050
FXUS61 KCTP 201719
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
119 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will feel like summer through midweek as a ridge of high
pressure at the surface and aloft maintains warm and mainly
dry conditions and light winds. A storm system moving north of
the Great Lakes will push its southward trailing cold front
through the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather returns
for most of the area to start this Holiday weekend, but wet
weather could return late Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A summerlike day is in progress across Central PA with plenty of
sunshine filtered by some high thin smoke plumes from Alberta
Wildfires. Very shallow cumulus sprouting on the ridges and most
of these will remain benign, but an axis of CAPE likely
exceeding 1000 J/KG may locally be released over the higher
northern and western terrain, and have left POPs around 20-25pct
range late this aftn and early eve for this.

Tonight will be similar to the last few nights, with perhaps
less of a recurrence of the nighttime stratus. Valley fog is
probable again tonight and will maintain the mention of patchy
fog. Min temps early Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60 will
likely be a bit milder than Mon AM as well .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures warm each day through Wednesday afternoon, with
this summer-like stretch of warm and mainly dry weather
continuing through Wednesday afternoon.

Periphery of upper level ridging/ring of fire type pattern
reaches central PA late Wednesday with enough moisture for a
more widespread chance of diurnally driven shower/tstorm
activity Wednesday evening. Still, most areas will remain dry
through 00z Thursday and it appears any organized activity will
hold off until after dark. SPC has painted a MRGL outlook for 2
of my northwest Counties for this potentiality, with general T
elsewhere. More widespread shower chances arrive late Wednesday
night and Thursday as cold front slowly sags across the region.
Best chance of widespread measurable rainfall comes Thursday
with this setup.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures remain on the warm side through the end of this
week as the cold front to come through on Thursday and then
stall out just south of PA on Friday. This will mean that the
chance for scattered showers and t-storms will remain in the
forecast for southern PA on the back side of that surface front.
High temperatures will remain in the mid 70s as we move through
Friday and into the weekend.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend with
regards to rain chances, but it appears that there is a chc
that our weather could remain unsettled. PoPs have been capped
at around 40 given the disagreement between model guidance for
the likelihood of showers and storms. The best looking day for
little rain is currently Sunday with upper level ridging
building in ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas in the SE are currently holding onto low clouds and
borderline MVFR conditions to begin the afternoon. Elsewhere,
widespread VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day
with light winds. Model guidance shows the potential for a stray
thunderstorm across the northern tier later this afternoon, but
confidence+coverage remains too low to include in the BFD TAF.
VFR prevails this evening into tonight with patchy fog and low
cloud impacts possible again during the predawn and early
morning hours Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bowen
AVIATION...Steinbugl