Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011724 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 124 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 1 PM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM MARION-AKRON-WARREN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DID UPGRADE SOUTHERN OHIO TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY BUT MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS BETTER. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTH AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO IOWA SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. REFINED TIMING AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. ORIGINAL...FOLLOWED THE SREF/HRRR COMBO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS BECOMING MORE PATCHY AS THE BEST OVERRUNNING SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL BEGIN WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TAPER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAINLY SOUTH WITH CAPES 1000-1200J/KG ON BUFKIT NAM12 SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE INVOF THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY KGKJ TO KYNG TO KMFD/KMNN. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT THE SREF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN WITH PRECIP PULLING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL BEGIN WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL EXTREME NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT RAIN CHANCE COMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MODELS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARDS MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BOOST TO LIKELY AND CONTINUE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A WINTER PATTERN RATHER THAN A SPRING PATTERN. MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PULL OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND A RETURN BACK TO THE 70S AND UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR ERI TO NEAR FDY. NORTH OF THE FRONT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE MVFR SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVER ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR TSRA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. JUST PUT IN VCTS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW...BUT LOW SHOULD BE NEAR PIT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LONGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KEC/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...DJB MARINE...LOMBARDY

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