasing to at least 15 to 25 knots.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ003. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Mullen

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