Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241545 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN. STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS. PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST. AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN-OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF 30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL. TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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