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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 082228
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
H5 TROUGH MOVG ESEWD FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS A
COLD FRONTAL BAND/LLVL THERMAL RIBBON SEWD ACRS THE AREA TGNT.
LGT SNOW HAS REMAIN CONFINED OVER THE NW MTNS/N OF I-80. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE ACRS WRN PA INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THE LATEST 12Z
HIRES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA. DOWNSLOPE E OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PCPN FROM THE CNTRL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION INTO THE
MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY. SOME MINOR ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN MARGINAL ESPECIALLY AFTER A VERY MILD
AFTN IN MOST AREAS /OUTSIDE OF THE NW MTNS./ SPEAKING OF
MILD...MID AFTN TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACRS THE S-CNTRL MTNS INTO THE MID- SUSQ VLY. EXPECT THE LGT PCPN
TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER OR DISSIPATE INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. INCR MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGS OVER CNTRL AND SRN AREAS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
5-10KT WNW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE LAURELS IN THE
MORNING..AS MSTR ASCENDING THE HIER ELEVATIONS VIA WK UPSLOPE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER EXPECT A DRY BUT
COLDER DAY OVERALL WITH INC MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER SUN INTO SUN
NGT DUE TO LOW-MID LVL WARM AIR/THETAE ADV CROSSING THE GRT LKS IN
ADVANCE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE UPPER GRT LKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD MON INTO TUE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IN NORTHERN STREAM SLIDES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO
ADD LOW POPS TO MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR EARLY WEEK. TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES BY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM THE MIDWEST.

MIDWEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS ON
MONDAY GETS ABSORBED INTO SHARPENING TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. ECMWF AND GFS SUITES STILL INDICATE A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION
/BEFORE MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST
COAST/. EC STILL DEVELOPING A DEEPER TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN A
MORE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS IS WEAKER...FLATTER AND A
BIT FASTER.

IF THE ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTIONS END UP VERIFYING...HEAVIEST PRECIP
OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON WED...WITH WARMEST 850MB TEMPS...
SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WITH A WINTRY MIX FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENT WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAGGED
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT PRECIP RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY BY
THEN.

NORTHERN STREAM DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO PA ON THU...BRINGING THE
CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW -15C WITH A
NOTICABLE BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15F BELOW NORMAL...AND LIKELY
FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.

COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN
COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IF PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY FLATTENS A BIT AS PROGGED. BUT NO
LARGE-SCALE WARM UP IS ON THE HORIZON JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT KBFD
AND KJST FROM A PERIOD OF SNOW IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING SWD FROM THE LWR LKS. DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER CLOUD BASES/VSBYS ACRS CNTRL AND SERN TAFS THIS EVE.
SOME LGT SNOW IS LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SWD...BUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AOA
MVFR RANGE.

IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED ARND 00Z AT KBFD AND LATE TONIGHT ELSEWHERE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MAINLY VFR CONDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BFD/JST...WHERE
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU. BY LATE MORNING...ANY LINGERING
STRATOCU OVR THE W MTNS SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS -RA/SN SHOWERS PSBL NRN TIER.
TUE...LOW CIGS PSBL EARLY. RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS PSBL TUE NGT.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LKLY IN RAIN/SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL