Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 240722 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 322 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front over the midwest will lift north across the area this morning. Saturday, low pressure over Missouri will move northeast to near Chicago by Sunday morning. Sunday the low will continue northeast across the central Great Lakes.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain moving east across the area early today. If timing holds, the precip should move east of Ashtabula/Trumbull counties around 7am and out of NWRN PA around 8am. Have moved pops to categorical in the grids across the region through the early morning based on timing. Will also linger likely/chance pops in NWRN PA into mid morning in case timing is too fast. With the warm front north of the area for the late morning and afternoon...still believe there will be at least some sunshine. Will still hold onto 65 to 70% coverage but should yield a "partly sunny" forecast in the zones. Impressive warm advection took place from late yday and through the night. By 12Z 850mb temps should be +10 to +12C across the area. This along with the broken sunshine should get afternoon temps into the 60s. Early today models show a 50-60kt low level jet across the area. Winds drop off back to around 30kts later this afternoon. With good mixing expected it should be a breezy day with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tonight the warm front will be to our north but should begin to sag south towards morning possibly nudging back into the area. Believe for the most part we should remain dry with the focus for precip remaining north of the front. Will bring a slight chance into the northern counties after midnight and then increase to low chance pops extreme north towards dawn. Saturday GLFMX moisture will begin to get pulled north through the Mississippi Valley ahead of the low in Missouri. Looking at the NAM and GFS this deeper moisture doesnt quite reach into the area however it will be just to our west and south by 00Z Sunday. Still, enough moisture in the deep southerly flow to expect scattered showers. The nam also brings 500 j/kg of cape into the western counties during the afternoon. Best chances will be west so will have likely pops there and chance pops elsewhere. Will also have a chance of thunder where pops are likely. No big changes for the rest of the period. Saturday night and Sunday look wet as the Gulf moisture gets wrapped across the area. Sunday night the low weakens and the moisture begins moving northeast out of the area. Forcing is minimal so will continue lowering pops through the night west to east. Monday will still keep chance pops in place as low pressure moves across southern Missouri. Temps on the mild side.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Extended pattern continues to be in a state of flux with fairly rapid transitions between shortwave troughs and minor ridging taking place. This means overall weather pattern will be fluctuating between dry periods and wet periods. Polar jet stream is progged to remain north of the area keeping any arctic air masses from pushing south into the forecast area for the foreseeable future. First in a series of upper level trough/ridge pairs moves east into the area Tuesday. This trough will develop a weak positive vorticity maximum and result in a weak surface low pressure system that will move east across the Ohio valley region. Limited moisture with the features will move east across the forecast area as well on Tuesday. Hence, will keep a mention of showers in the forecast during the day pulling out to the east Tuesday night as the upper level and surface ridge builds east. Upper level ridge amplifies Wednesday and Thursday helping to build surface ridge over the area. Then, by Thursday, next trough diving southeast out of the northern Rockies evolves into a potent upper level low pressure system that becomes vertically stacked over Arkansas. Once the low pressure system rounds the base of the mean trough, it lifts northeast toward the area to bring more rain to the area by Friday. As mentioned, temperatures should remain mild through the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A warm front will begin to lift north across the area this morning while an upper level feature slides east along the warm frontal boundary. Showers will move east with the upper level feature early this morning and then end by day break. Ceilings should remain VFR through the duration of the rainfall. Main issue will be the development of wind shear between 1500 and 2000 feet and winds increase to 45 to 50 knots along the warm front. Once warm front lifts north, stronger winds will mix down to the surface ending threat for wind shear this morning. As upper level feature moves east and warm front lifts north, we should see improving ceilings to 25000 feet. Then, Another shot of low level moisture will push east over the area tonight dropping ceilings down to around 2500 feet. Winds will diminish tonight. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday and Sunday. Non VFR possible again Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lake winds will be on the increase today as a warm front lifts north of the area. Warm air advection in the wake of the warm front will likely be strong enough to push the cold dome over the lake to the north allowing some of the wind to mix down to the surface. Not expecting small craft advisory criteria to be met due to short fetch over the nearshore waters. Winds diminish overnight as warm front becomes stationary and tries to push back south as a back door cold front late tonight. Northeast flow develops Saturday and will likely need a small craft advisory headline by Saturday morning continuing into Sunday morning. Warm front lifts back north Sunday allowing winds to diminish once again. Generally light and variable winds Monday into Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Lombardy

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.