Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCTP 301126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
726 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
An upper level trough will influence the region through early
next week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one location
however. high pressure will build over the northeastern united
states by mid to late next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Small areas of showers continues in parts of Dauphin and Lebanon
Counties early this morning...otherwise most of the CWA is seeing
a quiet but very warm night. KMDT still 75 degrees at 3am. For
today...looking at a very unstable and moist atmosphere with
widespread showers and possible thunderstorms possible across the
entire CWA. Latest HRRR runs bring these showers into CWA near day
break and increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon
hours. Right now it looks like heaviest showers could fall across
western and central portions of CWA...areas that really need a
good soaking rain. At this time believe that rainfall totals will
be more beneficial in nature...but some locally heavy downpours
are possible and will have to monitor closely to see if rainfall
is heavy enough for flash flooding. FFG is quite high over most of
the area and right now will hold off and any FFA product. With
thick clouds and periods of showers...temperatures will not rise
very much today.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Still looking at widespread showers this evening before decreasing
and coverage and intensity overnight. Sunday will start off quiet
but will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in
the afternoon, but less widespread than today.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Diminishing POPs into Monday as the upper level trough and
cyclonic flow slowly exits off the coast. Big ridge builds over
the central US and moves east to Ohio by Friday. This puts us into
a drier pattern with NW flow. May see something move over the
ridge but then drop to the west and south of PA. Can`t rule out
some afternoon clouds popping and maybe an isolated convective
cell over the higher terrain but that should be it. Temperatures
will start out in the normal range and warm to above normal toward
the end of the week.
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Some adjustments for the 12Z TAF package, given activity
on the radar. Several areas of heavier showers and storms
at 7 AM.
Complex low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep showers
and thunderstorms over the area today into at least Sunday
if not Monday. A wide rang of conditions will prevail the
next few days.
SUN- MON...Morning fog restrictions, then scattered showers and
TUE- WED...Mainly VFR, but with morning fog restrictions.
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