Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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431 FXUS61 KCTP 271406 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large ridge of high pressure will reside over Pennsylvania through the weekend bringing very warm and mainly dry weather. A weak cold front will push southeast across the state Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry days will follow for Monday...Tuesday...and the first part of Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A little haze from fog this morning and some high cirrus clouds will lead to a fair weather day. Abundant sunshine and temps climbing to well above normal expected, as an anomalously strong upper level ridge builds northeast across the Mid Atlantic region. Temps will reach lower 90s in the lower Susq valley to mid 80s in the mountains. Dew points have already climbed into the mid and upper 60s this morning and so it will feel hot today. Expect just a speckling of flat cu to form across the Alleghenies of northern and western PA this afternoon. The warm temps aloft will suppress practically any chance of convection, so have maintained POPs near zero.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Another quiet night is in store for tonight with some mid/high clouds beginning to stream in from the west. A weak cold front will bring the chance for showers or thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon/evening - mainly over northern and western sections of the state. Weighted our previous fcst POPs to the latest run of the Superblend and Nat`l Blend across...which yields likely pops for shra/sct tsra across the NW mtns...and isolated to scattered shra/tsra near the Allegheny Front. Little or no chc for precip across the far SE zones late Sunday through 12z Monday. SPC has placed the NW third of our CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe Sunday afternoon and evening...which looks pretty good based on moderate, westerly deep-layer shear and a SW-NE ribbon of rather impressive MU cape of 2500-3500 j/kg extending from near KELZ and KBFD...to KBTP. Gusty (and highly localized damaging) westerly winds will accompany the storms in the 18Z Sunday - 01Z Monday period in the MRGL Risk area. Above normal temps will continue on Sunday with similar maxes (or perhaps just a few deg f lower than Sat`s across the Susq Valley). Highs expected to range from the mid 80s (mtns) to near 90F in the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to an upper-level trough over the northeast by next Thursday and Friday. As a result, above-normal temperatures early in the week will transition to near...then likely a few to several deg below normal by late next week. The weakening cold front (noted in the Short Term period above) will push slowly SE through the Commonwealth Sunday night into Monday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers. The frontal boundary is expected to wash out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day Monday. Abundant low-level moisture...mesoscale convergence and some orographic lift/heating via the East to NE llvl flow regime across the mtns of SW PA will focus the best chc for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon. Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry...with generally light wind and just some patchy early morning fog throughout the valleys of central and northern PA. A second...and likely stronger cold front should push SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday through Saturday (over central and SE PA)...but may hold in the mid to upper 60s acrs the NW mtns Thursday and Friday...as a deep upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Patchy fog will dissipate by 13z. VFR flying expected into Sunday. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the northwest 1/2 airspace Sunday afternoon along/ahead of a cold front advancing eastward across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley. A few storms may produce strong to marginally severe sfc wind gusts. Outlook... Mon-Tue...Predominately VFR with isolated P.M. TS possible. Wed...Scattered TS probable with cold fropa. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/Lambert NEAR TERM...Watson/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Evanego AVIATION...Steinbugl

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