Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250532 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 132 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY. AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID. WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. 25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. 25/00Z... THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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