Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151555 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1155 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...PRECEDED BY RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...AND FOLLOWED BY SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGEOVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AFTER A MILD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WITH LOWER TO MID 30S COMMON FURTHER WEST WHERE THE RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. MINOR ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL OCCUR ON MAINLY GRASSY SFCS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MID APRIL SUN ANGLE/RADIATION IS TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO MAKE IT REALLY STICK ON THE ROADS. SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON THE ROADS...BUT THE RECENT WARM WEATHER AND MILD GROUND TEMPS SHOULD HELP MAKE TRAVEL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCONVENIENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CAUSING THEIR TEMPS /CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S/ TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PLUME OF HEAVIEST RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A 10 MINUTE DOWNPOUR WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL RIGHT AT THE TIME OF THE CFROPA...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RATES PRECEDING AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. CONSIDERING THAT 3 AND 6-HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN /UP TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS SCHUYLKILL CTY/ HAS FALLEN SO FAR...IT/S RUNOFF SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY MORE THAN SOME TRANSIENT...NUISANCE FLOODING PROBLEMS - AND MAINLY IN THE URBAN AREAS. ACRS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS...DIMINISHING LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO PERIODS OF WET SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER SLIDE TO SEVERAL DEG C BELOW ZERO. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST /RIGHT ALONG THE CFRONT/ THROUGH 19Z...BUT THIS IS LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY AS THE MAIN SOUTHERLY LLJ HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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PRECIP SHOULD DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT BY SUNSET IN THE EAST...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE LOWERS TO BELOW 4 KFT AGL. UPPER LOW IS FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S. EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE GROWING SEASON STARTING ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY...HAVE COORDINATED WITH LWX/PHI ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONCERN IS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES /25-30F/ ADVERSELY IMPACTING EARLY-BLOOMING/SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS..BUT NONETHELESS PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EARLY-SEASON PLANTS AND CROPS. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS...IN A MORE TYPICAL FROST/FREEZE REGIME WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WINDS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MARITIME REGIME POSSIBLY ADVECTING LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ INTO THE SERN ZONES. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS THURS-MON...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT ALONG A KBGM TO KIPT AND KHGR LINE AT 1530Z...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH KMDT AND KLNS BETWEEN 17-1830Z ACCOMPANIED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO THE WNW...AND A HEAVY RAIN SQUALL WITH GUSTS FROM 270-300 DEG AT 30-35KT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...WITH PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NRN MTNS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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