Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020005 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 805 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AND RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG IT...BRINGING RAIN THEN PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM UPPER STATE NY TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES AS SUNDOWN APPROACHES. THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE30S. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE VA/NC COAST ON THURSDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE/THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE GOMEX WILL WILL LEAD TO A RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL INTERSECT THIS DEEP MOISTURE/PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FLOWING NORTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER PA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON TWO FRONTAL WAVES RIDING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO A SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES. A MULTI- MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER THE NW MTNS AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TRENDING WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL WET PERIOD AROUND 7-8 APRIL. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO PA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...IT SHOULD BE TO DRY FOR ANY REDUCING FOG/MIST TO FORM. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. OUTLOOK... THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING. SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/. REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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