


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --059 FXUS61 KCTP 110814 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 414 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal temperatures into mid July * Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of producing isolated wind damage today (Thursday) and Friday * Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week with the strongest wet signals on Sunday and Monday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --Mainly clear skies, light wind and sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s (NRN Mtns) to the low 70s in SE PA will allow for fairly widespread fog formation tonight throughout the more narrow/deeper valley locations, where vsbys will likely drop to AOB 1 mile. Cloud-wise, the squeeze play is on for several more hours this morning as low stratus advects westward into the Lower Susq Valley while mid and high clouds will cover almost the NW half of the state by Daybreak. Low temperatures at sunrise will be near 60 over the Northern Mtns and mid 60s to low 70s from the Central Mtns SE to the Mid and Lower Susq Valley. Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will lead to plenty of sunshine across the bulk of the CWA once again today, with the aforementioned cloud areas thinning out during the late morning. Scattered showers and pulse TSRA will develop during the afternoon hours as ens mean MU CAPE peaks in the 1500-1750 J/KG area (after 16Z) and 0-3 KM bulk shear stays below 15KTS. Negating factor for more widespread convection will be the notable, +10-11C cap (700 MB Temp) we have over much of the region. High temps today will be 3-5 deg F above normal today with low to mid 80s across the Mtns and upper 80s to around 90F in the central and southern valleys. Lows tonight will be about 2-3 deg F higher than Thursdays.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Despite the absence of a pronounced focusing/triggering mechanism for CI, diurnal heating of a seasonably warm, moist and weakly capped airmass will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. Although precipitable water values look to trend lower vs. previous days, there will still be at least a marginal risk for a few water-loaded downbursts and localized heavy rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wet signal strength likely peaks Sunday into Monday which appears tied to a frontal system progressing eastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through CPA. There will be at least some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as this system moves through, with ensembles showing moderate instability developing. Confidence is low, however, on the exact timing of any storms. There is increasing confidence in a 48hr break in the rainy summer pattern next Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is reflected in the latest medium range models and ensemble guidance which shows sfc high pressure/upper level ridge moving into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system. Temperatures will remain firmly in summer mode trending near to above (+5-10F) the historical average moving into 2H of July. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Early today, mainly clear skies and calm winds will support visibility restriction in BR/FG across the region. The best chance for IFR cigs/vis will be in northwest PA (KBFD) and southeast PA (KMDT and KLNS) from fog/low ceilings. MVFR restrictions are possible for a few hours at JST, AOO, and UNV as well, though confidence is lower there. IPT will see MVFR restrictions and IFR restrictions are possible. Chance for IFR cigs/vis run about 30% in the central swath of airfields, rising to >70% on the bookends northwest and southeast. Improving conditions will develop late this morning. There will be isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing after 16z with the peak coverage of this convection occurring between 19-23Z. Outlook... Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south. Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely. Mon...Still storms around.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bauco SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff/Tyburski