Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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224 FXUS61 KCTP 131730 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX OVR S QUEBEC WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED GRIDS FOR TEMPS/WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR QUICK LOOK AND ACCIDENT ON I78 IN LEBANON COUNTY WHICH HAS EM PERSONNEL WORKING ON SITE OF ACCIDENT. PREVIOUS: ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT VALUES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN JUST ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO A BALMY MID-TEENS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD DAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. COVER UP WELL IF OUTDOORS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OF SO. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW HURON CONNECTION SNOW BANDS. ONE BAND MADE INTO STATE COLLEGE AROUND 9 AM FOR A QUICK COATING. THIS BAND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MORE FOCUSED SNOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SNOW IN NORTHWESTER AREAS HAS BEEN QUITE LIMITED. THE NCAR 3KM EFS AND THE HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND HAVE LIMITED SNOW IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FORECASTS. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND HAS NOT BEEN A PROLIFIC LAKE AND MOUNTAIN SNOW PRODUCER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP INDICATING THIS. HRRR AT TIMES SHOWS A POTENTIAL MODEST BAND IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING. COLD WILL BE THE ISSUE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MODELS NOT VERY BIG IN SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME HINTS OF SNOW EARLY IN THE HRRR AND SREF IN SW MOUNTAINS. COMBINED WITH THE FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH...LES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THREATS WILL DIMINISH. THE HIGH SHOULD DECOUPLE SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WITH SNOW COVER A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MASSIVE 1032 TO 1036 HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND IS PARKED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THE WINDS DIE AND THE WINDCHILL ISSUE DIMINISH. BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD VALENTINES AT LEAST OUTDOORS. THE EVENING SHOULD STILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. VERY COLD START TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY....BUT THE HIGH MOVES OFF FAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW SUNDAY LIKELY WILL BE EARLY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARCTIC AIR HAS BROUGHT COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. SNOW SQUALLS ARE COMMON IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH IMPACTS ON KJST AND KBFD. SOME OF THE STRONGER LAKE STREAMERS AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER IN SOUTHEASTERN PA. SO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GOOD GUST SPREADS TOO WHICH AFFECT TAKEOFF/LANDINGS. GUSTS OVER 30KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IFR AND MVFR MOST OF WEST. VFR WITH TIME MVFR IN CENTRAL AREAS. MOSTLY VFR WITH TIMES MVFR WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BE MUCH NICER SUNDAY...THOUGH A TAD COLD. NEED A HEATED JOY STICK. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT SO THE PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW AND ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR. MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS SE. WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037- 041-042. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017- 018-024-033. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024- 033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...GRUMM

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