Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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819 FXUS61 KCTP 240319 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1119 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As an upper level ridge builds over the eastern US we could see brief period of freezing rain Friday morning than a rapid warm up. Our mid-tropospheric heights and temperatures will be slightly above normal into next week. A few week systems could bring showers to the region but at this time the pattern does not suggest any significant rain events. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Under clear skies temperatures have faded away rapidly. Many locations have fallen into the 20s. Difficult to display this consistently and collaboratively in our grids. Satellite imagery shows a larger area of deep cold cloud tops over Michigan and leading cirrus over Ohio. Clouds are coming and behind them some rainfall is coming. Due to the cold air in the boundary layer the rain will likely start as freezing rain over northern and some central areas. Farther south less QPF is forecast and later in time so less likely they will see freezing rain. The HRRR and its coarser twin the RAP show the precipitation coming in slower with each run. Likely most areas will not see any precipitation much before 4 to 6 AM. In with 0.01 to about 0.10 inches of QPF a light glaze is possible before 8 AM in northern and central areas. Most of the region in the advisory for freezing rain could see a light glaze this morning. If and where it rains. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... There will be a lingering threat for isolated freezing rain in the 8 AM to 10 AM timeframe in some locations and perhaps 11 AM in colder areas of our northeastern areas. But the forecast rapid warm up and the March sun angles should help reduce this fast. One might not see the sun but the shortwave energy will reach roads and walks. The chance of rain diminishes during the day. There should be a very rapid warm up by late morning and into the afternoon. Winter will have exited stage East and it may be along time before we see any significantly cold weather again. High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower 60s. Warmest in the south/southwest. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge over the mid Atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather into Saturday. Lows Friday night into Saturday should range from the upper 40s to low 50s. There could be light rain showers on Saturday but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should move into the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low. Have adjusted POPs for timing and intensity. QPF remains variable but possible wet period Sunday into Monday. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mid level cloud is on the increase along with surface winds veering to 90-140 degrees. Light precip will move across the region between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday. Conditions will remain generally MVFR even through the precip times. Possibly a brief period of IFR in KBFD and KJST from 10-14Z. Precip ends by 18z in all locations with increasing ceilings. Outlook... Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.
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&& .CLIMATE... Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites: MDT: 14 in 1934 IPT: 8 in 1906 BFD: 5 in 1959 AOO: 15 in 1960 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...DeVoir/Evanego/Tyburski CLIMATE...

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