Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290342 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1142 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700 MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC LIFT. IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS ARND 5KFT. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS. FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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