Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCLE 250544
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
High pressure over the region will continue to support fair
weather through Wednesday. Warm moist air will stream into the
area for the later half of the work week. This will produce some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above
normal in the 80s.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which
will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest
dew points only in the lower 50s...low temperatures should drop well
down into the 50s for most of the cwa.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass will see an slight increase in moisture which by early
afternoon could support some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold
Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. The southwest breeze
will not be strong enough to suppress the lake breeze so look for
an afternoon cool down in the northeast lakeshore corridor.
Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts into the area. The dynamics are weak and the
instability is modest, so could see more of scattered showers and
isolated thunder. For Thursday we are looking at the best dynamics
and instability for thunderstorms as an upper wave approaches.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period with
highs in the 80s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm and humid airmass will get established over the area during
the period. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will climb well into the
80s. Unfortunately will need to continue with precip chances the
entire weekend. The models begin in decent agreement showing an
upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. At the
surface...high pressure will be centered off the East Coast while
low pressure will be centered in the Plains. This ridge will slide
off to the east on Sunday and that is when the best chances for rain
will be. Monday will a little cooler and less humid so rain chances
will be more limited. Similar weather is expected for Tuesday.
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.
Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again over the weekend as a warm and humid airmass
settles over the region. Expect onshore flow to develop in the
nearshore waters each afternoon.