Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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295 FXUS61 KCTP 291910 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 310 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday. A new cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Other than a small area of slightly enhanced cumulus along the Mason-Dixon line, the only sign of a front is the gradual decrease in dewpoints from south to north across the region. Earlier thinking was that the deeper moisture and weak convergence associated with the very diffuse boundary along the southern border could spark off an isolated storm or two, and that still could happen, but overall I have backed off the pops to reflect the latest guidance showing mainly dry conditions. High temps this afternoon will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains to around 90 in the southern valleys. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes/southern Canada tonight, providing clear skies and a diminishing breeze. There will likely be some valley fog, but the extent may be limited as lower dewpoints continue to filter into the region. Climatology and examination of Latest HREF supports the idea of patchy dense fog in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 between 06Z- 13Z. Lows will drop back into the 50s (40s in the normal cold spots) over central and northern areas, with lower 60s over the far south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure will be overhead Tuesday with mainly clear skies and very low PWAT air for late August (of 0.5 to 0.75 of an inch). Should provide for a warm day with very tolerable humidity. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result, above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the period. Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will move out of the lower Gr Lakes into the airspace later today and overnight bringing widespread VFR. Patchy fog and low clouds will once again be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning. The clouds and fog will burn off quickly with VFR expected in all areas by mid to late morning. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR. Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible. Thu-Sat...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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