Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151025 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 625 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A boundary has formed just south of a northeast to southwesterly tilted trough just south and east of central PA. Along this trough precipitation continues to move to the east. the 10Z satellite shows to separate bands of clouds. One is focused along the trough to the south and the other is due to the low level jet streaming through the northwest. Temps have dropped through the Northwest but have remained in the mid to upper 60s along the Susquehanna. With all the cloud cover the development of fog has been stifled, however there is some evidence in the GOES 16 Fog and nighttime microphysics products. The weak trough will have moved to the east with the latest HRRR showing enough instability for a slight chance for showers through the northwest. The large upper level low that these successive troughs are stemming from will meander to the east as the longwave trough moves in that directions and high pressure builds in late tonight into tomorrow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ceilings should continue to gradually lower through the predawn hours and bottom out in the LMVFR to LIFR range around daybreak before slowly improving toward midday. Model guidance is on the same page with this thinking. Periods of light rain are most likely over the southeast 1/4 of the airspace into the early-mid afternoon with secondary area of showers possibly developing over the far northwest airspace by late in the day. Any pcpn will be isolated to scattered at best so will limit mention in 15/06z TAFs. .OUTLOOK... Wed...VFR. No sig wx. Thu-Fri...VFR. Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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