Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191648 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1148 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold and windy conditions are expected through tonight with lake effect snow accumulation over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Thanksgiving week looks mainly dry with temperatures trending milder to above average into Tuesday before cooling off to near seasonal levels for the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Pretty classic post-frontal early cold season pattern with gusty northwest flow, lake effect/orographic rain-snow showers and lots of stratocu. The highest ridges in the Laurel Highlands picked up a coating-1" of snow early this morning with no snow reported over the NW Alleghenies. Temperatures ~ 32-34F will limit accumulation this afternoon but temperatures falling below freezing this evening and into the 20s overnight should easily allow snow to stick. No changes to the winter wx advisory. Will let the wind advisory expire at 12pm. Frequent wind gusts ~ 25-35 mph will continue into tonight but remain below 40KT criteria. Minimum wind chills will drop into the teens and 20s into Monday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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Monday looks like the thermal trough lifts away and the lake effect and clouds lift/end.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended part of the forecast will see the season`s first real lake effect snow event winding down early in the period, followed by several days of cool but tranquil weather. Model soundings show the inversion heights falling quickly Sunday evening through Monday morning, which will begin the process of shutting off the lake effect machine. Look for accumulating snow to continue overnight over the normal snowbelt areas of the NW and even down into the Laurels-with lesser amounts. The snows will continue shrinking back closer to the immediate vicinity of the lakes by Monday morning and by Monday afternoon there should be little more than a few leftover flurries as the high builds off to our south and we see the thermal advection switch from cold to warm. High pressure will keep conditions dry into Tuesday before a weakening front sliding by to our north brings the small chance of a snow shower to northern areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at the area. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect gusty northwest winds today in the wake of overnight cold front passage. Lake effect snow showers will affect KBFD with MVFR to IFR conditions through much of the day. Cigs will drop into MVFR range from scattered snow/rain showers at KJST, KAOO, and KUNV into this afternoon. Outlook... Mon...AM shsn/reduced vsbys possible NW mountains. Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ006-010>012-017>019- 024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ004-005. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Steinbugl

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