Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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804 FXUS61 KCLE 011400 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Line of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, will move across the eastern third of the County Warning Area (CWA) this morning. The cold front is moving into NW OH as of 14Z and is expected to continue a slow eastward movement through the day. There could be just enough clearing and heating ahead of the front across the east to allow a few more showers/isolated thunder to redevelop. Not overly confident in the redevelopment but believe it is still worth a mention. previous discussion... Radar now showing a few showers over Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t been much QPF so far which isn`t surprising given surface dewpoints still no higher than the mid 50s. Not seeing any lightning further upstream anymore but there are some strong showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This feature will move across the local area by midday. Will go with scattered showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or so. Precip chances in the west will be over by midday but it will take till late day for the east to dry out completely. It is possible that some thunderstorms could develop in the east this afternoon as the front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be similar to the earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the area will see only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up to a quarter inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem reasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little further north. This brings the precip shield north across the southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S. 30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have used a blend of guidance temps during the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley. Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should remain south of the forecast area. The remainder of the extended forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Scattered rain showers with a few TSRA this morning as a cold front...just into the Toledo area...moves across the forecast area today. Expect front should be east of the forecast area by the afternoon push. Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves across the lake. It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots. Conditions should remain just below small craft advisory conditions. Conditions improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake. Quiet conditions continue through Sunday. Winds turn to the northeast Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley. Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the low. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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