Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 012001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 401 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... STRATUS HAS LIFTED BUT THE BREAKS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN DIURNAL CU AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SISOLD SHRA. THE NEAR-TERM GUID DOES POP SOME CONVECTION UNDER THE COOL UPPER LOW - ESP IN THE SC/SW MTNS AND OVER THE NE WHERE IT APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN ALREADY. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY/AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MSTR INTO THE REGION. SO...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTED IN UNDER THE INVERSION OF THE INCOMING UPPER-RIDGE WILL LIKELY UPSLOPE AND CREATE A STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG. WILL MENTION THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN THE WX GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LITTLE MIXING TO BE HAD IN THE MORNING...SO THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH DOES FORM COULD TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD INSTEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OF WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH SUNNIER...AND ALMOST NO CHC FOR A SHOWER. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... JUST A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY AT IPT AND JST/AOO AS THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD AND STABILITY COULD LOWER JUST ENOUGH. NOT ENOUGH OF A COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN MOST TAFS...AND WILL EVEN HOLD OFF MENTIONS FOR NOW AT THOSE THREE TERMINALS. THE DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE INTIAL CLEARING - BUT MDLS CONTINUE TO SLIDE MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL MTS ON LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT S/ERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL BRING ANOTHER STRATUS DECK INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL SITES. PERHAPS ONLY BFD WILL REMAIN MCLR OVERNIGHT. BUT FOG IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING. THE LIGHT E/SE WIND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING/DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND ANY MORNING STRATUS THURS AM. BUT THEN VFR SHOULD RULE. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BE A SRLY WIND WHICH COULD MAKE LLWS ON FRIDAY....BUT GUSTS WILL BE MORE-LIKELY AS MIXING BRINGS THOSE STRONG 30-35KT WINDS DOWN. THUNDER IS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER SAT AM IN THE EAST. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...GARTNER AVIATION...DANGELO

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