Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261428 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1028 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday. This feature will keep it cooler than normal into Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across the region today and Tuesday, especially across the northern part of the Keystone state during the afternoon hours. A warm up and return of higher humidity levels will occur on Thursday, as high pressure moves off the east coast. While temperatures will average near to above normal for the second half of the week, there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Those hot LE water temps are again bubbling convection as any December day would, but the June temps and moisture are leading to much taller showers and thunderstorms. These storms should continue to drift inland but may decrease in coverage slightly as they hit the temporarily stable land. Cu already popping up at 10am and destabilization should form additional/numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon. The heating may pop them first off the higher ground and where moisture is highest - mainly where it may have rained yesterday. Dewpoints will dip back to the 40s in lots of places this afternoon, so the brief showers may barely make the ground wet as they move along steadily. Coverage will be greatest in the nrn mtns where 70-80 POPs have been painted. Timing will be centered around 22Z in the NC/Cent mtns with a bell curve around then earlier in the NW and later in the NE/EC counties. Temps will be a little cooler than Sun and certainly below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Showers should diminish with loss of heating but they could linger a few hours after sunset in the NE/Poconos. Another round of nocturnal-mid-lake-convergence-driven-convection could POP up. But, guidance also whips a strong short wave trough through the upper Great Lakes and pushes showers and thunderstorms over the second half of the night into wrn PA. These may reach into the Laurels/Alleghenies by morning and have placed low chc POPs there. But, most of the area will be clear and cool off well. It will likely be cooler tonight and Mon AM. Tuesday may hold a few less showers in the aftn with the negative influence of the rising heights behind the strong short wave passing overhead in the morning. But, we could have showers during a longer period (earlier) in the day than the last few days. The afternoon heating and cool air aloft will still generate showers in the nrn tier. Max temps will be similar to Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by Wed. As the high moves off the east coast by Thursday, a southwest flow of warmer air will work into the area. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels for the weekend along with an increase in convective activity - especially over NW half of CWA. Convection will be more scattered over the SE. Still a tendency to have an abnormally strong jet across the northwest states so far this warm season. While this may allow a warm up at times, the weather pattern is very active for late June. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will dominate the pattern today with winds picking up by late morning, early afternoon. Showers will also develop this afternoon, mainly across the north. I have included categorical SHRA during the mid/late day hours though conditions should predominately remain VFR with perhaps short periods of MVFR in showers. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KCCX radar work should be wrapping up later today - which would be slightly ahead of schedule. There will be outages today as alignments are completed after the installation of the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. Complete return to regular service may be late today if all goes well with the checks/alignments.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Martin/RXR AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru EQUIPMENT...

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