Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252012 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 412 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT GET THICK. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WELL-ALOFT MAY THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ANY LOW CLOUD DECK AND REAL MOISTURE DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DOES SHOW UP OVER THE SE BY DAYBREAK - SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. BUT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW AT 4-5KFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE GET CHILLY AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE SO COLD AS FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING TEMPER INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LLJ BRINGING HIGHER POPS AS DAY GIVES WAY TO EVE. SCT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE W AND N LATE AFT INTO SAT NIGHT AS POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPS /WITH ISO STRONGER STORMS POSS APPROACHING WESTERN BORDER OF CWA IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT./ SPC BRINGS SLIGHT RISK AREA TO NEAR W BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING BACK UP AND BECOMING NOTICABLE LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE FOR SAT NIGHT. MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST SHAPING UP TO BE SUNDAY. SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH FOCUS ON A POTENT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND CROSSING PA SUN NIGHT. EFFECTS OF MCS MAY IMPACT HOW EVENT PLAYS OUT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR PEAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS/EVOLUTION...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS POTENT ENOUGH FOR POSS OF SCT SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHEAST EARLY WEEK AS RIDGE ESTABLISHS ITSELF AGAIN OVER WESTERN U.S. AND NEAR BERMUDA. SO CONTINUED MENTION OF SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TROUGH SLOWLY FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A COUPLE NOTICABLY COOL MORNINGS AND BELOW NORMAL MAXES BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY GRADUALLY REBOUND LATER IN THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING. SO I WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS THEN POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT. OUTLOOK... MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR. SHRA POSS MTNS. && .CLIMATE... KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN CLIMATE...

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