Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 050440 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1140 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATE...COLDER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS TENDED TO PUSH THE SNOW SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND WAS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SWRN KNOX COUNTY NOW OUT OF THE SNOW. STILL THINK SNOW COULD CLIP THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT COME BACK NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANCE BASED ON HRRR. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY TO MAKE A SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE AREA ALSO LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ORIGINAL...THE MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WAVES MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. DO NOT THINK THE PRECIP WILL GET VERY NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A KMNN TO KMFD TO KYNG LINE LIKELY DRY. REALISTICALLY ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE GONE COMPLETELY DRY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE WORST OF THE SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE IN SHOULD BE JUST AFTER 00Z AND BY 06Z THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS GO...MAYBE AN INCH...PERHAPS TWO OVER SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY WITH NO MORE THAN A TRACE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. CLEARING IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD MOST OF THE NIGHT EVEN IN NW OHIO. AS RESULT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO DEAL WITH BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES THIS WAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR ONE LAST FRIGID NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUBZERO LOWS MOST AREAS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT THE AREA WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM KCLE EAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FOR NW PA AS THAT IS WHERE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR. GIVEN THE CHANGING PATTERN HAVE STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND AND HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE COOL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND COULD TOP OUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...MULLEN

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