Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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896 FXUS61 KCTP 131028 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 528 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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POLAR VORTEX OVR S QUEBEC WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ARCTIC AIR MASS POURING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WCHILLS ALREADY 10-15 BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS AT 09Z AND EXPECT THOSE READINGS TO FALL THRU MID AM...AS TEMPS FALL AND WINDS PICK UP. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SC MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER...00Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL A BIT SHORT OF 40KTS IN MOST SPOTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE LAST WINTER. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN -22F AND -25F SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE SE. RADAR AT 10Z SHOWING SCT SHSN ACCOMPANYING ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVR NORTHERN PA BY ARND 12Z...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS BASED ON LATEST MDL OUTPUT. BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS FLOWING OVR THE LAKES WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF LK HURON PLUME AND LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS INDICATED ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS. LATEST SPC SSEO INDICATES ALMOST NO CHC OF 3 INCH AMTS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NCAR MEAN SNOWFALL TODAY ONLY AN INCH OR LESS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP CURRENT LES WARNING/ADVISORY BY ARND DAWN. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LK HURON CONNECTION TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. CONSALL QPF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVR THE LAURELS TODAY OF ARND AN INCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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FALLING INVERSION HGTS UPON APPROACH OF SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE TO FLURRIES OVR THE W MTNS TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY FALLING TONIGHT. SUPERBLEND AND 00Z ECME MOS INDICATE MIN TEMPS FROM 5-10F BLW OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. DANGEROUS WCHILLS WILL FINALLY RELENT BY SUNDAY AFTN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY MSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. STILL A VERY COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SQUALL CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS AND ANALYSIS SHOWS IT IS SPLINTERING AND WEAKENING AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND. DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS IN LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...THOUGH IN THE LINEAR BAND OF SNOW EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037- 041-042. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017-024-033. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017- 018-024-033. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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