Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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669 FXUS61 KCTP 040547 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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