Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 300334
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1134 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and
mainly dry weather into Wednesday. A cold front will move across
the commonwealth late Wednesday and early Thursday, followed by a
refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure and associated low PWAT air mass building into Pa
will provide the region with a clear and tranquil night with a
return to near seasonal temps.
A calm wind, combined with warm river/stream water, should promote
patchy late night fog in the deep valleys north of I-80. Latest
HREF output supports this idea of valley fog confined mainly
to northern Pa between 06Z-13Z.
Lows will drop back into the 50s (40s in the normal cold spots) over
central and northern areas, with lower 60s over the far south.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Large scale subsidence and relatively low PWATs assoc with high
pressure should result in abundant sunshine and light wind
Tuesday. An examination of GEFS 925/850 mean temps suggests the air
mass over Pa will remain warmer than average, with max temps
likely ranging from arnd 80F over the northern mtns, to the
mid/upper 80s over the Lower Susq Valley.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s
Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher
terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough
amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor adjustments made to the TAFS this evening.
Nice afternoon outside with no clouds and VFR conditions
earlier has prevailed into the evening hours.
High pressure will be over the region overnight, resulting in
clear skies and light winds. Did not change much from the
earlier TAF package. Did put some fog in LNS TAF.
Expect any fog to burn off by 14Z on Tuesday.
Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.
Thu-Sat...No sig wx expected.
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SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte