Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280557 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 157 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will stay in place over the western Atlantic, bringing very warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region through much of the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A mostly clear and warm night underway across central Pa beneath building upper lvl ridge. Main issue will be some patchy fog across the south central mtns, where sig rain fell yesterday. Temps on track to bottom out from around 60f in the coolest valleys of the north, to arnd 70f in Lancaster/Harrisburg.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Subtropical ridge builds nwwd into Pa on Sat with 500mb height anomalies reaching 2SD across southeast Pa. The assoc warm temps aloft should suppress convection across the se counties Sat aftn. However, sct diurnal tsra again appear likely across the nw half of the state. Thermodynamic/kinematic profiles appear very similar to those on Friday, with moderate sfc-based cape of 1500-2500 j/kg and weak low-mid level shear, suggesting pulse-type convection and a low risk of organized svr wx. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Summertime upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states is forecast to peak around 29/00z with above normal heights returning to normal by early next week. Temperatures should follow a similar trajectory with positive temp departures trending modestly lower/toward climatology into the first week of June. The tropical disturbance /Invest AL912016/ approaching the Southeast U.S. coast will add additional moisture to an already humid/unstable airmass in place through Memorial day weekend. Some interaction between the tropical disturbance and mid latitude trough crossing the Central Appalachians likely favors the greatest pcpn risk/potential pcpn coverage Sunday night into Memorial Day (Monday) with a decreasing chance for rain into Tuesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in broad agreement in a dry period of weather from Tuesday into Wednesday before pcpn risk gradually increases into the second half of next week. Heights are forecast to rise a bit around the end of the period before the large scale pattern slowly shifts toward a western ridge/eastern trough configuration by June 5th as depicted by the 27/00z NAEFS and ECENS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridge of high pressure remains in control, keeping a genuine summertime weather pattern in place. Vsby reductions to MVFR more likely tonight with humidity increasing...with a few areas of IFR fog mainly confined to places that receive rain today. Any reducing conditions will lift between 13Z to 15Z. There will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. OUTLOOK... Sat...Early am low cigs/vsby possible. Isold pm tsra impacts. Sun...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly nw half. Mon...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly se half. Tue and Wed...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru

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