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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181323
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BASED ON DEWPOINTS...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY SOUTH
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THE REST
OF THE DAY. PATCHY STRATUS AROUND TOL AND NW PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MIXING INCREASES NEW HOUR OR TWO.

S/W DROPPING SE TOWARD SW OH LATE TODAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE/NNE WIND SHOULD PROTECT THE LAKESHORE FROM ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA.  IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK