Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301130 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 15C WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SPREADS OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE NORTH. CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURN AGAIN. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN NEAR 850MB ON FRIDAY AND INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YNG INTO PA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS THAN THE GFS BUT FEEL THE MOISTURE NEAR 850MB MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WE HAD IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WHATEVER SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEEM LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT GOING TO FORECAST AS HIGH A POP AS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FIX ON THE TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS MORE AMPLITUDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING...SKIES SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TODAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... ALMOST LIKE A FALL PATTERN DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE WITH FREQUENT FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING WEST FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE....AND WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLANDS TO CLEVELAND LATE IN THE DAY SO MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN LATER TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON FRIDAY BUT WE COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS MAY PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ012-089. PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ001. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...DJB/KOSARIK

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