Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201802 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 202 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes today. The high will move east of the area on Monday. The next low will move northeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday and take a cold front across the region Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... No major changes to the forecast with the midday update. Models still indicating the potential for isolated convection to fire across west central Ohio late this afternoon and move into the area as a mid level disturbance approaches the area from the west. While low level moisture has increased a bit resulting in an expansive cumulus field across the area of interest, not confident enough to include isolated shower/storm chances at this point. Will continue to monitor convective trends through the afternoon forecast issuance and may add pops then. Original discussion... High pressure will be in control of the region today. However as it slides eastward through the day it will allow some moisture at 850 mb to advect back into the area from the Central Highlands southward into Central Ohio. A couple of the higher resolution models are trying to generate some showers/thunder within this area of moisture. While we do expect the increase in moisture it is difficult to believe there will be enough lift to produce any rain. So at this point we will keep a dry forecast for today. The dry conditions will continue through tonight but the low level moisture will continue to increase into Monday. This increase in moisture should lead to more cloud cover across the region. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Monday with a couple areas to monitor. One area being some convergence along a lake breeze boundary from east of Cleveland into NW PA. The other area would approach NW Ohio from the west with a weak piece of jet energy approaching along with increased warm advection. The chances of seeing scattered convection develop over Indiana and drift toward NW Ohio Monday afternoon/evening seems like a decent possibility. Temperatures today and Monday will be above seasonal averages. Monday will be the warmest day of the near term with highs mid 80s to around 90. Becoming more humid tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the warm and moist air continuing to flow into the area, have bled the chance for precip into the northwest half of the area Monday night. But the main focus will be on Tuesday/Tuesday evening as a trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes and brings a potentially well timed cold front to northern OH/nw PA. Strong/severe storms a possibility. Wednesday will begin a multi-day stretch of below normal temperatures as another shortwave amplifies the trough and delays its exit. Will go with highs in the lower and mid 70s. Somewhat concerned with the cold air and trough aloft that there may be a few showers. At this point will hold it with a silent 20 PoP. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will still be in the midst of the cool trough and in fact there is indication that another lobe of energy will rotate through the base of the trough. There is some timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF, but again this could be enough to spark a few rouge showers across the area. While waiting on better timing consensus and moisture availability, will again hold with a silent 20 PoP for most. Highs will be a little closer to 70 Thursday. Will moderate temperatures and keep the forecast dry going into the weekend with high pressure across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... High pressure will continue to slide east across the region. An increase in low level moisture will result in some scattered cu, with some models indicating potential for TSRA/SHRA from KMFD to KCAK. However, will continue to hold off on mention in TAF and monitor radar for development. Some MVFR BR possible at sites around daybreak as winds go light. TSRA chances return late in the period, but confidence is low this far out. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely in scattered showers/tstms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .MARINE... High pressure across the upper Ohio Valley today and Monday will provide for lighter winds on the lake with an afternoon shift to onshore flow each day. Tuesday though an active cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Southwest flow will increase and the lake will be choppy. Waves will build enough by late afternoon to be in need of a small craft advisory for at least areas east of Avon Point. With the passage of the cold front Tuesday evening, a good push of cold air advection takes place and the choppy conditions will likely persist through the night. The far east end may again be in need of a small craft advisory Wednesday with the northwest flow. High pressure will then move southeast across the Great Lakes Thursday with winds on Lake Erie shifting around to the northeast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mullen SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Oudeman

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