Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210348 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1148 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND BRING AN END TO THE STEADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE. CONVECTION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT TOPS HAVE COME DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT AND THE MAIN THREAT NOW WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. DID BUMP UP POPS INTO THE WEE HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR WHICH SHOW MORE SHOWERS GATHERING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE PA/OHIO BORDER AND WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. THE COOLER MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WRN ALLEGHENIES...WHILE MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SE. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY SEEING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA OVER THE NW INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES W/ISOLATED SHRA ALONG AND JUST TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE FAR SE ZONES. MAXES TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 50F IN THE NW AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS AS WELL. THE LOWER SUSQ WILL PROBABLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD DROP EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TO THE NW TO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF PA. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...HOWEVER SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY SPINNING OVER QUEBEC.WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH IT POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND SWINGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ASIDE FROM BRIEF IFR VIS IN +TSRA INVOF MDT/LNS THRU 06Z...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SFC WNDS FROM 250 TO 300 DEGREES WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25-30KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PREDOMINATELY SCT TO BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...PERSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE NW AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN ZNY DOMAIN. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...CERU/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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