Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 311959 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 359 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT. YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID- LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW. THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE. TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...DANGELO

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