Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231743 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES. ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE. LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20 POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER. CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE THURSDAY FORECAST. THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/TK SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...MAYERS MARINE...KOSARIK

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