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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 111734
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A VIGOROUSLY DEEPENING LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BUMPED HIGHS UP A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH 60F OR HIGHER READINGS
TO BECOME COMMON SOUTH OF A KAOO-KUNV-KSEG-KRDG LINE FOR A TIME
THIS AFTENOON. THOUGH TEMP ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL ACROSS THE
NORTH...SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN THERE TOO AS MIXING HAS
LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
THERE TO RISE A BIT HIGHER. SO UPPED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.

SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY TURN FROM THE WEST TO SW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO THICKEN UP TONIGHT. SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPLY THE GOOD SRLY FLOW AND
REAL GOMEX MOISTURE TO A STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO MO LATER TODAY. THE SUB-1000MB LOW WILL DEEPEN EVEN
FURTHER AS IT ROLLS EASTWARD ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW IS PROGGED BY ALL MDLS
TO CROSS THE SRN TIER OF PA WED - AT 12Z IT SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR
SWRN PA...AND WILL DEEPEN TO A 980MB LOW BY THE TIME IT SCOOTS
EAST OF KABE WED EVENING. VERY STRONG AND NEAR-TEXTBOOK KISSING JET
COUPLET WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. THE WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND THE ALREADY-
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP RAIN OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR NRN TIER BEFORE LATE WED. EVEN THE FAR NRN TIER WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING WHAT DOES FALL AS SNOW...DUE TO THE MID-
MARCH SUN AND MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE. LIGHT EAST WIND COULD KEEP
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE NRN MTS WED MORNING. SOME POCKETS OF
FZG RAIN MAY THEREFORE EXIST IN THE NRN TIER WED. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE EAST...THE WINDS WILL GO NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20S AND GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG CAA DROPS TEMPS INTO THE 20S IN THE
N WED AFTN.

QPF IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH IS MOST LIKELY GOING
TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND COUPLED JET
LATER IN THE DAY WILL MAKE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND/S AND TEMPS WILL
THEN BE CONDUCIVE TO ALLOW ACCUMULATION. THUS...THE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR MORE ALONG THE NRN TIER BY LATE WED NIGHT.
THE COLD WINDS WILL HELP MINS INTO THE LOWEST SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
N. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS. HAVE THUSLY ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE 4 NRN TIER COS ALONG THE NY BORDER.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY SLUSH - AND AT MOST AN INCH OR TWO
ANYWHERE SOUTH/EAST OF ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE/WILLIAMSPORT.
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH/EAST WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE STORM...QUITE COLD AIR...AROUND -20C AT 850MB...GETS
DRIVEN INTO THE REGION ON A STRONG GUSTY NW WIND LATER WED NIGHT
INTO THU...WITH BY FAR THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN STORE
THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS SHOULD REACH NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F OVER THE
CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION AND DIP TO AROUND ZERO IN THE LWR
SUSQ. VLY.

THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS TEMPS
REBOUND DECENTLY FRI INTO SAT...BOUNCING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER THIS WINTER`S DEFINING FEATURE...THE PERSISTENT
WEST COAST RIDGE...IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER PA...KEEPING TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND PREVENTING ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY WITH LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM.

RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN /AND POSS SNOW NORTH/
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 06Z IN THE NW...AND HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP
ARRIVES STARTING AROUND 12Z WED. BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE BETWEEN WED MORNING AND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD ADVERSE CONDITIONS ON WED...WITH RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND SOME RISK OF STRONG
TSTMS NEAR THE MD BORDER. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...LLWS...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH. THESE CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THU AS VERY COLD AIR
STAMPEDES INTO PA. WITH STRONG STORM DYNAMICS...CONCERN EXISTS FOR
A BURST OF HEAVY WET CONVECTIVE SNOW /AND POSS THUNDER/ NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WED/WED NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW. STRONG
N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING. LLWS.
THU...STRONG/GUSTY N/NW WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK RAINFALL...EXPECT MODERATE
RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. STILL ENOUGH ICE IN SPOTS TO BRING ICE JAMS...THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT DECAY HAS OCCURRED AT MANY LOCATIONS. ANY ICE JAMS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALL PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR WATER
LEVELS CLOSELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
HYDROLOGY...