Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011207 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 807 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 8 AM... A FEW BREAKS IN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SW AND FAR SE BUT STILL DENSE FOG IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS. FOG ADVY WILL CONTINUE AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT PROBABLY NOT. PREV... AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS... AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z. SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES. MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY... AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z WED-12Z THU...WDSPRD IFR WILL DECREASE IN CVRG AND IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THRU 14-16Z. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AGAIN FOR IFR REDUCTIONS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WHICH IS NOW REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR RESTRICTIONS BCMG MVFR/VFR BY THE AFTN. FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005- 010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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