Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220403 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1203 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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MIDNIGHT... CLOUD SHIELD BREAKING UP AND SLIDING TO THE EAST. THERE IS A BACK EDGE OVER THE WRN HIGHLANDS. WHILE THE BACK EDGE MAY NOT CONTINUE STEADILY OR COHERENTLY...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIP ENDING AROUND 06Z STILL LOOKING GOOD. OB SITES ALL HAVE VERY HIGH CIGS AT THIS TIME...SO ANY FURTHER RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE MEASURABLE. FOG WILL TRY TO FORM OVERR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT DRIER AIR ALREADY UDNER THE CLOUDS AND EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PREV... LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEFORE DECREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL THEN...THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WORKING FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AT 03Z TOWARD THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 06Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS /ESP ON THE RIDGETOPS/. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /SE OF THE RAIN AREA/ INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY JOINING EVERYONE ELSE IN THE 40S FOR LOW TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MSTR KEPT POPS AOB 20 PCT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB+/ WILL BUILD UNDER A DEVELOPING LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AHEAD OF RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING QUITE CHILLY TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING...WHERE A FREEZE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. A /WELL COORDINATED/ FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE...WITH SCT FROST EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE THE WINDS...THOUGH LIGHT...REMAINING JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. THE COLD AIR IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY MODERATING TEMPS ON SAT...AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 60S UNDER FULL SUN. NOT QUITE AS CHILLY FOR SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES...UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NW MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY MARKS BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM-UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS /HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY/ WILL BE OVER THE NW WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SE. SLOW EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY TAKES RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WEAKENS...WITH JET STREAM RETREATING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL STRETCH A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE W-E...AND LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NW. WE/LL REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE FRONT IN A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN...KEEPING DAILY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 80S SE...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SE. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06-16Z WHICH WILL SHIFT THE LARGE SCALE FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING MVFR OVER THE LAURELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK AND DIMINISH LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...BUT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/RXR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/RXR SHORT TERM...GARTNER/RXR LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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