Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 181858 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 258 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAIR WEATHER CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN NY STATE THIS AFTN HAS MADE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SWD DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CU WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE. TONIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG THE NORTHERN PA BORDER. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HOWEVER LINGER ALONG THE NRN BORDER. ALSO..WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH OF PA...ENOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENT MAY REMAIN TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BORDERLINE TEMP/DEWPOINTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST UP NORTH ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WILL TURN SERLY/SRLY HELPING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN FREE..MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FALL-FEELING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A PERIOD OF LOW/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SRN NY STATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS PA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO LATE THIS EVENING. THEN ONCE AGAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REINTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON - TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...GARTNER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.