Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240129 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 929 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F. THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH... BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA. QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS. A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL. ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. OUTLOOK... SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER

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