Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 161659 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1259 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DECIDED TO DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. MANY AREAS STILL HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AT THIS HOUR. IT WILL TAKE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR A TRUE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TO BRING A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWN SLOPING AIR. SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD WARM ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NRN OHIO...UPPER 50S IN NW PA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...MAINLY NW OHIO. A TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE PRETTY LEAN ON MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH BEING WEAKER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHILE THE NAM/GFS ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONGER COLD PUSH. SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATTER SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY SO HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER CAMP TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CHOICE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP/TEMPERATURES SO WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS ALREADY EXHIBITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. WILL USE A MIX OF ECMWF GFS MOS AND HPC GRAPHICS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASICALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS DRIES OUT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FROM AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL FALL AT 3AM AS WINDS/WAVES DECREASE ON THE LAKE. FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY EXPECTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WAVES TO 4 FEET OR SLIGHTLY MORE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...JAMISON MARINE...TK

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