Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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594 FXUS61 KCLE 171100 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 600 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shift to the East Coast today, allowing a warm front to lift NE across the area late tonight. A strong low pressure system will track across the Lower Lakes Saturday, dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No significant changes for the 630 update. Original discussion... Dirty ridge centered over the Great Lakes will continue to slide east and move off the East Coast this evening. Overcast skies extend west into Illinois. As high shifts east will See some sun breaks as clouds gradually mix out this afternoon. But by then mid to upper level clouds will spread over the area ahead of approaching warm front. Expect temps to warm into the mid to upper 40s today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models continue in good agreement with intense low developing in the plains then tracking across the lower lakes Saturday. Tonight as the low tracks NE it will lift a warm front, now across the Lower Mississippi Valley, across the area late tonight into Saturday morning. Rain showers will spread NE across the forecast area overnight. Low tracks across the Lower Lakes Saturday. Nice LL jet develops ahead of the system as the 850mb winds increase to 50-70 knots by daybreak Saturday. Definitely enough lift to produce some thunderstorms. Expect widespread rain showers with temperatures warming into the 50s ahead of the arctic front. The sharp trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and early Sunday. The deepening surface low will likely track just north of Lake Erie with the boundary flow becoming northwest behind the cold front. Winds may exceed wind advisory criteria for a while Saturday night near Lake Erie. Strong to moderate cold advection is progged but it will take until the wee hours of the morning on Sunday to get cold enough for snow and perhaps not cold enough at the immediate lakeshore. The main short wave will be shifting east of the area Sunday morning and subsidence will increase. This leaves a relatively small window of opportunity for any heavier lake enhanced snow early Sunday. A second short wave is progged to drop across the eastern lakes late Sunday and the lake effect will flare back up, aided by some colder air aloft. The northwest flow would favor the inland areas of the snow belt Sunday but winds will likely back to west and southwest by Monday morning. This may place the better snow bands along the lakeshore and the city of Erie for a time until the lake snow shifts northeast on Monday. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Monday as ridging increases with highs in the 40s across northwest and north central Ohio. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperatures will continue to warm Monday night and Tuesday as the south flow increases ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures on Tuesday will approach or exceed 50. The models have been consistent in generating very little moisture/precip with the front. Temperatures will see saw back down Wednesday behind the front as the next short wave sprints across the eastern Great Lakes. Some lake effect snow is likely but subsidence will increase quickly as high pressure will build in by Thursday. The flow aloft will become more zonal until the next short wave drops across the lakes at the end of the week. Temperatures will remain somewhat below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Dirty ridge centered over the Great Lakes will drift to the East coast by evening. MVFR stratus deck will improve to VFR by early afternoon then start to scatter out by late afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns tonight through Saturday in -SHRA. Thunderstorms possible late Friday night and Saturday as arctic front moves across forecast area. Rain changes to snow early Sunday morning. Lake effect snow showers develops in the snowbelt Sunday and lingers into Monday.
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&& .MARINE... The northwest flow is winding down on Lake Erie and winds will veer to the north this morning, then gradually become southerly as the ridge axis moves east of the lakes. The south flow will increase significantly tonight as low pressure deepens over the midwest. The surface low will continue to deepen on Saturday and will track near Lake Erie Saturday afternoon/evening, probably just to the north of the lake. South winds will become southwest and low water is likely on the western basin. Winds will become west northwest as the low passes by and the associated cold front sweeps across the lake at which time gale force winds will develop late Saturday. The gales will continue into early Sunday on western Lake Erie and Sunday afternoon on eastern Lake Erie. The northwest flow will diminish to 15 to 20 knots or so Sunday and Sunday night and back to the southwest on Monday. The next cold front is due later Tuesday. Small craft advisories will be needed. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LEZ145>149-165>169. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for LEZ142>144-162>164.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB/Kosarik LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Kosarik

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