Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 182205 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 505 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days. Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb well above normal over the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. A cold front will move through the area later Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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GOES16 loop at 22Z showing a potent shortwave tracking eastward across the northern Grt Lks, while skies are clear further south across Pa. Linear extrapolation and near term model data indicate the southern edge of cloud shield from shortwave will clip northern Pa overnight, while clear skies persist elsewhere. Expect temperatures to fall back to the upper teens and 20s after sunset this evening. After that, an active westerly breeze and weak warm advection aloft will likely limit radiational cooling, despite the mostly clear skies. SREF temp plumes support this idea, with steady or slowly falling readings indicated between 00Z-12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Variable mid and high clouds will be on tap Friday. Highs will rebound above freezing in most locations, with temps as warm as the mid 40s likely along the MD border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main change was to slow down rain and snow moving out next Tuesday by a few hours. Did take rain and snow out for Saturday night, as we will be between systems, with some ridging. Supported by new EC run. More detail below. High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week will bring mild and dry weather to the area which will last through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of Liq Equiv precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums of snow. Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A shield of MVFR strato-cu over the far north is finally showing signs of mixing out and diminishing. Widespread VFR is the rule elsewhere and will continue at least into Friday. The strong gradient that is bringing the drier air and fair skies will allow for a period of LLWS to the region. Outlook... Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. Tue...MVFR/IFR with snow showers west and north. VFR central and eastern terminals. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry and colder weather tonight will form additional ice as stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff. Flood watch for far southeast into Saturday, given amt of ice in Susquehanna River. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...La Corte HYDROLOGY...

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