Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180216 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 916 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through Thursday, bringing fair skies but cold temperatures. Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb above normal over the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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GOES16 showing a shallow layer of orographic stratocu clinging to the spine of the Alleghenies this evening. Model soundings show inversion heights falling further overnight, as ridge axis builds over the state. Thus, expect clearing skies over the western mountains and continued clear skies elsewhere overnight. Warming temps aloft and a westerly breeze will likely balance radiational cooling in most spots with temps nearly steady or slowing falling over much of the area. However, suspect some protected valley locations that decouple will see temps falling to near zero due to the fresh snow cover and clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Large scale subsidence between upper low passing off the east coast and shortwave diving across the Grt Lks will provide fair weather across central Pa Thursday. Mostly sunny skies expected for the bulk of the forecast area. However, a surge of increasing low level moisture ahead of approaching shortwave will likely cause increasing cloudiness across the northwest mountains by afternoon. Model soundings indicating a well mixed boundary layer to 925mb Thursday afternoon. Mixing down ensemble mean temps of around -10C from this layer should translate to max temps from the low 20s over the highest terrain of the northwest, to the low 30s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings indicate Thursday will become quite breezy, with west winds gusting to between 25-30kts across the southwest portion of the forecast area and slightly lower winds over the northeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week will bring mild and dry weather to the area late in the week. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week. Did slow the front down some, based on new models. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... There continues to be some lingering MVFR over my western higher elevation terminals with even some very light snow causing visibilities under 2 miles at JST. Drier air will limit the extent of the low clouds moving out of the mountains, but these high elevation sites may be stubborn to improve despite an overall fair weather pattern. It will be breezy with gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Outlook... Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy. Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Dry and colder weather into mid week will form additional ice as stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner HYDROLOGY...

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