Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 290556
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
156 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday
and Monday. The heavy rain and deep tropical moisture from the
tropical cyclone nearing SC tonight should stay more along the
coast this weekend. However, some constant moderate rainfall is
possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Sunday Night. High
pressure will build into the region early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A warm and tranquil night is underway beneath anomalous upper lvl
ridge. Just a few -shra still showing up on radar at 0530Z, which
should die off shortly after 06z. Expect patchy fog to develop
during the pre-dawn hours where rain fell yesterday, mainly across
the Allegheny Plateau. Temps on track to bottom out in the mid to
upper 60s in most places.
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will feature increasing cirrus, as high lvl moisture is
drawn northward from ts bonnie. The increasing clouds will hold
temps down a bit, but enough heating/destabilization is expected
to lead to isolated/scattered pm convection popping off along the
spine of the Alleghenies. All 00z guidance now pointing toward a
dry day across the se counties beneath ridging and assoc lg scale
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still looks like the highest pops would be Sunday night. A plume
of tropical moisture lifting up the coast could bring a brief shot
of heavy rain to the eastern areas Sunday Night.
Models have things clearing out on Monday.
Looking warm but mainly dry for the period Tuesday into Wed...as
the cold front moves se of our area.
Chance of showers and storms increase later Thursday into
Friday...as a cold front moves se. Cooler weather to follow
For Monday into Friday...just made minor changes to the
Took the superblend and made minor adjustments to next
Saturday. Looks like a weak wave may lift ne along the cold
front. Adjusted superblend pops a little to fit in.
Pattern trying to set up for the week after next would
favor a cooler and wetter cycle again.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move north and shouldn`t
have any reducing conditions through the first half of the
overnight period. Areas that received precipitation, especially
BFD, JST and AOO could see early morning Fog/mist and possibly
some low stratocu. MVFR with brief periods of IFR are possible
between 08Z and 12Z. However an upper level trough will move
through early tomorrow morning which will bring moist
southwesterly flow. this could bring a chance for late morning,
early afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half
of the afternoon reducing conditions should be contained to the
central and western TAF sites. As the trough moves eastward Sunday
night the eastern TAF sites could see periods of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA
and will help to enhance the shower coverage. Rain with a slight
tropical connection may slide across MDT/LNS Sun night.
Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss.
Tue-Thu...No sig wx.