Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191148 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 648 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of lows and upper disturbances will move northeast across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into early next week. The pattern will remain mild through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Drizzle is finally starting to let up and likely only remains across far eastern OH/inland NW PA early this morning. Low cloud cover still extends back as far as Cincinnati and west to the NW IN/IL border. The low clouds will break up today with the ridge building overhead...but a stream of higher clouds have quickly overspread the lower OH Valley and will continue to spread northeast over the course of today. Far NE OH and NW PA may get a period of thinning...but it wouldn`t be until close to sunset. Temperatures as of 3 AM were running above normal highs for mid January. High temperatures will end up in the mid and upper 40s with a light southerly flow. No changes to the forecast with this early morning update...but temperatures will have to be watched. Guidance insists that even NW PA will get into the mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Next round of precipitation arrives tonight into early Friday morning. Upper low across the southern plains will open and shear out as it crosses the Great Lakes late Friday. Swath of higher moisture and lift associated with this wave will bring rain into the area toward midnight...reaching the Cleveland metro area around 5 or 6 am. This timing is slightly faster than previously thought. While far northeast OH/nw PA may touch freezing tonight...all others will remain above freezing and those that do are expected to rise again before the onset of the precip...therefore only rain. Models show the bulk of the rain and the deeper moisture to exit by midday/early afternoon...but concern would be for the possibility of drizzle hanging back again for the remainder of Friday. At any rate not expecting the clouds to depart anytime soon. By Saturday the next shortwave emerges with a similar fate. Have introduced a chance of showers Saturday. Do not think it will take much lift to squeeze out a few showers. Finally the ridge across the southeast U.S. gets displaced east Sunday as a strong shortwave crosses the southern Plains and proceeds east across the Gulf Coast states...before taking a turn northeast. A bit better model agreement today and have delayed the onset of precip chances Sunday. So far each shot of rainfall is not overly heavy and therefore not expecting any significant flooding issues. This entire time though...we retain unseasonably mild air for January. Highs will get above 50 for many Friday Saturday and Sunday. Lows will remain above freezing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models are still struggling to find common ground on the track of the system early next week. Seems to me that the key to the forecast is how quickly the surface low redevelops to the east coast on Monday. The ECMWF and CMC have the low near Norfolk VA by 18Z Monday while the GFS still has the low in Central West Virginia. In any case, the models are trending toward a track south and east of the forecast area. By Monday, our flow should be around from the northeast and if so, the forecast will need to be cooler than the current forecast. Locations near Lake Erie may not be much warmer than the upper 30s or lower 40s. Will trim forecast temps a few degrees Monday and it may need to be trimmed farther as we get more confident in the track. Given that it is mid January, it is remarkable that the air mass is so warm that there is not much risk of snow. Some wet snow or a few sleet pellets may mix in Monday night into Tuesday, probably mostly in the hills of northeast OH and northwest PA. The next low in a series of strong short waves from the southwest is progged to come quickly be Wednesday. The system may try to stay west of the area initially but cannot rule out showers and will have a low pop chance Wednesday. It should still be mild with highs well in the 40s or perhaps 50s if the southwest flow is warm enough with little in the way of showers. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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The IFR ceilings will be slow to improve today as they are locked in under the subsidence inversion with high pressure overhead. Clearing is advancing only about 15 mph but may accelerate somewhat during the midday and afternoon hours. When the low clouds break, it will be VFR with mid and high clouds. Rain and fog and low ceilings will develop again later tonight and early Friday from southwest to northeast as a warm front lifts north across the area Friday morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday. Non-VFR developing again on Sunday continuing into Monday.
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&& .MARINE... West to southwest winds remained rather brisk on the east half of Lake Erie this morning but the winds should back and diminish today as high pressure slides across the Ohio Valley. Winds will shift more of an east to southeast direction by late afternoon or during the evening ahead of a weak area of low pressure and a warm front. The system should cross Lake Erie Friday morning and winds will back to the south southwest again Friday afternoon into Saturday but remain rather light. Low pressure is expected to track across the Gulf Coast states and east coast early next week. This will bring a rather lengthy period of east to northeast flow from Saturday night through Monday. Northeast winds may get strong enough for a small craft advisory Sunday into Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Kosarik

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