Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160906 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 506 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. A STRING OF MAINLY DRY SUNNY DAYS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY NIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS. AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS. UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED. AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED/. 00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH NW PA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE HEAVY AT TIMES...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF BFD THEY SHOULD MVFR. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD TREK...AND SOME SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE SUNRISE. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z...AND AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. AT THE VERY LATEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX GUSTS SHOULDN`T EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...WITH MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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