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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 061528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS RISING NICELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASILY
OUTPACING MOS GUIDANCE. NO HINTS OF LLVL MSTR YET.

PREV...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO CLOUD COVER.

STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
PA...MOSTLY CLEAR UP NORTH AT PRESENT...BUT BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUD DECK IS ADVANCING THROUGH OHIO AND WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.

CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO UP NORTH AND
RANGE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL ANCHOR ITSELF EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.

DESPITE THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD DECK...MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM A MOIST
SOUTHEAST COASTAL U.S. STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
EVENING. WITH CAD PREVALENT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...
MIXING WILL BE INHIBITED AND MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
THROUGH THE 20S. STILL THINK THE LOWER SUSQ WILL TOP OUT NEAR OR
BELOW 30F THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
STRONG CAD CONTINUES TONIGHT...BUT DEEP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
FETCH AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES AROUND OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING LLVL CLOUD COVER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE MARITIME AIR MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH RETREATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...CAD WILL WEAKEN AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAKES A RUN AT THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT REGION OF
PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE...BEFORE THE LOW SCOOTS OFF SHORE AND OUT TO SEA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FAST MOVING NRN STREAM
JET WILL SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM HOWEVER
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FROPAS...THUS MOST OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS BE COLD AND DRY.

THE FIRST NRN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PA ON SAT AND POSSIBLY
STALL OVER THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT APPROACHES LATE
ON TUESDAY.

THE FIRST SRN STEAM WAVE...NOW PRODUCING WINTRY WEATHER OVER
TEXAS...WILL LIFT TO THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER PA. A SECOND
PRONOUNCED WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT PCPN/SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE OBVIOUS LEVEL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME. ABUNDANT COLD AIR WILL LIKELY
STILL BE IN PLACE EVEN AT THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH STILL...ALONG WITH SOME CLDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT CLDS TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SE.

AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...THUS LEFT ALL SITES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR CIGS POSS...ESP SOUTH.
SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY NORTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN