Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 211122 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 622 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA SHORTLY. IT IS SUPPOSED TO DRY OUT AT LOW LEVELS LATER TODAY AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTH AND FAR WEST FIRST. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... I WAS HOPING THE MODELS WOULD BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT ONCE AGAIN I AM DISAPPOINTED. THE NEW GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER TODAY AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED. THE ECMWF AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAVE ONLY BEEN MARGINALLY MORE CONSISTENT. THE BEST GUESS FOR TODAY IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS OCCURS. NW PA COULD REALISTICALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNSET ON TUESDAY. WILL RAMP PRECIP CHANCES UP TO THE CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY GET GOING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 50 DEGREES MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE A LOW MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING 8 TO 10 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z WITH ANOTHER 5 OR 6 DEGREE DROP OFF BY 12Z THURSDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESSES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL JUST GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS AS ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STILL WARM FROM TWO DAYS IN THE 50S. WILL END UP GOING WITH MORNING HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AS IT DID EARLIER AS THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU USE...BY 12Z THURSDAY ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW. BOTH MODELS QUICKLY BRING AN END TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS MODELS DIVERGE. ECMWF DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH SLOWER PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRATUS DECK UNDER DIRTY RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO IOWA. THAT SAID CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH...AND HAS REACHED NW OHIO. DO EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RISE TOO VFR TODAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAKE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BUT BY MID WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES DRIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. AS IT DOES THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AFTER THAT THINGS NOT SO CLEAR. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK LOW NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY WHILE GFS BACKS OFF NOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW IS WEAKER IN BOTH MODELS TODAY THAN YDY SO ONLY HAVE WINDS FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS...BUT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR GALES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.