Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060949 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 449 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS...ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A NICE RESPITE FROM RECENT STORMMINESS...DESPITE THE COLD. ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTWHEST PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RADIATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST...AND UPDATED FOR SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO READINGS THERE BEFORE DAWN. NO WIND...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND CHILL CONCERNS EARLY TODAY...JUST A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY. NEARLY FULL SUN IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME STRATOCU LINGERING IN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR THE ALLEGENY CREST. LACK OF MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A WARM UP...WITH HIGHS STILL MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ACTUAL READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S LOWER SUSQ. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SFC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE NORTHERN GLAKS BY 12Z SAT. THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GLAKS THIS EVENING...SPREADING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...BUT WAA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS MAY BRING A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT...AND EXPECT COLDEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO 10 TO 15F NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/RXR CLIMATE...

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