Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282003 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 403 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SKIES ALMOST CLEAR ALREADY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CREST OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM. DRY AIR WILL THWART FOG FORMATION IN ALL BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6 AM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIG HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND U.S. FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEING HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM AIR BACK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG WEEKEND. VFR SKIES AND VIZ WILL ONLY BE MARRED BY SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING. EVEN THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...DANGELO

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