Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 291143 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 743 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS IN STORE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MOISTURE TAKES ITS TIME MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS TO UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT SO QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD MAINLY RAIN INTO THE AREA. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER FEATURES BUT THE TIMING IS STILL VERY DIFFERENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER BY AT LEAST 12 HOURS. THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY AND OF COURSE THE EUROPEAN DOESN`T HAVE IT BUILDING IN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES DIDN`T CHANGE THE POPS TOO MUCH EXCEPT LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. IF THE TREND CONTINUES THAT THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY BE DRY. THE AIRMASS SEEMS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY SO ADDED THAT MENTION. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. SOME MODELS HINTING AT THE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THIS WILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR SO WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR CLE...CAK...YNG AND ERI. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE IFR CEILINGS...NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THAT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CEILINGS OCCURRING NOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. .OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A RIDGE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. THE CONCERN IS IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALES. THE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE WINDS JUST BELOW GALES. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE UNDER 30 KNOTS. WITH THE ICE STARTING TO BREAK UP ON THE LAKE THIS WIND WILL MOVE SOME OF IT AROUND AND ALSO HELP TO BREAK IT UP. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA

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