Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250449 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1249 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO SANDUSKY. THE RADAR RETURNS ARE MOSTLY ALOFT AT THE MOMENT BUT THE ECHOES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND SEVERAL OF OUR MESO MODELS POST SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS NW OHIO BY DAYBREAK. PROBABLY WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WORTH A MENTION. ALSO NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS ACROSS NW OHIO BASED ON THE THICKENING CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION... THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND 03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG 25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT TERMINALS WEST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE HOWEVER EXPECTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...STALL AND THEN DROP SOUTH. AGAIN THIS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY KFDY KTOL KMFD AND POSSIBLY KCAK MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. KMFD AND KFDY POSSIBLE MVFR WITH THE AFTERNOON PRECIP BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...TK MARINE...DJB

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