Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251615 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1215 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken and shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track across the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area Wednesday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No changes for the 930 update... Original... High pressure will continue to affect the region today through Tuesday. Expecting clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds and daytime temps around 90. See climate section below for the records for today and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A pattern changes will bring an end to near record warmth during the middle of the week. A weak cold front will slide east across the forecast area on Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeast from the northern Great Lakes and deepens through Ontario/Quebec. Models continue a drying trend with the frontal passage, and have opted for only slight chance pops during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit tricky for Wednesday, contingent on the timing of the frontal passage across the area and the coverage of any precip. For now, have split the difference with a consensus raw guidance/MOS guidance blend, which yields highs in the low to mid 80s across the area. As cooler air filters in behind the front Wednesday night, lows will begin to return to more seasonable numbers, with mid 50s expected. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday night as surface high pressure slides across the region, with 850mb CAA and steadily falling 500mb heights. Highs on Thursday will remain in the mid/upper 60s across most of the area, with lows Thursday night in the upper 40s/low 50s, fairly in line with normal values. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A transitional weather pattern that saw a return to near normal conditions mid week will continue with a flip to below normal temperatures and increased precip chances next weekend. A strong shortwave will dive south through the Great Lakes Friday, with a surface low and attendant cold front pushing through the forecast area through Friday night. This will be accompanied by a seasonably cool Canadian airmass, with 850mb temps falling into the 0C to +3C range across the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Highs on Friday will only reach the mid/upper 60s, with low/mid 60s on Saturday. Continued with slight chance/low chance pops Friday through Saturday, especially across NE OH and NW PA, where lake enhanced rain showers are possible into Saturday night. Surface high pressure will build rather quickly eastward across the region Saturday night into Sunday, with return flow setting up by Sunday, with rising mid level heights and 850mb temps into early next week, with a subsequent return to near or slightly above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A transitional weather pattern that saw a return to near normal conditions mid week will continue with a flip to below normal temperatures and increased precip chances next weekend. A strong shortwave will dive south through the Great Lakes Friday, with a surface low and attendant cold front pushing through the forecast area through Friday night. This will be accompanied by a seasonably cool Canadian airmass, with 850mb temps falling into the 0C to +3C range across the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Highs on Friday will only reach the mid/upper 60s, with low/mid 60s on Saturday. Continued with slight chance/low chance pops Friday through Saturday, especially across NE OH and NW PA, where lake enhanced rain showers are possible into Saturday night. Surface high pressure will build rather quickly eastward across the region Saturday night into Sunday, with return flow setting up by Sunday, with rising mid level heights and 850mb temps into early next week, with a subsequent return to near or slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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VFR conditions with only cirrus will continue remainder of today. Lake breeze will develop along the lakeshore from CLE east this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog Tuesday morning. Non- VFR possible Wednesday evening/Thursday in shra/tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will usher in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake. Non-VFR possible Friday with secondary front.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet period on the lake through at least Wednesday morning, as high pressure keeps winds light over the lake. Onshore flow will set up during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday as a lake breeze develops. A cold front will push across the lake Wednesday afternoon, with winds increasing out of the north 10-15 knots Wednesday night. There could be some waves in the 3-5 ft range for a brief time Wednesday night, but confidence is on the low side for small craft conditions at this point. Winds will gradually subside as high pressure builds across the lake Thursday and Thursday night. Another cold front and accompanying surface low will move across the lake on Friday, with west winds becoming northerly in the 10-15 knot range by Friday night. && .CLIMATE... Upcoming records for today and Tuesday 25TH/26TH: TOL 91/1891 92/1998 CAK 92/1908 89/1900 MFD 88/2007 87/1998 CLE 88/2007 91/1998 ERI 89/1933 89/1998 YNG 91/2007 89/1934 && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...DJB/TK SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...TK MARINE...Greenawalt CLIMATE...

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