Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260244 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1044 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RACED UP INTO WESTERN NY...LEAVING CENTRAL PA VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION. THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/. HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS . && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR 12Z ISSUANCE. A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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