Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221412 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 912 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today producing scattered showers and well above normal temperatures. A strong cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in more seasonal conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor adjustments to temperatures with the mid morning forecast update. Temperatures remain on track, but starting to hedge toward the warmer end of guidance given current temps and expected evolution of upstream precipitation. Hi-res guidance continues to show line of showers over Indiana weakening as it moves east into Ohio over the next several hours. Guidance is still lagging an hour or two behind with respect to eastward progression of the precip. No changes to pops with this update, but may need to lower pops out of the categorical realm, given trends with little precip activity until late afternoon/evening and mainly along/east of the I-71 corridor. Also let the Dense Fog Advisory expire for NW PA. Original discussion... A warm front across Central Ohio is producing scattered showers across the entire area, as well as dense fog across the Eastern half of the forecast area. Expect the warm front to lift NE of the forecast area by this afternoon taking the showers with it. Will start to see some sun and the temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 50s. A few places could even see 60 degrees if we see enough sunshine. This is roughly 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Enjoy the warmer conditions because they are not going to last.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Models continue to move a low pressure system, now near Kansas City, across the Central Great Lakes early Tuesday. Expect rain to spread across the forecast area overnight ahead of the system The low will track NE across the Central Lakes early Tuesday, forcing another cold front across the forecast area. High temperatures for the day will be in the morning with slowly falling temps during the afternoon. Rain will begin to transition to rain snow mix or plain snow by Tuesday evening. Transition will be so late do not expect much in the way of accumulation on Tuesday. The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing low pressure in srn Quebec and New England with wrap around moisture and cold advection across the area. Temps at 850mb average around -7 to -8C on the NAM and ECMWF but are a couple degrees warmer on the GFS. Either way this will be low enough for snow showers across the area with the best chance of course in the snowbelt. Expect snow showers to persist through Wednesday and into Wednesday night in the snowbelt. Thursday high pressure will build in from the south. For now will continue dry with partly cloudy skies but confidence level is a bit below 100 percent given we will be experiencing warm advection/overrunning. As long as airmass is as dry as advertised partly cloudy will hold. Friday continue to look nice with a building upper ridge, high pressure to our east and dry air in place. Expect Wednesday and Thursday near normal Friday above normal with highs in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term trend shows an upper trough to our west and eventually moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. Confidence, mainly in timing is lower given differences in the new runs vs yday. Models now show less amplification with the system through the period resulting in a more progressive system vs a more extended period of precipitation. The GFS is faster with the moisture bring rain into the area Friday night. Both agree on Saturday being wet although the GFS being faster dries the west in the afternoon. Sunday best precip chances will be east although will continue with chance pops elsewhere. Monday with cold air in place will have pops for lake effect snow. Saturday temps above normal dropping to near or a bit below normal on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Expect conditions to gradually improve MVFR overnight as scattered showers move in from the west. should see a brief periods of VFR late this morning into the afternoon as a warm front lifts NE of the forecast area. Showers will develop from the west this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty winds by Tuesday. && .MARINE... No headlines expected through the forecast period although we do get close to southwest gales Tuesday evening. For today into tonight expect south/southeast flow turning southwest towards morning Tuesday. Speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday southwest flow will increase through the day to near 30 knots by evening as low pressure moves northeast through the central lakes. Winds will turn northwest behind the low decreasing to 10 to 20 knots by Wednesday morning. Winds will decrease further Wedneday night and Thursday as high pressure moves over the lakes. Friday look for south winds increasing to around 15 knots as high pressure covers the eastern seaboard and low pressure approaches the northern lakes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...DJB/TK LONG TERM...Adams/TK AVIATION...DJB MARINE...TK

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