Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231244 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MESO OBS SHOW THAT TEMPS EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS UP NORTH HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1230Z...WITH THE MERCURY RISING THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS OF 1230Z. THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN EXPIRED AT 12Z. IT WILL WARM UP VERY NICELY TODAY...THANKS TO FULL LATE MAY SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW PANCAKE CU ON THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES IN THE MID 60S UP NORTH...AND AROUND 70F THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL - AND NOT MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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