Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 041137 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 737 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN AREA IS STILL BACK WEST OVER WESTERN INDIANA. STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO PIVOT AROUND AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60 TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED. HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE SHORE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THOUGH. ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH OF TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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