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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 082000
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
H5 TROUGH MOVG ESEWD FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS A
COLD FRONTAL BAND/LLVL THERMAL RIBBON SEWD ACRS THE AREA TGNT.
LGT SNOW HAS REMAIN CONFINED OVER THE NW MTNS/N OF I-80. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE ACRS WRN PA INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THE LATEST 12Z
HIRES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA. DOWNSLOPE E OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PCPN FROM THE CNTRL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION INTO THE
MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY. SOME MINOR ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN MARGINAL ESPECIALLY AFTER A VERY MILD
AFTN IN MOST AREAS /OUTSIDE OF THE NW MTNS./ SPEAKING OF
MILD...MID AFTN TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACRS THE S-CNTRL MTNS INTO THE MID- SUSQ VLY. EXPECT THE LGT PCPN
TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER OR DISSIPATE INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. INCR MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGS OVER CNTRL AND SRN AREAS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
5-10KT WNW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE LAURELS IN THE
MORNING..AS MSTR ASCENDING THE HIER ELEVATIONS VIA WK UPSLOPE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER EXPECT A DRY BUT
COLDER DAY OVERALL WITH INC MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER SUN INTO SUN
NGT DUE TO LOW-MID LVL WARM AIR/THETAE ADV CROSSING THE GRT LKS IN
ADVANCE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE UPPER GRT LKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR MID WEEK. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPIT RATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME WE ARE PROGGED TO STILL
BE UNDER FAST AND MAINLY FAIR NW FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
DEEP EASTERN CANADA LOW.

BY MIDWEEK DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
EC DEVELOPING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WHICH RESULTS IN A
MORE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WV AND VA ON A TRACK
TO THE NJ COAST. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FLATTER AND FURTHER
SOUTH...WHILE THE 00Z GEFS HAS A STRONGER LOW THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IF THE ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTIONS END UP VERIFYING...A WIDESPREAD
WINTRY MIX LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OUTCOME AS INITIALLY MARGINALLY
COLD AIR CHILLS AND COLDER AIR GETS DRAGGED DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
IF THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION IS THE ONE THAT WORKS OUT...WE WILL
BE COOLER...BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIP OF CONSEQUENCE. STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY.

THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM STILL FAVORS A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER WESTERN NOAM...AND A TROUGH IN OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
SO IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR AN IMMINENT OR EXTENDED WARM UP...IT JUST
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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08/18Z..MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT BFD INTO TNGT ALONG WITH A BAND
OF -SN IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM THE LWR
LKS. DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER VFR CLOUD BASES
ACRS CNTRL AND SERN TAFS INTO THE EVE...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER
OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT RA OR SNOW IS PSBL ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SWD...BUT VISBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD STAY AOA MVFR RANGE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS AT JST OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN
BUT KEPT CIGS AT 010 FOR NOW. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY
SUN MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS -RA/SN SHOWERS PSBL NRN TIER.
TUE...LOW CIGS PSBL EARLY. RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS PSBL TUE NGT.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LKLY IN RAIN/SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL