Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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547 FXUS61 KCTP 250340 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1140 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Batch of shra/tsra assoc with MCV weakening as it encounters a more stable air mass across eastern Pa. Linear extrapolation and HRRR suggest the last of the convection should be exiting the eastern counties arnd midnight. The rest of the night should be dry across the large majority of central Pa, as large scale subsidence/upper ridging overspreads the state in wake of MCV. Have added patchy fog to the late night fcst across those regions that have received rainfall this evening. It will be a muggy night with dwpts and overnight lows close to 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Ens mean 8h temps support max temps Monday from the u80s across the Allegheny Plateau, to the m90s across the Susq Valley. A swrly flow ahead of approaching cold front will draw up some of the most humid air we have seen this summer with dwpts in the low 70s ovr much of the area. The combination of heat and humidity warrants a heat advisory across the se counties for the warmest hours of the afternoon. A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the SREF and GEFS pump CAPEs up to between 1500-2000J with a not unimpressive LLJ sliding into the forecast area. Any rain Monday will be very welcome, but probably not enough to put a dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been experiencing for the last several weeks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Just a few showers left across the southeast for another hour or so. 03Z TAFS sent. Otherwise most of the night will be dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps some fog and haze just before sunrise. More showers and storms will be possible on Monday, highest chance for strong storms would be to the east, given timing of the cold front. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR. THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high in both IPT and MDT for today is 96F. So far in Harrisburg today the high has been 95 degrees. So far in Williamsport today the high has been 94 degrees. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ027-028-035- 036-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Martin

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