Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271440 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1040 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VIZ LOOPS SHOWS THE STRATOCU DEVELOPING SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO DAYS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD AIR ALOFT SWING THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COOL DAY FOR QUITE A WHILE. BELOW SEASONAL ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS OF ONLY AROUND 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. NW SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK VERTICAL MIXING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A LARGE...1020 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BY SEVERAL DEG C...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY...FLAT CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MIN TEMPS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL BE UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN EARLY THURSDAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING SWRLY SFC FLOW...TOPPED BY A GENERALLY ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WARMUP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS RISING HEIGHTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT INTO NEXT WEEK...AS IT REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE...AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE S.E. US...AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PROBABLE HURRICANE ERIKA LURKING SOMEWHERE JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND MVG GRADUALLY NORTH OR NW. IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INDICATED...THEN THIS WOULD KEEP ANY STORMY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR AS THE DAY CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN...PROVIDING FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

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