Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270737 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 237 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE SLIDES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL AT LEAST 07-08Z SAT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE /WITH LIGHT SFC WIND/ WILL BE TO TRIM THE TEMP DROP BY A FEW TO SVRL DEG F. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHILE THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK SAT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A SW BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE HIGH RECEDES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW LIGHT PRECIP TRYING TO SNEAK INTO MY NWRN ZONES BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER...BUT THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY AS DOES THE ECMWF...SO I OPTED FOR THE DRY FORECAST. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLOUD UP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE AN OVERALL VERY FINE EARLY WINTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...SOME 10 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SINKING SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH COOLING 850 TEMPS...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTCOME AT THIS TIME SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE BRADFORD TAF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-WED...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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