Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 010239 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 939 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER 03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017- 027>030-036-037-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...TK MARINE...KEC

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