Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 282344 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO (IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME. TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070 AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...DJB/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...ADAMS

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