Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241803 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING WIND. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONG OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 68-69F. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELPS TO SLACKEN THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE WEST TO SW BREEZE WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH /IN THE 4-6 KTS RANGE/ TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN LATE. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES /AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL PENN LOCATIONS. NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AT ALL CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND NORTH OF KIPT. TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...LAMBERT

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