Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 231919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
High pressure will continue to work east across the region tonight
and Monday as a cold front settles south into the Great Lakes. High
pressure will regain control over the region as the front lifts back
north Monday night. Low pressure will track from the southern Plains
Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front
through the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Very quiet near term as high pressure is sandwiched over the region
by an upper low across the SE US and an arctic front settling into
the northern Great Lakes. Little sensible weather concerns aside
from some high cirrus skirting the southern part of the area from
the southeast US system. Temps overnight should drop into the
low/mid 40s. Forecasted lows near MOS guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Short term period continues quiet as high pressure remains
entrenched across the region. Dry conditions are expected through
Monday evening. Southern stream upper low will eject along the east
coast Monday night into Tuesday. This may bring some rain showers to
NW PA and extreme NE OH late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon,
so will keep inherited slight chance/low chances pops. Dry
conditions expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as ridging
continues. A sharp upper trough/surface low will swing from the
southern Plains into the western Great Lakes Wednesday/Wednesday
night, bringing a cold front towards the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of the front. Models seem
to be a bit slower with the front, so trimmed back pops to west of
the OH-13 corridor after midnight Wednesday night. Warm, southerly
flow will keep temperatures above normal through the period. Kept
highs generally a degree or two above MOS Tuesday and Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday begins with a cold front just to our west. Models take the
front across the area during the day so will have chance pops mainly
west in the morning and mainly east in the afternoon. The low will
be moving nne so dont think wrap around moisture will get into the
area for afternoon/evening. Next chance of precip will come Friday
night as a warm front moves into/through the area. Will need to hang
onto chance pops Saturday but mainly for the morning. Expect
increasing sun Saturday as the warm sector overspreads the area.
Will continue chance pops Saturday night and Sunday but with the
area in the warm sector would expect only scattered coverage.
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure and dry air across the region will allow VFR
conditions to persist through the period. High level cirrus
however will increase from the south...mainly after 00z this
OUTLOOK...Possibly non-VFR over the east on Tuesday and entire
Winds will remain light from the east to southeast overnight with
high pressure over the lake. A weak cold front will drop south
across the lake under the ridge overnight and should stall across
northern Ohio Monday morning. For the day Monday strong high
pressure centered from northern Ontario to Quebec will tighten the
pressure gradient on the lake. As a result east winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots. Waves should build to at least 3 feet and may
approach small craft criteria central and western basins. Winds will
shift southeast Monday night into Tuesday and decrease a bit as the
pressure gradient weakens. Winds will veer to south Wednesday night
in response to low pressure moving into the central lakes. A cold
front extending south from the low will pass west to east across
Lake Erie Thursday veering winds to the southwest. High pressure
will build in from the west on Friday