Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 061753 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE FULL SUNSHINE IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LACK OF MIXING IS KEEPING US UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL REMAIN FAIR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS DROPPING BACK TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WEAK LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TOWARD NY BY SAT EVENING. THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...MAYBE A COATING TO AN INCH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NY BORDER. SATURDAY WILL START A TEMPERATURE MODERATING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND REACH THE 30S VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRADFORD WHERE AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...

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