Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270938 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 538 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over Pennsylvania through the weekend...accompanied by very warm and mainly dry weather. A weak cold front will push southeast across the state Sunday night into Monday morning. Another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry days will follow for Monday...Tuesday...and the first part of Wednesday. A stronger cold front will move southeast through the state Wednesday afternoon and evening...followed by dry and cooler than normal temperatures late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clear skies, light wind and moderate dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s will lead to a much more comfortable early morning. Temps could settle to the lower 50s for a min in the perennial cold spots near and to the east of KBFD, while early morning lows elsewhere will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. some of the larger metro areas in the SE will only dip to the upper 60s. Abundant sunshine and temps climbing to well above normal are expected for today, as an anomalously strong upper level ridge builds northeast across the Mid Atlantic region. Expect just a speckling of flat cu to form across the Alleghenies of northern and western PA this afternoon. The warm temps aloft will suppress practically any chance of convection, so have maintained POPs near zero. Latest ensemble 850/925mb temps continues to support max temps similar to those on friday across southeast Pa and several degrees warmer than the prior 24 hours across the western half of the state. High temps will vary from the mid 80s across the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 90s across the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Another quiet night is in store for tonight with some mid/high clouds beginning to stream in from the west. A weak cold front will bring the chance for showers or thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon/evening - mainly over northern and western sections of the state. Weighted our previous fcst POPs to the latest run of the Superblend and Nat`l Blend across...which yields likely pops for shra/sct tsra across the NW mtns...and isolated to scattered shra/tsra near the Allegheny Front. Little or no chc for precip across the far SE zones late Sunday through 12z Monday. SPC has placed the NW third of our CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe Sunday afternoon and evening...which looks pretty good based on moderate, westerly deep-layer shear and a SW-NE ribbon of rather impressive MU cape of 2500-3500 j/kg extending from near KELZ and KBFD...to KBTP. Gusty (and highly localized damaging) westerly winds will accompany the storms in the 18Z Sunday - 01Z Monday period in the MRGL Risk area. Above normal temps will continue on Sunday with similar maxs (or perhaps just a few deg f lower than Sat`s across the Susq Valley). Highs expected to range from the mid 80s (mtns) to near 90F in the Lower Susq Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to an upper-level trough over the northeast by next Thursday and Friday. As a result, above-normal temperatures early in the week will transition to near...then likely a few to several deg below normal by late next week. The weakening cold front (noted in the Short Term period above) will push slowly SE through the Commonwealth Sunday night into Monday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers. The frontal boundary is expected to wash out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day Monday. Abundant low-level moisture...mesoscale convergence and some orographic lift/heating via the East to NE llvl flow regime across the mtns of SW PA will focus the best chc for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon. Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry...with generally light wind and just some patchy early morning fog throughout the valleys of central and northern PA. A second...and likely stronger cold front should push SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday through Saturday (over central and SE PA)...but may hold in the mid to upper 60s acrs the NW mtns Thursday and Friday...as a deep upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Local restrictions to visibility in patchy fog remain possible through daybreak. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail through tonight. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the northwest 1/2 airspace Sunday afternoon along/ahead of a cold front advancing eastward across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley. A few storms may produce strong to marginally severe sfc wind gusts. Outlook... Mon-Tue...Predominately VFR with isolated P.M. TS possible. Wed...Scattered TS possible with cold fropa. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Steinbugl

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