Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291857 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W. SUN...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...ROSS

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