Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261727 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOSER TO 5 OR 6 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPECTING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BY STRONG/APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... IN GENERAL THE AREA FOR THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO NW PA...THEREFORE THE 50/50 POP FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST TRIES TO PINPOINT THE PEAKS AND LULLS IN CONVECTION TIMING. FOR WEDNESDAY THIS MEANS A LULL TO START...WITH AGAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. NO BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EITHER...STILL 80S DAYTIME/60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PRETTY WARM DAY ON SATURDAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES HINGING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT ENDS UP. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING CONSIDERABLY COOLER IF THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER SO SUSPECT THE FRONT MAY NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. DESPITE THIS...DID LOWER HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKESHORE BY 4-7 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z. AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AFTER 20Z...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KTOL...WITH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING AS THIS AREA QUICKLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA...THEN RETURNING AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE OHIO WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WFO BUF NEAR TERM...WFO BUF SHORT TERM...WFO CLE LONG TERM...WFO CLE AVIATION...WFO BUF MARINE...WFO CLE/BUF

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