Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300623 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 223 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Batch of light to moderate rain lifting across eastern Pa at 06z assoc with weak shortwave. Radar trends and latest RAP suggest rain ovr our eastern counties will taper off by dawn, as shortwave slides past. Further to the west, a weak cold front is pushing into nw Pa. No precip noted with this feature at 06z, but can`t rule out an isold shower across the nw counties toward dawn. Clearing skies, light wind and wet ground from yesterday`s rainfall will yield patchy fog across the Allegheny Plateau early this morning. Vis at KFIG already down to 1/4sm at 06z. Temps on track to bottom out from the u50s across the Alleghenies, to the m60s across the eastern counties. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... After morning activity slides east of the Susq River Valley... most of Memorial Day is now appearing dry...although isold to sct coverage shra/tsra still expected during the aftn/early evening with passage of weak cold front. Guidance continues to indicate a fair amount of mid/high cloudiness streaming north from remnants of td bonnie over eastern PA...while increasing amounts of sun will be found rather over the rest of central Pa. Highs should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Looking at a nice break from the showers and storms from later Monday into Wed. Temperatures still a little above normal. Expect some showers and storms later Thursday into Friday with the next cold front. Some variation between the GFS and EC at times on the large scale flow...so by the time I got to Sunday...I adjusted the superblend pops a little...too much detail for that far out. Regardless of detail...trend is to a cooler and wetter pattern again. Other issue is hints that some remains of Bonnie stay behind under the upper level ridge until the next cold front moves in by Friday. Main change to the package was some minor adjustments. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The two biggest aviation concerns overnight is the weak precipitation moving through the southeast, which has at LNS caused IFR and lower CIGS, and the clearing over the western TAF sites that has already brought BFD and JST at times down to IFR vsbys. Expect light rain with periods of MVFR vsbys and IFR CIGS possible at MDT through 09z and LNS through 12Z. These areas will clear slowly toward morning with light precipitation overnight. For the other TAF sites another round of overnight reducing cigs/vsbys is in store. BFD, JST and AOO all received varying amounts of precipitation. Given clearing skies, light winds and overnight lows that will bring low dewpoint depressions MVFR to IFR vsbys with periods of IFR CIGS are possible especially between 09Z and 13Z. By 15Z, most reducing conditions should lift out. However tomorrow will bring another chance of showers and isolated TSRA, mainly in eastern third, followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek. OUTLOOK... Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Tue-Thu...No sig wx. Fri...Chc of showers and thunderstorms with cold front. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru

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