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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 071631
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL
EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SOUTHWEST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES
HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. A WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME
QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM LINK UP TO PRODUCE A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
THAT COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK OVER SE PORTION OF CWA AS DEEP
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS STRONGLY BACKING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NEW JERSEY
COASTS MAY GENERATE A BRIEF AREA OF STRATOCU INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
EARLY THISAFTERNOON. PERSISTENT STRATOCU LAYER IN CENTRAL MTNS
EXTENDING FROM KAOO-KUNV WILL MIX OUT AS SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE LOW EXTENDS SW-NE...LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
FOR NW HALF OF CWA.

MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S /THANKS TO THE
THICKER...LAYERED CLOUD COVER/...WHILE THE TYPICALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SW-NE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
EARLY SAT WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM /WITH AROUND A 5F SPREAD/ AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SLIDE SE FROM THE GLAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH BKN-OVC
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY...POPS WILL BE GENERALLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FAST MOVING NRN STREAM
JET WILL SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM HOWEVER
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FAIRLY FLAT...NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MOST OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY...WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE FIRST NRN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PA ON SAT AND POSSIBLY
STALL OVER THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT APPROACHES LATE
ON TUESDAY.

THE FIRST SRN STEAM WAVE...NOW PRODUCING WINTRY WEATHER OVER
TEXAS...WILL LIFT TO THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER PA. A SECOND
PRONOUNCED WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. HAVE INCLUDED WIDESPREAD HIER CHANCE
POPS AT THIS POINT WITH SOME INCREASED LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL GIVEN THE OBVIOUS LEVEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NARROW STRATOCU LAYER EXTENDING FROM KAOO-KUNV WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A BRIEF BOUT WITH MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE LOWER
SUSQ AS MOIST SE LOW LAYER FLOW FEEDS IN AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXITING THE CAROLINA COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN