Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230720 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front will move southeast across the region monday then high pressure rebuilds over ohio for tuesday into thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
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The weak cold front moving thru the area early this morning will provide little in the way of relief from the heat and humidity. There could be an isolated shra/tsra in the east this morning and in the south this afternoon as a weak upper trough is just east of the area which could support some convection. The big issue today is the heat index that will be rising to around or slightly above 100 for the west 3/5ths of the cwa. A heat advisory continues for this area thru tomorrow for the marginal situation. Highs today should run from the upper 80s in the far east to the lower to locally mid 90s for the central and western counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The heat and humidity will continue thru sun then some moderating of temps back closer to normal will occur starting mon. Highs by mon should just be in the 80s. The short term drought affecting most of the cwa will get a little worse as most of the area will not see significant rainfall from the next front affecting the area late sun into mon. Luckily, the pattern does show some change toward the latter part of next week that should bring a better chance for rain. There appears enough instability and shear for some strong storms with the system late sun into mon morning with an isolated severe storm also possible but mainly for the nw part of the cwa.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THe long term forecast begins on Tuesday on the back side of an upper level trough. Strong AVA behind this trough will create zonal flow aloft through Thursday and support high pressure at the surface over the Great Lakes. Like much of this summer, temperatures will be on the rise with this stable air mass and above average temperatures should be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given long term models` trend in forecast towards climatology, forecast only reflects mid to upper 80s at this time, but if models continue to keep high pressure in place can see 90s being adding in the near future. For Thursday and beyond, the long term models differ just a bit. Both models show high pressure moving out as a low moves to the south of the CWA. The GFS has a weaker but faster low that reaches southern Ohio early Thursday morning with another disturbance moving through the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has a stronger but slower low pressure system reach SW Ohio Friday afternoon but has a more defined warm front ahead of it that can bring precipitation on Thursday. Then the models keep the area somewhat active and wet through Saturday. Cannot say that I am all that confident in either solution as this summer has been very dry with many areas attaining moderate drought status. But with the long term model solutions have a slight chance to chance pop mention for early Thursday morning through the rest of the long term but not too excited about needed rainfall yet. Temperatures for this second half of the long term will be around climatology in the low 80s, could be a touch cooler if the period is really wet and active.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A fairly hot, moist, and stable atmosphere has settled over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this morning as the region is on the northeast edge of an upper level ridge. As noted by the 00z soundings from KDTX and KILN, the atmosphere remains warm from about 850mb to 925mb and will leave an inversion in place overnight. With the inversion aloft and radiational cooling allowing surface temperature to fall to near the dew points, some MVFR fog/mist should form before dawn on Saturday at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG as the boundary layer decouples and there is some additional moisture from convection near these areas on Thursday and/or Friday. There are some pesky clouds hovering around KCAK and could possibly move into the KYNG airspace which would limit the timing of MVFR conditions but perhaps by an hour or two. A bit less confident on the reduced visibilities at KCLE as rain has missed the metro area the past few days so have a tempo as the atmosphere is so moist fog may form but can also fog development not happening. Left out any fog mention at KERI as it has been the driest of all of the terminals with dew points only in the upper 60s and should remain somewhat windy next to the lake. As for the rest of Saturday, a very weak and shallow cold front centered across central lower Michigan will make it to northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania sometime Saturday morning. This front will not spark any convection and will do very little other than shift the wind direction to just north of west. Skies will remain mainly clear for Saturday. OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE...
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A weak and shallow cold front located across central lower Michigan into lower Ontario will make its way across Lake Erie this morning. Winds will shift from the SW/WSW to NW/WNW for Saturday. Winds should be fairly light with 10 knots or less expected. For Sunday, high pressure builds in and winds will be southerly and 10 knots or less but will increase late and shift to more westerly ahead of another but much stronger cold front. There could be a chance for a small craft advisory behind this cold front as waves will be on the increase with the stronger westerly winds but still looks like 2 to 4 feet will be the maximum as of now. High pressure then moves in late Monday and winds will be light and variable 10 knots or less with waves 2 feet or less.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Ohz003-006>011-017>021- 027>031-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Adams NEAR TERM...Adams SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic

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