Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011738 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 138 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH. POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA. SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST. GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS. MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...GRUMM

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