Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 030455 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will shift to the east coast tonight allowing high pressure to begin building in from the southwest. The high will move over the local area Saturday night and move to the east coast on Sunday. A weak warm front will lift north across the area Sunday night with another high briefly building in on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The rain and snow showers have dissipated across the area as of 9 PM. Have cut back on PoPs over the next few hours as well as precipitation amounts across northwest PA. We should see a band of precipitation (snow inland and a rain/snow mix along the lake shore) develop late tonight across northwest PA as there will be a brief window with a Lake Huron connection. However, the combination of some warm-air advection, a lowering inversion height, and some directional shear will prevent any significant snowfall from occurring. The higher elevations of northwest PA could see an inch or two by morning, but wouldn`t really expect anything more than that. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The lake effect will continue through Saturday night but will really begin to taper the precip off from west to east on Saturday as the inversion lowers. By 00z Sunday the snow showers should be confined mainly to NW PA. After daybreak Saturday accums will be localized with no more than another inch or two any given location. The surface ridge will move through early Sunday and we should be able to squeak out a dry morning. A warm front will lift across the area later in the day and bring with another period of precip. Temps and low level thicknesses may remain cold enough for most of the precip to start as snow or mixed precip. The precip could stay mostly snow in the north but the models warm the southern half of the area enough for a change to rain. Fortunately QPF amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch with the precip generally lasting for a period of 6 to 9 hours most areas. Another high will scoot east across the area on Monday keeping the area dry. Big model differences begin to take shape at the every end of the short term period. Lot`s of uncertainty about precip early Tuesday and will let later shifts take a look at that. Have used a blend of guidance for temps. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Potentially big changes coming up in the extended periods. Another deep digging upper level trough will rotate south into the western United States and then push east across the rest of the country. This feature has the potential to bring some of the coldest air of the season to the forecast area by the middle to latter part of next week. The big caution is the timing of the arrival of the cold air mass. The European model suggests a deep diving panhandle hook low pressure system will move east across the Ohio Valley allowing the arctic air to plunge southeast into the area Thursday night. Whereas, the GFS model suggests surface low pressure will develop and then strengthen over the delta region of the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday afternoon and track northeast across the Ohio Valley. This track will allow the arctic air to arrive Wednesday night. The thinking is to come up with a solution some where in the middle of the two models until a better agreement in timing is achieved. Temperatures at 850 MB are expected to drop to between -16 C and -18 C by Thursday evening. This will set-up extreme instability over the lake. Not only that, wrap around moisture will slide south across the area from the surface trough Thursday night. The combination of the arctic air and available moisture in concert with the lake moisture, there is the possibility for another significant lake effect snow event in the northeast snowbelt if all of these ingredients come together. A big caution is if the air mass remains as cold as the models suggest and does not modify considerably with time over the lakes. And, this all depends on where the winds setup for lake effect bands to develop. There has been some consistency in the models over the last few days that the event can occur. For the entire area, the question remains as to how cold it will get during the peak of the cold air mass. Highs may not get out of the 20s by Friday and overnight lows in the teens Friday and Saturday mornings. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Marginal lake effect conditions will continue thru saturday but any rain or snow showers should mostly just affect ERI. Mix of vfr and mvfr cigs should continue to lower some the rest of tonight into sat morning but should still stay mostly mvfr except may higher end ifr at yng. A little improvement in cigs is expected by late sat afternoon but inversion should keep cigs bkn to ovc with mix of mvfr and vfr. OUTLOOK...Mostly mvfr cigs much of the time thru wed with areas of rain and snow.
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&& .MARINE... Small craft advisory will remain in effect through tomorrow morning for all but the west end of the lake. Winds will remain between 15 and 25 knots on the lake through the night and this will keep the waves up as well. Winds finally start to diminish Saturday and continue through Sunday as high pressure builds across the area. Generally light flow is expected across the lake Monday and then begins to increase out of the southeast by Tuesday well in advance of the next storm system. As low pressure moves northeast across the area, winds diminish again on Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mottice SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Adams/Lombardy

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