Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCLE 301747
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes are planned for the afternoon forecast. High
temperatures were raised slightly and cloud cover was lowered just
a tad. Excellent drying conditions prevail with the large
temperature dewpoint spread along with intense June sunshine.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax
this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a
cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will
likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance
for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity"
in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage.
Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is
low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a
couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the
area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.
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Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon. Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon. North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria. High pressure builds in again Saturday