Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290742 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 342 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEASTERN PENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... A VERY PLEASANT AUGUST NIGHT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER PLACES WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED BY ANOTHER FEW DEG F EARLY TODAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEARLY CALM AIR IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH EARLY TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AFTER THE PATCHY EARLY FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF...TODAY WILL KEEP THE RECENT STRING OF MAINLY FAIR DAYS IN TACT...WHILE WARMING UP BY 4 OR 5 DEG ON AVERAGE. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. BFD BRIEFLY WENT BELOW IFR...AS HAS UNV...AND CONSIDERING THE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE PATCHY FOG IS LESS DENSE THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS SO IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDEER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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