Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171606 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1206 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CIRRUS OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE FRESHENED INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...WHICH ARE ABOUT 7-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS SAME TIME WEDNESDAY. SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS BEGINNING TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY NWWD...REACHING THE THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM KHAR TO SCHUYLKILL CTY LATER TODAY AS SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU. TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING. THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN- MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE 500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8. OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THEWIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY. FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /MAINLY NW HALF/. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT

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