Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 152337 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 737 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front will push through the region tonight. Blustery and cool weather is in store for Monday. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Tuesday, then continue to gradually rise to well above normal right into this upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds east over Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states bringing an extended period of dry conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The cold front extends from just east of Wellsville NY down to between Indiana and Johnstown. A narrow cold frontal rain band is just out ahead of the and is causing briefly gusty winds and rainshowers. The HRRR shows the line continuing quickly SE while diminishing in intensity as cooler air begins to downslope into the forecast area. QPF should be on the low side, a tenth of an inch or less in most areas where the rain moves through this evening. After the front clears the area this evening, the cold NW flow will make quite a dramatic difference in the temps, and especially the apparent temps considering a brisk breeze from the WNW overnight. After being so warm, the drop to much below normal temps and cold cross-lake flow...strato cu and sprinkles/light showers will be a shock. Min temps early Monday will vary from the U30s to L40s across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands, to the lower 50s in the SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... For Monday, we expect to see maxes about 5-10F below normal with highs ranging from the U40s to L50s across the mtns, to around 60F in the SE. As the mid-level thermal trough crosses the region Monday, isolated to scattered instability (and lake effect) showers will occur across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands, with just some sprinkles accompanying expanding MDT cu clouds in the afternoon elsewhere. The NW wind gusting between 20-25 mph will trim another 8-10 degrees off what the air temp should feel like on our skin. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the upper level trough deepens as it moves eastward, cold air, with readings of around 6C at 850 mb will move over the region by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with readings in the mid 30s. Frost across much of Central and Northern PA remains likely with even sub- freezing conditions across the perennial cold spots INVOF KBFD. For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front is pushing through KBFD at 22Z, accompanied by a narrow line of showers and a wind shift from southwest to northwest. Linear extrapolation and latest HRRR indicate fropa will occur between 00Z-01Z at KJST/KUNV/KAOO/KIPT and around 03Z at KMDT/KLNS. Low level moisture ascending the western mountains in wake of front should produce MVFR cigs at KBFD and KJST the rest of the night into Monday morning. Elsewhere, the drying effect of a downsloping northwest flow should result in predominantly VFR conditions through tonight. High pressure will build into the region Monday, bringing clearing skies and gusty northwest winds. Model soundings indicate lingering MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST will give way VFR conditions by around 16Z. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog possible. Wed-Sat...A few hours of patchy dense valley fog is possible each morning, otherwise No sig wx expected for the bulk of the time as a large are of high pressure builds east over the region. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Lambert

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