Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 070005 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 805 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 23Z REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE...AS BLYR BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD AMTS OVR 1 INCH BTWN 00Z-06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT. EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND AND A NEARLY CALM WIND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A MAINLY RAIN-FREE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THRU EARLY PM. WARMING TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA DURING THE PM HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LKLY PUSH A LINE OF TSRA INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK TUES EVENING. HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 8H TEMPS TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SENT 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ADJUSTED TAFS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LARGEST STORMS SE OF UNV. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER THURS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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