Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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931 FXUS61 KCTP 281955 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 355 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A BAND ABOUT 120 MILES WIDE FROM THE NW MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING BEHIND OVER THE AREA...SO THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING REMAIN DIM. THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COOL AIR JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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