Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250544 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 144 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will continue to support fair weather through Wednesday. Warm moist air will stream into the area for the later half of the work week. This will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal in the 80s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest dew points only in the lower 50s...low temperatures should drop well down into the 50s for most of the cwa. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The airmass will see an slight increase in moisture which by early afternoon could support some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. The southwest breeze will not be strong enough to suppress the lake breeze so look for an afternoon cool down in the northeast lakeshore corridor. Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm front lifts into the area. The dynamics are weak and the instability is modest, so could see more of scattered showers and isolated thunder. For Thursday we are looking at the best dynamics and instability for thunderstorms as an upper wave approaches. Temperatures will remain above average through the period with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm and humid airmass will get established over the area during the period. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will climb well into the 80s. Unfortunately will need to continue with precip chances the entire weekend. The models begin in decent agreement showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East Coast while low pressure will be centered in the Plains. This ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday and that is when the best chances for rain will be. Monday will a little cooler and less humid so rain chances will be more limited. Similar weather is expected for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie. High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the southwest wind should be around 10 knots. Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and KMFD. Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week. && .MARINE... A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances will increase again over the weekend as a warm and humid airmass settles over the region. Expect onshore flow to develop in the nearshore waters each afternoon. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jamison NEAR TERM...Jamison SHORT TERM...Jamison LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Kubina

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