Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251349 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 949 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week. A cold front is expected to sag south to near Lake Erie on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to develop across the midwest and move east across the area Friday into Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Difficult to find the weak cold front. There is a prefrontal trough from eastern Lake Erie across northeast Ohio. There may also be an outlfow boundary from the thunderstorm complex that crossed Ontario earlier this morning. The true cold front looks to be where the dew points drop off across western Michigan and northwest Indiana. A bit of a wait and see as far as which boundary spawns new thunderstorms. Made some minor adjustments to the pops for today but the overall forecast is similar with the highest pops across the southeast counties from Youngstown to Canton to Millersburg and Mount Vernon. The risk of storms should taper off near the lakeshore as the afternoon goes on. We can probably see enough duration of sunshine to get temperatures to the upper 80s/near 90 except up the east lakeshore where the west wind will come onshore. No other changes for the mid morning update. Previous "Today" Discussion... Outflow from a nearly dissipated MCS has moved into western Ohio early this morning. This boundary has cause the development of a few thunderstorms near Toledo. Expect there will be additional isolated to scattered development along outflow boundaries through at least mid morning. We will then await the arrival of a weakening cold front that should sweep across northern OH and NW PA through the afternoon. So after the morning isolated to scattered thunderstorms there may be a brief lull until we can get enough heating ahead of the frontal boundary to pop any new thunderstorms. Current thinking is that this isolated to scattered coverage will mainly be near and south of a line from Marion to Meadville. These chances will shift southeastward with the frontal boundary through the afternoon. It still will be a humid day until the cold front passes. All locations should still be in the mid to upper 80s for highs. This combined with the humidity will cause heat index values in the lower to maybe middle 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front should be south of the County Warning Area (CWA) during the evening hours with high pressure beginning to build into the area in its wake. Dry conditions will then persist into Wednesday night. The area of high pressure will weaken as another weak cold front sags into the area on Thursday. Not all that much moisture to lift ahead of the front but there could be some isolated/scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The better chances will arrive late thursday night into Friday as a ripple of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary that stalls over the area. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal averages through the short term. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The slight dip in the jet stream/relaxation of the upper ridge will hold through the weekend. A presence of a couple weak disturbances and a nearly stationary frontal boundary will necessitate low pops for Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. Broad brushed precip chances as timing this far out not possible. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Cold front still northwest of the area...from central Lake Huron to central IL. This will be passing across the area today and may spark new showers/thunderstorms. Coverage is not expected to be great and therefore only included VCSH at all sites except ERI where a VCTS was mentioned. VFR outside of any showers and thunderstorms and outside of early morning MVFR vsbys. By late afternoon/evening the drier air will be winning out and we will see clearing skies. Winds will shift from the southwest to the west and northwest with the gradual wind shift that accompanies the cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms on Friday. && .MARINE... Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a cold front. There will be a time this afternoon where waves just offshore across the east end nearshore waters will likely get to 4 feet. With 2 to 4 capturing most of the day will go without a Small Craft Advisory. The cold front will come across the lake this evening and bring winds around to the west and then north while diminishing. High pressure will then center itself across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes through mid week. The next front to make it to the lake arrives Wednesday night...stalling south of the lake to end the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Mullen NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman

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