Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011146 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 746 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE A FACTOR. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK

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