Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 051334 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 934 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...SEFCOVIC MARINE...SEFCOVIC

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