Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190016 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 816 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES OF VISIBLE LOOP TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD FROM MY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS FADING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. AT MOST IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SCT TO LCLY BKN LINE OF CUMULUS AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT...ALONG WITH A FEW FAHREHNEIT DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP. AS THE SUN SETS...THIS WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. TONIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG THE NORTHERN PA BORDER. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HOWEVER LINGER ALONG THE NRN BORDER. ALSO..WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH OF PA...ENOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENT MAY REMAIN TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BORDERLINE TEMP/DEWPOINTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST UP NORTH ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WILL TURN SERLY/SRLY HELPING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN FREE..MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FALL-FEELING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE INITIAL RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT TO AROUND 60F SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING ON POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY SLIPPING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE. LOOKS LIKE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR MIDWEEK AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE NO PRECIP AND ONLY SCT CLOUDINESS IN MOST PLACES. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. A PATCH OF LOWER CIGS ARE NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE AT 00Z IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO KBFD LATE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN POSSIBLY KJST LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PRES GRADIENT SUGGESTS A NERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD VIS RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALL MODEL DATA THEN SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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