Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290849 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 449 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE DAY WILL START BRIGHT AND COLD BUT STRONG LATE MARCH SUN SHOULD HELP US REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN SATURDAY WHEN SOME LOCATIONS WERE CLOSE TO THEIR ALL TIME COLDEST MAX TEMPS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MY WESTERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ENSEMBLE QPF OF .20" OR LESS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WARM SKIN TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE OF DEG EITHER SIDE OF 30.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE USUAL POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT USUALLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NW WILL RUN SOME 10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL. MILDER READINGS OVER THE SE WILL ACTUALLY BE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL HAVE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM BEING STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...AND THE ECMWF BEING WEAKEST AND MOST SOUTH. I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS AND GEFS/SREF 850 TEMPS TO CONFINE SNOW CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. I ALSO DOWNPLAYED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP TO SPEAK OF AT ALL. NAEFSBC CONTINUES TO SHOW A BREAK DOWN IN THE EXTREME COLD PATTERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ERODING THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND EVEN SHOWING A BRIEF SURGE IN UPPER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS OVER THE NERN US ALONG ABOUT THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS MADE TO REMAIN OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOOKING AT LESS WIND AND SNOW TODAY. OVERALL...A SUNNY DAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG/MIST THAT SHOULD FORM DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE REMAINING STRONG WITH GUSTS AT AOO AND MDT...THOUGH THESE WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE MOST AT RISK FROM THIS WILL BE BFD...WHICH COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATO CU BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. THOUGH THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY A LOW PROBABILITY SO HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND PRECEDING...FEW- HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUR AFTERNOON NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU/MARTIN

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