Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200654 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 154 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with well above normal temperatures is expected through the end of the upcoming week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Satellite loop at 03Z showing broken stratus across southern Somerset County and clear skies across the rest of central Pa. Fair weather will continue overnight, as surface ridge builds east from the Grt Lks. Model soundings do indicate the chance of some low clouds developing after midnight across the northern mountains, in addition to southern Somerset County, under the weak upslope flow and strengthening subsidence inversion. Across southern Somerset, diminishing wind and higher dewpoints will also likely lead to patchy fog later tonight. The dewpoint depression at Somerset Co Airport is just 2F at 03Z. NationalBlend lows, ranging from the upper 20s northern mountains to upper 30s in the south, still appear on track based on latest observations and LAMP guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Patchy low clouds are possible to start Monday over the northern mountains and part of Somerset County. However, SREF probability data strongly suggests this low level moisture will mix out by late morning, resulting in a mostly sunny day for the entire region. A shortwave diving southeast toward New England this evening will push another dying back door cold front into northeast Pa on Monday. The northeast part of the CWA will feel the greatest change, with highs potentially more than 10F cooler than today. However, based on recent performance of model guidance and an expectation of mostly sunny skies, have leaned toward the warmer ECE numbers, with highs ranging from the upper 40s over the mountains north of IPT, to around 60F across the southwest counties of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. Upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the state Tuesday night. The accompanying rather strong sfc ridge slides to the Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Coast on Tuesday, followed by a weak cold frontal boundary and a brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (West) and over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of Wednesday. Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above average). The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to rebound. The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Predominately VFR flying expected today. Trouble spot may again be KJST with IR satellite showing low clouds/fog restrictions nearby. Maintained continuity from previous TAFs with a period of 1000` ceiling 08-15z. IFR conditions are possible. Low clouds may also develop over the northern airspace toward daybreak and have hedged with SCT cloud group at KBFD/KIPT. Expect widespread VFR flying after 15z under SCT-BKN layered mid-high level clouds. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR possible NW 1/3. Chance of P.M. rain showers. Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx. Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers. Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely. LLWS probable. Strong cold fropa Fri night-early Saturday. && .CLIMATE...
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Updated 200 A.M. 2/20/17 Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19... Harrisburg record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 66 degrees set back in 1997. Williamsport record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 60 degrees set back in 1997 Altoona record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on 2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66 in 1981 (2/18). Bradford record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record high was 56 degrees set back in 1994.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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