Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281331 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 831 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AND BE OUT OF CENTRAL PA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT NOW HALF WAY THRU CWA AND PUSHING SE STEADILY. BY 16Z IT SHOULD BE THRU MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS DROP 4-6F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS VEER 60-90 DEGS. TEMP ALMOST FZG AT BFD. THE SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DRYING THINGS AND ALMOST NO RAIN HAS FALLEN BETWEEN UNV AND HGR. A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT GOES THRU MOST PLACES...BUT POPS OF HIGH MAGNITUDE NOT NECESSARY. WILL LINGER CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN BORDER UNTIL LATE AFTN AS A SLIGHT LITTLE WAVE/BUMP ROLLS ALONG JUST TO THE S OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW IS GOING TO BE NEGLIGABLE...BUT STILL COULD MAKE A THIN COATING IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS IN THE NRN MTS AND THRU THE DAY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT GUSTY/STRONG AND WHILE IT WILL FEEL COLDER - IT WILL STILL BE RATHER TAME FOR LATE DEC. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FRONTAL BAND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER. A COUPLE OF SHSN COULD MOVE INTO THE NRN MTS BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCT AND NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DEC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF 2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONG BAND THAT WAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD. REDUCING CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOWERS FROM THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER AT BFD AND JST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS PRECIP FADES CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE...THOUGH REDUCINGCIGS OF MVFR AND LOWER SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ TAF SITES...THOUGH MVFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN LATE TODAY AS CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID- ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT THERE. MVFR COULD RETURN TO JST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DANGELO NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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