Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250951 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 551 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonable late-September heat will continue in central PA through mid week. Mostly dry weather will also prevail with just an isolated shower possible in spots on Wednesday. A pattern change will bring cooler, fall-like weather back to the area for end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As with so many previous nights, valley fog is expanding over central and northern areas. Areas of fog will give way to another very warm and muggy afternoon by late-September standards with max temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F (15-20 degrees above normal). It will feel even warmer with max HX values between 90 and 95 degrees. Tonight will be another repeat of the last several, mild with mainly clear skies and valley fog after midnight. YAWN!
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... High heights and anomalous warmth, where have we heard that before? Some of the deterministic models want to fire a shower or two off over NW PA near the lake breeze, but we are dry and stable and warm aloft so I stayed with the dry forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The blocking high that has been responsible for the recent extended spell of dry and anomalously warm conditions is forecast to start breaking down by mid week, with shortwave energy sliding along the US-Canadian border finally chewing away at the high heights and bringing some cooler air eastward. In the meantime Maria is still forecast to drift northward into the offshore waters off of Cape Hatteras on Wednesday. But the aforementioned northern stream shortwave finally gives it the incentive to take a hard turn east as the storm passes 35 deg north. For our area, it looks like the first chance we will have to see any rain might be later Wednesday with a weakening cold front that is destined to fall apart in the unfavorable shear on the northwest side of the sprawling hurricane. Any rainfall looks to be scattered and light, bringing little change to the dry conditions we`ve had around here for much of September. A bit more significant trough will approach for the end of the week into the weekend. The ECMWF has backed off and now looks much like the GFS with a flatter faster wave, and a return to ridging by Sunday. The atmosphere will be dry so there doesn`t seem to be much of a chance for significant rain, just scattered light showers. We will likely go on into at least 3 weeks without any widespread beneficial rain. The biggest change will be that temps will drop off from our streak of well above-normal levels back toward seasonal normals by Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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09Z TAFS sent. Sunday was a dry and warm early fall day. The main feature that was interesting was it was breezy. VAD winds around 500 MB when I left yesterday morning were around 50 knots. Tue-Wed...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Thu...Mainly VFR conditions. Perhaps a few showers. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record-challenging late-September heat through early week. Daily high temperature records from 9/24 through 9/26: Bradford: 82 in 1961, 83 in 2007, 79 in 1998 Williamsport: 90 in 1961, 89 in 1970, 92 in 1900 Harrisburg: 97 in 1970, 93 in 1970, 91 in 1970 Altoona: 91 in 1970, 90 in 1970, 88 in 1998 The high of 86 in Bradford on Sunday was a new record high temperature. The high of 92 in Williamsport on Sunday was a new record high temperature. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Martin

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