Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301747 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 147 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio Valley on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes are planned for the afternoon forecast. High temperatures were raised slightly and cloud cover was lowered just a tad. Excellent drying conditions prevail with the large temperature dewpoint spread along with intense June sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today. The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year. Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of sunshine with seasonable temps. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low chance pops Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity" in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage. Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this afternoon. Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through Friday afternoon. North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small craft advisory criteria. High pressure builds in again Saturday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...DJB

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