Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 121359 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 959 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND LAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE AREA OF SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DRIFTED EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS 3C OF WARMING ALOFT /4-5C...INCREASING TO 7-8C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ AND A RELATIVE MIN IN PWAT /AROUND 1.0 INCH/ SPREADS EAST OVER THE CWA AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS OFF ANY CU PRIOR TO REACHING THE TCU STAGE. REMOVED THE RIBBON OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S FOR MOST PLACES. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE N/W WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80F. A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD APPROACH THE NWRN COS AS A 35-40KT LLJET DEVELOPS IN OHIO AND SPREADS INTO NRN PA. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH POPS INCREASING TONIGHT IN THE NW BUT DELAY/SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF POTENTIAL STORMS UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TO NORMAL LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE AREA STAYS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUNDAY AS THE MAIN FRONT HANGS UP IN THE LOWER LAKES. WEAK AND LOW-PREDICTABLITY REMNANT VORTICES WILL FORCE CONVECTION OVER THE SHORT TERM. FOCUS FOR THE BEST CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEIGHT FALLS OF 10DAM ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PUSHES FORCIBLY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR BOTH SUNDAY/DAY2 AND MONDAY/DAY3. THE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE GOOD W-E MOVEMENT TO THEM...BUT TRAINING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE. PWATS INCREASE TO MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 2 INCHES ON MONDAY. THUS...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS LOCAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...3HR FFG IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE APPEAR VERY SUBSTANTIAL...BUT SEVERAL SHOTS OF RAIN WILL DIP THESE VALUES BY MONDAY. WILL NOT MENTION FLOODING IN THE HWO YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR AMONG THE NON-GFS MODELS WITH THE MAIN FRONT DRAGGING ALONG. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE DRIER AIR THROUGH...KEEPING ALL BUT THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY. THE EC DEVELOPS A COHERENT SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND MOVES IT TO OUR W/N ON TUESDAY AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 1003MB. WILL THEREFORE KEEP ON WITH MENTIONS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE GREATEST 850-700 MB TEMP ANOMALIES AND ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AIMED AT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR REGION RESIDING ON THE ACTIVE/EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS DRIVEN SSE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROUGH...PROLONGED HIGH PWAT AIR /AND LIFT BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET/ MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN OVER THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA APPEARS TO DE- AMPLIFY LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TO THE NE. THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS START OUT AOA NORMAL PRECEDING THE CFROPA SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS MONDAY ACROSS THE SE ZONES...THEN COOL TO AT LEAST 4-6F BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME LINGERING 5-6SM HZ WILL OCCUR AT KLNS AND KMDT THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE INCREASING TO P6SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME HIGH END MVFR FG AND HZ IS POSSIBLE MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION TAF SITES. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTS TO THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...BRIEF...MAINLY PM...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD

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