Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 250340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1140 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late Monday.
High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm
throughout the period.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Batch of shra/tsra assoc with MCV weakening as it encounters a
more stable air mass across eastern Pa. Linear extrapolation and
HRRR suggest the last of the convection should be exiting the
eastern counties arnd midnight. The rest of the night should be
dry across the large majority of central Pa, as large scale
subsidence/upper ridging overspreads the state in wake of MCV.
Have added patchy fog to the late night fcst across those regions
that have received rainfall this evening. It will be a muggy
night with dwpts and overnight lows close to 70F.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Ens mean 8h temps support max temps Monday from the u80s across
the Allegheny Plateau, to the m90s across the Susq Valley. A swrly
flow ahead of approaching cold front will draw up some of the
most humid air we have seen this summer with dwpts in the low 70s
ovr much of the area. The combination of heat and humidity
warrants a heat advisory across the se counties for the warmest
hours of the afternoon.
A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an
increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some
strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the SREF and GEFS
pump CAPEs up to between 1500-2000J with a not unimpressive LLJ
sliding into the forecast area.
Any rain Monday will be very welcome, but probably not enough to
put a dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been
experiencing for the last several weeks.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting
into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical
ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus.
Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and
mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress
Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind
weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat
abv normal within a generally zonal flow.
Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Just a few showers left across the southeast for another hour
03Z TAFS sent.
Otherwise most of the night will be dry with VFR conditions.
Perhaps some fog and haze just before sunrise.
More showers and storms will be possible on Monday, highest
chance for strong storms would be to the east, given timing
of the cold front.
High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.
TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR.
THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Record high in both IPT and MDT for today is 96F.
So far in Harrisburg today the high has been 95 degrees.
So far in Williamsport today the high has been 94 degrees.
Heat Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ027-028-035-
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte