Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 021647 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1247 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. LEFT A LOW POP BOTH OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE AIR MASS DOES NOT COOL MUCH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL BE LOWER AND MORE PLEASANT WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES. MAINLY JUST SCATTERED CU ON WEDNESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUDS BURN OFF. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO STAY DRY. LEFT THE 20 POP IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DOES START TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOWERED POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS MAKING A RUN AT THE UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DONT THINK THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY HOWEVER AS THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL END TO THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST NR A KFNT-KSBN LINE. FROM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION FROM INDIANA TRACKING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OHIO. WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDER INTO NRN OHIO BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FAR NRN TAFS. HRRR MOVES THIS PRECIP THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE PRECIP...LIFTING TO VFR 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS. EXPECT THE EVENING WILL BEGIN VFR HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DRYING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... WILL BEGIN TODAY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY EAST OF CONNEAUT BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST JUST BELOW. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO BRIEFLY NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN SETUP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CLOSE...NO NEAR TERM HEADLINES FOR NOW. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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