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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 281100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -20F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS AT 10Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND HILLTOP
LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF COOLING
EXPECTED BTWN 10Z-12Z BEFORE TEMPS START TO REBOUND LATER THIS AM.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...