Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201946 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 346 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SOME CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTSIDE BUT IT COULD STILL COULD HOLD THE LOWS UP SOME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AND WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT MONDAY DRY...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET CLOSE TO TOLEDO VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY OVER WESTERN OHIO MONDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK AND ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THAT COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 10C. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER ASHTABULA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH...AT THIS TIME NOT MEETING FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KEPT THURSDAY DRY. INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSING IN ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. BUT THE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT OUT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THURSDAY/S RAIN. BY THE TIME IT LIFTS OUT THE TROUGH THE ECMWF IS ALREADY BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHED ANY MORE CERTAINTY...I WILL KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...BUT BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE NEXT BEST BET TO CRACK 70 DEG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...ULTIMATELY LIMITING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MILDER AIR.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURES OVER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...MAYERS

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