Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 272220 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 620 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out. Wednesday morning will be quite chilly with lows in the 40s and 50s. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers confined to northern half of central PA, so shaved back POPs for remainder of the evening to these areas. HRRR supports this as well. Drier air to the west will bring any showers quickly to an end this evening. With clear skies and light winds, look for good radiational cooling for a few hours overnight and by morning temperatures will be in the 40s over the northern half of the area and 50s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure provides a quiet weather day with mild afternoon temperatures with low humidities for the afternoon hours, making for very comfortable weather for late June. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Did not make a lot of large changes on this package. Warm advection on Thursday could result in an isolated strong storm, mainly along the NY border. Fcst dewpoints not all that high for late June, so think activity will be limited. Overall the pattern is becoming more humid, more like one often gets in late June into late August. The main thing is that while 500 mb height rise into next week, the combination of a weakness across the eastern part of the country at 500 mb, wet ground, and higher dewpoints, will result in some showers and storms at times next week. Prior to this, a weak cold front will move into the area by the weekend. Most likely this weak cold front will move across the area on Saturday but the front is progged to be weak, so temperatures will not change much, just a bit of a break in the humidity. Did go with a dry period Sunday Night into early Tue. Went with some showers and storms after this, but did adjust superblend POPS some to fit with the pattern and others. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Radar loop at 21Z is showing scattered showers across northern Pa associated with a passing trough of low pressure. These showers are unlikely to cause any restrictions and should dissipate shortly after sunset. High pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley will supply widespread VFR conditions and light wind tonight and Wednesday. Some patchy valley fog is possible around dawn, but is unlikely to affect any central Pa airfields. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa. Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible. Sun...Still a chance of showers and storms, mainly during the first half of Sunday. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Ross/Fitzgerald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.