Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290854 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will influence the region through early next week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one location however. high pressure will build over the northeastern united states by mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Regional radar at 0845z shows light to moderate rain pulling out of the Lower Susquehanna River Valley. At present rate of moment, steady showers will exit Lancaster county by 6:00 AM or shortly thereafter. Behind this feature, a lull will be seen through late morning...after which diurnal heating should support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through late afternoon and early evening, as per CAMs and SSEO/GEFS. GEFS mean 850mb temps of arnd 16C should translate to max temps ranging through the 80s...near to slightly above normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Evening diurnally driven shower activity will dissipate by midnight...but approaching slow moving upper trof from the Ohio Valley may support some overnight shower activity reaching into the Alleghenies and into the central and south central mountains by 12z Sat. This upper trof will slowly work across PA on Saturday bringing scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to especially central and southern areas. Cheseapeake deep layer moisture plume sneaks into my southeast counties in the afternoon and could support locally heavy downpours as the mean trof remains over the Ohio Valley but individual disturbances lift newd over PA. With plenty of clouds and scattered showers on Saturday...highs will range from the mid 70s north to the lower to mid 80s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Saturday night and Sunday keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the 80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z TAFS sent. Band of light to moderate showers to the east of the higher terrain will keep a wide range of conditions across the area this morning. As the system edges further east, VFR conditions should prevail later today. Earlier discussion below. Widespread rain and showers over much of the southern two thirds of central Pennsylvania this evening, with a few more isolated convective cells across the northern tier counties. Tough forecast for aviation this evening, as conditions will likely be highly variable through the evening and into the overnight. Latest HRRR continuing the trend of keeping a decent amount of widespread, mainly light, precipitation across the region. For TAFs, have generally followed the guidance of a more steady rain in the south, with showers and rain across central and northern sections. Expect most TAFs to be varying from VFR to IFR during the evening into the overnight. More widespread restrictions overnight, even if just due to fog rather than rain. As the system moves out tomorrow morning conditions should rapidly improve from west to east. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...Additional showers and thunderstorms. TUE...Improving conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Grumm/Jung/Martin

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