Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231919 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to work east across the region tonight and Monday as a cold front settles south into the Great Lakes. High pressure will regain control over the region as the front lifts back north Monday night. Low pressure will track from the southern Plains Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Very quiet near term as high pressure is sandwiched over the region by an upper low across the SE US and an arctic front settling into the northern Great Lakes. Little sensible weather concerns aside from some high cirrus skirting the southern part of the area from the southeast US system. Temps overnight should drop into the low/mid 40s. Forecasted lows near MOS guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Short term period continues quiet as high pressure remains entrenched across the region. Dry conditions are expected through Monday evening. Southern stream upper low will eject along the east coast Monday night into Tuesday. This may bring some rain showers to NW PA and extreme NE OH late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, so will keep inherited slight chance/low chances pops. Dry conditions expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as ridging continues. A sharp upper trough/surface low will swing from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes Wednesday/Wednesday night, bringing a cold front towards the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of the front. Models seem to be a bit slower with the front, so trimmed back pops to west of the OH-13 corridor after midnight Wednesday night. Warm, southerly flow will keep temperatures above normal through the period. Kept highs generally a degree or two above MOS Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday begins with a cold front just to our west. Models take the front across the area during the day so will have chance pops mainly west in the morning and mainly east in the afternoon. The low will be moving nne so dont think wrap around moisture will get into the area for afternoon/evening. Next chance of precip will come Friday night as a warm front moves into/through the area. Will need to hang onto chance pops Saturday but mainly for the morning. Expect increasing sun Saturday as the warm sector overspreads the area. Will continue chance pops Saturday night and Sunday but with the area in the warm sector would expect only scattered coverage. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... High pressure and dry air across the region will allow VFR conditions to persist through the period. High level cirrus however will increase from the south...mainly after 00z this evening. OUTLOOK...Possibly non-VFR over the east on Tuesday and entire area Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light from the east to southeast overnight with high pressure over the lake. A weak cold front will drop south across the lake under the ridge overnight and should stall across northern Ohio Monday morning. For the day Monday strong high pressure centered from northern Ontario to Quebec will tighten the pressure gradient on the lake. As a result east winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Waves should build to at least 3 feet and may approach small craft criteria central and western basins. Winds will shift southeast Monday night into Tuesday and decrease a bit as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will veer to south Wednesday night in response to low pressure moving into the central lakes. A cold front extending south from the low will pass west to east across Lake Erie Thursday veering winds to the southwest. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK

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