Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 020953 CCA AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 553 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA. RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP. FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT 7-12 KTS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/. PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.