Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 121120 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 620 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT AS MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IS HEADING UP TOWARD BUF`S AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FLURRIES OR BURSTS OF SNOW UP TOWARD ERIE AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY AND THIS FORECASTER SAW MINUS 11 ON THE WAY IN SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE GETTING OFF TO A VERY COLD START. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE WEST. EXPECTING A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... IT`S GOING TO FEEL LIKE LAST FEBRUARY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS VERY COLD AIR DESCENDS ON THE REGION. WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A LAKE HURON FETCH ALSO POSSIBLY GETTING SET UP. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AS WE ALWAYS SEEM TO FOCUS MORE ON INSTABILITY THAN MOISTURE. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT ON SATURDAY SO SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT WILL REALLY DICTATE HOW WELL THIS EVENT PANS OUT. RESIDENCE TIMES WILL ALSO BE SHORT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG NW FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FETCH WILL BE IDEAL FOR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING AS WELL. ON SATURDAY THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL BE ON THE GROUND SO DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW GROWTH TO BE VERY EFFICIENT AND THUS ACCUMS SHOULDN`T BE AS GREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD END SATURDAY EVENING. FRIGID TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS AT A COUPLE SITES ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY ITSELF SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO PRECISE TRACK. BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TRACKS SLOWLY EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT ERI WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTER NOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SNOWBELT THEN MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .MARINE... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO PRECISE TRACK. BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TRACKS SLOWLY EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ014-089. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...DJB

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