Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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585 FXUS61 KCTP 182018 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 318 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days. Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb well above normal over the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. A cold front will move through the area later Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Latest GOES16 visual loop shows the low clouds over northern areas mixing and thinning out. The remainder of the region is just cold and dry with some thin clouds. Fair weather will continue overnight with lows dropping into the teens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Variable mid and high clouds will be on tap Friday. Highs will rebound above freezing in most locations, with temps as warm as the mid 40s likely along the MD border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Main change was to slow down rain and snow moving out next Tuesday by a few hours. Did take rain and snow out for Saturday night, as we will be between systems, with some ridging. Supported by new EC run. More detail below. High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week will bring mild and dry weather to the area which will last through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of Liq Equiv precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums of snow. Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A shield of MVFR strato-cu over the far north is finally showing signs of mixing out and diminishing. Widespread VFR is the rule elsewhere and will continue at least into Friday. The strong gradient that is bringing the drier air and fair skies will allow for a period of LLWS to the region. Outlook... Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. Tue...MVFR/IFR with snow showers west and north. VFR central and eastern terminals. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Dry and colder weather tonight will form additional ice as stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff. Flood watch for far southeast into Saturday, given amt of ice in Susquehanna River.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...La Corte HYDROLOGY...Ross/Martin

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