Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251151 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 751 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will keep it fair today. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes in the first part of the week, and push a cold front through the region late Monday and Monday night. The forecast becomes less certain for the rest of the week as a cut off low may form somewhere over the eastern United States. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Any frost in the northern mountains, and there should be some, will melt quickly in the full sun of the daylight. The fog, however, will take a bit longer. Few if any clouds are expected today, but perhaps a few cu over the Laurel mountains. Maxes should get into nearly-normal m60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunset will allow it to chill off rather quickly in the evening, but advancing mid-upper clouds over the west should slow the fall or even stop it there. More interestingly, there will probably be some low crud creep in on a light srly flow late tonight as the axis of high pressure moves east and a cold front sweeps through the OH valley. The front is tied to a low centered over the Upper Great Lakes, so the front will be well-occluded as it arrives. The front is progged to move through quickly. But, this is somewhat unusual for the synoptic set-up. But, the progs are all very well-aligned and confidence is high in fropa Mon night. Confidence also high in rain for the area. POPs have been nudged higher. Certainty in thunder is getting a bit higher, as well. SPC has placed the far western part of PA into a MRGL risk for Monday- Night. Will continue to mention thunder, but not make it categorical at this point. Temps on Monday should start out cool in the NE, and mild in the SW due to the difference in cloud cover/extent. Hints at dz/--ra are present in the NAM and SREF mean POPs after lower clouds move into the SC mtns. Will just draw a 20 POP in the first part of the day. Maxes will probably be 65-70F on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will linger only chc POPs in the far SE on Tuesday as a buffer of uncertainty of speed of fropa. Temps should stay very near normal for the balance of the week. Any lake effect showers under the cool pocket behind this front are being kept to the north of the CWA. A bit of intrigue has entered the forecast for the rest of the week, as a previously possible cut-off upper level low is looking more likely in these latest prognostic runs. Thus, what may have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. But, the formation of cut- offs and their positions/decay/longevity are always in question. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Clear skies and light wind will continue across central PA today with high pressure in control. Chilly temps over relatively warm rivers/streams has resulted in some fog in the deep valleys of north central Pa. Doesn`t look like any airfields will be affected, and fog should mix out by 13-14z. After that, minimal clouds and widespread VFR for today through tonight. A cold front moves through later Monday into Monday night, which will bring a short period of rain and slight chance tstms along with possible reductions. Outlook... Mon...PM showers/Tstms with reductions possible. Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...Dangelo Near Term...Dangelo Short Term...Dangelo Long Term...Dangelo Aviation...RXR

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