Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291531 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W. SUN...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...ROSS

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