Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231843 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off of the eastern seaboard tonight, allowing a warm front to lift into the region Friday. Patchy sleet and freezing rain is expected over central and northern areas from the early to late morning Friday before precipitation changes to all rain. The rain front will stall along the New York border, then oscillate in the vicinity of northern Pennsylvania through early next week...separating milder air to the south from cooler air and showers north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Much milder conditions being enjoyed late this afternoon thanks to return southerly flow west of the offshore sfc ridge. Scattered cirrus is slightly dimming sunshine in spots but overall a much more pleasant day than Wednesday across central PA. The first half of tonight will be clear and calm with temperatures falling off through the 30s to near or below freezing across much of central and north central areas. Warm front advances overnight and model consensus brings a period of precipitation across the commonwealth after 06z...a mixture of IP and ZR for many areas...which has prompted Winter Weather Advisory issuance for the northern two thirds of central PA east of the Alleghenies. Far southern tier may see patchy freezing rain...but confidence too low at this time for WSW issuance as per collaboration with LWX, PHI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Model consensus keeps threat of fzra between 09Z-15Z Friday...before changing to plain rain central and northeast. Expect less than one tenth of an inch of ice as QPF is light, but untreated roads will become slippery for morning rush. WAA lifts north of the region with 850mb baroclinic zone by midday Friday, indicating a dry and warmer afternoon across the area. Models indicate surface warm front will work into the central counties late in the day, pushing temps well into the 50s, while areas east of IPT and LNS will likely remain in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models and ensembles continue to show a series of upper troughs progressing onshore from the Eastern Pacific and across the Southwest/South-Central Plains before deamplifying as they move east of the MS River. The first of 3 upper troughs emerges from the Southern Plains and crosses into the MS Valley Sunday and continues to weaken as surface frontal wave translates downstream crossing the OH Valley/Great Lakes into the northern Mid Atlantic states by Monday. Blend of NBM/ECENS/WPC still indicating max POPs in the Sunday-Sunday timeframe. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as 00Z GEFS indicates Pa remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR flying through the period. High to mid level clouds will increase tonight with surface winds veering to 90-160 degrees. Light precip will likely move across the airspace between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday. Outlook... Fri...VFR/MVFR. Pcpn ending after 18z. Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. && .CLIMATE... Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites: MDT: 14 in 1934 IPT: 8 in 1906 BFD: 5 in 1959 AOO: 15 in 1960 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for PAZ006-012-019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl AVIATION...DeVoir/Evanego CLIMATE...

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