Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281147 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 647 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA. BANDS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THESE SHOWERS. COLDER AIR ALSO ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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FRONTAL BAND SLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED SHOWERS WANING. SHOWERS ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN WET SNOW BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DEC.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF 2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SFC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS LIGHT PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BROUGHT A LOWERING OF VISBYS AND CIGS TO BFD CURRENTLY...AND IFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS AOO/UNV/IPT AND JST. BFD WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW MIX IN OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND THEREFORE THE ATTENDANT LOWER VISBYS AROUND SUNRISE/12Z. JST MAY LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE...BUT ALSO IF THE PRECIP TURNS TO SNOW THERE IN THE MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THRU HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL TAKE THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT FOR IT TO CLEAR THE SE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT VFR MAY RETURN BY 00Z/29TH - IN THE NORTH FIRST THEN CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT THERE. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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