Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 211644 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1244 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT CLE TO MNN WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. DRY SLOT WORKING IN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER UPSTREAM DEEPER MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR NEW SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REACHED THE MID 70S BUT WILL STOP THERE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. ACROSS THE WEST TEMPS WILL STAY BETWEEN 70 AND 74. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE TRYING TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S TOWARDS FDY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN REALLY START TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS MID-DAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW. ASSUMINGS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR MOST INTERIOR AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THEN AID IN TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY GET INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERNIGHT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NW OHIO WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTABLE IT CAN GET. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT. IN PRECIPITATION CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR OR LESS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT IFR CEILING FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER NW OH. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING A DECENT CHOP WE HAVE DECIDED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. THE FRONT HAS CROSSED ABOUT HALF OF THE LAKE AS OF 1315Z WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE BY 17Z. SO HAVE NUDGED UP THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ACTIVE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A STRONG TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...BOATERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS THREAT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT THREAT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THUS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA/MULLEN

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