Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261129 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 729 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will sag southward across the region today. High pressure is then expected to build across the area in the wake of the trough late this afternoon into tonight. The high will gradually weaken Wednesday into early Thursday. Another weakening cold front is expected to move to southern Ohio and stall by Thursday night. This boundary will wobble across Ohio Friday into the weekend as a couple pieces of jet energy pass overhead. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes have been made to temperatures and sky cover to reflect current trends. Previous discussion... Surface trough will move southward across the region today. However we are concerned that it will be slow enough to allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon into the evening across the southern County Warning Area (CWA). This will be the region that could see dewpoint values hold in the 60s. For the remainder of the region there will be a gradual decrease in the high level cloud cover. This should allow for a decent amount of sunshine across the north. Highs for the day will be cooler than recent days but with the dry ground most locations will warm well into the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Maybe a couple thunderstorms across the south this evening but then all locations should become dry as high pressure takes over. The high should dry things out enough to allow lows to range from the mid 50s inland NW PA and near the OH/PA border to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Another weakening cold front looks like it will arrive on Thursday with increased chances of thunderstorms. This boundary will attempt to move to southern Ohio and stall by Thursday night. This boundary will then wobble across Ohio on Friday as a piece of jet energy passes overhead. Scattered convection will be possible Friday into Friday night. Temperatures through the short term will be within a couple degrees of seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Had to retain a 20 to 30 percent chance of a shower/thunderstorm through the weekend. Leftover frontal boundary in the vicinity gets washed out over a number of days. Otherwise there is not too much else to trigger and support thunderstorms. Weak troughing remains across the Great Lakes with the upper ridge across the central Plains. Seasonal temperatures can be expected for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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High pressure will be building in across the terminals today. Winds have come around to the north and will stay that way for today. Light/variable winds can be expected tonight. Skies will consist of FEW/SCT at 5k feet floating under a SCT/BKN250 layer. While high deck inhibited any early morning BR of note for this morning...skies will clear across all but the far south tonight so BR is possible for Wednesday morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday and early morning BR.
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&& .MARINE... Wind shift to the north finally took place early this morning. This will be enough to pick up waves to around 3 feet. As the high builds in from the west winds will decrease for all but the far east end which will see winds back to the west for the afternoon. Otherwise through Saturday no small craft advisories are expected. High pressure in place until a front sags southward across the lake on Thursday. At that point winds will come around to the northeast as another high builds just north of the lake for Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Oudeman

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