Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261506 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1106 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER. MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME. SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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...UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW.... PREVIOUS: AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST. 06Z INFO. STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT BFD. HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN AREAS. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN

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