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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 151025
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
625 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the
region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather
will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches
the area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A boundary has formed just south of a northeast to southwesterly
tilted trough just south and east of central PA. Along this
trough precipitation continues to move to the east. the 10Z
satellite shows to separate bands of clouds. One is focused
along the trough to the south and the other is due to the low
level jet streaming through the northwest. Temps have dropped
through the Northwest but have remained in the mid to upper 60s
along the Susquehanna. With all the cloud cover the development
of fog has been stifled, however there is some evidence in the
GOES 16 Fog and nighttime microphysics products. The weak trough
will have moved to the east with the latest HRRR showing enough
instability for a slight chance for showers through the
northwest. The large upper level low that these successive
troughs are stemming from will meander to the east as the
longwave trough moves in that directions and high pressure
builds in late tonight into tomorrow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants
of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain over the region over the region into
Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of
another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great
Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level
closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and
bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This
will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold
front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday
morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended
temperatures upward.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ceilings should continue to gradually lower through the predawn
hours and bottom out in the LMVFR to LIFR range around daybreak
before slowly improving toward midday. Model guidance is
on the same page with this thinking. Periods of light rain are
most likely over the southeast 1/4 of the airspace into the
early-mid afternoon with secondary area of showers possibly
developing over the far northwest airspace by late in the day.
Any pcpn will be isolated to scattered at best so will limit
mention in 15/06z TAFs.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...VFR. No sig wx.

Thu-Fri...VFR. Sct Tstm impacts likely.

Sat...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl