National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 280351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER