Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231747 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1247 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the central Great Lakes today will move northeast pulling a weak cold front south into the area this evening. The front will stall across central Ohio tonight then lift north as a warm front on Friday. Another area of low pressure will track out of the Plains and pull a strong cold front east across the area on Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold front is slowly settling south across Lake Erie with some clearing associated with it. A band of clouds with increasing instability is lingering over central and northeast Ohio. The front will continue to crawl southward today and stall and may be the focus for widely scattered convection mainly along and south of US route 30 where instability is greatest. Have made minor changes to temperatures and cloud cover. previous discussion: A rather weak frontal boundary extending from the sw Ontario peninsula to near TOL and northern Indiana will gradually make its way across the region during the afternoon with some minimal drying behind the boundary. Instability will be increasing during the day ahead of the front mainly over the southern counties and a chance of showers looks reasonable. Only minor changes were made to the forecast. Temperature records for today are listed below: Locations Record/Year Cleveland 66/2000 Toledo 65/2000 Mansfield 62/1985 and 1930 Akron/Canton 63/1906 Youngstown 66/1943 Erie, PA 65/1922 && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low level baroclinic zone tightens up this evening and begins to lift north ahead of low pressure tracking out of the Plains. Leading shortwave energy lifting out of the trough will stream across northwest Ohio and Lake Erie as the elevated front lifts north with showers expanding. Better moisture advection arrives in northwest Ohio towards 03Z with showers spreading eastward overnight. Surface warm front will be located over Lake Erie by Friday morning and we will spend the day in the warm sector ahead of the approaching system. Temperatures will soar on Friday with most models showing low clouds mixing out across all but northwest Ohio. The GFS is the exception to this and wants to hold onto more cloud cover but this seems unlikely given how far we are displaced from the low with the warm front well to the north. Highs are forecast to range from near 70 degrees in Toledo to mid and locally upper 70s in the east. We are forecasting record highs at all locations and a few sites may even try to break the all- time record high for the winter season. Removed chances of precipitation from all areas by mid-morning on Friday given the lack of moisture and forcing. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach from the west during the evening in advance of the strong cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms eastward to the Mansfield area with the Slight Risk including almost all of northern Ohio. Cloud cover is expected to be more extensive to the west which will limit instability but strong forcing for ascent is expected as the upper level low curls in from the west during the late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will arrive earlier in the day and expect a cap to be in place until a strong jet of nearly 90 knots at 500mb wraps in from the southwest leading to rapid storm development. Some discrete cells seem possible during the evening before organizing into more of a line somewhere east of the I-75 corridor. Damaging winds will be the primary threat but a few tornadoes are also a possibility given the strong shear and expected low LCL`s. Storms will approach our western counties after 8 PM and continue eastward overnight. Instability will wane through the evening and expecting to see a weakening trend with storms, especially after midnight. Unfortunately any stabilization of the boundary is expected to be rather shallow which means stronger downdrafts could still pose a threat of severe weather through much of the night. Temperatures will fall through the day on Saturday as the strong cold front comes through. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph behind the front, highest across northwest Ohio as a trough lingers across Michigan. Precipitation will diminish across most areas while lingering in the snow belt areas. P-type will be rain for the bulk of the day but will transition over to snow during the evening. It will take a few hours to develop, but eventually expect lake effect snow showers to increase during the overnight hours as instability increases over the lake bringing minor snow accumulations to higher portions of the snow belt. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure should be pushing up the oh valley sun bringing an end to the lake effect shsn by later in the day. The models show the main upper trough over the west monday that shifts east into the midwest by late wed. There are a series of weak s/w troughs moving across the region mon into wed so won`t fight the superblend guidance pops, thus keeping chc pops going mon thru tue with precip changing from a rain or snow threat to just rain by tue afternoon as temps warm well into the 40s or 50s. As the main trough moves into the midwest a more significant surface low should move out of the plains and across the lakes wed pulling a cold front across the cwa. The low and cold front should combine to produce widespread shra tue night and wed with lake effect shsn expected to develop wed night as temps drop below freezing. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Cold front is pushing south toward the lake shore and there is the possibility that this is about where it could stall before lifting back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Some lower ceilings and visibilities will be a problem overnight with some light drizzle and shower activity. As front lifts north of the area, clouds will scatter out at around 2500 feet for the rest of the day tomorrow ahead of the next strong cold front. Not expecting any thunderstorms through this forecast period but should arrive during the late afternoon evening Friday. Winds will flip around to a northeast component near the lake but remain primarily southwest overnight away from the lake. The winds will then increase to 15 to 25 knots during the day Friday ahead of the cold front from the southwest. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns Friday evening/overnight then mainly just snowbelt by later Saturday into Sunday. Areas on non-vfr Monday. && .MARINE... A cold front will drop across lake erie this afternoon veering winds from sw to north then ne for tonight then continuing to veer around to the south by fri afternoon as the front lifts back north across the lake. A deep low will move ne along the front across lake huron fri night pulling a cold front across lake erie shifting winds to sw then to west by later on sat as another cold front pushes across the lake. Winds should increase to 20 to 30 knots on sat then gradually diminish late sat night thru sun as high pressure moves up the oh valley. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...Adams AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Adams

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