Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280351 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT BEST. 03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN. OUTLOOK... THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. SAT...VFR. SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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