Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 022346 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 646 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TONIGHT WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF IT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OHIO TOT HE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OF TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR TO BECOMING CLEAR SKIES. SO THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARMING AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RISING BY SUNRISE WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SNOW TO RAIN. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING A 2 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MAY REACH AN INCH OR TWO WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. IMPACTS APPEAR MINOR AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON UNTREATED ELEVATED SURFACES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION OF RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AGAIN AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES MAX. DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE. WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40...MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30. A RETURN TO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...YET STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENTS. FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL BE NECESSARY TO WARM US UP FROM THE SINGLE/NEGATIVE DIGITS FROM THAT MORNING. WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELAXING. LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. IT WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME FEEL THE CLIMATOLOGY INFLUENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING THE SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MORE THAN IS LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN/SNOW COVER...SO FOR THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY. VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/VFR-MVFR SNOW. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHERE FZRA OR PL WILL BE POSSIBLE - MVFR/ISOLATED IFR. FINALLY ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CONTEND WITH TOO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE EVENING. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... WEST WINDS WILL WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CREATES STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 20KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS 15KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ010>012-020-021-030>032-038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ013-014-022-023-033-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ002-003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...JAMISON AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...JAMISON

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