Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 230251
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical
ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring
the mention of mainly afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms
in the forecast, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm
and generally dry.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clear across the region as of 10 PM.
For now will go with a dry fcst overnight. As was the case
last nigh, still some concern. One cell on the south shore
of Lake Erie. This cell in a region of dewpoints in the lower
70s, same as the dewpoint around the MDT area.
Main thing going for showers and storms over the NW last night
and tonight, is stronger wind fields at the lower levels noted on
the 00Z BUF sounding again. About 40 knots last night and 30 knots
Will continue to monitor overnight.
Earlier discussion below.
Several storms formed over the northeast part of the CWA, but
now are east of the area. Storms over Ohio south of Lake Erie
Updated grids, zones, HWO, nowcast, and DDS graphics sent.
Overnight lows will average around 10 deg above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
3H weather, hazy-hot and humid, is in store for Saturday. With
the warm air aloft and a weak surface high in the low levels, it
will be a dry day with plenty of sunshine, a great day for the
pool or lake, but no relief for agricultural interests badly in
need of rain.
Highs will be well above normal, ranging from the mid 80s over the
NW to mid 90s over the SE.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big story in the extended fcst is expected heat wave lasting into
early next week, as axis of subtropical ridge briefly shifts from
the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging
building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend,
as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Next chance of shra/tsra
for most of the area comes Monday ahead of shortwave working
across the Great Lakes. However, any rainfall Monday is likely to
do little to stem the dry pattern we have been in. Latest GEFS
mean qpf is up to a half an inch at most.
12Z ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps are near 22C Saturday through
Monday, indicating the potential of several days in a row with
highs in the 90s in the valleys. The hottest temps look to be on
Saturday as latest GEFS gives high temperature anomalies in the
+4 standard deviation and have slightly backed off on Sunday. Have
adjusted Max temperatures accordingly. Heat indices around 100F
appear possible by Mon across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints
are advected into the area ahead of potential convection.
Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at
night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with
highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears
likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However,
temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a
generally zonal flow.
Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions over the next 48 hours will only be
punctuated by some areas of MVFR fog which is expected across
central and northwestern airfields overnight tonight and again on
Saturday night...mainly between 08z and 13z.
While no organized precipitation is expected over the weekend, localized
restrictions are possible Sunday with an isolated TSRA.
SUN...Early morning fog possible...otherwise VFR with an isolated
TSRA possible north.
MON-TUE...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
WED...No sig wx.
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte