Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220225 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 925 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RECEDE NORTHWARD AT 02Z. JUST A COUPLE OF SPOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS ON THE FOG CHANNEL /11-3.9 MICRON/ OF THE SAT PICS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. IN TIME...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHUNT WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. THIS ACTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN - ESP IN THE CENTRAL MTNS - BY MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... 920 PM UPDATE... HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME ZR FOR THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AND UP INTO THE ALLEGHENIES...AND ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S LATE MON AFTN/EVENING. SREF PROB OF ZR ARE VERY HIGH IN THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES FOR THE EVENING AND MON NIGHT. BUT THE PRECIP IS STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH-CHC RANGE...TAPERING OFF RATHER QUICKLY W OF RTE 219. THEREFORE...STILL NO ADVY TO BE POSTED THIS EARLY/AT THIS TIME HORIZON DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF OCCURRANCE OF PRECIP LET ALONE ZR ACCRETIONS. PREV.. INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SPITTY/SPOTTY NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON. NAM12 REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AFTER 12Z...AN OUTLIER...WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES GIVEN RESIDUAL MARGINAL COLD AIR MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT MODEL AND SOLUTION...AND FAVOR A CONSENSUS LATER ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH WOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MIXED PRECIP AT THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW ON THIS FOR ANY ADVISORY CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME/RANGE. DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF ARRIVAL...AREAS WHICH MAY BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF -FZRA MON AFTERNOON WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STILL MONITORING THIS LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME...AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES IN GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR MONDAY NIGHT...DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. NAM MODEL LOOKS A LITTLE WET...SO DID NOT UP POPS A LOT. WENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...PCPN AMTS NOT MUCH MORE THAN .O1. MORE LIKE A DRIZZLE. STILL THIRD PERIOD...TOO EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY. THE MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ASSOC OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF SHALLOW MOISTURE LYR WILL LINGER INTO TUE MORNING...BUT SHOULD EDGE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AFTER HAVING LOWS IN THE 31-32 DEGREE RANGE...TEMPS SHOULD EDGE UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON TUE. DID NOT CHANGE A LOT FOR TUE...SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT NOT ALL THE TIME. LOW RATHER FAR TO THE WEST FOR STRONG FLOW TO MOVE COLDER AIR OUT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW TO OUR WEST 24-25 DECEMBER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AS MANY LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE FIELDS RISE WELL ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL VALUES. THIS IMPLIES WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR SCOURS OUT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NEW MODELS SLOW FRONT SOME...THUS DID UP POPS WED NIGHT AND GO ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR WORKS IN FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND NOT REAL COLD. MILDER AIR WORKS IN FOR FRIDAY ON SW FLOW. COLDER AIR AGAIN FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PATTERN CONTINUES AS STRATOCU IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION CENTRAL AND NORTH...WHILE AN AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING EXTENDS FROM SC MTNS TO LOWER SUSQ PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT CENTRAL AND NORTH...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING FLIRTS WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER. COMBINATION OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK LOW LIFTING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A GRADUALLY INCREASING MOIST SERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT WE/LL SEE REDEVELOPMENT/REINFORCEMENT OF THE STRATOCU DECK OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS /FROM KJST-KBFD/ OVERNIGHT...POSS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL MTNS...WITH MOST POINTS EAST REMAINING VFR. THE INCREASING MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT THE OHIO VALLEY...COULD SPREAD A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN PA MONDAY PM. OUTLOOK... MON...CIG REDUCTIONS WEST. RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING EAST. LIGHT RAIN POSS SOUTH...FZRA POSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. BECOMING BREEZY. TUE...LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY. WED...PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. WINDY WITH LLWS. THU...WINDY AND COLDER WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN. LLWS. FRI...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU

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