Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 211016 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL. CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET. THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS

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