Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 282223
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
623 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday
and Monday. The heavy rain and deep tropical moisture from the
tropical cyclone nearing SC tonight should stay more along the
coast this weekend. However, some constant moderate rainfall is
possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Sunday Night. High
pressure will build into the region early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Convection is waning with very few returns left on the radar.
Still a few things popping up over the NW and Laurels. But, the
overall trend continues with most of the area dry and the sky
beginning to clear. Tweaks this update were mainly to temps, and
to POPs so they fit tighter to radar in the first hour/two.
Current convection already looks to be on the downswing. Only very
isolated TSRA at this point. Expect most radar returns to be gone
before sunset. Capping aloft and loss of heating should keep
anything else from forming through the rest of the night. some fog
is again possible mainly in the valleys where it rained today.
But, there will probably be enough of a time period of
drying/evaporation this evening before we totally stratify and
stabilize to keep the fog from being widespread. It will be muggy.
Mins in the 60s over all the area, much like July.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday looks like a copy of Sat in many ways. The heating will
lead to isolated/scattered convection popping off the ridges.
However, some more support may be nearing from the west before
sunset and could help the diurnal convection last longer. Any
moisture from the TC to our south should remain well to the SE of
the area Sunday. Temps look a bit cooler on Sunday afternoon than
Sat - just a bit more cloud cover and just slightly lower 8H
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still looks like the highest pops would be Sunday night. A plume
of tropical moisture lifting up the coast could bring a brief shot
of heavy rain to the eastern areas Sunday Night.
Models have things clearing out on Monday.
Looking warm but mainly dry for the period Tuesday into Wed...as
the cold front moves se of our area.
Chance of showers and storms increase later Thursday into
Friday...as a cold front moves se. Cooler weather to follow
For Monday into Friday...just made minor changes to the
Took the superblend and made minor adjustments to next
Saturday. Looks like a weak wave may lift ne along the cold
front. Adjusted superblend pops a little to fit in.
Pattern trying to set up for the week after next would
favor a cooler and wetter cycle again.
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large ridge of high pressure remains in control, keeping a
summertime weather pattern in place through Sunday. Showers over
the mountains now should die off before or around sunset. expect
more of the same on Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will
push across the region Sunday night and Monday and will help to
enhance the shower coverage. Rain with a slight tropical
connection may slide across MDT/LNS Sun night.
Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss.
Tue-Thu...No sig wx.