Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 220823 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 423 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stalled frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity, not pushing out of our area until Sunday. The area will be vulnerable to showers and thunderstorms that track along and near the front. A second cold front accompanied by a compact upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. High pressure will finally arrive for Monday night through the first part of Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
First order of business is dealing with the early morning convection moving east-southeast out of IN and western OH. After that we will have to try and figure out what the afternoon/early evening might bring and what impact this mornings convection has on how that evolves. Most favorable track will keep the bulk of the heavier storms near and south of Findlay to Mt. Vernon this morning...tracking along a well defined moisture gradient. A decent portion of the stratiform rain will extend and track across the rest of northern OH this morning with embedded thunder. This wave is moving through fairly early and with decent lower and mid level flow throughout the day, especially across our southern half of counties, could see us re-group enough for new convection later this afternoon and into the early evening. Area remains under SPC`s Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for any storms that develop this afternoon. This morning poses more of a heavy rain threat for Findlay down to Marion as leading convective appendage may reach these areas and put down a quick inch. If this occurs and also if this afternoons storms develop in this same area, concern would turn to a flash flood threat. No plans yet for a flash flood watch. Otherwise any thunderstorm today has the potential for locally heavy rain with the amount of moisture in place. General trend expected through the evening hours tonight is for storms to sink southward, lingering longest across our southern third of counties. Convective allowing models show the late afternoon/evening development, but differ on placement, central or southern tier of counties. The humid conditions will continue with temperatures limited by substantial cloud cover. Upper 70s well east with debris cloudiness lingering into the afternoon to mid 80s back toward Findlay where they will be able to recover. Linger the highest precip chances across the east for Sunday. This will likely be more scattered in nature. Again the more robust storms will have the potential to be strong to severe with locally damaging wind the primary threat.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The trough aloft will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. Most of the models are in reasonably good agreement with a surface trough dropping across the eastern lakes early Monday and the secondary cold front later in the day or perhaps as late as Monday evening. Dew points will be dropping and the air mass is not progged to be all that cold aloft with 850 mb temps progged about 14C and 500 mb temps about -10C so lapse rates should not steepen too much. Will continue with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly east of I-71. Not sure whether Monday will be partly cloudy or perhaps become mostly cloudy. Will stick close to guidance temps, generally 75 to 80. High pressure will slide by on Tuesday with sunshine. Temperatures and dew points should be a bit below normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The surface high will shift east quickly mid week and the next week cold front looks as though it may advance across the western and northern lakes rather quickly on Wednesday. The front seems as though it may slow as it waits for the next short wave aloft to deepen the trough aloft. The front may not sag across Lake Erie until sometime Thursday, perhaps taking until Thursday night to clear the southern counties. Will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. If the front is slow enough, Wednesday could be warm. Will forecast mid 80s but it could be warmer given that 850 mb temps are progged 17-19C. The front should be south of the area by Friday and temperatures should dip back to a couple of degrees below normal to close out the work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Still carefully watching the evolution of complex of thunderstorms upstream across northern IL/IN. Latest thinking is the bulk of the heaviest storms/aviation restrictions will be across FDY/MFD and points south. North of there light/moderate SHRA with some embedded thunder. This will be going on during the morning hours with a brief lull in its wake. Possible re- development of scattered convection later in the afternoon from FDY to CAK to YNG, but still low chances in it actually affecting a terminal. Wind will vary in the vicinity of the convection, but overall flow will be light south except up toward ERI where they will likely get a flow off of the lake for a period of time today. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in early morning fog/mist or scattered TS. Non- VFR in early morning fog/mist may continue during the first half of the week. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Difficult marine forecast and a tricky weather day as a thunderstorm complex slides just south of Lake Erie this morning and the resultant meso low tracks across the lower Great Lakes today. This will result in moderate south to southwest winds this morning on the western basin ahead of the meso low, then a shift to the west to northwest. On the eastern half of the lake, winds may spend much of the day from the east and northeast. Wind speeds are not expected to be strong but thunderstorms and local effects could result in some moderate wind speeds. Not enough for a small craft advisory but mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms and shifting winds. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday but it will take a while for the northwest flow to develop on Lake Erie. A period of northwest to north winds Monday evening into Tuesday morning may approach small craft advisory conditions. High pressure will shift east of the lake by Tuesday night and winds should come around from the southwest by Wednesday ahead of the next front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Kosarik LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Kosarik

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.