Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230251 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1051 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring the mention of mainly afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms in the forecast, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm and generally dry. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Clear across the region as of 10 PM. For now will go with a dry fcst overnight. As was the case last nigh, still some concern. One cell on the south shore of Lake Erie. This cell in a region of dewpoints in the lower 70s, same as the dewpoint around the MDT area. Main thing going for showers and storms over the NW last night and tonight, is stronger wind fields at the lower levels noted on the 00Z BUF sounding again. About 40 knots last night and 30 knots tonight. Will continue to monitor overnight. Earlier discussion below. Several storms formed over the northeast part of the CWA, but now are east of the area. Storms over Ohio south of Lake Erie have weaken. Updated grids, zones, HWO, nowcast, and DDS graphics sent. Overnight lows will average around 10 deg above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... 3H weather, hazy-hot and humid, is in store for Saturday. With the warm air aloft and a weak surface high in the low levels, it will be a dry day with plenty of sunshine, a great day for the pool or lake, but no relief for agricultural interests badly in need of rain. Highs will be well above normal, ranging from the mid 80s over the NW to mid 90s over the SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is expected heat wave lasting into early next week, as axis of subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However, any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern we have been in. Latest GEFS mean qpf is up to a half an inch at most. 12Z ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps are near 22C Saturday through Monday, indicating the potential of several days in a row with highs in the 90s in the valleys. The hottest temps look to be on Saturday as latest GEFS gives high temperature anomalies in the +4 standard deviation and have slightly backed off on Sunday. Have adjusted Max temperatures accordingly. Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Mon across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions over the next 48 hours will only be punctuated by some areas of MVFR fog which is expected across central and northwestern airfields overnight tonight and again on Saturday night...mainly between 08z and 13z. While no organized precipitation is expected over the weekend, localized restrictions are possible Sunday with an isolated TSRA. OUTLOOK... SUN...Early morning fog possible...otherwise VFR with an isolated TSRA possible north. MON-TUE...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. WED...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/La Corte

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