Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 312107 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 407 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SKY SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THE WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BEFORE 10 AM SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE OVER KPIT...AND ROLL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION ON THE WHOLE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIMPLE TEMPORARY MODEL WAGGLE BUT RATHER A SUBSTANTIAL/DECISIVE SHIFT. 8H TEMPS GO WELL ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WARM LAYER PRETTY FAR INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AS WELL. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TURN TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION IN P-TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. SLEET LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER...WITH A PRETTY GOOD WARM LAYER. IN ANY CASE...THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO WARM IT UP ON THE GROUND AND IN THE P-TYPE. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH ADVY OR PERHAPS LESS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. BUT...THE CHANCE FOR ICING IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. WILL HOLD ON WITH 6-8INCHES IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE DUE TO THE GOOD QPF IN THE PROGS DURING THE COLD TIME BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT GOOD P-GRAD WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER WET SNOW AND THE GLAZE OF ICE AFTER WILL PROBABLY CUT DOWN ON BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MAIN IMPACTS FROM WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM REGION BY MON NIGHT...BUT ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN WILL BRING A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW ZERO NORTH. THOUGH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL REMAIN TO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL...WITH NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS LIKELY NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY /-15F/ MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED THAT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMS TO THE NW HALF /BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND/...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF MORE ARCTIC AIR AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU INTO FRI - INCLUDING A RETURN OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ON SAT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST TERMINALS AS SURFACE HIGH CEDES TO AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. W/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND TURNING TO THE SW THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS SLIDE INTO THE NW MTNS BY LATE EVENING AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH. CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD IFR IN STORE FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS HEAVIER SNOW IMPACTS THE NORTH...WITH A WINTRY MIX WORKING INTO THE KMDT- KLNS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE S/SE AS LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH. OUTLOOK... SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT SE. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LLWS POSS MON AFT/NIGHT. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR IN SHSN NW...VFR SE. THU...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033>036-064>066. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...RXR

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