Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021856 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 256 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST PA AND MD THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP OVER SOUTHERN PA...AND SOME COULD MAKE GUSTY WINDS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ALONG THE OLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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CLEARING GETS FILLED IN WITH DIURNAL CU QUICKLY AS IT OCCURS. FRONT APPEARS TO BE INTO KJST/KSEG AND STILL MOVING S. IT MAY STALL AS IT REACHES SE PA. SO FAR NO DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY THE EARLIER CAP AND THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE POSS OF SH/TSRA IS THERE FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S. THE DRY AIR AND CLEARING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 70S IN THE SW/SC AND THE ACTIVE CLEARING IN THE SE WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 50S TO POP UP INTO THE 60S AND L70S THERE TOO. AS WE LOSE HEATING...ANY SH/TSRA SHOULD DIE. BUT THE ENERGY DRIVING THE STORMS OVER KY WILL BE CROSSING WV/VA AND BRING A GOOD AREA OF LIFT INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...MORE RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD RAIN/STORMS INTO THE SE THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE MODEL QPF IS IN THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE. DESPITE OUR VERY RECENT WET SPELL..THIS SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY WORRIES FOR FLOODING. POPS WILL TAPER OFF TO LITTLE OR NIL NW OF UNV-IPT. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL BE PAST US BY SUNRISE TUES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE WILL LOWER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE DAY AS HEATING AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT. SOME SCT SHRA WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AFTER MORNING MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE POPS LOWER IN THE E AND HIGHER IN THE W. TEMPS TUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THUS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING. THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY PRECIP EVENT. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME. SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CONVECTION JUST NOT POPPING ALONG THE FRONT...PERHAPS DUE TO SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN FL050 AND FL100 AND ALSO A MINOR CAPPING INVERSION AROUND THAT SAME LEVEL. THERE IS STILL A CHC FOR A TSRA BEFORE SUNSET IN THE FAR SRN TIER...BUT MAINLY TO THE S OF AOO-JST. KMDT AND KLNS ARE BREAKING OUT OF THE MIRE NOW AND SOME CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP THERE BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN LIFT/FORCING...THERE IS A WAVE ROLLING UP THE OLD FRONT ACROSS WV/VA. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA SLIDING ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA - MAINLY MDT AND LNS - EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR THERE AND IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN JST-AOO-UNV-IPT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST...THE CLOUDS WILL START TO LIFT. DIURNAL MIXING ON TUES WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHRA AROUND THE WRN SITES. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. AFTN SHRA POSS...MAINLY E. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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