Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 171031 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 631 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...NO CHANGES. ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRY AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FILTERED SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE TO OUR WEST APPROACHES...HOWEVER MOST WILL GO NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS GENERALLY 58 TO 62.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED. ALSO ALOFT...MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 20 ON THE GFS AND 30 TO 40 ON THE NAM. WILL GO WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 20 TO 30 SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SATURDAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WONT HELP NORTHEAST AS WELL. SUNDAY HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND OPEN UP A SSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8 TO 10C. BOOSTED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. CONTINUED FAIR WX SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HOLD COLD FRONT BACK UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. STILL ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT GRADUAL COOL DOWN. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY CIRRUS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY. THE EAST FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AS WINDS STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BY LATE MORNING THE EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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