Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 170233 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED TO ADD MORE CLOUDINESS TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AND CANTON AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG INVERSION WITH THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY(TUESDAY). OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SINCE THE CLOUDS MAY BE VARIABLE NO CHANGES TO THE LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXISTS. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OH AND NW PA...HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE. ALSO A THREAT OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WHERE THE DEW POINTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER. MINOR ADJUSMENTS TO THE LOWS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE COLDEST LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 40. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S MAY OCCUR AT SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INCREASED THE SKY COVER....PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MAY ONLY HAVE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS FDY/MNN AREA LATER IN THE DAY. A COOL START BUT WITH A LOT OF SUN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S. FORTIES AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE FROM THIS SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT 20 PERCENT FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BASICALLY THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT SOME CLOUD COVER AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO A COOL NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO WILL KEEP FROSTY TEMPS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND ONLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST. A WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH BRIEF AND LIMITED WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL AIM FOR THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE CREEPING A LITTLE FASTER WITH COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BUT I THINK SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. YESTERDAY I THOUGHT WE COULD GET TO 80F IN MANY PLACES AND I THINK WE WILL STILL TAKE A RUN AT IT BUT THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED ONLY SUPPORT UPPER 70S. WILL STILL CHEAT THE FORECAST UP NEAR 80 IN THE TRADITIONAL WARMER SPOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT THOUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE IF WE CAN SEE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS NW OHIO. THE COLD ADVECTION IS NOT TOO STRONG AT FIRST AND TEMPS COULD RECOVER TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IF THE RAIN MOVES EAST QUICK ENOUGH. MONDAY MAY NOT BE A BAD DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN BUT THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER THAN GUIDANCE...AT LEAST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. IF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY GOING TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO...CANNOT BE OPTIMISTIC. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR BR IS LIKELY INLAND NE OH/NW PA WITH LOCAL IFR FOG AND CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING TOMORROW AND SCATTERED VFR FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LIKELY NE OH/NW PA. OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER BUT IT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE AND THE NORTH WIND WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO MAKE THE LAKE CHOPPY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS AS IF THE WIND AND WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES MAY END UP ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL GET STIRRED UP NONETHELESS AND EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY...PROBABLY IN THE MORNING... AND WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KOSARIK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.