Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201803 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 203 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TOLEDO AND FINDLAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AT ABOUT 50 MPH...CLEARING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 6 PM. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO LINES. INSTABILITY IS STILL LOW BUT WILL TRY TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NE OHIO. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S EAST OF I-75 IN THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW LINE SEGMENTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAK RECENTLY GUSTED TO 43 MPH BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE THE HIGHER END OF WHAT WE WILL SEE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE ERIE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND AS WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN. STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. RAN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS LIFTING NE OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT INTO SWRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR CHARLESTON WV. HEIGHT FALLS PRETTY MUCH DUE NORTH WHICH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS WHICH TRACK THE LOW NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMP FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. WENT UPPER 60S IN THE EAST BUT LOWER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF WE GET A FEW SUN BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FALL LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WITH DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NERN STATES TUESDAY...AND A LOW UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES. SERIES OF WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO JUST LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO -6C OVER LAKE ERIE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STILL NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME NUISANCE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF THE DAY LINGERING OVER THE SNOW BELT AREAS AS WE WILL HAVE A FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE DRY. THE GFS MODEL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MOVES A STRONG LOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND IF THAT OCCURRED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD GET SOME RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS OVERDONE...THE CANADIAN MODEL AND ECMWF AGREE...SO KEPT IT DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT LOCATED SANDUSKY TO MOUNT GILEAD AT 1745Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 40 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE EASTWARD NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LOCATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO LIFT OVERNIGHT WITH LOW END VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING. .OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... THE LAKE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ARE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WILL NOT END THE SMALL CRAFT AND THEN START IT UP AGAIN IN A FEW HOURS...JUST KEPT IT GOING. STILL SOME CONCERN ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END THAT THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALES TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE IN THE CANADIAN WATERS IF IT DID OCCUR. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT TIMES...THE EAST END WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD HELP DECREASE THE WINDS ON THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ148-149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...KIELTYKA

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