Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011450 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BANDS OF CIRRUS OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PA AS THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FOCUSED CLOSE TO WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE. FOG IN SOME VALLEYS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE TO BREAK UP. BUT THEN AGAIN...BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOW PUSH A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO KEPT HIGHER POPS...LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. NO POPS OF NOTE IN NW TODAY AND CHANCE IN CENTRAL AREAS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTED ARE NUDGING DOWN IN CENTRAL AREAS AS THE SUN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. DESPITE THE CIRRUS...QUITE WARM ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP KEPT CHANCE IN AREAS OF HIGH POPS MAINLY AFTER 18Z. THE SREF AND NARRE APPEAR TO SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTSMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS STATE COLLEGE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA. SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST. GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN CENTRAL AREAS HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF. MOSTLY CLEAR IN WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO GET CLOUDY TODAY. SOUTHEAST HAS MAINLY VFR AS THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE HIGH AND THIN. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST AREAS. MVFR AREAS WILL EXPAND. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE EXPANSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT THE CLOUDS AND MVFR AREAS EXPAND. GOOD SET UP FOR MORE FOG AND AREAS OF IFR ISOLATED LIFR. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS. MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR

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