Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
449 FXUS61 KCTP 210314 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1114 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD ADVANCING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. BUMPED POPS UP TO HIGH CHC AND LIKELIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU...A CONTINUATION OF RAISING POPS THAT BEGAN WITH THE DAY SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT..GENERALLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OVERALL...OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BLENDED MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW MTNS TONIGHT... WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S ALREADY AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE. OVERALL PATTERN AND CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SUPPORT FROST FORMATION HOWEVER...SO NO ADVISORY NEEDED. ELSEWHERE...MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DAY 2/THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. GUIDANCE BLEND SUGGESTS DAYTIME READINGS HOLDING IN THE U50S IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE SRN TIER DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS TO CENTRAL PA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME THU NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE AND NO SIG WX. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AT LEAST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO MSTR TO WORK WITH AND PWS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH VIRTUALLY DRY. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR POTENTIAL OF AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS MAY EVEN SEE A FREEZE WITH TEMPS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE HWO. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER SHOT OF MORNING FROST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A WAVY WARM FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHOWERS EDGING IN FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON MON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY INCREASES...BRINGING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERY MILD AND MUGGY AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR TUE-WED...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
11 PM UPDATE... EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA FROM JOHNSTOWN-ALTOONA SOUTHWARD WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. OUTLOOK... FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX. MON...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/RXR LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.