Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 062056 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 356 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE FULL SUNSHINE IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LACK OF MIXING IS KEEPING US UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL REMAIN FAIR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS DROPPING BACK TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WEAK LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TOWARD NY BY SAT EVENING. THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...MAYBE A COATING TO AN INCH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NY BORDER. SATURDAY WILL START A TEMPERATURE MODERATING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND REACH THE 30S VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BENEATH FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. GENERALLY THE SPREAD IS MINIMAL. THE MOST DISCERNIBLE NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV ENERGY AND WEAK SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATER SAT THRU SUNDAY...BUT WITH SYSTEMS BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE LIMITED WITH NO GULF INFLOW..WATER EQUIVALENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.25 INCH AND 48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS ENDING 00Z TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND GRADUALLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...SRN PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. GEFS AND NAEFS SHOW A BROADER VERSION OF THIS PATTERN INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM THE WRN ATLC NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/CNTRL CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK. ONE TREND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO CONFLUENT FLOW/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE MID ATLC ON TUESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A NWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN FIELD WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRADFORD WHERE AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE...
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THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

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