Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271747 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 147 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today while high pressure remains to the north over lower Ontario. Low pressure over the central plains will then move northeast extending a warm front over the area Saturday night before moving over the area on Sunday. This low will depart the area by Monday morning dragging a cold front behind it. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cloud cover should slowly dissipate across inland locations this afternoon with sunny conditions near the lakeshore. Had to nudge highs up slightly to reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface low over the central plains will trek northeast and will allow for the warm front to move north allowing for the next round of precipitation on Sunday. The timing of the warm front and surface low have slowed a bit so precipitation will likely not begin in the area until after daybreak on Sunday. Taking a good look at some of the hi-res models, it seems that the area will get two round of precipitation with the first being another round of decaying convection this time from Saturday`s severe weather over the middle Mississippi river valley. Once the first round clears, the second round will be with the surface low and the subsequent cold front. It there is sufficient time for the atmosphere to recover, there is the potential for some more robust storms, but there are still plenty of ifs at this point in time. Temperatures for Sunday look seasonable with convection counteracting any warm air entering the region. The surface low that impacts the area for Sunday will be out of the area for Monday so a dry forecast seems reasonable at this time for the holiday. However, this low begins to stall and deepen over Ontario and is progged to extend a wave of energy through the area on Tuesday, giving the region another chance for some rain. Tuesday doesn`t seem like a washout at this point but some of this rain may linger into the long term forecast period as well. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday also look to be around normal in the 70s with largely neutral advection over the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term brings us into the first part of June. Temperatures will still fall short of normals, but not by too much, with an upper trough that we cannot shake across the Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft across the local area. A trough moves across the lower lakes for Wednesday with another possible brushing far NE OH/NW PA Thursday. So, low precip chances remain for Wednesday, but the remainder of the work week appears to be dry for now. By Friday surface high should be more centered over the Ohio Valley with the low and troughiness beginning to pull out across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Still some MVFR ceilings across inland locations through 20z or so. Then all locations should be VFR. Will keep a 35000-4500 foot ceiling across inland locations until late afternoon. Otherwise light east winds are expected for inland locations. Northerly winds are expected closer to the lakeshore. Winds at all sites will become southeast overnight but speeds should remain under 10 knots. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region from the southwest as a warm front lifts across northern Ohio on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms may reach KFDY area around 13z then slowly spread northeastward into the afternoon. Cold front arrives during the evening with another round of thunder possible. OUTLOOK...Areas non-VFR conditions Sunday night with showers/thunderstorms. Non-VFR again possible Monday night through Thursday in showers/thunderstorms as an upper level trough persists over the central Great Lakes.
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&& .MARINE... While a weak low crosses central Ohio today, high pressure will reside across the lake with fair conditions after this mornings showers pass. This will continue to be the case into Sunday morning. On Sunday, though, low pressure will track across IL/IN and toward the western basin of the lake by evening. East-northeast winds will come around to the south and then shift to the west Sunday night. Winds are not overly strong, but do pick up Sunday night in the wake of the cold front. The lake will remain fairly stable limiting the winds Monday and Tuesday, but the possibility exists for small craft advisory conditions with the west- southwest flow across the far east end. A trough is expected to cross the lake for Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Oudeman

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