Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250354 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1154 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Front passing with much drier (finally) air behind it. Last vestiges of storms leaving the SE counties now and all should be rather quiet as the front passes the very wet locations in the Mid and Lower Susq. There could be an isolated shower or two but large scale subsidence and drying will keep it mainly fair through the rest of the evening. There are some low clouds under the trough over the NW now, but any associated showers are expected to be light and also stay mainly to the north of the NY border. Fog may develop through the night - especially in the east where the ground is very moist - but that drier air could make it difficult to get back down to the dewpoint tonight. Of course the temps in the NW/Wrn valleys could make river valley fog with small/nil Tw:Ta differences. Will hold on that thought for the moment, as the air is pretty dry and the clouds moving in should keep it from radiating to really cold temps there. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A much more pleasant air mass will be over the region on Tuesday bringing a more comfortable day with little to no chance of rain for a change. Clouds may linger for a time over the Alleghenies and keep temps a bit lower than guidance. Highs will only reach the upper 60s north...and range through the 70s to the lower 80s elsewhere. A nice change with dewpoints in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High centered over central PA Tuesday night. Marine layer in easterly flow may bring some clouds and a slight chance of a shower into the eastern zones Wednesday. Next weather system moves in Thursday with increasing chances of storms into the night. Cold front moves southeast of PA Friday morning with a lingering chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day as a short-wave drops over the ridge to the west and into the trough on the east coast. Conditions dry out for Saturday as high pressure builds in. A wave on the front that moved south of PA may bring showers up around the Mason-Dixon line Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers done for the evening, satellite shows mid level clouds entrenched across Pennsylvania. With no major forcing expect these clouds to persist overnight. This and the west to northwesterly flow which will be gusty at times. These low to mid clouds and winds will keep any fog formation to a minimum. The best restrictions will be along the central and northwest mountains in MVFR to periods of IFR in low stratocu at JST. As the winds shift to the northwest the flow should allow for the pooling moisture which should allow for the low cigs to for at JST between 08Z to 12Z. Restrictions would lift at JST by 15Z. Tuesday should be mainly dry with VFR dominating. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR. Sat...VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Ceru/RXR

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