Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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624 FXUS61 KCTP 251842 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weather disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to western portions of the area this evening. These storms will diminish as they more into east later this evening. A seasonally warm and humid late- summer weather pattern will continue across Central Pennsylvania into next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HRRR runs show convection entering nw cwa this evening. A few of these storms will be quite strong with frequent lightning...gusty winds and brief heavy downpours accompanying them as the move east and southeast. Convection will weaken after sunset with loss of heating...somewhere close to Centre County and points north south...likely not making it much further east. After convection diminishes look for another warm and humid night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Ridging will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of convection. Slight less surface moisture will make things feel more comfortable though temperatures will once again top out well above average. Sfc high will build over the region Friday night, resulting in a fair and mild night. Will have to watch for the possibility of patchy valley fog over the northern mtns late.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Center of subtropical ridge over the southeast conus is progged by all models to migrate northeast to the Mid Atlantic by this weekend. Lg scale subsidence and warm temps aloft assoc with this feature should translate to hot and humid conds with little chance of rain across most of Central Pa. However, a shortwave tracking across southern Ontario could trigger sct late day shra/tsra on Sunday across northwest Pa. 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both strongly favor a continuation of well abv normal temps into next week with mean 8h temps still btwn 18-20C. Weakening upper ridge is progged by mdls to slip southward a bit, placing Pa within a more favorable regime for diurnal convection on northern edge of upper ridge within plume of anomalous PWATS. High humidity and warm nights appear likely into next week, esp across southern Pa, where anomalous PWATs on the order of +1SD indicated in the 00Z GEFS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered convection this evening across nw portion of area with improving conditions late evening. Outlook... Fri...A.M. restrictions possible; becoming VFR. Isold thunderstorms possible southern 1/4 airspace in the afternoon. Sat...Patchy A.M. fog. Otherwise no sig wx expected. Sun...Isold thunderstorms possible western 1/3 airspace in the afternoon. Mon...Isold-sct thunderstorms possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Ross/Steinbugl

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