Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271806 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over southern Michigan early this morning will track across Lake Ontario this afternoon. This system will keep cool and wet weather across the Keystone state today. Some snow will mix with the rain across north central PA at times this morning. Milder weather will occur this weekend, as high pressure builds across the southeast states. A weak cold front from the upper Great Lakes may bring a chance of showers to the area for the later part of the weekend. However, most of the weekend will be on the dry side. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Steady rains continue across the northern mountains late this morning. Temperatures should be above freezing for all but the highest elevations as of 1030 am... with even locations above 2000 ft above freezing by noon. Farther south rains have become spotty... with a band of more concentrated showers located along a trough moving east across western Pa. These showers will move across central Pa during the early to mid afternoon. Model soundings continue to show a little elevated instability across central and southern Pa into this afternoon... so an isolated rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out with this band of showers mainly for areas along and south of I-80. With east-to- southeasterly low- level flow / cold air damming pattern in place surface temperatures will be low to rise today... with highs reaching the 40s to lower 50s later today. Previous discussion is below. One band of snow and rain moved across the north central area earlier. Another large area of precipitation moving across the north again at this time. Snow grids look good. Expect the area that might have picked up some accumulation to be from near BFD to northwest of IPT. After about 13Z, expect the precipitation to become lighter and less widespread, and temeratures warm enough that the precipitation will be in the form of rain. As the low moves across the eastern part of Lake Ontario later this afternoon, that winds will shift more to the west, and the rain will taper to just a few showers. Main thing going for the rain early today is the strong warm advection. Did not make any large changes to the fcst, may add thunder to the fcst, if it holds together. time. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The airmass behind the departing low is not as cold as what we had ahead of it. A few rain showers possible tonight and early Friday morning. Minor adjustments made to the fcst package. The main thing will be the wind early Friday. Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Trend has been for slightly milder conditions on Saturday and less chance of showers, especially across the south. Did edge temperatures up a little, and decrease POPS some. For Sunday, still some chance of showers, as the next front drops southward toward PA. High pressure builds back into the area from the north and west early next week. Temperatures should average normal to above normal. Main changes was to bring temperatures up a little here and there, and take out low chance POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers will continue across the area through mid-afternoon with widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions in heavier showers or areas of fog. Most of the showers will be east of the area by early this evening with conditions improving to VFR east of the mountains at MDT and LNS while MVFR conditions linger at UNV and AOO and IFR conditions persist in the mountains at BFD and JST. A few sprinkles or flurries could occur at BFD overnight. Conditions will improve to mostly MVFR at JST and BFD by Friday afternoon with VFR elsewhere. Winds will be from the east-south at 5 to 15 kts this afternoon shifting to southwest then west- northwest at 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts tonight continuing through Friday. Outlook... Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W. Mon...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.