Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCLE 210242 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 942 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --QUICK UPDATE COMING FOR MINOR CHANGES. WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES...BUT NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS IN THIS EVENING. MODELS KEEP FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS BUT IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR...TEMPS COULD GET CHILLY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE MORNING WILL START CLOUDY BUT THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE AFTERNOON IS TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO THE SUBSIDENCE MAY TRY TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WE DEFINITELY MAY HAVE SOME AFTERNOON SUN. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN GOING WITH THE LOWER MOS GUIDANCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE NAM IS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS AND SREF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. DELAYED THE THREAT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS OF MOST MODELS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM OK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE MODELS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX THE RAIN WITH SNOW WET SNOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY ALL SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW I WOULD THINK THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES AT THE MOMENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND I WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... ON AND OFF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEST FLOW DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVE LIGHT FLOW UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AND AN EAST WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO PROBABLY BRING BACK A MARGINAL SCA FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WILL END THE SCA FOR A WHILE LATER SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE BUT AN INCREASING SW FLOW WED LOOKS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AGAIN AT SOME POINT. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT TIME FRAME SO NOT CONFIDENT AS TO WHEN THE SCA MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...BC/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LEINS MARINE...ADAMS
