Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231727 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 127 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east through the area from late this morning through the afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure will then remain over the region through the weekend. High pressure at the surface will begin to move in from the west Monday night into Tuesday. An upper-level ridge will then be centered over the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Made tweaks to precip chances through the evening hours and have added the mention of heavy rainfall for southeast half of the area. Seeing precip rates spike over the last hour after areas of storms have merged. Will monitor closely as rainfall/flooding will be the primary concern with efficient storms and some training. Original... Showers are affecting southern and western portions of the CWA and are moving to the east-northeast. Look for these showers and a few storms to continue to expand in coverage as the march across the CWA. A period of dry weather for many is expected behind this initial wave of precipitation, except for perhaps northwest Ohio. A cold front will move in from the west this afternoon, triggering additional showers and storms. The front will be fairly slow moving and storm motion will be just 30 degrees or so from parallel to the front. This will mean the chance for some training thunderstorms, which could lead to some flooding. Additionally, there remains a slight possibility that some storms that develop along this front during the afternoon could become strong to severe. This will greatly depend on the amount of clearing that is present ahead of the cold front. While there is plenty of moisture, extensive cloud cover and limited instability are two inhibiting factors. The best chance for any strong/severe storm is across central and eastern parts of the CWA. Strong winds and hail would be the primary severe threats. As the cold front moves through, just a few scattered showers are expected in its wake into the overnight hours. High temperatures this afternoon should rise to the upper 70s in most locations. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 50s across western areas as well as across inland northwest Pennsylvania and the lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper-level trough will hang around the region right on through Monday. A very weak short-wave ridge embedded within the large scale trough will move over the area Saturday. With drier air in place we shouldn`t see much in the way of precipitation, but can`t completely rule out a spotty shower during the afternoon near the lakeshore. Still too much uncertainty to go any higher than a slight chance across a limited area, but will have to monitor this for future updates. A shortwave trough will move in from the west late Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring a chance for some showers to far northern areas Sunday morning. As we head into Sunday afternoon, a second shortwave trough will move in from the west, bringing the threat for a few showers southward across much of the CWA. The main trough will finally begin to move east through the area Monday. This will mean another shot at some precipitation throughout the day Monday. High temperatures will cool a bit each day from Saturday through Monday. Saturday`s highs will be in the middle 70s for most locations, with highs likely not getting out of the 60s for many areas by Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trough finally shifts east of the area on Tuesday with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. Will keep a low chance of showers in the forecast on Tuesday but removed the mention of thunderstorms given the shallow moisture depth and fairly stable conditions by that point. Removed the lingering low pop from Tuesday night as the flow on Lake Erie backs around to the southwest and any lingering showers should be focused out over the lake. Temperatures will climb back towards normal by mid-week as a weak ridge builds aloft. Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft could bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area as early as Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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A band of rain with embedded thunder continues across the area this afternoon. Do not think the main band will come north from it`s current location which means places like TOL will see little if any additional rain. A cold front just north of the area will push south across the area by late evening. It will take the remaining precip with it. A period of MVFR cigs is expected behind the frontal passage with skies clearing overnight and Saturday morning. Till then little change in vsbys and cigs is expected with widespread MVFR and pockets of IFR in the south where the heavier rain falls. Mainly VFR weather is expected further north. OUTLOOK...Chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday with a cold front and trough aloft.
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&& .MARINE... Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into this afternoon before shifting to the west as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow will keep the higher waves of 3 to 5 feet in the open waters. There is some chance that waves may creep up in the nearshore waters behind the front on the far east end of the lake behind the front but winds are expected to drop off as they shift to the west/northwest. A series of cold fronts will move south across the lake over the weekend as a slow moving trough sets up across the Great Lakes. Unsettled conditions with brisk westerly winds expected at times into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed at times, especially on the east half of the lake on Sunday. High pressure will finally build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday night with winds shifting offshore. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mottice NEAR TERM...Mottice/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Mottice LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...KEC

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