Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250503 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 103 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A STRING OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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HIGHER-END LOW CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW ARE WELL-DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND RUC...AND WILL FOLLOWTHE PROGRESSION OF ADVANCE ON CUE FROM THOSE SOURCES. WHILE THEY MAY BREAK UP AS THEY DESCEND THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEY SHOULD HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAYTIME. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE HOLD A LITTLE MILD THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY NOT RISE VERY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THEM UP AND LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES /AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL PENN LOCATIONS. NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST PA FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH 05Z AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND NORTH OF KIPT. TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT

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