Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261123 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 723 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable heat will continue until a sharp but dry cold front moves through late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Little rainfall is expected Cooler, fall-like weather will last few a few days before unusual warmth returns. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Foggy only a few locations this morning - but some sunrise specials will likely occur in just a few minutes. High clouds still the biggest thing on remote sensors - and will be the case through most of the day. No changes to previous thinking and few if any modifications have been made. Prev... High clouds swirling around the center of the upper high/ridge tonight. Temps have cooled quite a bit from the daytime heat, but there are no hints of fog just yet. Will keep mentioning fog for the valleys this morning, though. It is difficult to expect that what has been happening for many mornings will not occur again. However, the clouds may be just enough to stave off fog formation. Subsidence and lack of moisture will make it difficult for anything but flat cu to form today. But, still, the model guidance suggests that a stray shower is possible over the nrn tier this aftn. Will persist with the dry forecast due to lack of triggers and VERY warm temps aloft. Tough to believe that we could have another day of tickling the 90s in late Sept, but some valley locations could get there again today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... It should be mostly clear tonight, but clouds could form over the nrn tier as convergence increases and low level moisture will be high. The cold front nears from the NW during the morning, and could be as far as half way through the CWA by the end of the afternoon. The dewpoints will be in the m-u60s, so showers are possible. But, the upper heights/temps are so high/warm that CAPE remains extremely low. Will not tweak POPs much, and low is still the way to go. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will bring our first chance of rain in quite a while - though with the front weakening and falling apart as it moves through any scattered showers will remain light. Maria (remaining offshore of the Carolinas) will make it as far north as the NC/VA line before it takes its hard turn eastward and finally tracks away from the east coast. A bit more significant trough will approach for late week into the weekend, bringing a reinforcement of the cooler temperatures and a renewed chance for light yet scattered showers as the airmass remains quite dry. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As was the case yesterday, starting to get some dense fog in spots. Expect the fog to be gone by 14-15Z if not before this. Otherwise just some high clouds today. Expect another round of fog on Wednesday. However a little more in a way of a breeze may taper the fog, especially in the northwest. Cooler and breezy conditions by Thursday, as a strong cold front moves across the area. Not expecting a lot of showers or storms with it. Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Evening low cigs/showers possible KBFD/KJST Sat...AM low cigs possible KBFD/KJST.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record-challenging late-September heat through today. Daily high temperature records for 9/26: Bradford: 79 in 1998 *Williamsport: 92 in 1900 Harrisburg: 91 in 1970 Altoona: 88 in 1998 *Williamsport maximum temperature records are under review for Saturday and Sunday 9/23-9/24. For Monday, the following high temperatures occurred. Harrisburg - 91 degrees. Williamsport - 91 degrees - old record was 89 degrees in 1970. Altoona - 87 degrees. Bradford - 85 degrees - old record was 83 degrees in 2007. Johnstown - 85 degrees. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Martin

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