Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
High pressure will move quickly east of the region
today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley
tonight. This warm from should be north of the area by Sunday
morning. Another strong low pressure system will develop over
the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and push a cold front across
the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Line of showers moving northeast out of Indiana and southwest
Ohio at this time will continue to advance north toward the
area. Will only mention a chance for the POPs since it is barely
reaching the ground. Temperatures still warming up and still a
lot of heating time left so will leave temperatures where
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather is expected across the region as several
pieces of low pressure move toward the region. Each area of low
pressure helping to move a warm front gradually further
northward. The warm front should be north of the region on
Sunday with the warm sector returning. We will then await a
strong area of low pressure that will move through the central
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will help to push a
cold front across the region at some point on Monday. There
will be a chance of stronger thunderstorms on Monday but we have
plenty of time to monitor this. Until then several waves of
heavier rainfall will cross the region. The heaviest rainfall
will likely be closer to the track of the areas of low pressure.
So NW Ohio should see the higher amounts of rain. At this point
any flooding problems will all hinge on how persistent the
periods of thunder can be.
It will be cooler on Saturday with increased cloud cover and
periods of rain. Highs will range from around 60 north to the
lower 70s south. Warmer on Sunday with highs into the 70s to
lower 80s. Mondays temperatures will be tough to call with the
timing of the cold front uncertain. In any event there should be
a decent east to west temperature gradient with highs ranging
from the upper 60s west to the upper 70s east.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cooler, more active long term period in store as long term begins
Tuesday with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region.
Maintained chance pops during the day Tuesday, but backed off to
slight chance north Tuesday night as the low pulls away to the
northeast. Another trough will dig across the central CONUS
Wednesday and Wednesday night with a surface low developing and
tracking south of the area. Models are still quite different with
the handling of the upper/surface lows and resulting pops. Current
thinking is that there will be a fairly dry period between systems
Tuesday night and Wednesday, but will maintain slight chance pops
for forecast continuity. Best precip chances will remain south and
east of the region Wednesday night through Friday, and have cut back
pops quite a bit to mid chance eastward during this period. No major
changes to temps which will be at or slight below normal through the
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --A wave of low pressure will move along a front setting up over
northern oh tonight and Sat morning pulling the front into southern
OH for Sat afternoon. Shra and possible tsra will develop rapidly
ene along the front early tonight then continue on and off thru Sat.
Conditions are expected to quickly lower to low MVFR or High end IFR
as the rain occurs and saturates the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Only minor improvement will take place into midday Sat. South winds
of 10 knots or less (except for a lakebreeze) will become mainly ne
late tonight and Sat.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat night
through Mon then just sct shra Tue and Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to build across Lake Erie today as a
washed out surface boundary lifts north of the lake. Winds will
generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range out of the south today and
tonight. The front will settle back south of the lake late tonight
into Saturday morning, with winds increasing a bit out of the north
through the day on Saturday, mainly in the 5 to 15 knot range. Winds
will become northeasterly and increase quite a bit late Saturday
night through Sunday and low pressure tracks northeast towards the
lake. Winds may increase to 15 to 25 knots Sunday but should remain
under gale force. Winds will again increase out of the south as the
low tracks north through the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front
through the region Sunday night and Monday, then veering southwest
as a cold front moves across the lake Monday and Monday night.
Southwest winds will approach 30 knots on Tuesday with low pressure
north of the lake.