Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260339 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1139 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO TAKE OVER AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH OHIO MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO WILL SPREAD AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PA...AS PW IN RETURN FLOW SURGES ABOVE 1.0" AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND 5H SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY DRY AMBIENT LOW LEVELS TO BEGIN. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS WOULD ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AT MOST IT APPEARS...BUT UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS IN CONCERT WITH HIGH RES LCL MDL GUIDANCE NECESSITATE THIS UPDATE. BUMPED UP MINS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES...WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING TEMPER INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LLJ BRINGING HIGHER POPS AS DAY GIVES WAY TO EVE. SCT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE W AND N LATE AFT INTO SAT NIGHT AS POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPS /WITH ISO STRONGER STORMS POSS APPROACHING WESTERN BORDER OF CWA IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT./ SPC BRINGS SLIGHT RISK AREA TO NEAR W BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING BACK UP AND BECOMING NOTICABLE LATER IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE FOR SAT NIGHT...AFTER LATE DAY CONVECTION DIES OFF. MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST SHAPING UP TO BE SUNDAY. SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH FOCUS ON A POTENT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND CROSSING PA SUN NIGHT. EFFECTS OF MCS MAY IMPACT HOW EVENT PLAYS OUT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR PEAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS/EVOLUTION...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS POTENT ENOUGH FOR POSS OF SCT SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHEAST EARLY WEEK AS RIDGE ESTABLISHS ITSELF AGAIN OVER WESTERN U.S. AND NEAR BERMUDA. SO CONTINUED MENTION OF SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TROUGH SLOWLY FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A COUPLE NOTICABLY COOL MORNINGS AND BELOW NORMAL MAXES BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY GRADUALLY REBOUND LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS THIS EVENING. EARLIER CONCERN ABOUT LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG HAS DIMINISHED...AS PLENTY OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS IS NOW EXPECTED TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THREAT OF FOG. A FEW -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH OF VFR CONDS EVERYWHERE THRU DAWN. WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST MAINTAINS AN INFLUENCE ACROSS PA. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS SWRLY FLOW DRAWS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ODDS VERY SMALL OF ANY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC OF ANY IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF BRIEF WGUSTS OR VIS REDUCTIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD. OUTLOOK... SUN...SCT TSRA IMPACTS EXPECTED. MON...AM LOW CIG POSS W MTNS. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...

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