Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301021 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 621 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT. I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES. THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES. WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS COOL SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS. A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOWER CLDS NOW JUST SE AND EAST OF THE OFFICE. ANYWAY...SOME SPOTS ARE MVFR. THUS WILL BE UPDATING THE 12Z PACKAGE FOR THIS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM BY THIS EVENING...NO EXPECTING REAL LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR. WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN

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