Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280206 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1006 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER TROUGH DELIVERING DEEPENING COLD AIR THIS EVENING OVER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED- NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR TWO SO FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF WARREN COUNTY...AND A COATING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL SE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL BRING AN AREA OF STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS /EVEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY/ HEADING THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT AND HOUR AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING /EVEN TO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION/. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WE/LL SEE UNTIL LATER THIS COMING FALL...WITH HIGHS FROM ONLY AROUND 20F IN THE KBFD AREA...TO BETWEEN 35-40F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY NW WIND IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING WITH WIND CHILLS ONLY AROUND 10F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND 20S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE RETURN OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUNCTUATE THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF MARCH...GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT THE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELAXATION OF THE LOW HEIGHTS FOR A TIME. ALTHOUGH...ONLY ENOUGH TO BRING US BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. BUT THIS WILL FEEL RELATIVELY MILD. BECAUSE WE ARE STILL IN THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SCATTERED BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA EACH NIGHT...A DIURNAL FLUCUATION BETWEEN DAYTIME RAIN TO NIGHT TIME RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP STRATO CU WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWSHOWERS AT BFD AND JST OVERNIGHT. BFD...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW COULD SEE LIFR AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CONTINUING THROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. JST WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...BUT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THE FLOW WILL BE LESS UPSLOPE...SO LESS OF A PROBABILITY FOR LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. SO WHILE IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AT JST...MAINLY BETWEEN 09 TO 13Z OVERNIGHT...IT IS LESS LIKELY. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...AND SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. EXPECT BFD TO HANG AROUND THE LONGEST DUE TO FLOW AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS SATURDAY AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...HELPING TO CREATE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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