Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301358 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 958 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FDY AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NWPA AND NEOH...WITH CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS STAYED OFFSHORE...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE WATER. A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE LOGIC REMAINS THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY MID-AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS..IN CONCERT WITH THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K FEET AGL...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE NICKEL HAIL OR LARGER. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE LAKESHORE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE. OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND EACH TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. && && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC/MAYERS LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA

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