Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020728 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH RECENTLY EXPIRED ACROSS SEVERAL OF OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NE A BIT TODAY THEN SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SERN HALF OF PENN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE AROUND 0.10 ACROSS THE REGION ALONG...AND TO THE SE OF THE RT 220/1-99 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE FAR SE ZONES SHOULD SE AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...CAUSING LINGERING -SHRA TO TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL EDGE INTO NORTHERN PA...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES THERE. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NERLY FLOW AND DEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW OFF THE STILL CHILLY N ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WAY BLW SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/NAM POINT TOWARD HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS THE S TIER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
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&& .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

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