Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300514 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 114 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S THROUGHOUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE END OF THE PARTY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN. SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z. HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR. WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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