Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 021725 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO NRN/CENTRAL IL. BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW. LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...TK

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