Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020839 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 439 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY. HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/ PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE WHOLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE IMPROVING. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

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