Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030246 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1046 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE LAST OF THE DYING SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MY FCST AREA...AND SHOULD BE GONE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH JUST A LIGHT BREEZE I DON`T EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD IN THE 60S. CLEARING SKIES...A LIGHT WIND WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SUPPLYING MSUNNY AND WARM CONDS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M70S NW MTNS TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... IT WILL CONTINUE FAIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG AS THE ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODERATE-INTENSITY SFC CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC THU THRU SAT. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEWD FRONTAL PROGRESSION. A SLOWER TREND MAY BE EMERGING IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS WITH ITS FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNING CLOSER WITH THE ECMWF/GEM BY 00Z SUN. MAX POPS SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA FROM 00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. AHEAD OF CDFRONT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH MEAN H85 TEMPS +18-20C SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS 85-90F. THE NEXT QUESTION CONCERNS HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS SRN PA ON SUNDAY WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT HANGS BACK ALONG THE APPLCHNS/MID-ATLC PIEDMONT...AS ENERGY IS SHEARED NEWD THRU THE NRN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE WESTERLY. MEAN PW FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS AND POPS TO TREND LOWER DURING THE LATER PERIODS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIN LINE OF SHRA MOVING S/SE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KMDT AND KLNS. A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING WILL DO WONDERS TO MAKE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HIGH MOISTURE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER AT LEAST BFD AND JST. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL ALSO FOG UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MANY LOCATIONS. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS WILL HAPPEN SLOWLY DURING THE MORNING - ESP WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS RESIDE. THE LESS-CLOUDY AREAS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST BREAK UP. THERE COULD BE SOME TALLER CU IN THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO ALL THE MOISTURE. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY FORM WED NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURS AFTERNOON AS HEATING POPS BIGGER CU OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN - ESP IN THE S/E. FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. COLD FROPA. SUN...AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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