Issued by NWS State College, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCTP 230003 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 703 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY...IT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT...AND TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS. WITH NO WIND TO SPEAK OF...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND COULD PUSH THE DEWPOINTS DOWN LOWER THAN WHERE THEY ARE ATTM. AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR IS SEEN IN THE POST- MIDNIGHT HOURS AS AN ERLY FLOW DEVELOPS JUST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LEVEL TEMPS OFF. MINS SHOULD DIP INTO THE U20S IN THE NRN VALLEYS AND 30S ELSEWHERE...BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS 1034+ MB SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENG COAST...DEVELOPING MOIST...EASTERLY FLOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. STRATOCU WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...BY LATE MONDAY A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE BUT STILL OVERALL LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE AS EASTERLY WIND AND PWAT ANOMALIES SHIFT NORTH INTO PA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S TOMORROW WITH FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS PERHAPS REACHING THE LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE MOISTURE MOVING IN FASTER ON MONDAY THAN WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE DATA ETC. SEE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...TUESDAY LOOKS LESS OF A CHC OF RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...STILL A LOT OF VARIATION ON TIMING OF FROPA ON WED AND THU. IT LOOKS LIKE FRONT MAY MOVE RATHER FAST ON WED. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS NOW LIKELY TO FORM AND DEVELOP THU NIGHT. AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE TOO FAR WEST AND SOUTH TO GET MUCH...BUT DID UP POPS SOME FOR THU INTO FRIDAY. SOME MINOR AMTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL PA. I DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME FROM THU INTO SAT...MAINLY MAX TEMPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WOULD BACK MORE TO THE WEST NEXT SUNDAY...BRINGING A MODERATING TREND TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN THE MINOR CHANGES NOTED ABOVE...LEFT PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD. WITH THE TENDENCY FOR A WESTERN RIDGE AND A WEAK NEGATIVE NAO... A TREND TO COOLER CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERALL. NOT SO CLEAR CUT ON STORM POTENTIAL ETC. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --IR IMAGERY INDICATES VFR CONDS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER ARND 09Z MID- LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES JST/AOO FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP...WITH A TEMPO IFR CONDS BTWN 10-13Z FOR JST/AOO/UNV. BFD SHUD REMAIN VFR POSSIBLY THRU 00Z TUE WITH CIGS ARND 4KFT AGL. SUSQ-VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL SEE PATCHY MVFR BY 12Z THEN TREND TOWARDS SOLID MVFR LCL IFR CONDS ARND 18Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA AIRFIELDS UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z TUE. JST/AOO/UNV COULD SEE ISO SHRA BTWN 18-21Z...HOWEVER OVERALL HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VCSH FOR MOST SITES. OUTLOOK... TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM. WED...MVFR TO VFR. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -SHRASN.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...BEACHLER
