Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 200654
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with well above
normal temperatures is expected through the end of the upcoming
week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday
and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Satellite loop at 03Z showing broken stratus across southern
Somerset County and clear skies across the rest of central Pa.
Fair weather will continue overnight, as surface ridge builds
east from the Grt Lks. Model soundings do indicate the chance of
some low clouds developing after midnight across the northern
mountains, in addition to southern Somerset County, under the
weak upslope flow and strengthening subsidence inversion. Across
southern Somerset, diminishing wind and higher dewpoints will
also likely lead to patchy fog later tonight. The dewpoint
depression at Somerset Co Airport is just 2F at 03Z.
NationalBlend lows, ranging from the upper 20s northern
mountains to upper 30s in the south, still appear on track based
on latest observations and LAMP guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Patchy low clouds are possible to start Monday over the
northern mountains and part of Somerset County. However, SREF
probability data strongly suggests this low level moisture will
mix out by late morning, resulting in a mostly sunny day for the
A shortwave diving southeast toward New England this evening
will push another dying back door cold front into northeast Pa
on Monday. The northeast part of the CWA will feel the greatest
change, with highs potentially more than 10F cooler than today.
However, based on recent performance of model guidance and an
expectation of mostly sunny skies, have leaned toward the warmer
ECE numbers, with highs ranging from the upper 40s over the
mountains north of IPT, to around 60F across the southwest
counties of the CWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.
Upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the state Tuesday
night. The accompanying rather strong sfc ridge slides to the
Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Coast on Tuesday, followed by
a weak cold frontal boundary and a brief period or two of
showers for late Tuesday (West) and over the Central and Eastern
parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of
Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to
suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above
The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to
The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend.
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Predominately VFR flying expected today. Trouble spot may again
be KJST with IR satellite showing low clouds/fog restrictions
nearby. Maintained continuity from previous TAFs with a period
of 1000` ceiling 08-15z. IFR conditions are possible. Low clouds
may also develop over the northern airspace toward daybreak and
have hedged with SCT cloud group at KBFD/KIPT. Expect widespread
VFR flying after 15z under SCT-BKN layered mid-high level clouds.
Tue...Sub-VFR possible NW 1/3. Chance of P.M. rain showers.
Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx.
Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers.
Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely. LLWS probable.
Strong cold fropa Fri night-early Saturday.
-- Changed Discussion --Updated 200 A.M. 2/20/17
Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19...
Harrisburg record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record
high was 66 degrees set back in 1997.
Williamsport record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record
high was 60 degrees set back in 1997
Altoona record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on
2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66
in 1981 (2/18).
Bradford record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record high
was 56 degrees set back in 1994.
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SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte