Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 271806
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
206 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure over southern Michigan early this morning will track
across Lake Ontario this afternoon. This system will keep cool and
wet weather across the Keystone state today. Some snow will mix
with the rain across north central PA at times this morning. Milder
weather will occur this weekend, as high pressure builds across
the southeast states. A weak cold front from the upper Great Lakes
may bring a chance of showers to the area for the later part of
the weekend. However, most of the weekend will be on the dry side.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steady rains continue across the northern mountains late this
morning. Temperatures should be above freezing for all but the
highest elevations as of 1030 am... with even locations above
2000 ft above freezing by noon. Farther south rains have become
spotty... with a band of more concentrated showers located along a
trough moving east across western Pa. These showers will move
across central Pa during the early to mid afternoon. Model
soundings continue to show a little elevated instability across
central and southern Pa into this afternoon... so an isolated
rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out with this band of showers
mainly for areas along and south of I-80. With east-to-
southeasterly low- level flow / cold air damming pattern in place
surface temperatures will be low to rise today... with highs
reaching the 40s to lower 50s later today. Previous discussion is
One band of snow and rain moved across the north central area
earlier. Another large area of precipitation moving across the
north again at this time. Snow grids look good. Expect the area
that might have picked up some accumulation to be from near BFD to
northwest of IPT.
After about 13Z, expect the precipitation to become lighter and
less widespread, and temeratures warm enough that the precipitation
will be in the form of rain.
As the low moves across the eastern part of Lake Ontario later
this afternoon, that winds will shift more to the west, and the
rain will taper to just a few showers.
Main thing going for the rain early today is the strong warm
advection. Did not make any large changes to the fcst, may add
thunder to the fcst, if it holds together.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass behind the departing low is not as cold as what we
had ahead of it. A few rain showers possible tonight and early
Friday morning. Minor adjustments made to the fcst package.
The main thing will be the wind early Friday. Downstream blocking
should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough
and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the
Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the formation of a
triple point low deepening along the coast into the Canadian
Maritimes by Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trend has been for slightly milder conditions on Saturday and
less chance of showers, especially across the south. Did edge
temperatures up a little, and decrease POPS some.
For Sunday, still some chance of showers, as the next front
drops southward toward PA.
High pressure builds back into the area from the north and west
early next week. Temperatures should average normal to above
normal. Main changes was to bring temperatures up a little
here and there, and take out low chance POPS.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers will continue across the area through mid-afternoon with
widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions in heavier
showers or areas of fog. Most of the showers will be east of the
area by early this evening with conditions improving to VFR east
of the mountains at MDT and LNS while MVFR conditions linger at
UNV and AOO and IFR conditions persist in the mountains at BFD and
JST. A few sprinkles or flurries could occur at BFD overnight.
Conditions will improve to mostly MVFR at JST and BFD by Friday
afternoon with VFR elsewhere. Winds will be from the east-south at
5 to 15 kts this afternoon shifting to southwest then west-
northwest at 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts tonight
continuing through Friday.
Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W.
Mon...No sig wx expected.
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