Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041524 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1124 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MIDDAY...WILL EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE LOOKING CFRONT FROM NEAR KELM SWWD TO KUNV AND KCBE. RATHER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WAS STILL PRESENT TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 60S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGHER PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REGION. A TONGUE OF DEEP/DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA. LITTLE OR NO CHC FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. IN CONTRAST...THE MOIST LLVLS...APPROACHING SFC FRONT...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WILL TEAM UP TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCT STRONG TSRA ACROSS PARTS OF THE NCENT MTNS...MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SE/. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SUSQ REGION...AND AS SOME DRIER AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE ALOFT...THESE VALUES SHOULD GROW A BIT MORE TO 1200-1400 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC MID LVL TEMPS COOLING BY UP TO SVRL DEG C SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMT OF MDT CU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE. AFTER MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON AMT OF MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SCT SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE N MTNS WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHRA LATE TONIGHT W/PASSAGE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS. SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON WED...SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MSUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 035-050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 15-22Z. ISOLATED/BRIEF...AND MAINLY MVFR SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE INVOF KBFD...KMDT AND KLNS THROUGH 00Z WED. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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