Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 191252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
752 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

A large area of high pressure centered over the Lower
Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few
days. Temperatures will climb above normal over the upcoming
weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. A cold front will
move through the area later Monday or Monday night.


Mostly clear skies prevailing across central Pa early this
morning. Westerly breeze and weak warm advection aloft have kept
atmosphere mixed in most areas with surface temps in the upper
teens and 20s for most. However, areas like KSEG and KIPT are
stuck in the inversion and are just in the single digits above
zero at this hour.

Fair and milder conditions are expected today as upper ridge
builds into the region. The early morning chill across the
stable east will translate into a few to several degrees cooler
than the better mixed south central mountains. Highs will range
from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s in the south.


More of the same is expected tonight and Saturday with a gradual
increase in mid and high level moisture throughout the day. Mins
tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees higher than Friday morning,
while highs on Saturday range from near 40F north to the lower
50s across the south.


Some light precipitation may develop Saturday night as moisture
continues to increase. Added low chc pops for r-- with sfc
temperatures for now remaining above freezing as increasing
clouds prevent much drop off.

A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday
and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain
showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of Liq Equiv
precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low
pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which
could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums
of snow.

Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow
showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday.


Widespread VFR is the rule and will continue at least into
Friday. The strong gradient that is bringing the drier air and
fair skies will allow for a period of LLWS to the region. The
low level jet will weaken this afternoon as the winds shift.
However as the winds shift to unidirectional flow tonight the
LLJ should be upwards of 50kts.


Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR.

Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an
approaching cold front.

Tue...MVFR/IFR with snow showers west and north. VFR central
and eastern terminals.


Dry and colder weather tonight will form additional ice as
stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is
expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to
accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst
to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and
runoff. Flood watch for far southeast into Saturday, given amt
of ice in Susquehanna River.


Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ065-066.


NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin
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