Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010849 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 449 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF CWA. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN A STRIPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PROTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CLEARFIELD COUNTY THROUGH CENTRE COUNTY EASTWARD TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS TO REMIND MORNING COMMUTERS TO BE AWARE OF CHANGING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LOOKING AT A BRIEF LULL BEFORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY JET CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS...TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE QUARTER WITH LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MAKES IT...BUT WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ON THE SE COUNTIES. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP... MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/. MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS. MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...RXR

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