Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210422 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1122 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The weather for Thanksgiving week travel looks mainly tranquil. Tuesday will be mild ahead a cold front that will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dry weather with near average temperatures is expected through Thanksgiving Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some thin high clouds will occasionally bleed over the ridge axis, otherwise clear to scattered skies are expected tonight with minimum temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Readings will be near to slightly below normal for mid November. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... A gusty SW return flow and plenty of sunshine will boost temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday. Clouds will increase into Tuesday night. Expect another shot of cold air to follow behind a cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A period of rain/snow is likely with the frontal passage. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for light snow accumulation/melting-refreezing may create slick roads and areas of difficult travel overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of Pennsylvania early Wednesday. Have dropped POPS through Wednesday though have left slight chance in the NW due to the northwesterly flow across the mountains. Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. There decent agreement in the EC/GFS timing. The trough swings through Saturday morning with 850MB temps right around freezing. So given that overnight lows Saturday morning will be around freezing expect for scattered snow showers across central PA as the trough and associated front begin to cross the region through Saturday afternoon. As the trough moves through temperatures will be marginal through the low levels so a rain/snow mix is currently expected with more chance of snow farther northwest. Still to soon for amounts though any rain/snow mix will tamper any accumulations. Have adjusted temperatures as NBM seems to cold Friday night into Saturday. Minimum temperatures will be below normal through mid week with a warming trend into Saturday before dropping off Sunday and into early next week. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR will continue through the forecast period as high pressure slides east of the Carolina coast. Tightening llvl pressure gradient above the decoupled/stable boundary layer will create LLWS across the Western Mtn TAF sites through the mid morning hours Tuesday. Sfc winds overnight through about 14Z Tuesday will be from the SSW at 10 kts or less across Central and Eastern PA airfields. However, some minimal gusts into the mid teens will occasionally occur at KJST and KBFD. Sustained SSW winds of 10-13Kts with gusts into the mid and upper teens area likely Tuesday, thanks to abundant sunshine and vertical mixing up through several KFT AGL. Outlook... Tue night-Wed...Rain/snow showers along and in the wake of a cold front. MVFR likely wrn 1/2. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru AVIATION...Lambert/Tyburski

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