Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271149 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 649 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will bring milder air up from the south through the middle of the week. Low pressure will track out of the Ohio Valley and north of the area during the middle of the week bringing a rainy period followed by a potent cold front late Wednesday. Much colder air is in store for late week, with sub-normal temperatures likely over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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All is well. Radar returns over the S are well aloft. 20deg dewpoint depressions are tough to overcome in only an hour. But, the rain will eventually work it`s way to the surface. Still chilly, so some flakes are still possible. Prev... clouds ahead of a wave of low pressure moving up from the southwest will thicken up this morning, but it is very dry at the surface this morning. The connection to the GOMEX is going to become thinner through the day as a shortwave over KSTL this morning zips to about KMDT this evening. This will allow little development and northward surge of moisture today. There should be some light rainfall eventually make it to the surface this afternoon. The temperatures should climb fast enough to keep it all rain - but will continue to just mention a sprinkle/flurry possible in the Laurels this morning. The temps are almost up to freezing at KJST - they have been rising very slightly overnight. If precip does start to work down, it will take some time to moisten the llvls up, and some wet-bulb effect plays into temps/p-type as well. Despite maxes about 10-15F warmer than Sunday thanks to the srly return flow, the slight wind and cooling/wet-bulb effect will probably keep it feeling chilly in the western and central-most counties where rain is likely. The southwest wind and drying moisture should prevent anything but a sprinkle in the SE. The deeper moisture creep northward into the northern mountains late in the day and the south should become drier.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Some sprinkles will linger over the northern mountains into the middle of the night, but most of the area and most of the night will be dry. Temps should remain about 10F above normals overnight. Low pressure deepening over the upper midwest Tuesday will push a warm front into the state and showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are expected in the afternoon. Temps on Tuesday will be another 10F higher than today thanks to the warm advection and morning sunshine - especially in the south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prominent southwest to westerly flow will dominate the long term period with several shortwave trofs dropping into the central U.S. and providing unsettled weather. On Wed, an upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more significant rainfall and some thunderstorms before a strong cold frontal passage. Yet another day like Saturday may be in store on Wednesday with storms before the temperatures drop quickly after frontal passage with flurries and gusty west winds replacing the warm air. SPC has the MRGL risk of severe thunderstorms over all the CTP forecast area and the SLGT risk nudges up to the Turnpike. Destabilization is the wild-card here. Have gone just slightly above MOS guidance for maxes on Wed peering into the recent past and seeing some under-estimated maxes the past few days. Colder and very breezy conditions are then in store for late week in NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns. Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from the NW. Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north. The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z TAFS sent. No major changes. Some high and mid level clouds across the south and west as of 6 AM. Earlier discussion below. As expected, a clear but breezy night in some spots at midnight. LLWS early today at BFD, and IPT, given wind max lifting just north of the region this morning. Some mid level clouds today, mainly across the south and west. Perhaps a brief sprinkle. Should remain VFR through 00Z Tuesday. Outlook... Tue...Rain showers/Sub-VFR conditions. Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions. LLWS poss. Chance of thunderstorms. Wed night...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds. Thu-Fri...Sub-VFR likely west in sct snow showers. NW winds. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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