Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140648 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 248 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS COVERS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS WELL. TEMPS ALREADY WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MANY SPOTS. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. UNV AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...WHERE BFD SHOULD GO MVFR AT ANY TIME...AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z. UNV/S STRATOCU IS UPPER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER OTHER AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY JST...AOO AND IPT. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. FAIR...MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. MON...NO SIG WX. MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. WED - THU...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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