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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 290342
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700
MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD