Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 020524 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 124 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT UPDATE. ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING. TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM. MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF. FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC

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