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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU