Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230559 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 159 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF 05Z. RAD COOLING UNDER A MCLEAR SKY AND LGT WIND WILL RESULT IN FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MORE PERSISTENT NWRLY BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT WILL MENTION AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ALL THE WAY INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. PROSPECTS FOR FROST APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING...AS DWPTS AT 05Z ARE STILL RUNNING ARND 40F. MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR SOMERSET CO EARLY. IN GENERAL...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L/M40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVR PA LATER TODAY. THE RESULTING LACK OF MIXING COULD DELAY THE FOG BURN OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. AFTER THE FOG LIFTS...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT A MUCH MILDER DAY THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS HIGHS BTWN 65-70F FROM NW TO SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MSLP ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY DUE TO A BLOCKING 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE AND DRY MIDLEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE EXTENT OF DIURNAL VALLEY FOG. EXPECT PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND EC AND CANADIAN MODELS DIVERGE BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD/T BE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS DECREASED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT AND THU TO AT LEAST KMDT AND KLNS. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. THU...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF -RA/DZ PSBL. FRI-SAT...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...ROSS

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