Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242207 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 607 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. The weak front will move through the region Thursday evening. Weak high pressure with slightly cooler and less humid air will overspread the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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No changes to the forecast for tonight. We will be closely watching the storms just to our west. Unclear the degree of threat for the I-75 corridor...but a warning or two is not out of the question. Dewpoints have risen out west. Previous discussion...A diffuse warm front is located from central Indiana to southern Ohio. The front will move across the region tonight and advect much more humid air back into the region. Dewpoints will rise into the 70s in many locations. The return of sultry conditions will be accompanied by a chance of showers and thunderstorms but diurnal timing of the front is not optimal for strengthening convection. Low LCL heights and sufficient 0-1km shear near IND has produced some impressive rotational signatures on radar. This could be a concern over the next few hours as the warm frontal boundary lifts toward the region with high surface dewpoints. Overnight low temperatures will be elevated given the increase in humidity and cloud cover. Convective activity that overspreads the region this evening will diminish after midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The main forecast problem during this period is assessing the likelihood of severe weather Thursday afternoon as the cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The region will have plenty of MLCAPE(greater than 2000 j/kg) as temperatures rise to near 90F and dewpoints reach the mid 70s. 0-6km wind shear rises to the 30-40knots which should help organize and sustain the convection that is expected to develop over northern Ohio by early to mid afternoon. We can expect some bowing line segments with damaging winds being the most likely threat. Deep tropical moisture will again be in place in this air mass as PW values reach near 2.0 inches. Intense convection will likely produce torrential rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour and produce localized flooding. Heat Indices will reach the upper 90s making it feel quite sultry near the end of a very warm August. The front will drop south across the region Thursday evening and lingering showers and thunderstorms should end near midnight. Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region behind the front but no quick drying is expected since cold advection is weak. For the weekend upper level ridging builds over the mid Atlantic states which should produce dry stable conditions across the region will a gradual increase in heat and humidity. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change in the extended period. Sunday will be hot and humid with temps in the mid to upper 80s. But a weak frontal boundary will move across the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. For now will keep low chance pops going...mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure builds south over the area Monday and holds fast into the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Scattered showers/TSRA moving across central Indiana will move across the forecast area this afternoon/evening. Not sure how far east TSRA will make it since moving into more stable environment. Should diminish significantly after sunset. Warm into SW Indiana...forecast to lift NE over the area overnight. Expect widespread MVFR with areas of IFR with the front overnight. Better chance for convection tomorrow afternoon as we are in the warm sector and capes increase to over 2k j/kg. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... South winds will turn to the southwest overnight as a warm front across the Mid Mississippi Valley lifts NE of the Lake. Better chance for convection tomorrow afternoon and evening as capes rise to above 2000 J/kg. Cold front will move across the lake Thursday night. Small craft advisory will likely be needed at least in the winds turn to West at 15 to 20 knots. Lake quiets down Friday afternoon as high pressure builds over the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaPlante NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...LaPlante/Oudeman LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.