Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041122 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 722 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE LAST OF THE SHRA/TSRA EXITING LANCASTER CO AT 0945Z...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING PASSES EAST OF PA. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 09Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AM TO CLEAR LANCASTER CO. HOWEVER...EXPECT A DRY MORNING...GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG/LOW CIGS EARLY THIS AM ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD MIX OUT ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CHILLY MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMT OF CU/STRATOCU AS WELL AS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH...A SHOT OF ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR...SEEN IN LOOP OF SATL-DERIVED PWATS OVR THE MIDWEST...WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN PA TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MSUNNY AND DRY WX OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON AMT OF MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SCT SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE N MTNS WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHRA LATE TONIGHT W/PASSAGE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS. SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON WED...SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MSUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 15-22Z. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL

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