Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250001 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 801 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of troughs will cross the region between Sunday and Monday bringing us below normal temperatures. High pressure will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A few small showers have popped up. Will maintain slight chc pops another few hours until the sun sets allowing diurnal peak to wane. Diurnal cumulus will fade this evening with clear/mostly clear skies for much of the night. As upper s/w trough for tomorrow nears, a few showers may start to develop in the snowbelt prior to 6am, but overall coverage really low. Lows into the 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A broad trough will be the main feature across the region for the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. This will yield temperatures that will be running upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Upper vort max spiraling across MN today will make its way across the lower lakes for Sunday. With its close proximity expecting shower development/isolated thunderstorms from north- central OH eastward. Main feature will likely pass early enough in the day that western areas will remain dry. Highs will be within a few degrees of 70 with breezy winds. By Sunday night temperatures aloft will definitely be cool enough for a lake enhancement scenario, but with the area between troughs/local ridging, did not want to go too high on precip chances across the snowbelt. In fact unsure how much activity we will have Monday morning with the next trough still north across the lakes until late afternoon. Have a large area of likely precip chances or better from Cleveland and Youngstown eastward as instability showers/ts will flare up by afternoon. There will be more upper 60s for highs and fewer 70s Monday. High pressure and ridging work eastward for Tuesday. Lingering showers east early and temperatures beginning to rebound across the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the second day in a row haven`t made many changes. Wednesday is still looking dry. The area will just be getting in the warmer southerly flow on the backside of the surface ridge. Southwesterly flow will then continue for a few days with lower level moisture steadily increasing. The new guidance continues to be in fair agreement with the low set to move over the western lakes late next week. The warm front from the low could begin to kick off a few showers and storms as early as Thursday. Have removed all mention from Wednesday night. Precip chances will then be needed into the weekend as surface dewpoints eventually make the upper 60s. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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A couple of showers between KCLE and KYNG this evening as a weak trough of low pressure moves through. The showers should diminish after sunset. Better looking trough over the upper midwest moving toward the area but it will arrive early Sunday morning at a time when one would think that precipitation chances would be at a minimum. The best chance for a shower Sunday morning would be up the lakeshore, perhaps near KERI, but given the low probability, will leave it out of the TAF forecast. VFR cumulus will develop again on Sunday, likely becoming broken (050-070) in the afternoon. Isolated showes are possible with brief MVFR conditions. West winds will become gusty again on Sunday. OUTLOOK...Chance of isolated MVFR in showers Monday into Tuesday morning with a trough aloft.
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&& .MARINE... Even though the buoys continue to report conditions below small craft criteria have been getting human reports of 5 foot waves. Have gone ahead and put up a small craft through the evening. Another small craft will likely be needed tomorrow as westerly winds should be even stronger. Mainly westerly flow will continue through Monday evening. A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday flipping the flow to the northwest or north. It`s not looking like winds will be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front. A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly winds finally returning. South to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Adams/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Kosarik/Kubina

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