Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCLE 220420 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1120 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS GO AWAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE AREAS WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS GOING IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE DEW POINTS DID DROP A LITTLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BUT SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE IT. WILL UPDATE THE HWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO TALK ABOUT DENSE FOG. THIS TIME OF YEAR THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WENT A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SOME MORNING FOG SUNDAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH SOME SUN THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. IF THE FOG STAYS TOO LONG TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS IN THE AREA. COULD BE A LITTLE WIND...NOT FORECASTING DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE. THE MODELS DON`T AGREE WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT QPF WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW KEPT THE POPS IN THE 20% RANGE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE BETTER. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL FRONT...NONE THE LESS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WENT WARMER FOR MONDAY THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND THERE AREN`T MANY CLOUDS IT WILL BE COOLER. USING THE OTHER MODELS SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE HPC/GRIDDED MOST GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS THE BEST AS THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND EVEN WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT TIMING. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS IT WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. GOODBYE FALL...HELLO WINTER. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE THE TRANSITION FROM THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY BUT 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1300 AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ALIGNED FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADING HOME ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME MVFR CIGS HANGING ON IN THE EAST BUT ITS CLEAR ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM CLE AND ERI...I EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR FOG AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. TOOK ALL SITES DOWN TO 1 OR 2SM BUT IT COULD CONCEIVABLY GO LOWER FOR A TIME. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROUBLE WILL COME FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS BY WEEKS END. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY AVIATION...LEINS MARINE...LOMBARDY
