Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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304 FXUS61 KCTP 101636 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1136 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW POWDERY SNOW BY DUSK THANK TO A WELL ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES /THAT WILL VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA/. THIS SFC FEATURE...AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER VORTLOBE SHOULD SUPPORT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT/QUASI NE/SW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS BRIEF SQUALLS CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290 DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER EXTENDING THE CURRENT WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME BY UP TO 12 HOURS...AND EXPAND THEM TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES - WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MID AFTERNOON FORECAST/GRIDDED DATA UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS A BIT TWD THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTED IN JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO FCST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE AROUND 20F ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MINOR UPDATES TO 15Z TAF PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO. THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOWS. FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS A SECONDAY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20 KT RANGE. OUTLOOK... THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE. FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT. SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY. SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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