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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 090819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY TRACKING SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. AT 2 AM SNOW
HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6AM THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA REACHING NW PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER MUCH OF OUR OHIO AREA
AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. NORTHWEST OHIO STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA THAT WILL
GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH
RANGE WITH THE REST OF THE WARNING AREA 6 TO 8 INCHES.  FOR
DAYTIME SNOWFALL WILL GO WITH 4 TO 6 NEAR TOLEDO 2 TO 4
INCHES...CENTRAL AREAS AND AN INCH OR TWO FAR EAST. MODELS STILL
SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR BEING PULLED IN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE LOW.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND GETS WRAPPED UP INTO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SNOW COULD STILL
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...SO EVEN WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE
ENOUGH OF IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN LIKELY INTO FRIDAY
WITH MOST OF THIS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT BUT FLURRIES OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL
POSSIBLE WHEN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS OCCUR.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING TAF PERIOD FROM THE WEST WITH
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING. SOME STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE AT ERI
ONLY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN WINDS/FLOW SHIFT.

PREVIOUS TIMING STILL APPEARS TO WORK. HAVE SNOW STARTING AT
TOL/FDY BY 6 AM...CLE BY 8AM AND ERI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GO QUICKLY TO IFR AND STAY THAT WAY TOMORROW.
OCCASIONAL LIFR IN SNOW. WITH TRACK OF LOW FROM CVG TO NEAR
CLE...NORTH AND NW SIDE OF LOW EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. POSSIBLE DRY SLOT EAST OF THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THEN AS LOW BEGINS TO BE DRAWN EAST...MAKE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND BETTER VSBYS. WINDS EAST TO EAST- NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
HAVE LOW TRACKING BETWEEN CLE AND CAK...A VARIATION WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHICH DIRECTION AROUND THE DIAL THE WINDS TAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL SETTLING IN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIGHT WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF GALES LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKENS. A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...BC