Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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062 FXUS61 KCTP 160410 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1110 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight. A frontal system will approach Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will return to close out the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Surface high over Pa will provide the region with fair weather overnight. Cirrus streaming across southern Pa will hold temps up a bit down there, while a clear sky and light wind allow temps to fall through the teens across the northern Mtns. All model data indicating weak shortwave and associated batch of rain over the Ohio Valley will pass south of Pa overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A warm front will be advancing northward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, spreading increasing clouds across central Pa. Strongest WAA indicated across NW Pa toward the end of the day, where a few showers are possible. Further south, an increasingly moist southeast flow at low levels, will likely create some drizzle over the higher terrain of Somerset/Bedford counties by late in the day. Model soundings showing a nearly saturated 0-1km layer in this region by 21Z. Highs Monday expected range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the Great Lakes region as a pattern change begins. An upper ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary could be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the early to mid morning hours Tuesday. A good portion of the upcoming week is shaping up to be mild and showery (especially Tuesday) as the bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA during the midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (periods of steady rain on Tuesday) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Followed close to the Nat`l Blend of models vary high, 90-100 pops for Tuesday surround on either side by mainly likely pops. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecast in good shape. No changes made to the 03Z TAFS. Looking at mainly mid and high clds prior to 00Z Tue. Perhaps some lower clouds (BKN035 OVC070) at JST and AOO late. Went with VFR conditions prior to 00Z Tue. As of 5 PM, a look outside the office showed mid clouds just south of the office. Radar and models show this system pulling away from the area. Next system for late Monday. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible west with rain showers. VFR elsewhere. Thu-Fri...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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