Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 211005 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 605 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/... THE FRONT STALLED NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND HUMID SO THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE FAR WEST. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND WHETHER FLOODING WILL OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE MAINLY BEEN OVER THE SE/EAST PART OF THE CWA SO THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE FLOODING IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY. NEITHER THE NAM NOR GFS PUT OUT ANY HEAVY QPF IN THE CWA THRU 00Z THIS EVE SO NOT LEANING TOWARD A FLOOD WATCH. THE HUMID AIRMASS AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS SO ONLY EXPECT HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S FAR NE TO LOW TO MAYBE MID 80S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THRU SUN NIGHT TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AS WAVES OF CONVECTION OCCUR THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH A COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER WI/NRN IL AND MOVES ESE INTO THE CWA THEN END OF TONIGHT AND FRI. SOME OF THESE STORMS IN THE WEST COULD BE SEVERE TONIGHT AND FRI. SAT INTO SAT NIGHT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS SHOWN MOVING OVER THE AREA SO THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SAT AND SUN HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. HIGHS THESE DAYS IN THE SW MAY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ANY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN AND START TO GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY MEAN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM AND HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S COMMON. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME AREAS OF FOG AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP VISIBILITIES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE A AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SO WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AT THIS POINT. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM KCLE EASTWARD ACROSS KCAK INTO THE KYNG AREA. TRIED TO TIME THIS INTO THESE SITES. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER OHIO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. A LAND BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN

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