Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261325 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 925 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the New England States will continue to move eastward through the day. This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. As the low moves across southern Ohio Thursday evening it will drag a cold front across the area. High pressure will spread southeast into the area by Friday night and linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning although high level clouds were spilling into the area from the north associated with convection near a frontal system moving into the central lakes. This high level moisture will continue to spill into the area however expect for the afternoon much of this will remain thin. Made minor tweaks to hourly temps but otherwise no changes. Previous Discussion... High pressure was located over the New England states early this morning and is expected to continue moving to the east. This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. Until the low arrives expect to see light winds with a gradual increase of high level cloud cover. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight with rain beginning to spread into NW Ohio by mid morning on Thursday. Still some uncertainty on how much thunder there will be Thursday afternoon as cloud cover helps to limit the instability. However it should be unstable enough for at least scattered thunder to develop. Temperatures today will be near seasonal levels with a lake breeze developing. So slightly cooler along the lakeshore. Increasing moisture levels ahead of the cold front and an increase in cloud cover should allow for warmer temperatures tonight with lows in the 60s. Cloud cover combined with the showers/thunderstorms will limit highs for most locations on Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 70s south to around 80 degrees across the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The same pattern continues as the next upper s/w will drop se across the cwa late Fri and Fri night with the models starting to differ as to whether the upper low will try and cut off over WV or not Fri night. Will maintain good chc pops Thu night and Fri then allow a small chc to linger over the se half of the cwa Fri night for the possibility of the upper low to try and stall. Likewise, there could be enough support from the upper trough in the east for an isolated shra to occur on Sat. High pressure builds in for Sat night to result in dry conditions. High temps look to run about 5 degrees below normal Fri and Sat as winds come out of the north to northeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large area of high pressure should try and dominate the region Sun and Mon then the models are hinting at a cold front dropping southeast into the area on Tue. Will keep the forecast dry until Tue then ramp up to chc pops Tue. Temps should moderate back close to normal for Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Patchy fog across inland locations has developed but it has remained away from TAF sites. At this point it appears we will be able to keep the mention out of the TAF`s. Other than a few cumulus across inland locations this afternoon there will be a gradual increase in high level cloud cover. Winds will be light and variable through mid morning then become southerly for inland locations. Speeds this afternoon will be under 6 knots. The exception will be along the lakeshore with an onshore west to northwest wind developing by early afternoon. This will only impact KERI and KCLE TAF sites. Speeds may touch 10 knots for a few hours during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Non-VFR due to low clouds through Friday and possibly into Saturday. && .MARINE... Light south then southwest winds will probably become variable for a while Thu into early Thu night until a low tracks east into Southern Ohio. This will cause winds to turn out of the NE and increase to 15 to 25 knots later Thu night and Fri before backing to north on Sat and diminishing into Sat night as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure over the lake Sun will keep winds light. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Adams

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