Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301448 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STILL NO ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR AS OF LATE MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS REGIONWIDE HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SPARK OFF FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL SUGGESTING A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE TYPE DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. SPC PAINTED MUCH OF PA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEY...WHILE HIGH TEMPS STAY CLOSER TO 80F OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST . && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EARLY NIGHTTIME TSRA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE IN THE SCATTERED VARIETY IN THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ...THE LOWER 60S FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WELL-DEFINED APPROX 1010 HPA TRACKS ENE ALONG IT. THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSS PENN SUNDAY AFTERNOON /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/. PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME /TO CENTRAL PA/. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. CERTAINLY...THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TERMINALS ARE NOW VFR AFTER A FEW PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE...AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUBBLE UP IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE TODAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD CROSS INTO FAR NW PA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STALL THE FRONT OVER NRN PA SUNDAY WITH REDUCTIONS LIKELEY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN/TSTMS. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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