Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281848 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 248 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current observations continue to indicate partly to mostly sunny skies across the region with sfc high pressure centered over the Middle Atlantic states. Thicker cu field is noted over the northern half of central PA. Regardless, no pcpn is expected today with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. IR satellite imagery shows wide north to south oriented bands of cirrus moving into western PA ahead of convection over Great Lakes region. This will spread east through the evening hours with little expected affect on sensible weather. The surface high will move east of the area tonight with another comfortable sleeping night in store with dewpoints still only in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... By Thursday the eastern US will be under a broad upper ridge, but close to the southern edge of the main westerlies. A warmer and more humid airmass will begin to advect into the region between the offshore high and a low moving north of the Gr Lakes. Deterministic models develop a fair amount of CAPE and mid level lapse rates are forecast in the 6-7C/km range, so an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is likely in a few spots. SPC Day 2 convective outlook has northwestern third of CWA in a marginal risk for severe and remainder of CWA in general thunder. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered at best and will likely be in the mid afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper pattern starts out with the broad ridge and high heights over the eastern US, before eventually becoming more broadly cyclonic, but still with heights remaining seasonably high as most shortwave energy slides through southern Canada. Friday will be warm and humid with diurnally driven showers/storms possible. The deterministic ECMWF/GFS both show the mid levels being relatively warm suggesting coverage will be on the scattered side. A cold front is progged to be entering the region Saturday and moving east of the CWA early Sunday, so we should see a better chance of more widespread rain. The front is expected to be weak, so temperatures behind it will not change much, just a bit of a break in the humidity for the second half of the weekend. Sunday Night into early Tuesday look mainly dry as high pressure builds over the region. The cold front will begin sliding back north as a warm front Tuesday into mid week, bringing renewed humidity and increased chances for the usual summertime showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley will supply mainly VFR conditions and light wind today through tonight and into Thursday morning. Localized vis restrictions from fog will possible again Thursday morning but should be less widespread than this morning. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa. Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible. Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Gartner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.