Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310605 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with a few isolated showers. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow north into Pennsylvania for Thursday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Aside from the tail end of a stripe of cirrus across our far sern zones...skies will be generally clear through the mid morning hours. Sfc dewpoints will be holding in the low-mid 60s for a few more hours to the SE of Interstate 81...while drier/cooler air with dewpoints in the 50s will be found across central and nw penn. Light wind and areas of wet ground will lead to some patchy fog early today. Lows will range from the upper 40s to around 50F across northwestern penn... to the lower 60s in the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day for residents of central PA on Tuesday. Superblend used for temps with highs ranging from the u70s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley...although a few spots could crack 87F far southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from the last 2 days. Made minor adjustments to the fcst package. Still looks dry and warm for Wed. Models show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will build in overnight and will continue into midweek. The forecast question overnight will be the development of fog/mist due to the calming winds and clearing skies. Given the pattern and the last few nights, BFD, AOO, MDT and LNS could see MVFR to IFR vsbys until around 13Z. More settled weather building into the region through midweek should stifle convection over the next few days with only early morning patchy fog. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru

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