Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251203 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 803 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A pleasant day is in store for the region as drier air and a good deal of sunshine makes for a comfortable afternoon. Isolated afternoon and evening showers are possible again over mainly central and north central sections as another upper air disturbance tracks overhead, but most of the day will be dry. The drier air stick around through much of the coming week. Widely scattered showers may still pop up each afternoon across the northern part of the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BKN cigs associated with earlier shower activity are slowly exiting Sullivan County into KBGM forecast area. The remainder of central PA is clear to partly cloudy early this morning. Today will be almost a carbon copy of Saturday across central PA...with yet another upper air disturbance tracking overhead during max daytime heating to touch off isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly central and northern PA. Areal coverage should be wider than Saturday afternoon, with perhaps south central and southeastern areas seeing isolated coverage at peak heating. Humidity will be comfortably low. Sfc winds will gust into the teens by late morning and afternoon. Highs will be several degrees cooler than Saturday throughout... ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Isold to sct evening convection bubbles back down shortly past sunset...leading to another comfortably cool overnight. Mins will range from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s southeast. Clouds will increase towards morning over Lake Erie as another upper wave tracks across the region. POPs will increase late over the northwest mountains as a result...but think it will remain dry through Monday morning. POPs increase along and north of I80 on Monday as the aforementioned wave tracks along or just north of the PA/NY border. Southern half of central PA will remain mainly dry on Monday. Humidity will remain comfortable. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms again on Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity midweek. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels with noticeably increasing humidity by next Friday/Saturday along with an increase in convective activity. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR will continue across all of Central Pennsylvania through at least the late morning hours with just some areas of fairly shallow high based strato cu and low-end alto cu drifting east. Broad large scale lift associated with the right entrance region of a 110 kt upper level swrly jet will combine with an approaching weak sfc trough to spark isolated-scattered showers across the northern mtns of PA this afternoon (perhaps as early as 15Z invof KBFD). HRRR and latest NAM confirms this evolution pretty nicely with a splattering of echoes across the northern third to half of PA this afternoon. Similar to Saturday, westerly winds will pick up during the mid/late morning in all locations as vertical mixing rapidly climbs to 6-7 kft agl, tapping wind of 20-25 kts at that level. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered/numerous SHRA/TSRA north. Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA north.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for the next 2 to 3 days for technicians to install the first of 4 major service- life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/Lambert EQUIPMENT...

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