Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230709 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 309 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO CALM WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM MI WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING...WHICH COULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE PRECIP CHANCE. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. WITH THE MAIN FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY WILL BE ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE SEE MORE WARMING ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN MOST AREAS...AND A WEAK SE FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST WITH MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING (H700 10C). FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IS A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPS GIVEN ONGOING NW FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUT ALL POPS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY APPROACHING 90. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TUE THEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME FOR WED TO ALLOW A BETTER THREAT FOR TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL TUE AND WED. THE MODELS DIFFER FOR THU AND FRI ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU OR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP GOING FOR FRI ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PATCHES OF CLOUDS MAY TRY AND SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN SOME PLACES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE INLAND TAF SITES AFT 08Z AND SOME MVFR FOG AT CLE AND ERI. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO MVFR CIGS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH UPPER TROUGHING STILL EXISTS IN THE FAR EAST TO HELP A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS AT YNG BUT IT IS STILL UNDER 30% SO MAY JUST MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 18Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. NE WINDS OFF OF LERI SHOULD HAVE A DAMPING EFFECT ON THE CU FIELD SO ERI AND CLE SHOULD SEE SCT OR LESS CU IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND MOST SITES WILL LIKELY SEE IFR AGAIN. OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG AND THEN NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. && .MARINE... LAKE ERIE WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THRU SUN SO EXPECT AN E TO NE WIND OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME...TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR MON THRU WED. WAVES SHOULD MOSTLY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET THRU SUN THEN DECREASE TO 2 FEET OR LESS AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH BY MON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

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