Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202013 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 413 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... MAIN AREA OF PCPN IS NARROW N-S BAND EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM IPT JUST EAST OF HGR AS OF 19Z. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS AFTN...MVMT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH HAS LIMITED HVY RNFL THREAT. THERE ARE STILL GOING TO BE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT FF RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY EWD MVMT AND HIGHER FFG OVER ERN PA. HIRES MDL CONSENSUS IS FOR ISOLD TO SCT (DISORGANIZED) SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL ZONES THRU THE EVE AND CUT BACK POPS TO CHC RANGE (30-50 PCT). THE LOSS OF HEATING COUPLED WITH LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER POPS AND DIMINISHING PCPN TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH BLYR AND LGT/VRB WINDS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG/ST TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THU AM...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE. STEEP LPS RATES CAUSED BY COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SCT-NMRS AFTN CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. GEFS 925MB TEMPS IMPLY ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS FROM THE M70S TO M80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LKLY IN N-S BAND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVG E FROM IPT-HGR LINE. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTM ARE POSSIBLE OVER WRN-CNTRL SXNS IN ZOB SECTOR HOWEVER CVRG IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAFS. AVN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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