Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
171 FXUS61 KCTP 100836 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 436 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal temperatures into mid July * Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of producing isolated wind damage today (Thursday) and Friday * Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week with the strongest wet signals on Sunday and Monday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 07Z MRMS continues to show rain showers lingering along and to the east of I-81. Elsewhere, rain-free conditions should prevail for the remainder of the morning. Partial clearing, calm wind, and abundant low level moisture will support fog formation which may be dense in spots particularly across the northwest 3/4 of CPA. For the most part, the forecast remains on repeat with another seasonably warm and humid day ahead with a mix of sun/clouds and diurnal isolated to scattered thunderstorm downpours. The heavy rain/flash flood signal backs off with level 1 excessive rain risk confined only to the Lower Susquehanna Valley where recent rounds of heavy rainfall (2-3+ inches in the past 72hr) have significantly lowered FFG values. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level troughing shifting east northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating. Ongoing moderate CAPE/weakly sheared enviro may become conducive for an isolated damaging wind gusts in the strongest cores, before convective activity weakens/dissipates later this evening after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will generally be in the 80-85F range with lows 60-70F. Mainly clear to partly cloudy with areas of fog expected again late tonight through the predawn early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Despite the absence of a pronounced focusing/triggering mechanism for CI, diurnal heating of a seasonably warm, moist and weakly capped airmass will result in more isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. Although precipitable water values look to trend lower vs. previous days, there will still be at least a marginal risk for a few water-loaded downbursts and localized heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Wet signal strength likely peaks Sunday into Monday which appears tied to a frontal system progressing eastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through CPA. There is increasing confidence in a 48hr or two-day break in the rainy summer pattern next Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is reflected in the latest medium range models and ensemble guidance which shows sfc high pressure/upper level ridge moving into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system. Temperatures will remain firmly in summer mode trending near to above (+5-10F) the historical average moving into 2H of July. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light showers remain from MDT to LNS. With VFR at MDT but MVFR at LNS. Only slow changes are expected. High clouds should limit the potential for widespread radiation fog early this morning, but moisture pooling as a result of recent rains could still lead to some fog/low ceiling potential. At this point, the best chance for radiation fog will be BFD, JST and IPT where at least some clearing may arrive in before daybreak. Have indicated at least a period of MVFR restrictions at all airfields tonight, but confidence remains fairly low in the extent and duration of such impacts. The highest probability of IFR (or perhaps lower) visibilities will be at LNS and IPT. Outlook... Thu...Restrictions possible in scattered PM storms. Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south. Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely. Mon...Still storms around.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert AVIATION...Guseman/Gartner