Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190647 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 247 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE CENTRAL PA MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOWER CLOUDS MOVING/FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MOIST NERLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. BUT COVERAGE IS ACTUALLY BECOMING MORE SPOTTY THESE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NY BORDER ARE NEAR 40F...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUD AND NE WIND TO KEEP A WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MIX AWAY. BUT ANOTHER DAY 3 TO 5F BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND L70S IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FORCE A LONG-FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC AND UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA. THIS SHOULD CREATE A BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG AS IT SETTLES IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE LOW-CLOUD PROBLEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SO OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...MAXES TRY TO RUN UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THAT MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC...SO A LITTLE EXTRA THOUGHT WILL HAVE TO GO INTO MAXES ON SATURDAY. WILL FINALIZE THESE IN A FEW HOURS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN AROUND 60F SAT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING ON POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY SLIPPING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE. LOOKS LIKE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR MIDWEEK AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE NO PRECIP AND ONLY SCT CLOUDINESS IN MOST PLACES. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY AT 03Z IS ALREADY SHOWING A PATCH OF LOWER CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. KBFD JUST DROPPED TO A 800FT CIG AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN POSSIBLY WORK SOUTH TO KJST ARND DAWN. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PRES GRADIENT SUGGESTS A NERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD VIS RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALL MODEL DATA THEN SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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